Browns Sign Roderick Hood to 1-Year Deal
May 26, 2009More Tribe Moves: Laporta Down, Crowe Up
May 26, 2009As the Cleveland Cavaliers get set to take on the Orlando Magic tonight in Orlando, the team finds itself yet again in an unfamiliar position with their backs against the wall. To call this game a “must win” might be a little strong, but it’s in the ballpark. The Cavaliers’ scenario for winning this series is simple. Win both remaining games at home in the Q, and find a way to win one of the two remaining games in Orlando. So even if the Cavaliers lose tonight, in theory they still just have to win Game 6 in Orlando and protect home court. This shouldn’t be too hard for a team which only lost at home twice in the regular season and which tied for the 2nd best road record in the league. You wouldn’t think it would be, anyway. But to this point in this series, it has been.
So why does this series have Cavaliers fans feeling so much gloom, doubt, anger, frustration, and genuine fear? The answer is simple, really. The Cavaliers have given us no reason whatsoever in this series to be optimistic. When LeBron James hit his game winning season saving shot in Game 2, I thought it was a lot like this year’s season finale of Lost. The atomic bomb had been detonated, and that detonation represented hope. Hope that there really was a chance for a clean slate. Hope that the past disappointment, despair, and frustration could all be erased. Hope that one shot could change everything, and that the Cavaliers could now reclaim their control over their own destiny. And just like the season finale of Lost, we couldn’t immediately know whether that detonation was going to work or not. We would have to wait and see.
So Game 3, then, was like the previews for the ultimate season premiere, which is Game 4. The previews were anything but favorable for the Cavaliers. They showed us hints that the detonation didn’t work quite like we had hoped. The Cavaliers didn’t come out on fire, riding the high of The Shot. In fact, they came out and looked even more sluggish and “off” than they had been in the first 2 games of this series, and the Cavaliers ultimately lost the game and put themselves in the position that we find them tonight.
All hope should not be abandoned, however. The Shot still has a chance to work. There were subtle clues in Game 3 that showed us a glimpse of how this series and this season can still be saved. Mainly, they finally had a defensive philosophy, and stuck with it. For the first time in this series, the Cavaliers finally held the Magic below their season FG%, as the Magic shot 42.9% in Game 3. The Cavaliers were content to let Dwight Howard beat them from the FT line. Sure, Howard shot 14-19 from the line in Game 3, but is that something he’s going to do for the entire series? The Cavaliers will take their chances. Furthermore, the Cavaliers defended the perimeter a lot better. After giving up 20 three point attempts in Game 1 and 23 of them in Game 2, the Cavs held them to 17 in Game 3. Some of that was adjustment to the flow of the game on Orlando’s part, but some if it was also the result of the Cavaliers doing a better job not giving up a lot of wide open looks from beyond the arc.
The main reason why the Cavaliers should still have hope, though, is simply the law of averages. The Magic are playing so far over their heads in this series, and the Cavaliers are playing so far below theirs, that the Cavaliers should feel blessed that they’ve even been in any of these games, let alone had a legit chance to win 2 of them. I’m sure that sounds like sour grapes, or whatnot, and of course some of the reason for the excellent play of the Magic and the poor play of the Cavaliers has to be credited to the matchup problems Orlando makes for Cleveland. Nobody is suggesting otherwise. The point here, however, is that these two teams are playing so far in opposite directions, and yet these games have been so close. If the Cavaliers can simply begin to stop worrying about who they are playing, and instead focus on themselves and get back to doing the things they do well, there’s reason at all why they can’t (and, in my opinion, shouldn’t) regain control of this series and ultimately find themselves in the NBA Finals.
For an example of what I’m talking about here, lets look at some of the numbers. In FG%, the Cavaliers shot 46.8% in the regular season and are shooting 46.3% in the playoffs. In this series, however, they are shooting just 44.0%, a drop of 2.8%. The Magic, on the other hand, shot 45.6% in the regular season and are shooting 46.3% in the playoffs overall. In this series, their FG% has sky rocketed to 49.1%, a whole 3.5% increase in shooting.
Three point shooting tells the same story. In the regular season the Cavaliers shot 39.3% from beyond the arc. In the postseason, that number is down overall to 31.8%, but in the Conference Finals it has dipped to a pathetic 25.7%. From the regular season to this series, the Cavaliers have seen their three point shooting drop by 13.6%, an amount that would be hard for any team to overcome. What makes it even harder to overcome is the way the Magic are shooting. In the regular season they shot threes at a 38.1% clip. In the postseason overall, that number dropped to 35.8%, but in the Conference Finals, they are suddenly shooting 41.7% from three as team. That’s a nice little 3.3% bump from their regular season pace. To give you an idea of how insanely hot 41.7% shooting from three as a team is, only one team in the history of the three point line has shot better than 41.7%, and that was the 1996-97 Charlotte Hornets.
