While We’re Waiting… Eric Wright Opens Up, Tribe Doing Nothing and Coco Needs a Maid
November 18, 2010Cavs Offbeat: The (Hopeful) Death of the Dribble-First Offense
November 18, 2010Yesterday, in all of his communicative glory, Indians’ head honcho Paul Dolan reminded the fans of what they’ve come to expect: the Indians won’t be spending in the free agent market this off season. According to Dolan:
“It’s not the right time to spend. No question about that. It’s not the right time to spend in the cycle of this franchise.The spending is deficit spending. When New York and Boston spend, they’re spending from their profits. It’s a riskier proposition for clubs like us to spend. We’re taking a far greater financial risk than whatever it is a large-market club spends on a large free agent. It’s the unfortunate nature of our game.”
Whatevs. We’ve heard this before. And it’s hard to argue with the logic there, but it’s hardly the pep rally speech to get a tired and tortured fanbase excited. Or buying tickets.
But I’m guessing most of you have already come to terms with this fact anyway. Sure, we’ll probably go after a few minor league free agents like we did last year, hoping for one or two to contribute. The Shelley Duncans and Austin Kearnses of the World can use Cleveland to showcase their skills to the rest of the league, while the Indians get some production out of them at league-minimum prices. Part of this strategy is dictated by the financial reality of the Cleveland Indians that Dolan laid out: teams that rank last in attendance don’t, as a rule, spend wildly in free agency. But there’s also some reason to think that avoiding the free agency route is wise in general (as FAs are simply too expensive for what they provide—a poor investment strategy), and specifically for a club like the Indians (who have so many players they need answers on going forward).
But whether the motivation is dollars or development, the point remains: the Indians aren’t likely to add a free agent who they’ll actually have to “bid on.” So the 2011 season will hinge on the development of the talent we already have in-house. Will Grady Sizemore ever get healthy? Is Matt LaPorta an MLB hitter? Can Carlos Santana pick up where he gruesomely left off? Is Carlos Carrasco a young ace or just another guy? Can Justin Masterson develop any consistency, or is he destined for great starts sporadically dropped in among a bunch of stinkers? And on and on. 2011 will likely be about answering these questions, and hopefully answering in the affirmative.
So if this is the team we have, the question, obviously, is what we can expect from them going forward. I’m going to divide the team roughly between pitchers and position players to check it out, and spend today being as optimistic as possible.
First, the position players. Assuming we don’t make any additions—or that the additions we do make are complementary in nature—the lineup will probably look something like this next season:
C | Carlos Santana |
1B | Matt LaPorta |
2B | Jason Donald |
3B | Jayson Nix |
SS | Asdrubal Cabrera |
LF | Michael Brantley |
CF | Grady Sizemore |
RF | Shin-Soo Choo |
DH | Travis Hafner |
I think it’s safe to say that, barring injury, there’s only one sure thing in that lineup: Shin-Soo Choo. Outside of him, I could make an argument that each guy could develop into an impact player or be below replacement level.
So, because it’s getting cold and because we’re Clevelanders and because we need hope, let’s look at a best-case scenario, using Wins Above Replacement. Here are the numbers this lineup could put up next season if everything goes right:
Player | WAR 2011 |
Carlos Santana | 5.0 |
Matt LaPorta | 3.5 |
Jason Donald | 1.0 |
Jayson Nix | 1.0 |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 3.5 |
Michael Brantley | 3.0 |
Grady Sizemore | 5.0 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 5.0 |
Travis Hafner | 3.5 |
TOTAL | 30.5 |
Now, let me say again: this is wild November optimism of the most cockeyed sort. This is assuming that Carlos Santana contributes (both offensively and defensively) at the same level as Choo—one of the most productive players in baseball. This is assuming Travis Hafner’s shoulder is actually healed AND that he can PLAY more than three times a week AND that his 2004 through 2006 seasons were indicative of an ability that has not since departed. This is assuming that Grady Sizemore can resemble the player he was in 2006, when he led the AL in WAR at 7.3*. This is assuming Matt LaPorta doesn’t stink and Michael Brantley can get on base more than 35% of the time while playing stellar defense. This is assuming A LOT.
