Blogger Interview: Dave Berri Previews the Cavs

Over the past week, many authors have touched on a preview of the Cavaliers written by economist Dave Berri over at the Wages of Wins Journal. Berri, a professor at Southern Utah University and one of the most influential basketball stats writers, annually previews every single team in the NBA. In his first half dozen of teams this year, he decided to extensively analyze the Cleveland Cavs under the title “Is a Championship Parade in the Future of Cleveland?” That is a bold statement to make, especially given that the city of Cleveland is constantly Waiting For Next Year in every single sport.

I had the chance to touch base with Professor Berri through e-mail this week, and he outlined some additional points not mentioned in his recap. For those who have not read it yet, it is a great read although the optimism might be hard for some fans to swallow. Berri uses his formula for wins produced per 48 minutes to show how the Cavaliers are clearly the top team in the NBA this season, and possibly one of the best all-time.

The concept behind Berri’s wins produced per 48 minutes stat is that every single team on average, wins .500 of the time. Given this fact, and the idea that there are always five players on the court, Berri then derived a formula to have the average player in the NBA own a wins produced per 48 minutes of .100. Anything above this number is a productive player that helps a team achieve more wins, while some individuals can actually be in the negative side due to their incredibly inefficient production.

Just for a glimpse at what these stats mean, take a look at his breakdown of the first string for the Cavaliers this upcoming season. This is what leads Berri to say the Cavs are the NBA’s finest and are led by their sensational first string of players:

Potential First String

PG: Maurice Williams [7.1Wins Produced, 0.119 WP48]

SG: Delonte West [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.163 WP48]

SF: LeBron James [27.8 Wins Produced, 0.436 WP48]

PF: Anderson Varejao [8.1 Wins Produced, 0.168 WP48]

C: Shaquille O’Neal [7.9 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48]

Not only are all of those players above average win producers, but Danny Ferry also assembled a team around one of the top superstars in the league in LeBron James. According to Berri, James produced an estimated 27.6 wins this past year. That means that he single-handedly was better than five teams in the NBA last season, and this starting lineup itself produced an estimated 58.2 wins. Even if you gave the Cavaliers a bench that averaged a WP48 of .000, the Cavaliers would clearly be among the top teams in the NBA assuming that all these players remained the same.

What further proves Berri’s analysis is the fact that Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Leon Powe were all above average in their playing time last season and Zydrunas Ilgauskas was awful close at .093. With one of the deepest benches in the league, the Cavs also shatter the Celtics team-high of six players above .100 with eight of their own. What could be done at all to stop them this year?

Now there are two potential problems. Delonte West finished third on the Cavaliers in Wins Produced in 2008-09. As reported, though, he currently is having problems. If West can’t play, Anthony Parker will probably move into the starting line-up. Behind Parker is rookie Daniel Green, who was above average in college last season. So the Cavaliers have depth (as note above). Nevertheless, if West can’t play the entire season Cleveland will be hurt.

And then there is the issue of Shaq. Before the 2010 playoffs begin Shaq will turn 37. In basketball age, that’s ancient. Less than 2% of all seasons played in the NBA since 1977-78 have been played by people 37 or older. In fact, only 46 times has a player logged 1,500 minutes in a season when he was 37 or older.

Everyone knows how serious the Delonte West issue is with this team right now, while he also brings up a valid point about Shaquille O’Neal’s age. West is clearly a force on the defensive end, and his .163 WP48 indicates that he is one of most efficient shooting guards in the NBA. Not of an elite class, but certainly a productive piece for a hopefully chanmpionship puzzle, West’s absence would clearly be felt. There are not too many teams employing two aging centers quite like the Cavs, and thus there could still be other variables that continue to bring down the production of both Shaq and Z.

With those quotes in hand, Dave Berri answered some questions for us by e-mail. The author of the Wages of Wins book about his basketball stats, he maintained his stance that the Cavaliers are the front-runners in the NBA this season:

Jacob Rosen: “What is the potential cost to the Cavs in terms of wins should Delonte West not be able to play at all this season? What is the direct replacement value of Antony Parker in the full-time starting lineup in place of Delonte West?”

Dave Berri: -“Delonte West produced 7.3 wins last season and he is more productive than Anthony Parker. The difference, though, is not that large. The big issue is who is going to be your back-up shooting guard in Parker moves into the starting line-up. If that player is not productive (and I think that player is Daniel Green), then the Cavs could be a few wins (probably less than five) worse.”

JR: “What are some negatives to this team (or positives of the Lakers, Celtics and Magic) that could hinder our chances at winning the title despite your preview the other day?”

DB: “I think the biggest threat to the Cavs is the Magic. Adding Vince Carter and moving Rashard Lewis to small forward (not sure the latter will happen) means the difference between the Cavs and Magic is fairly small. The Celtics are also very good, but they are also very old. So it seems likely the Boston players will be somewhat less productive — and/or injured — this year.

In the West, I think the Lakers have moved back to the pack. Unless Andrew Bynum returns to what he was in 2007-08, the Lakers — by adding Artest and losing Ariza — have declined a bit. At the same time, the Blazers, Spurs, Mavericks, Jazz, and Hornets are all better. So it is going to be harder for the Lakers to return to the Finals. And even if they do, it is likely that the Cavs, Magic, and Celtics are all going to be better than anyone in the West.

So if the Cavs can get out of the East, they will probably win the title. Getting past the Magic will probably be the hardest step.”

(A big thanks goes to Dave Berri for taking time out of his busy schedule to his help with this article. Continue to read  Berri’s blog at The Wages of Wins Journal, and he aims to finish all of his 2009-2010 NBA previews within the next two weeks.)