Again, it is important to understand that I am not saying that none of this has to do with the matchup. The Magic are a great defensive team in their own right, and part of the Cavaliers offensive problems have stemmed from the way the Magic are defending them. But that will only get you so far. To see the kind of increases and decreases over both regular season and overall postseason averages that we are in this series, you have to believe at least some of it is a matter of one team being extremely hot and another being extremely cold. And in a series where the first 2 games were separated by one point each, you have to believe that margin of error was all the difference in the world for the Cavaliers, who happen to be the cold team in this series.
Which brings us to the bottom line for the Cavaliers tonight. We could spend hours and hours talking about strategic adjustments the Cavaliers need to make. We could dissect all the matchup issues the Cavaliers have with the Magic. We could ask why Wally Szczerbiak doesn’t play anymore. We could make suggestions on ways the lineup and rotations could be tweaked. All of that is valid, but it’s been done. This is Game 4. If the Cavaliers don’t know what they’re up against in the Orlando Magic by now, then none of this matters anyway. But the one thing that absolutely has to change, and there’s no good reason it can’t, is the shooting performance of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Sure, part of why the Cavaliers shot the ball so well in the regular season was because of their efficiency at going to the rim, something Orlando has done a fantastic job of taking away from Cleveland in this series. But that only tells part of the story. The Cavaliers are stereotypically thought of as a team that doesn’t necessarily shoot the ball that well. In fact, though, that’s about as far from the truth as it gets. In the regular season, only 29% of the Cavaliers’ shots were inside shots (only 3 teams took a fewer percentage of their shots inside). The truth is, the Cavaliers took 25% of their shots from beyond three, which was 4th in the NBA. Despite the high volume of threes, the Cavaliers were still 2nd in the NBA in 3pt%. Furthermore, the Cavaliers shot 40% on their 2pt jump shots (compared to 39.0% for Orlando) in the regular season, and 44% of their shots were 2pt jumpers. All season long the Cavaliers were a jump shooting team, and they were able to knock them down.
Perhaps that’s the moral of the story. I heard so many people saying things leading up to this series like, “Well, I know Orlando shoots well, but can they really stay hot for a 7 game series?” Perhaps that’s a better question to ask of the Cavaliers, as the Cavs are the team that shoots so many jump shots. The Magic are proving to us so far that they can stay insanely hot for 3 games. Will the Cavaliers answer the call and step up in this series, or will they sulk away in a whimper?
That’s what we’re about to find out tonight. How much do the Cavaliers really want this? For one night, forget about all this talk about Orlando being the better team. I don’t buy it. I’m sorry, call me naive, call me arrogant, it doesn’t bother me. I have watched this Cavalier team all season long, and I know they’re better than this. And to beat this Orlando team, that’s really all it’s going to take. The Cavaliers have been in every single game of this series despite playing the worst basketball we have seen from them all year. If the Cavaliers play even just a “little” better, and the Magic don’t somehow find a way to get even hotter yet, then Cleveland will be fine. Make no mistake about it…..the Cavaliers are the better team in this series. They’re just not playing like it.
The Cavaliers love to have their mantras. They are a “no excuses” team. They always take it “one game at a time”. Well, now’s the time to put that into action. Tonight is one game. One night, one chance. All the Cavaliers have to do is become themselves again. Shoot the ball with confidence. Buckle down on defense. Stop making excuses, stop crying to the officials, stop passing up good shots because confidence is lacking, stop settling on offense, stop looking around with that deer in headlights look, and most importantly of all……stop missing wide open shots. The Cavs are better than this, and they know it. At least they used to.
One game to save the season. That’s what tonight represents. A win for the Cavaliers, and The Shot becomes relevant again. The atomic bomb detonation will have a chance for success. The clean slate will be achieved, and home court advantage will once again belong to Cleveland. Before Game 4 of the Boston series last year, I wrote that the ball was in Cleveland’s court now, and that they had a chance to salvage everything with a Game 4 victory. The exact same thing can be said of this Game 4. A loss tonight, and things will be unbearably bleak for a team that gave us so much hope and joy all season long. A win tonight, and the dream will be alive once again. It’s there for the taking, if the Cavaliers would just reach out and take it.