*Justin Morneau won the AL MVP in 2006 for reasons that continue to elude me. If you weren’t going to give it to Sizemore, whose candidacy admittedly depended on the incorporation of defense, then you could have voted for David Ortiz or Joe Mauer or Carlos Guillen or Derek Jeter or (yes, it’s true) Travis Hafner. Morneau ranked 17th in WAR in 2006, behind such stalwarts as Reed Johnson and Ramon Hernandez. But he was second in the league in RBI, so I guess there’s that. He also has nice eyes, I suppose, which should count as much as RBI totals. Regardless, v2006 Grady will always be my favorite baseball player. Perhaps that skews my judgment a wee bit.
So if all goes as well as possible, we’d be getting over 30 wins out of this group. That’s on top of the 45 or so wins that you get for being “replacement level”. Basically, if the position players can produce like I’m talking about, we could have AAA pitching and still win 75 games next season.
And that’s a good thing. Because I’m a bit worried about the pitching. Sound familiar? Here are the guys I see making the opening day rotation (we can talk about Alex White another day, but I do have some thoughts on his eventual impact).
SP1 | Fausto Carmona |
SP2 | Justin Masterson |
SP3 | Carlos Carrasco |
SP4 | Mitch Talbot |
SP5 | Jeanmar Gomez |
That is, to me, a strikingly uninspiring group. If you’ve read my work, you know I’m high on Carlos Carrasco, but that’s about it. Fausto is an obvious question mark, and sorely miscast as a #1 starter. Justin Masterson is absolutely one of my favorite players, but even I have my days when I wonder if he should be in a starting rotation, much less in the #2 slot. Talbot and Gomez (and the rest of the fodder—Tomlin/Laffey/Huff) are, at best, fringe major leaguers.
So here is my most optimistic assessment of this motley crüe’s performance in 2011, again, using Wins Above Replacement:
WAR 2011 | |
Fausto Carmona | 3.0 |
Justin Masterson | 2.0 |
Carlos Carrasco | 2.5 |
Mitch Talbot | 1.0 |
Jeanmar Gomez | 0.5 |
TOTAL | 9.0 |
In Fausto’s best season—that magical 2007 when Tori Hunter said that batting against Fausto was like trying to hit with a hangover—he amassed 4.2 WAR. Last season, it was 2.7. It’s hard for me to think he’s going to recapture his old ways, considering his change in approach, so I’m calling 3.0 wins a ceiling for him. Justin Masterson, believe it or not, posted a 2.2 WAR in 2010. I suppose he could get much better, but do we have reason to believe he will? Carlos Carrasco has upside aplenty, but projecting him beyond 2.5 WAR seems more foolish than even I’m prepared to sound. Mitch Talbot and Jeanmar Gomez are, as Steve Buffum might say, two of the pitchers we’ve ever had on this team. Or as I would say: they’re guys. They’re just guys.
So again, I’m being as optimistic as I can be about this club right now, and I’m coming up with the following:
45 wins (replacement level) + 30 wins (position players) + 9.0 wins (starting pitching) = 84 wins.
You think Pure Rage and his merry men have six extra wins lying around the bullpen? After all, we’re being optimistic. Might as well shoot for 90, right?
Next time I’m going to flip the coin and look at what might happen if all goes wrong in 2011. You should be used to that feeling, right? What if they all get hurt? What if they all stink? Where and how might we fill holes? And why might that be a good thing?
But until then, let’s enjoy a few days of warm-fuzzies. Mkay?
26 Comments
Here’s what I hear when I read that Dolan quote…
“Dear Indians Fans,
Why bother?
Sincerely,
Paul Dolan”
I love baseball…can’t stand MLB
The team isn’t good enough to produce profits to improve the team, so the team just languishes in mediocrity? How about investing some money with the hope that the injection of talent improves the team… and then you make profits?
