The 5-Hole – Blue Jackets News and Notes: 3/17/09

Every Tuesday, WFNY’s The 5-Hole brings you up to date with the goings-on of the CBJ…

The Week That Was

Week: 3-1-0, 6 points
Overall: 36-28-6, 78 points (3rd division; 6th conference)

The Jackets had an incredible week. There’s no other way to say it. When the schedule lined up with five straight games against Detroit, Boston, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Detroit again, it was entirely possible in my mind that the Jackets might not get any points at all, and would thus manage to remove themselves from any and all playoff discussions. Eight points later, they are somewhat firmly entrenched in sixth place, and have a pretty doable road to the playoffs. For the first time in their history. I don’t know what else to say other than that!

Tuesday, 3/10 in Columbus – Blue Jackets 2, Bruins 0 (Recap)
Thursday, 3/12 in Columbus – Blue Jackets 4, Penguins 3 – SO (Recap)
Friday, 3/13 in Chicago – Blue Jackets 5, Blackhawks 3 (Recap)
Sunday, 3/15 in Columbus – Red Wings 4, Blue Jackets 0 (Box Score) – Highlights

The Jackets did it every which way this week. They played stifling defense against Boston, earning the 2-0 shutout win. They zoomed out to a three goal lead against Pittsburgh, only to give it all back in a 3-minute span in the third period… only to then turn around and grab the two points in a shootout. They even got a needed road win with backup goaltender Wade Dubielewicz in net on Friday. As helpful as The Dube’s play was, don’t look for him to play much more down the stretch, as the Jackets make the full on push for the playoffs. Check the recap links for more on each game…

Playoff Update

We’ve begun running this section, thanks to the data provided at the wonderful Sports Club Stats website that runs daily simulations and predicts probability of playoff finishes by conference. This site is updated daily, and also weights each game to show how every outcome affects each team in the race.

The poor LA Kings. Back off my list again, as they’re down to 2.0%. Also close to being moved off the list for an entirely different reason are the Canucks, as they are close to all but locking up the #5 spot. The Jackets did some solid work in solidifying themselves into the sixth spot with their three big wins this week.  That’s not to say it’s locked up; there are still plenty of teams in the thick of it, though the Jackets have definitely bought themselves some breathing room. This week’s Western Conference playoff probabilities standings, thanks to Sports Club Stats:

(key: points – derived from record, 2 pts for a win, 0 for a loss, 1 for an overtime loss; G-I-H – games in hand; this number is the amount of games the team has left subtracted from the number of games played by the team who has played the most in the conference; Record – the team’s record, with wins, losses, and overtime losses [shoot-out losses count as overtime losses]; Playoff% is the probability in percent of the team making the playoffs based on their simulations)

Up Next

Updating the expanded “Up Next” section from last week, we’ll continue taking a longer-view look at the schedule the rest of the way, now that we’re down to 12 games remaining. The Jackets have been in the midst of a tough stretch, but have risen to the challenge so far. They have one home game this week before heading on the road to Florida. The  Jackets have an even six home and road games the rest of the way.

The guys at The Dispatch have maintained for most of the year that the Jackets needed to get to 91 points to qualify (picking that number because that’s the point total Nashville had last year to earn the eighth seed). I’ve always been a little more pessimistic since there are so many teams hanging around, but the silver lining there is that with all of these teams playing each other down the stretch generally somebody’s going to be losing ground every night. So, for the sake of argument and projection, let’s say that the Jackets need to get 13 or 14 points in their last 12 games. Possible results that would earn those point totals:

That’s still a lot of possibilities, but being realistic: the Jackets have 6 OT/SO losses through the first 70 games (in other words, 1 OTL every 11.7 games, or 0.086 OTL/Game). Using that math, let’s suggest that anything more than two OTLs is unlikely. This means that the Jackets basically need to go 7-5-0, 6-5-1, or 6-4-2. Summary: they really need to win at least six of their final 12 games. They’ve won 36 of their first 70, or just over half, so they’re actually in pretty good shape if they can keep their level up play where it has been.

Sounds easy enough, right? Let’s take a full look at the schedule the rest of the way, which is jam-packed through March:

That’s a lot to digest, perhaps. In the updated “record” column, I’ve added the results/Jackets’ record for games that have been played since we started this last week. I’ve also added X’s to the games-past that the Jackets won. In addition, I’ve left the six X’s in from last week, which were for the games that I felt the Jackets should have a better-than-average expectation to win. Well, knowing what we know, the Jackets have to win those six games, plus find at least one other point or two along the way to get to that (arbitrary) 91-point mark. The Jackets got six points last week that I was not banking on them getting, which definitely helps their case.

Full Schedule

Injury Update

The Jackets got Michael Peca back this week, but are still without Fredrik Modin and Jason Chimera. It looks like it might be faulty to count on either of these guys getting back before the regular season ends. If the Jackets make the playoffs, perhaps… but let’s not get crazy!

Why Hitch Is A Good Coach Quotes of the Week

Chemistry always starts with confrontation.
–Coach Ken Hitchcock, talking about the team’s strong chemistry, and pointing out that it didn’t develop until the players felt comfortable enough to confront each other and hold each other accountable.

I think Hitch said it the right way when he talked to us after the game. We’re all disappointed as a group, players and coaches, and there are a lot of things to be disappointed with. But now is not the time to feel sorry for ourselves. We’ll look at what we allowed to happen, get back to work and correct it.
–Center Michael Peca, discussing the post-game reactions to the shut-out loss to Detroit at home on Sunday.

You hate to end the week like this. The positive part is, the schedule calms down a little. We can regroup. This is not a cakewalk into the playoffs. My experience is that teams that respond well here, and at this time of the year — they do well once the playoffs roll around. It’s an important time.
–Forward RJ Umberger, also on the Detroit game and on the road ahead. Umberger played for Hitchcock when both were in Philadelphia, as well.

I’m not even looking at the cushion. To me, we’ll get in if we play well enough. We’re going to have to play a lot better and more energized than we did today. And we will.
–Hitchcock, talking about the perceived cushion in points that the Jackets have.

If you’ve ever wondered about Ken Hitchcock, his style, and how it works on a team level, these quotes sum it up better than anything I can write. Accountability. Not taking anything for granted. Also, not dwelling on either the highs or the lows. That’s what has made this club what it is right now.