19 Comments
This is it, balls to the wall time. No way we will beat Orlando three straight times, not with their toughness and ability to play under pressure. Which reminds me:
I think the defense is fine. This whole season now hinges on whether our players not named LeBron will shoot the ball when open. Just shoot it. They are hesitating and thinking, obviously gagging on the playoff pressure and Orlando’s very good defense. This means you Mo, Delonte, Andy. Wally has no business even hinting about his lack of playing time – on offense he just looks to pass it around the perimeter, keeping his head down, not even thinking about shooting. I want to see one shooter looking like this is fun, that he wants to take the shot. Three guys on Orlando have that look. Boobie had it in 2007, Mo during the reguilar season. Not the time to get gun shy, just let it go. Or go home.
I’ve said it to anyone who will listen for the past 40 hours or so: whoever wins tonight’s game wins the series. Simple as that.
They are shooting plenty…just not making. Mo and Delonte are combining for over 30 attempts a game.
@Lebron3eb: It’s about the quality of the shots. They are passing up good looks, and then forced to throw up bad looks when the shot clock is expiring.
That is very true. I’d say its very safe to say their shot confidence isn’t where it was at all during the regular season.
Rock – FANTASTIC piece.
Right now the Magic and this series is in the Cavs head. They’re so busy worrying about what they need to do to stop the Magic that they’re forgetting how to play their own game.
I think if they Cavs stop over-thinking and just start playing it’ll all come back. I wish I could say that I was confident that they were going to do that. If they win this game tonight I think they go on to win the series.
I’m so frickin scared and worried.
And the winner for the longest post in WFNY history is…. In all seriousness, great article. I cannnot understand why Mikey B. abondons his rotation that won 66 games and swept through 2 series after a one point loss against a hot shooting orlando team in game one. Shasha — pallleeze. Besides for the normal brain freeze plays, he now hesitates on the threes, making him completely wortheless. At least Wally shoots. And when Z is cold, let alone ice cold, why not rotate smith and Ben in there a little more. Next thing is we will be seeing Kinsley starting… panic panic panic time…
i spent all day before game 2 on the verge of a panic attack. Im getting close to that stage right now.
2 days ago I had the Cavs season written off, they were done. I was a sore loser. At least the Shot kept us from getting swept. Logically, fandom aside, I still think the odds are the Cavs will lose. Sorry to say it, but they are not playing like the same team- they’re reflective of the 2006-2007 team… Lebron and a bunch of guys. If they play like the team we know and love, well then that’s a different story. I’m talkin’ to you Mo, and you, Delonte.
But.. the Cavs have broken a lot of odds, a lot of records, this season. I’ll give them tonight as one more chance, because I agree with the suggestion that Orlando is too good to let Cleveland go 3-0 in the last 3 games to win it.
A little off topic, but…
After reading the various comments from Stan Van Gundy and the Orlando media about the officiating in this series (combined with Ben Wallace’s latest statement), a.) I’m shocked the Magic are complaining, after shooting 51 free throws on Sunday, b.) LeBron gets fouled at least twice every time he takes the ball to the rim, and c.) If the calls are going against the Magic early tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets in their guys’ heads.
If Stan Van Gundy’s focused on Cleveland flops (seriously? Mo Williams flopping? His face looked worse than when Creed fought Drago), maybe it takes Orlando’s focus off what they’ve been successful doing. Likewise, the Cavs could probably use a good distraction/motivator at this point…
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/nation_refuses_to_get_to?utm_source=a-section
For a much needed laugh.
Here’s a similar article, with colorful charts that are kind of amazing.
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2009/05/26/examining-the-magics-overall-effort-versus-clevelands-one-man-show/
@ Matt – I was reading a piece on SI.com where Assburner talks about the number of fouls called against DH vs. those called against LBJ – couple of stats that he forgot to throw into his piece though are that DH was 4th in the NBA in # of fouls committed in the regular season and 1st in the East in fouls per game.
To quote our beloved Sam:
“One time, baby, one time.”
@the boogie – That’s what Howard gets for sitting in the paint all game. Seriously, I’m surprised they haven’t tied a hammock to the rim for him.
Someone get David and TampaBrett some medical assistance before this game starts!
I enjoy watching these games, but since I have no control over their outcome, I conclude that while it is enjoyable if the Cavs win, I shouldn’t agonize if they do not. Sorry to get all rational on you all…
Phil ur a better man than me…. there is no way for me to not be emotionally vested in these games.
Please I need medical assistance. Been like this all series. I’m sure most of you know that from my posts.