Open Thread: Browns at Baltimore Ravens
September 21, 2008If We Don’t Laugh, We’ll Cry…
September 22, 2008Last week Rock and I exchanged way too many emails talking about the upcoming Cavaliers season. One would have thought that maybe Rock and I should have been spending our time talking about the Browns, but that just goes to show just how prescient we are. Why waste your time talking about a listless football team on its way down when you can look ahead to the Cavs? Anyway, this is how it went down. I started it off.
Craig: While there are a lot of questions surrounding the Cavs this season, one thing is seemingly permanently planted in cement. This is the year for the Cavs. That isn’t to say they are guaranteed a trip to the NBA finals where they will win it, but it is to say that this might be the best chance to win it all that any Cavs team has ever had in my 29 year-old lifetime. The Cavs don’t have a “big 3” like Boston has, and they still don’t get the respect for having “pedigree” like the Detroit Pistons, but who among the teams in the East, other than maybe Philly has gotten better this offseason than the Cavaliers? So I am just wondering, with all this stacked in Cleveland’s favor, is this finally a make or break year for Mike Brown as head coach of the Cavs?
RockKing: I’m not so sure I think anyone, including Philly, who was below the Cavaliers in the East last year has now gotten better than Cleveland. I like what Philly did a lot in bringing in Brand, of course, and I expect Brand to be a matchup nightmare when the Cavs play the Sixers, but is he enough to make the Sixers 10 games better than they were last year? I’m not sold on that. I do, however, like what the Raptors did a LOT this off season. If Jermaine O’Neal is really healthy, they have a starting five of Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Chris Bosh, and O’Neal, with Bargnani, Kapono, and a vastly underrated Kris Humphries coming off the bench. They played eight games below their expected win total last year (49), and I think with a little health, they can bounce back to the 48/49 win total this year. I also think Indiana can be a better team this year, as they added TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Jarrett Jack, and Brandon Rush. You can’t overlook the Miami Heat, either. They picked up James Jones in free agency, added Beasley and Chalmers in the draft, and of course are getting Dwyane Wade back as well. With a healthy Wade, such as the one we saw in Beijing, the Heat could easily win at least 20 more games than they did last year.
Having said all that, I’m also not sure the Cavaliers are going to leap over any of the 3 teams ahead of them last year (Boston, Detroit, Orlando). For all of Joe Dumars’ rhetoric about how he was going to shake up the roster, they really didn’t lose anyone of major impact, nor did they add anyone of major impact. Their current roster won 59 games last year, which means the Cavaliers have their work cut out for them if they’re going to win the Central this year. So my question to you, then, is this: Do you think the Cavaliers can catch the Pistons and finally win the Central Division, and do you think the Cavs can jump over Orlando or Boston this year as well?
Craig: I think the Cavaliers COULD catch the Pistons. First of all, with the acquisitions, I think the Cavaliers finally have the talent and depth to challenge the Pistons. There are two things that stand in the way of actually accomplishing that goal. First, is it going to be a priority for LeBron James to win all those regular season games like it was for KG and company in Boston last year? There is something to be said for pacing yourself in an 82-game season. It is a dangerous game to go out there and try to be dominant all year. The Celtics rose up to the challenge, but they looked like they ran out of gas at points during the playoffs when Atlanta and Cleveland were pushing them to the brink. So LeBron’s strategic mindset is one factor.
The other factor (as I sound like a broken record) is Mike Brown. I put it out there the first time and you didn’t bite, Rock. I think this is a make or break year for Mike Brown. Mike Brown advocates like to point out his winning percentage and success rate as head coach. It has always been my assumption that the Cavs win in spite of their one-track-minded defensive coach. I respect his defense, but I don’t think that should ever be a good enough excuse to have ZERO offensive gameplan.
RockKing: Boy, I just don’t know. I always have a really tough time trying to sort out my feelings on Mike Brown. The guy flat out knows how to win in the postseason, and he knows how to get guys to play defense. I would honestly say that I don’t want an offensive minded coach if it means the players will relax on defense. If you look at the top 5 defenses in Points Allowed last year, it’s the Celtics, Pistons, Spurs, Rockets, and Hornets. It’s no coincidence that those are some of the strongest teams in the NBA. I’m not so sure the Cavs are a great defensive team on their own merits, I think Mike Brown deserves all the credit in the world for getting a guy like LeBron to buy into it and turn himself into one of the better defenders in the NBA. Having said that, it’s obvious how we all feel about Brown’s lack of offensive identity. It’s not so much that we need Brown to suddenly become an offensive genius, but rather, we just need him to give the team an identity beyond “stand there and watch LeBron dribble for 15 seconds and then drive and kick it to someone”. That’s not an offense. As far as being a make or break year for Coach Brown, I don’t think so, no. I think Ferry is on board with him for sure, and I don’t see Dan Gilbert being the kind of meddling owner who would demand Ferry fire the coach. What I do think, though, is that if the Cavs struggle on offense again this year and they lose in the playoffs again because of it, I think Gilbert could step in and demand that Mike finally swallow his pride and bring in an assistant who can establish an offensive system.
