The 5-Hole, CBJ News and Notes – 1/20/09
January 20, 2009Fourteen Indians Heading to WBC
January 20, 2009If last night’s loss in LA was any indication, the Cavaliers have to get bigger in the post if they are going to contend with big, athletic, front lines. Now I’m not saying that every team has a front court like the Lakers, with a 7-foot center (Andrew Bynum), a 6’10 power forward (Pau Gasol), and a 6’10 small forward (Lamar Odom). But the Lakers exposed the Cavs lack of depth up front without Zydrunas Ilgauskas. While reports say Z’s foot is progressing better than expected, we all know he is just one awkward move away from serious damage. I think we can all agree that without Big Z, this team is not going to win the NBA Championship as it is currently constructed.
Without Ilgauskas, Anderson Varejao has moved into the starting lineup and has played well for the most part, though he has slumped of late. Some would say Varejao’s overall game gets exposed when he plays too many minutes. He is at his best when he is fresh, playing in spurts and in the fourth quarter of close games. Ben Wallace is getting himself back into form after the flu ravaged him for 10 plus pounds. Regardless of how good Ben can be on the defensive end and on the glass, he is still offensively challenged. J.J. Hickson continues to show a little spark offensively and as a shot blocker, but he is still a major work in progress defensively, and never met a shot he didn’t like. Lorenzen Wright is filling in admirably, but he is clearly not the answer, and Darnell Jackson has been buried by Mike Brown.
The injury to Z has also moved the Wine and Gold to smaller lineups more often. Things have gotten so dire since Delonte West has been down with a broken wrist, that Brown was forced to play Lebron at Center, surrounded by four guards in Friday’s win over New Orleans. The banged up Cavaliers are clearly in need of another big body.
So this begs the question; what does GM Danny Ferry do with Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract? The Cavaliers #1 trade piece is Wally’s huge contract that comes off the books after the season. Wally is a bargaining chip for Ferry to work with if he wants to do so. There are two sides to this coin:
Hang on to him – This side of me says that when the Cavaliers were fully healthy, they are beasts. They steamrolled everyone in their path. Ilgauskas is the perfect pick and pop guy for Lebron James, and Ferry put together a group of shooters in Szczerbiak, Daniel Gibson, Mo WIlliams, West, and Sasha Pavlovic on the perimeter, opening the paint for James to knife through. Varejao, Ilgauskas, and Wallace are all excellent offensive rebounders, and Hickson has continued to improve, battling with these three in practice each day.
They have the option to go small with the strength of Lebron at the four-spot and it has worked. West, up until his injury, was having the best season of his career. Ilgauskas and Williams could easily be All-Stars. Varejao’s game has jumped to a new level. They can go up to 10 deep if they want to, with various lineup options. We have seen Mike Brown go with Szczerbiak against certain power forwards, leaving Lebron to handle the team’s best perimeter scorer. We’ve seen West, Williams, and Gibson on the floor together.
Speaking of Sasha, a trade of Szczerbiak for a big man would thrust major responsibility on him. He has had it in the past, but is so inconsistent from night to night, week to week, that not having Szczerbiak would just open up another hole if Pavlovic can’t give quality minutes on a regular basis.
Then there is the chemistry factor. In the history of this organization, perhaps no Cavalier team has jelled the way this group has. It’s not hard to tell how much this group genuinely likes and respects one another. They play together as if they would all run through a wall for each other. Perhaps there was no better example of this then when West went down last Thursday night in Chicago and the entire team rushed over from the bench to be at his side. The type of chemistry they have doesn’t just happen for every team and it’s something you can’t teach or coach. Does Danny Ferry dare break up this group?
Trade him –I mentioned earlier “if” the Cavs are healthy, they are a buzz-saw. That, as we have learned, is a big “if.” Right now, Mike Brown is without two starters in Ilgauskas and West. With Wallace’s back always a possibility to flare up, his minutes are limited, and Brown has been forced to go small more than he would like to, and opponents have taken advantage. Even though Varejao’s offensive game has improved, the Cavaliers still lack a true low post, back to the basket player. Hickson is too green to be counted on for key minutes during playoff basketball.
By contrast, the Cavaliers backcourt has many options with Williams, West, GIbson, Szczerbiak, and Pavlovic. Only one of those players has an expiring contract valued at over $10 million and can bring back the front court help they can use. That man is Szczerbiak.
With Pavlovic finding his way back into the rotation since the West injury, he will be fully acclimated to extended PT. Don’t forget, he was a starter on the team that went to The Finals just two years ago. When he is focused and playing well, he offers more than Szczerbiak does on both ends of the floor. It’s a chance Ferry and Brown would have to take in dumping Wally.
Trading Wally could bring the kind of extra big Danny Ferry has been craving. Some names that have been bandied about include Sacramento’s Brad Miller, Miami’s Shawn Marion, Chicago’s Drew Gooden, New York’s David Lee, Toronto’s Jermaine O’Neal, and Oklahoma City’s Joe Smith. (there has been Joe Smith buyout talk. Thanks to readers who brought to my attention that Smith cannot be dealt back to Cleveland because of NBA rules).
Miller’s contract matches with Wally’s and would come off the books after next season. Marion is a talent, no doubt about it, but he is a diva who Miami is out to drop. Lee is eligible for an extension after next season as well, but if the Cavaliers aren’t interested in keeping him around long term, they can let him become unrestricted by the time the summer of 2010 comes around. He may be the best option as he is young, energetic, and a player on the rise. O’Neal’s best days are behind him and he is slated to make over $18 million next year. Teaming him with Chris Bosh in Toronto was supposed to take the Raptors to the next level, but it hasn’t materialized. Now, GM Bryan Colangelo is out to dump him.
Ex-Cavaliers Gooden and Smith are intriguing. Both know the system, both can knock down the mid-range jumper. Both are playoff-tested veterans. Gooden’s tendencies to float in and out of games, especially on the defensive side of the ball, wouldn’t put him at the top of my list. Smith, on the other hand, is an excellent complimentary player, who knows his role on both ends of the floor. Both players are unrestricted free agents at season’s end. Smith would have to be bought out to be brought back.
The options are plentiful if indeed Ferry wants to make that move.
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So what does Ferry do? In my opinion, I think the loss of West may have opened his eyes to the fact that he is indeed lucky to have such great depth in the back court. It will come down to whether or not he and Mike Brown can indeed trust Sasha Pavlovic enough with Delonte out another six weeks. I think they will show that faith in Sasha, and deal Wally. There is a big catch – the potential for a buyout of Wally by his potential new team.
It isn’t that far fetched. Think about it. Let’s say the Cavs were to deal Wally to the Cliipers for Marcus Camby. Why would that young team, with a back court of rookie Eric Gordon and Baron Davis, want Wally rotting on their bench? He can easily be bought out, sit out 30 days, and come back to Cleveland, ala Antonio McDyess and Detroit (think McDyess would like a do-over and sing in Cleveland instead of sticking with a going-nowhere Pistons club?). That, my friends, would be the perfect storm.
With the deadline approaching and the Cavaliers on a West Coast swing, its a very important stretch for not just the players, but for the front office as well. We’ll see how things shake out. But there is no doubt, we will be talking about Wally Szczerbiak one way or another, quite a bit over the next month.
51 Comments
i love wally and he might not be a great player but he is there when the team needs him and like it has been mentioned the team is really jelled. so if they get rid of wally they better get someone well worth the salary he earns and can help the team.