The 5-Hole, CBJ News and Notes – 11/11/08
November 11, 2008Quitters?
November 11, 2008Milwaukee Bucks (3-4) vs
Cleveland Cavaliers (5-2)
Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
7:00 PM EST
FSNOH/WTAM
The Cleveland Cavaliers put their 4 game winning streak on the line this evening as Mo Williams will face his old team for the first time when the Milwaukee Bucks bring their new look roster into the Q. The Bucks will be shorthanded as team captain and fellow Redeem Team member Michael Redd will miss this game with a sprained ankle. Last year, the Cavaliers dropped 3 of 4 against the Bucks, with Mo Williams being especially effective in averaging 26.0 points per game against Cleveland. Now, Mo is in the wine and gold, and the Cavaliers look to get off to a better start against Milwaukee than they did last year.
Projected Starting Lineups
Milwaukee Bucks:
-G Luke Ridnour (9.4 ppg, 6.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 9.54 PER)
-G Charlie Bell (5.9 ppg, 2.6 apg, .294 3P%, 6.50 PER)
-F Richard Jefferson (18.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.7 apg, 15.32 PER)
-F Charlie Villanueva (10.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 13.13 PER)
-C Andrew Bogut (10.9 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 14.37 PER)
Key Injuries: Michael Redd (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers:
-G Mo Williams (14.1 ppg, 4.9 apg, 1.1 spg, 12.28 PER)
-G Delonte West (10.1 ppg, 2.0 apg, .500 3P%, 13.43 PER)
-F LeBron James (28.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 7.0 apg, 32.44 PER)
-F Ben Wallace (2.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 12.49 PER)
-C Zydrunas Ilgauskas (15.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 22.48 PER)
Key Injuries: Eric Snow (Out), Darnell Jackson (Out)
Team Efficiency Stats
Milwaukee Bucks:
-Off (95.9 ppg, 41.4 rpg, .450 FG%, .708 FT%, 22.7 apg, Efficiency-97.8, Rank-26)
-Def (97.3 ppg, 39.7 rpg, .448 FG%, Efficiency-101.3, Rank-16)
Cleveland Cavaliers:
-Off (99.6 ppg, 41.0 rpg, .467 FG%, .767 FT%, 19.4 apg, Efficiency-106.4, Rank-9)
-Def (93.0 ppg, 36.9 rpg, .424 FG%, Efficiency-99.9, Rank-12)
Game Notes
Sometimes it’s like I don’t even recognize the team we are watching this year. How big of a difference has adding Mo Williams to the team and sliding Delonte West to the 2 made for this team? The Cavaliers are 9th in the NBA in points per game (4th in the Eastern Conference). The Cavaliers are 5th in FG% at 46.73% (1st in the East), 5th in the NBA in Adjusted FG% (1st in the East), and 2nd in the NBA in Points per Shot (1st in the East). In just one offseason the Cavaliers have transformed their offense from one of no identity and no gameplan and no motion into one of quick ball movement, lots of motion off the ball, and a healthy dose of give and go pick and roll plays.
All we heard was how this would effect the Cavaliers defense. That Mo Williams’ would be the end of the Cavaliers’ defense. Well, that hasn’t exactly been the case. Sure, Rondo still had his way with the Cavaliers in the season opener, and sure, CP3 was still a handful for Mo, and sure, the rookie phenom Derrick Rose was able to get plenty of easy baskets in 2 games against Cleveland this year. But the Cavs defense as a whole has still been pretty solid. The Cavaliers are 6th in points against per game (3rd in the East), 6th in the NBA in opponents FG% (3rd in the East), and 4th in point-differential per game (2nd in the East) at +6.6 points per game. They’re 7th in blocks per game and 13th in steals per game. All in all, the Cavaliers defense has still been superb, especially when it comes to FG% and PPG.
So why have the Cavaliers been in a couple close games lately against inferior opponents? The main culprit is rebounding and turnovers, which have led to entirely too many second chance and fast break opportunities. If the Cavaliers can start to cut down on the turnovers, and get back to outrebounding their opponents, the Cavaliers are going to make themselves one of the toughest teams to beat in the NBA. For quick reference, the Cavaliers are 6th in the NBA in defensive Effective FG% against, 11th in Turnover Perentage (turnovers per 100 possessions), and 25th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. So while the Cavaliers may look like a decent/average rebounding team because of their raw number of rebounds, that’s actually more a function of the pure number of rebounds available per game as a result of the Cavaliers defense forcing teams to miss so many shots. In actuality, the Cavaliers are only grabbing defensive rebounds 71% of the time when a shot is missed, and there are 24 teams in the NBA doing a better job than that.
