WFNY Podcast #18
July 23, 2009Waiting For… Cleveland’s First-Rounders
July 23, 2009
Scott discussed this yesterday, but its getting some legs. For those of you who didn’t think trading Victor Martinez was a realistic option (me for one), think again. ESPN’s Peter Gammons, arguably the most trusted member of the baseball media reported last night that the Red Sox turned down an offer of RHP Clay Buckholz for Martinez. Instead, they went for Pirates first baseman Adam Laroche, a non-tender candidate after the season that cost the Sox must less than their top pitching prospect.
The real story here is that it was the Red Sox who turned down the Indians, and not vise versa. This now proves that Mark Shapiro and his crew are willing to send their best player (sorry, its not you, Grady) packing right now rather then waiting until next season, the way they did with CC Sabathia.
On Tuesday SI.com’s Jon Heyman reported that now the Indians will indeed listen to offers for both Vic the Stik and Cliff Lee. Per Heyman:
“Something apparently happened in recent days to change their thinking and make them slightly more receptive to a trade, though it’s unclear exactly what.”
I’ll tell you what that “thing” is – attendance. This year’s team payroll is just north of $80 million, which was based solely on contending and reaching 2.2 million fans for the season. Right now, out of 30 teams, the Indians rank 27th in attendance, averaging just 22,240 per game. Keep in mind, the Yankees and Red Sox – the two biggest draws by far – do not visit Progressive Field again this season. Interleague play, another big drawing card, is also done. If and only if, things stay at the 22k plus average (which they won’t), the season attendance will be just over 1.80 million.
On top of that, the economy in regards to advertising sales is at 20 year lows, particularly in this city. The STO rating are way down, which means advertising sales are down, which means more revenues are down. STO’s programming in year three is still laughable. I mean, why would you want to advertise on a channel which essentially has four shows: Tribe games, All Bets are Off, The Outdoors Show with D’Arcy Egan and Joe Thomas, and their latest “gem,” Beer Money? Sure, the Browns nightly show will start when Training Camp starts next weekend, but the channel can’t possibly be making any money, can it?
In regards to the “stretched” payroll – that’s a direct quote from Tribe President Paul Dolan before the season started – dumping Mark DeRosa as early as they did helped shed some of his $5.5 million salary. Rumors are swirling that the Angels and Rockies are looking at reliever Rafael Betancourt, who is scheduled to get a raise to $5 million in 2010. You think the Indians want to pay that salary on a rebuilding team? Carl Pavano has reached his $5.5 million incentives and the team would love to deal him. I don’t think they would be able to get out from under Kerry Wood’s $20 million over the next two years. I can’t see anyone interested in a non-hitting third baseman like Jhonny Peralta or a singles hitting first basemen in Ryan Garko.
Which brings us back to Victor and Cliff. On Monday, I didn’t think it would be possible for either or both to be dealt. But if you take a step back, from a business standpoint, Mark Shapiro may have no choice. See, this is why you need a billionaire owner like Dan Gilbert, and not a millionaire owner like Larry Dolan who completely overpaid for the team and will never be able to re-coup his money for even $.50 on the dollar.
The Red Sox have scouts in Toronto for the Tribe series to watch both Cliff and Victor. They have to come away impressed with both. The Phillies may turn their attention to Lee now that a Roy Halladay deal may be put on the shelve because they don’t want to include top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek in any deal. The Dodgers interest in Cliff has been out there for months.
As for Victor, his contract is very manageable and is up at the end of 2010, so he’d be a perfect addition to a contender. The Red Sox still love him but according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (insider only) “they would have to overpay to get him; they would have to give up their most valued asset, young pitching.”
With the money issues the team has to be having in the face of dropping attendance, trading Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee for a major haul of prospects may be the best long term move for this organization.
25 Comments
Something is bound to happen with the roster in the next week or so. I would be a little surprised if the Indians made no big trades or no roster moves even to bring up a guy like LaPorta, Marte or Brantley.
All of this is just painful. I just cannot believe the last 2 years have been this bad. At this point I think we need to blow it all up and start over. But that has to include Wedge and, unfortunately, Shapiro. I was really sold on him as a GM but as badly as its been lately…well time to start over. Sad.
I’d be pretty surprised too if they dump both. I think getting rid of both of them would hurt the attendance/finances more than just sucking it up and paying one of them. I like Grady but I don’t want him to be the face of the franchise!
If nothing happened, I would be surprised in theory. Then I would realize that I root for a Cleveland team.
I wouldnt all be upset if Lee went, but if Victor goes then Id be angry.
@ #3 – I don’t see how the attendance couldn’t get much more dismal than it is now. Vic and Lee can’t draw people to the park when the rest of the team stinks (as is proven by the Tribe’s attendance this year). Once the kids go back to school and the weather cools off in September, the Jake will be a complete ghost-town.