Speaking of offensive systems, though, with the current roster the Cavs have, what kind of offense do you think the Cavs would be most successful in running? What changes, subtle or not, would you like to see the Cavs implement on offense to be more successful on that side of the ball?
Craig: Now that is a tough question. Back in my days playing basketball in school, we always ran some version of the motion offense and instead of giving it a powerhouse college name like Kentucky, Duke, or something like that, we thought it would be a brilliant idea to call it Lakeland. So, we would constantly run up the court setting up our Lakeland offense as the opponents looked at each other wondering why a team would name their offensive set around a local community college. I digress. I guess the bottom line is that I don’t really care much as long as they run something. I think the Cavs could be well-served with some pick and roll with LeBron being the picker and roller. They have the guards now to have two offensive schemes. They could have the starting offensive scheme when Zydrunas is in the game and LeBron is playing the 3, and they can have a completely different scheme when they go small and LeBron is playing the 4. With Mo Williams and Delonte West being able to handle the ball, it is going to allow Boobie Gibson and Wally to really concentrate on finding space and spotting up. Before Mo and Delonte got here, Boobie was almost being forced into trying to be a PG when he really isn’t.
Do you have any ideas for what offense the Cavs should run? Also, if you had to guess, how prepared do you think J.J. Hickson is to step up and play meaningful minutes this season? He played well in summer leagues, but we all know that isn’t a perfect indicator.
RockKing: For me, I just don’t want to see LeBron getting the ball at the top of the key on every possession. I’m so sick of that being their offense, and that will completely take away the strengths Mo Williams brings to this team. I want to see LeBron moving without the ball more. More back side screens and back door cuts, with Mo initiating the offense. I would also try to get LeBron to post up more often. Imagine if the Cavs could get away with putting Mo, Delonte, Gibson, LeBron, and Z on the court at the same time. That’s 5 guys who are above average offensive players. Sure, it’s a small lineup, but it would create some matchup issues for the opponents. But that would be dependent on LeBron posting up some, and I just don’t think he wants to do that. That’s why I still don’t believe LeBron will play much 4 this year….I just don’t think that’s his game, and I don’t think he has any interest in making that his game. I would love to see LeBron setting some picks for Mo, which would give Mo the option to drive to the hole, give to LeBron as he peels off the pick, dish to Z for a mid range jumper, or kickout to Gibson or Wally for an open outside look. I’d work on the spacing on pick and roll plays if I were Mike Brown, because the offensive talent is here now, it’s just a matter of figuring out how the pieces best fit together.
As for Hickson, I wouldn’t expect much out of him early in the season. Mid-to-late first round picks rarely come in and make an immediate impact. Even when Boozer was here, as great as he turned out to be, he wasn’t much of a factor the first half of his rookie season. Daniel Gibson didn’t really find his stride until after the All-Star break. I wrote it at draft time that I really liked the pick of Hickson a lot, and I still do. I think he’s eventually going to be a very efficient power forward in this league. But I’m not expecting much early. We’ll primarily see a rotation of Z, Wallace, Varejao, and Wright early on. This means there will be a fair amount of pressure on Hickson to figure it out early, because that front court is awfully thin. If anyone gets injured, it will force Hickson to play more before he’s ready, and I’m really hoping that won’t happen. By the end of the year, I’m hoping to see results similar to what Carl Landry was able to do last year for Houston. I think Hickson will eventually be better than Gooden, but not as good as Boozer. But for this year, I’m just looking for improvement as the season goes along. If the Cavaliers find themselves in a position in which they are relying on JJ to be an impact player, then this is going to be a long season for us Cavs fans, because something will have gone horribly wrong.
I think all this talk about the offense is interesting, but let’s take another approach. The system is only one half of the equation, with the other being the players themselves. Let’s look at personnel. Who do you think should start at the 2, and what kind of back court rotations would you use to make sure everyone is getting appropriate minutes?
Craig: I honestly think that Delonte West and Mo Williams should be the starting guards. I think either one of them can fill the PG and SG spots effectively. I think in the rotation of guards they are the two best. Now, I wouldn’t count on Mike Brown doing that. I am guessing he is going to go will go for a feeling like in hockey with a line change. I am guessing he will go with Mo Williams and Wally as his starters and then bring Delonte and Boobie off the bench at the same time. I don’t know why I have this feeling, but wouldn’t it be just like Mike Brown to group the players in such a way that he has one ball handler and one shooter instead of going with the rotation? I figure Mike Brown has to have either Delonte or Mo Williams on the court to handle the ball about 85-90% of the time, but maybe I am wrong. No matter what the rotation, don’t you think at the end of the game in crunch time, Mike Brown will have Mo and Delonte on the court at the same time?