We knew that the Cavaliers frontcourt could be an issue this season, and we’re starting to see some of that come true. A major concern is Big Z’s rather mediocre average of just 6.7 boards per game. His rate of 8.5 rebounds per 36 minutes is the lowest of his entire NBA career. Once considered one of the best in the NBA at offensive rebounding, he currently ranks 42nd in the entire NBA in offensive rebounds per game among qualified players (players on pace to play 70 games or collect 800 rebounds). He’s 60th in the NBA in rebounds per 48 minutes among qualified individuals. Ben Wallace hasn’t been much better. He’s 33rd in rebounds per game and 20th in offensive rebounds per game, but he is 9th in rebounds per 48 minutes. The problem is, the Cavaliers can’t give him that many minutes because he’s such an offensive liability.
So what does all this have to do with Milwaukee? Not a whole lot, but it shows the areas of concern that we can watch for in this game tonight. In the NBA, you can never overlook any team, but without Redd the Bucks are a bit of a mess. Ramon Sessions is having a nice season off the bench, and Richard Jefferson is always a gamer, but beyond that, not too many guys have stepped up for the Bucks. A home game off 3 days rest against a divisional foe should give the Cavaliers no excuse for not coming out on fire and with a renewed energy and focus. It’s time for the Cavaliers to figure out their rebounding problems and get back to fortifying the offensive glass.
The Cavaliers have scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games. To find the last time the Cavaliers scored 100 or more in 5 straight games, you have to go all the way back to March/April of the 2005-06 season when the Cavs won 50 games and was the last Cavaliers team to finish above league average in PPG and to the last Cavs team to average more than 97 points per game. I’ve often wondered how good that team could have been had that not been Mike Brown’s first season and had the Cavaliers had more time to grasp his defensive system. Well, we might be on the verge of finding out this year what happens when you combine a good offense with a Mike Brown defense, but that just won’t happen until the Cavs cut down the turnovers and increase the rebounds. So that’s what I’ll be watching tonight in this matchup against a pretty good rebounding team in their own right in the Milwaukee Bucks.
Vegas Line
Cleveland -12
Over/Under 189.5
From The Outside Looking In
Brew Hoop
The Bratwurst
Bucks Diary
The Bob Boozer Jinx
Next Game For The Cavaliers
Thursday, November 13, 2008
8:00 PM EST
Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
TNT/WTAM
8 Comments
Expect a big win in this one, James should definitely be able to shut down Jefferson, but I am worried about Bogut and Ramon Sessions. Villaneuva should also cause some problems over Wallace. But yes, like you point out, the team that outrebounds should be the team that pulls out the win. Another great preview guys, keep it up
Could some of Z’s drop off in offensive rebounding be attributed to him floating out for jump shots more often? It seems like he’s not under the rim as much this year. Not complaining, as it seems nobody thinks to guard him away from the hoop.
I think Charlie V could give us problems if Milwaukee would play the guy. I like LRM as much as the next guy – I mean, he does hustle – but Villanueva has some skills.
Gibson is ice cold so far this game. 0-9 from the field including 4, 3pt attempts. He needs to pick it up or hit the bench stat! Games tied!
Can’t say Wally’s stat line looks much better – 6 minutes, 0/1, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 fouls at the half.
However, Lebron’s only played 7 minutes in the first half and has 17 points, according to ESPN’s Gamecast.
Yea, well Wally’s taken 5 shots to Boobie’s 14. And that means with the game this cold, we have 2 ice cold shooting specialists in adding their questionable defense to the mix. Nicely played Mike Brown.
Man, its a good thing Lebron is a ridiculous scorer who shot a pretty high percentage tonight. But hey, a win is a win.
It’s nice to play the Bucks without Redd and Mo Williams, hehehehe.
Sessions looked tough. He’s going to be a heck of a player if he continues to progress.
Also, this just in: LeBron is good.