Anyway, it’s pointless to even worry about this anymore. Cleveland baseball fans’ only hope is that when their 1 or 2 year window of opportunity occurs, every decade or so, it just doesn’t happen at the same time the Tampa Bay Rays or KC Royals windows come along… and that the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels aren’t absolutely loaded during that brief moment in time, as well.
I love how fans continue to think that even if the Tribe wanted to play in free agency that they would actually get those coveted players.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Dolan should avoid this “throw up my hands” talk because it reeks of playing the victim.
But let’s say for a moment that they do go after Cliff Lee. Don’t you think the Yankees will keep adding years and money to the pot until they get their guy? The big boys have an unlimited budget and they can out buy their free agency mistakes. The Tribe can’t so why even get into an arms race?
After those top tier guys are gone, now you are just asking the Tribe to overpay for average players coming off (usually) career years and looking to cash in. Not a good investment either.
Stick to the draft and trades. I like that strategy. Go free agency when you need just one more piece to put you over the top.
@5KMD — I’d be all for the Dolans not reminding me of the situation, but what does he do when he’s repeatedly asking about it? Go Bill Belicheck on them?
Honestly, though, Shapiro and Co. just need to be more successful when they spend the money. $10 million for Kerry Wood?
I lurk here, but I just have to say…I was reading the PD boards (yeah, i know, big mistake) and some poster was profligating himself over the pitching that SF had put together to win the WS. Except his premise, used to bash the Dolan’s stinginess was all wrong. The Giants, being another “small market” team, DIDNT go all free agent on their fan base…all FOUR of their playoff starters were homegrown, through the draft, after a string of horrible seasons that gave them high draft order. (I’ll ignore Barry Zito so my point still stands…LOL)
I’m waiting patiently (ok, maybe not the Webster’s def of patient) for White and Pomeranz, as well as the Carrascos and Mastersons of the world…to hit the scene. And maybe, just maybe, that will be 2011. Go Tribe!
“I’ll ignore Barry Zito so my point still stands…LOL”
You can ignore him because SF did too. He didn’t even make the postseason roster.
Yeah, I know. I could have been more explicit, but all you erudite Tribe fans knew the scoop, anyway.
And I forgot to say: Jon, I love your articles. 98% on point. And all the rest of em are pretty damn good too!
How in the world does the PD tolerate all those posters? If I were them, I’d shut down the comments section. FFS!
@DC Tribe fan: I could — and do — talk for hours about the horrendous-ness (I know, not a word) of the PD’s online commentariat. They are so ignorant and negative and racist and…well, let’s just say that they’re the lowest common denominator (they also give Clevelanders a bad name – when I want to forward a PD online article to an out-of-town friend, I have to scan the comments to see if there’s anything too ugly there – and there often is).
However, I think they drive traffic to the site which means eyeballs which means advertising revenue. Therefore, the PD tolerates all of the negativity and hate.
Makes me so glad that WFNY has adopted such a good posting policy.
Oh, and great article, Steiner!
I’m so torn on how to feel about this. I know that all we have to do is look at MLB for the REAL problem here. At the same time I feel like this organization has been horribly mismanaged. The front office folks have proven they’re lack of an eye for talent by awarding all the wrong guys with huge contracts. Look, I know you can’t predict guys will fall off or get hurt but when I look around the league I don’t see many teams that have fallen into similar talent money pits and if they did at some point they found a way to move the guy. I just can’t justify spending money (and lately it seems like a boat load of it if you want food or drinks etc) to watch this team nose dive despite the up and coming talent. And, lets remember that said talent may or may not pan out which can lead to another decade drought. I will always support this team but I can’t see myself supporting this ownership.
Thanks for the kind words, peeps.
Not to get too much tunnel-vision here and miss the point completely, but I think I see the Barry Zito thing a bit differently. And I think the distinction is important. Bear with me.