RockKing: I absolutely would WANT to see Mo and Delonte in the back court in crunch time, but in games in which the Cavs are trailing we’ll probably see Mo and Boobie out there together. Which is fine. Actually, I really could see Mike Brown using Mo, Delonte, Gibson, LeBron, and AV in games in which the Cavs are trailing at the end. I’m really interested in seeing if the foursome of Mo, Delonte, Daniel, and LeBron can work, because I think that lineup could do some damage. You brought up an interesting thought, about Delonte or Mo needing to be in the game to handle the ball 85-90% of the time. I think that’s a really valid point. In his starts at PG, Gibson has shown that he’s not really right for starting any kind of offense. Mo and Delonte are much better facilitators. But I could also see times where Mike Brown would have them both sitting on the bench and LeBron just bringing the ball up the court. I don’t condone that, but Brown seems to be ok with LeBron bringing it up from time to time. I can’t wait for the times when Brown puts a lineup on the floor of LeBron, Pavlovic, Wally, Wallace, and Varejao. You laugh, but you know it’s going to happen. It would just be a massive improvement if Brown can learn to stop putting lineups out there that have no chance of scoring outside of LeBron. Now that this team has some depth in scoring, Brown needs to learn to make sure there are always at least 2 of Mo, Delonte, Daniel, LeBron, and Z on the court at any one time.
I think we have a handle on the offense a bit now, unless you have more to add. But lets think about the defense a bit. We think of the Cavs as a great defensive team, but after 29 games last season, they were giving up 100.31 ppg. By the end of the season they got it down to 96.73 ppg, but even then, I think that’s worse than what Mike Brown wants. In the post season they picked it up and allowed only 87.77 ppg. Obviously things always tighten up a bit in the postseason, but how do you expect the Cavs to play defensively in the regular season this year?
Craig: Well, this conversation has been good and long. I will sum up my thoughts on defense and then give you the last word, Rock. I think it will come down to three dependent variables. LeBron, Team Chemistry and the Boston effect. First if LeBron wants to compete for the number 1 seed then the Cavs will play defense all year. Secondly, if the team comes together like we hope they will, they will thrive off creating fast break opportunities created by defense. We saw this effect in the Olympics. Third, if a team (like Boston last year) proves to be completely unconscious and dominant, then the Cavs will make a decision whether to try and compete for that number one seed, or whether they want to pace themselves to set up for the playoffs. Number 3 is very similar to number 1, but as I said, I think they are all dependent variables.
It has been a good discussion, Rock. I look forward to your final thoughts and what you think about the defense.
RockKing: I think chemistry will be key. Having Varejao in camp from day one is enormous. He needs to bounce back from last season and give a better effort. The Cavs did get better after the trade defensively, especially once they had time to gel. I look forward to them putting it all together in camp this year. I expect the Cavs to play strong defense all year, and as long as the Olympics didn’t wear him out too much, I think LeBron has a real breakout year defensively. If Mike Brown and LeBron can through to Mo Williams, then when Williams, West, James, Wallace, and Ilgauskas are on the floor, they will be a tough defensive crew. A lot ‘ifs’, I realize, but that’s just how I see it.
I think this season is in the hands of the players. With hard work and dedication, this should be one of the best teams in the East and I think the Cavs are in position to make their most legit run for the title yet. If they come out flat, though, we’re probably looking at more of the same. This truly will be a watershed season for LeBron and crew.
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Craig back here again. Congrats if you made it all the way down here. There will be more conversations about the Cavs as this team comes to camp and starts the season.
7 Comments
This really was a good discussion. Looking forward to more…
Caaaaaaaaaaaavssssssssssss!!!!
Health + A cav’s version of “Jobu”=winning a title
FYI-I am terrible at math.
How about JonesBu?
Do you guys realize delonve will get torched by sg’s? He a gritty defender sure but it don’t matter if he guarding players wit 3 inches on him. Sasha gonna start at the 2 not wally unless wally just come in to training camp and dominates. In crunch time i want lebron,mo,z,gibson and andy lol. I expect a championship if not its a failure but thats for every team every year
The Cavs offense was so heavily influenced by Lebron starting at the top of the key, because it was the best option they had. When Delonte West was relegated to standing the corner while LeBron tried to get into the paint I realized that even with a solid ball-handler, LeBron isn’t comfortable playing off the ball – he loses interest, rarely crashes the boards or makes back door cuts, and nobody else on the team can shoot off the dribble. Now that we have Delonte AND Mo Williams, LeBron is really going to have to learn to play away from the ball. He needs to develop a post game and learn to crash the boards when the play doesn’t include him.
I’m looking forward to the play of Boobie Gibson, Sasha Pavolvic, and Anderson Varejao this year. I think they all have something to prove after struggling last year with injuries. If Varejao and Pavs play at their 2006-2007 levels and Boobie progresses like he should – the Cavs will have lots of talented options.
I think the Cavs season is an enigma, and early play will determine who the Szerbiak/Snow contract dumpoff yields.
The East is no joke and the Cavs better be ready to rumble early on b/c the conference is deeper and our “keep it close and let LBJ win it” mantra is going to be good for only about 43-45 wins unless they decide to shake up the offense and transition game.
I would love to see LeBron get a post up game. Force the other team to put a big on him, then he can dribble out of the post and exploit the mismatch.