If Shapiro were able to get a few major-league ready prospects for Vic & Cliff and the team called up some more young players, I for one think I’d actually be more inclined to go pay to watch a bunch of young guys with some upside rather than watching Vic, Cliff and the Stiffs.
Unfortunately, the sport you need a billionaire owner the most is baseball because of the big market/small market inequities.
If they trade both Lee and Vic you are going to see a huge drop in season ticket sales/renewals, but maybe they were expecting that already and figured might as well cut payroll when they can maximize it.
I just feel like if they bring those guys back, get a new manager, and have healthy (physical and mental) rebounds from Westbrook, Hafner, Carmona, and Lefty Perez, they could easily contend in the AL Central in 2010.
I am going to start emailing Mark Cuban. He wanted to buy the Pirates. He wanted to buy the Cubs. Maybe we can recruit him into thinking about owning an American League team in a city clamoring to spend its entertainment dollars on contenders… (See: Cavaliers, Cleveland)
Cuban and Gilbert owning teams in the same town?
My brain just went “Boom”
Correct. A rebuild requires a rebuild of the coaching staff as well as players.
WE DO NOT WANT CLAY BUCKHOLZ!!!! Do you suppose there’s a reason why you haven’t seen him since his no-hit season? Do you suppose there’s a reason why Boston keeps signing veteran pitchers ahead of the guy?
I’ll tell you why – he’s not that good. The Red Sox just don’t want anyone to see it before they deal him.
Welcome to perpetual rebuild mode. You have to spend money to make money in sports. The less appealing team they put out there, they people go and pay attention. They should have spent after 07 to improve and build on that team. More attendance, more revenue.
A perfect example is the Shaq trade. They picked up a 20mm contract, but next season season tickets sales are through the roof and their jersey or merchandise sales have gone up like 350%. They have nearly made back all of Shaqs salary in one month.
After what the Cavs have done this – to trade Lee and VMart would equate to franchise suicide. Look for a salary drop to the 50mm range next year.
bases loaded…
peralta = k
garko = k
now its up to francisco : \
well, i guess we can’t complain about drawing a walk and giving us the lead, now can we?
We’re two trades away from being the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next 20 years.
you know what? the heck with the indians. they aren’t even TRYING to win. they make me sick with their excuses. Westbrook? Hafner? Carmona? contenders?? no – PREtenders.
Wedge seems to be clueless, and the players really don’t need to care because there aren’t any minor league players challenging for their spots. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley are tearing it up but we consistently throw out Ben Francisco in the 6 hole.
How great would it be to have Brantley lead-off so Grady, Vic, and LaPorta could bat 3/4/5? I’m not saying it’s Lofton,Vizquel, Baerga, Belle again but I really feel like I’m watching the movie “Major League” here – who are these freakin’ guys?
The old adage is “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” well, it’s broke. fix it.
I live in New York and I am thisclose to rooting for the Yankees. Ugh.
To be completely honest, I was hoping that they would trade Vic once the season became a bust. He is a great player, but the depth we have at catcher and his age make it a smart move to do right now.
Lee on the other hand, I would love for us to keep around for awhile longer. I just dont know that he would be interested in staying after how this season has gone…
“You have to spend money to make money”
True dat. Too bad Cuban will never be given an opportunity to own, even though it would be great for the sport. I would love him as an owner, and would likely start caring about baseball again.
Not because I think he would outspend the Yankees/RedSox. But I think he would pay to keep the good players around. That would provide incentive to get to know and care about a team instead of the revolving door that currently exists. (also, we could have 3 cy young pitchers on the roster right now)
Welcome to the pre-Browns move Indians sparse crowds and fringe talent. Yeah!
I’m all for trading Vic to jumpstart the rebuilding but straight up for Bucholtz? Really? That’s all a perrenial all-star with an extra year on his contract at a position of minimal depth across the league is worth? We’re not talking about Tommy Hanson or David Price here.
Plus, is it really smart to throw all of your Victor equity into one basket? If Bucholtz turns into a #4 starter or blows out his arm, then what do you have to show for your best player? I would think they could at least get a guy of Bucholtz’s caliber plus one or two additional lesser prospects.
Betancourt to Rockies?
Took you guys all these years to figure out Dolan?
The Indians are now the Pittsburgh Pirates/KC Royals. Get used to it, unless and until you finally start demanding better.
I cut my season ticket ties with Dolan in 2002, saw the model then.
Congratulations on being the most bitter and disillusioned fan in Cleveland, Isis. Seriously, great job. I hope one day I can hate sports as much as you do.
This is beyond sad. I guess Shapiro must be staying after this year. If I was Dolan, Shapiro would not be allowed to make any moves this year as I would be firing him at the end of the season. We clearly have one of the dumbest organizations in baseball.
If we trade Victor and Lee (which I hope we do not), I hope it is to Tampa. Beyond the fact that they have lots of young talent, I live in Tampa and could continue to watch them up close and personal.
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