When people like Rob Neyer say that the Giants “basically had a $60 million payroll” because the money they were throwing at Zito and Rowand and a few others didn’t result in wins, they’re missing the point entirely. All teams have mistakes on their rosters: you can’t just cut out the mistakes and only count the productive guys.
This gets back to that margin of error point. If we want to say that the Giants won with a $60 million payroll, then we have to say that the Indians played 2010 with a $10 million payroll (Wood, Hafner, Westbrook, Sizemore, Peralta all either struggled or didn’t play or were traded). So if you’re only counting “productive” money, no team spends more than about $70 or $80 million (that’s a guess, but I’m sure someone could look it up–or it can be my Thanksgiving project).
Thinking like this doesn’t get us any closer to bridging the gap between organizations that can wallpaper over mistakes (Giants) and those who can’t (ahem…). SoI find that sort of talk misleading.
This is where I’ll get some resistance, but BECAUSE the Indians can’t wallpaper over mistakes (which I think we can all agree on), I believe that it’s best not to commit too much money to any player–after all, it’s free agent signings that turn into costly mistakes more often and expensively than any other type of move. This need to avoid mistakes is why I think it would be stupid to give big bucks to any FAs, both now and probably in the future.
Travis’s shadow looms large in my fears, no doubt. So many of the current problems stem from that contract, and I’m loathe to have the team make a mistake like that again.
We are destined (or should I say “condemned”?) to win and lose with young, cheap players. I believe this strategy can produce a winner, though not a sustainable one. If you want your team to be dominant for more than a three or four year stretch, buy a map of the Bronx. (There are 27 or so other teams who don’t make the playoffs every year, though. Remember that.)
But don’t tell me that the Giants won with a $60 million payroll.
End of weird, non-sequitory rant.
@ Jon
Honestly, that wasnt my position at all, that the Giants had won it with a $60M payroll. I was even too lazy to actually look up their payroll..i know, i know…not good posture for a lurker from out of town.
My point was simply that the Giants 4 playoff starters were all homegrown, so it CAN be done. Obviously, the Tribe hopes to do it too, as does every MLB team if they can–except the Spanks and Sux, and even Phillies ( who are proving they love big free-agent contracts for pitchers as well)…but I digress.
Hey, I’m a Tribe fan first; my sabremetric instincts and talents are pretty much non-existent. So back to my point….I think we have great reason to be optimistic that, over the next 2-3 years, and MAYBE next year, the names White, Pomeranz, Hagadone, Carrasco, Judy, Gardner, etc…will produce some consistency.
As for Dolan, I’d hate to be a PR/Marketing guy for the Indians. Why does the guy feel a need to answer the question? Just re-direct the answer to the stockpiled arms all the way down the..oh never mind, he’s a PR nightmare.
And finally, spending any real $$ at third base doesn’t really make much sense, to get a few more slugging percentages or a few less errors. Winning 69 games vs 65 didn’t get anyone dancing for joy.
GO Tribe!
I’m wondering how much Aaron Harang will go for on the open market. He might be a possible Indians reclamation project.
@4 – That’s a point I always bring up: for as tight as the Indians are with their purse strings, they make TERRIBLE decisions when they do final spend money. The Hafner deal (a 30+ year old DH!), Kerry Wood, David Delucci…
@8 – The PD posters, whenever I’m brave enough to read them, I’m not sure if I should laugh or be very, very afraid. It’s the inernet version of the Mos Eisley spaceport – you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Agreed DC,
Wasn’t trying to swipe at your point so much as to get away from the notion that the Giants face similar straits to true “small market teams.” I was mostly responding to something Neyer wrote last week that ticked me off, and bringing up the Giants just sparked my memory.
@11 – If I’m Dolan, I talk about the confidence I have in our young players. I spin it as – why waste money on old, busted players when you’ve got all these future studs?
Wasn’t this the same place that posted something last week about just wishing the FO was honest with the fans? Now they are, and we’ve got a problem with that, too?
