Another Staph Infection?
April 11, 2008Not Exactly A Career High To Brag About
April 12, 2008
Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia
There are essentially two ways of looking at the contract extension given to Fausto Carmona yesterday. If you’re a ‘glass is half-empty’ kind of person you probably see this as an insurance policy for the Indians…..a sign of things to come. If you’re a ‘glass is half-full’ kind of person you probably see this as a bolstering of the pitching staff for years to come. Or maybe you don’t care how much is in the glass to begin with because it feels like Mark Shapiro always has plenty of spare liquids to refill the glass any time he wants. No matter what your personal disposition is, it’s hard to view the Carmona signing outside of the spectrum of the CC Sabathia negotiations.
First things first, though. This deal is a steal for the Indians. Look at the figures for this contract. The deal is only guaranteed 4 years for $15 million. That’s an average of $3.75 million per year. The actual breakdown is as follows:
- 2008: $500,000
- 2009: $2.75 million
- 2010: $4.9 million
- 2011: $6.1 million
- 2012 (Club Option): $7 million
- 2013 (Club Option): $9 million
- 2014 (Club Option): $12 million
Not exactly pocket change. In fact, it ties the highest guaranteed money ever given to a player before he was eligible for arbitration (Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals received the same guaranteed dollars) and is the most money ever given to a starting pitcher with just one year under his belt as a starter. Fausto Carmona isn’t going to be struggling to help his family any time soon. But this deal really is a huge steal for the Tribe.
The biggest reason is because of age. Remember, C.C. Sabathia made his debut as a 20 year old kid. Carmona, on the other hand, was 23 years old already when he finally found his permanent role in the Indians’ rotation. This makes a big difference when these contracts expire. The first 4 guaranteed years are a decent amount of money, but they’re still far below what the Johan Santana’s and Jake Peavy’s of the world are making. If Carmona really does blossom into the ace we all hope he is, the dominant power pitcher with the virtually untouchable sinker, then he is going to be radically underpaid over the next 4 years. And if Carmona tanks, and there’s no reason whatsoever to think he will, then ok, the Indians are only out 4 years and $15 million. They don’t seem to have a problem paying David Dellucci $4 million this year, so no big deal if Fausto underperforms either.
But lets just assume for a second that he becomes an ace for this Indians team, comparable to the level that Sabathia is at. When the guaranteed 4 years expire, Fausto will be 28 years old and at his peak. At the end of this season, Sabathia will be 28 years old and at his peak. But whereas Sabathia is about to seek over $20 million per year, the Indians will be able to exercise their options on Carmona and have him for 3 years at an average of $9.33 million per year. By the time this full 7 year option expires, Carmona will be 31 years old and will begin to enter his likely period of decline. He may be able to find someone to overpay for him similar to the way Pedro Martinez did with the Mets, but he will never make as much money as he could have had he been a free agent in his prime at age 28.
Which leads us to C.C. Sabathia. I have a couple thoughts on the big fella, and some of it ties in to Carmona’s deal. The one telling thing to me in all of this is that the Carmona deal showed us who truly does want to be in Cleveland. As I’ve already said, Fausto left the chance to make a LOT of money on the table when he took this deal. He took it, presumably, for the long term security of it more so than the dollars, but it also shows how Carmona feels about this organization. He mentioned it (via interpreter….can’t believe he doesn’t speak English yet) in his press conference yesterday. He felt a sense of loyalty to the Indians for sticking by him when he struggled in 2006 with the 10 consecutive appearances with a loss. Sabathia says he wants to stay in Cleveland, but is he just giving lip service?
I find it somewhat alarming that the second Johan Santana’s contract was announced, Sabathia made news of his own by shutting down negotiations with the Indians. This seems counterproductive for someone who wants to stay in Cleveland. It’s even funnier when you consider that the Santana deal ended up being “only” about $20.5 million per year and the Indians’ offer to Sabathia was between $17 million and $18 million per year. With a sweetened deal for 2008, it could have bumped the total value closer to $19 million per year. In the end, the difference is somewhere around $2 million per year. Evidently that gap is bigger than C.C.’s true desire to stay in Cleveland. Or perhaps the issue is the number of years. Either way, as of now, every month that goes by, the odds of C.C. staying in Cleveland grow smaller and smaller.
But don’t be fooled by the lack of negotiations at the moment. I remember last season when Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs tried a similar tactic. Then he started the 2007 season VERY slowly. In his first 15 starts, he allowed 5, 3, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 7, 2, 6, 2, 0, and 1 earned runs. On June 17th, Zambrano found himself faced with a 7-6 record and a 4.53 ERA. Hardly Cy Young numbers, and he knew it. What did he do? He went back to the Cubs and negotiated a contract. This season, Sabathia is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA. If his struggles carry on into June or July, don’t be surprised if C.C. is suddenly a little more responsive to the Indians’ offer. A lot can happen and a lot can change between now and the end of the season. The good news for Indians fans, though, is that the organization has sent a clear signal that if need be, they are content moving forward with Carmona in the drivers seat. But should Sabathia want to actually sit down and negotiate in good faith with the Indians, it’s also nice to know that the Indians didn’t wrap up so much money in Carmona that they can’t even make Sabathia a fair offer.
2 Comments
the CC storyline continues to get interesting but i must say that i honestly believe his shutting down of negotiations really is CC saying “let’s see what happens,” much like your carlso zambrano comparison.
i think that its also comparable to the “Lebron to new york/brooklyn” talk, in that its all speculation for the time being, and that the forthcoming season(s) will truly be the deciding factors. the indians win the world series with CC dominating? obviously he’ll want more money. but the Indians win the world series with CC stinking up the joint? he might be a little more humble. he just wants to see which one is the case before committing, much like lebron not taking the long-term contract.
CC dominating? Doesn’t look that will be case. I know it’s early, but holy hanging curveballs Batman. This could be for the best. Maybe he kills his value this year, and we get him cheap. With no pressure to perform, he may get his act together.