“You can’t handle the truth!” – Paul Dolan
This is the kind of stuff that makes me want to tackle an 8 year-old Jets fan…
@14
you put it better than i did…exactly!
@15
fine, he can be honest. He won’t spend money. As an owner, why can’t he then go on to extoll the virtues of the farm system, and at least ATTEMPT to inspire the fan base that it actually exists?
Damn, now I’m a lurker who’s posted 3x on this topic. I better crawl back into my cave and read about how the NATS front office wont spend $$, won’t sign Adam Dunn, can’t find consistency in their young homegrown pitching staff….oh, and if you need a break from the PD, try the WAPO. Egad.
Not only was it the same place, it was the same writer. But you might be mischaracterizing what I wrote then. My point last week was that this Front Office has done a poor job of inspiring the masses. I never said they weren’t honest, just bad at communicating. Click that first hyperlink if you don’t believe me.
And like I wrote here today, I agree with Dolan’s logic: the Indians shouldn’t be spending in free agency. But maybe he could’ve said, as has been suggested in the comments, “We believe in the talent on this roster, and diluting it with FA additions is not only financially stupid (which I, as the owner care about) but organizationally stupid (which all fans should care about) as it will not allow us to develop our core players.”
@Jon – so what you are telling me is that the A’s are going to regret giving over $15mil/year to Beltre?
(just needed to interject that here as the A’s should know better since a team in their own division made the huge mistake the last time Beltre had 1 good year for a big market team and parlayed that into a roster crippling contract)
While it’s true that you can throw money at bad player investments in free agency, going into the winter saying you starkly refuse to use free agency to improve your team’s chances to win is asinine.
While it is easy to point to free agents that have not been worth their salary, there are also plenty of free agents who have signed to reasonable contracts and helped their teams win games. Paul Dolan is saying that the organization won’t look for those players, because they don’t have the money to try to win games that way.
That isn’t learning to operate with a small payroll – that’s refusing to ante into the poker game because you don’t want to risk your money.
Besides, 2008 proved that “spending when the time is right” has been a lie ever since it was first uttered.
2007…One win from the World Series.
2011…no hope for success.
Thanks Mr. Dolan! It’s been a great 4 years!
These comments are a breath of fresh air. It sickens me to read PD posters call themselves fans while our attendance hasn’t cracked the top 20 since 2002 (including 2005 and 2007 in which we won 93 and 96 games respectively). This is a bad baseball town. I hate to be so blunt about it but it’s as simple as that.
Jon – I don’t really know how the FO is supposed to inspire the masses. I believe I commented on it then (though, admittedly, I arrived late to the party), but my sentiment is still the same: A turd is a turd. Sugar coat it, cover it in chocolate, I don’t care – it’s still a turd. It’s hard to inspire people to come to dinner when that’s what you’re serving, regardless of how pretty the invitation is.
Saying that you believe in the core players that didn’t win 70 games last year is also kind of hollow, as far as actual results on the field go. With the same team, is it really fair to expect them go +21 and win 90 games this year? It isn’t likely. Hell, I believe in my ability to win the lottery (I have all the skills required), but that doesn’t mean I can realistically expect it.
I’m certainly not disagreeing with the logic or reality of how this team needs to be built, I just think that these are the rantings of someone who is burnt out on losing.
[…] meetings, Rule 5 and the upcoming free agency period, and since we have already been told that the Indians will not be participating much in either free agency or (subsequently) winter meetings, we can take a looksee as to what players […]
[…] to prove themselves somewhere before a contender will give them a shot. I hated Paul Dolan’s statement the other day. Made me sick. Are we on the same page here? […]
[…] from these next four Browns games? Did Paul Dolan make a bit of a bonehead move by announcing that the team isn’t participating in free agency? And can the Cavaliers maintain this pace with the schedule getting […]
[…] were patiently waiting to see the outcome of these games based on the potential of losing their WAR-leading outfielder to a military stint, Choo reflects on his time with his team, stating that there was a lot more to […]