While We’re Waiting…Heat Lose, Cliff Lee Spouts Off, and Mike Bell?
October 27, 2010Joe Tait Undergoes Surgery
October 27, 2010Andrew and Rick already provided some thoughts on the upcoming season of basketball in Cleveland. With tonight being the opening tip of the “new expression,” I felt that I should chime in with my own take…
The forecasts are everywhere. From Sports Illustrated and ESPN all the way down to local affiliates and the occasional independent blog. Where will the Cavs finish? Who will be the leading scorer? What are people going to do on December 2nd!?
Truth is, we don’t know. Though we know the roster on opening day, no one knows what will happen between now and next June as the current Cavaliers are armed with trade chips, expiring contracts and a multimillion dollar trade exemption. New uniforms, a new team shop, a new head coach and a few new nameplates in the Cavaliers locker room.
Same owner, same fans…all armed with the same desire to win.
But none of them are certain (save for the quasidelusional) that said winning is going to happen this year. Or even next. This current crop of Cavaliers will be a lot of “fun” to watch – they’re going to run, they’re going to get contribution from a handful of different players, and certain guys that may not have had a chance to shine in years past will finally get their shots. Pun fully intended.
The first hurdle for this franchise, in these two eyes, will come around mid-December. The Cavaliers will head on the road for a four-game run that will take them to Houston, Oklahoma City, Miami and Indiana. Following this trip, they will have played 26 games; approximately one-third of the entire season.
Good news is, between tonight and December 18th, the Cavaliers will have played New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Indiana twice with games against Toronto, Washington, Detroit and Sacramento. With all respect due to those teams listed here, these are the squads near which Cleveland has been listed in almost every publication when it comes to forecasting their respective successes. Alas, the first 26 games (hopefully fully healthy, favorable match-ups) should provide the Cavaliers with what should be a solid gauge of where this team is heading. All this team can ask for during this post-LeBron era is some direction, and a healthy sample should provide just that.
The bad news comes if this team is 5-21 after said stretch.
That’s when things change. While the team is not trying to actively trade anyone at this stage – perceived values are at a low, other teams are unsure of what their situation will be come mid-season – the phones will start ringing. The expiring contracts and veteran experience of Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker could be for sale. Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison could see their names in the rumor mill as teams look to bolster their bench scoring. And, while he’s considered untouchable at this point, Anderson Varejao could be calling another city home by late-February.
He’s 28-years old on a rebuilding team; when he signed his six-year deal, he assumed it would be six more seasons with LeBron James. Then again, we all did. Couple all of this with the facts that Dan Fegan has been looking to get Andy in a new city for years and that Varejao is hands down the team’s biggest asset at this point, and there is a very, very good chance he is moved for what will be much-needed young talent and/or draft selections.
At that point, your starting backcourt could be a combination of Ramon Sessions and Daniel Gibson, Jawad Williams could be your starting small forward, and (huge gulp) Ryan Hollins could have his name called by Ahamad Crump as your starting center. This could be a legal version of Gilbert Arenas bringing a gun to work and disrupting any short-term success – it’s will be evil, but it may be a necessary evil.
Your leading scorer come seasons end will likely not ecclipse 20 points per night. The major media outlets will cast dispersions and likely bring up Dan Gilbert’s comic sans-written tirade from the night of The Decision where he guaranteed a title before the Miami Heat. At this point, the Heat will likely have a .700 winning percentage, Cleveland will be up in arms, and Flash Seats will be one of the fastest growing companies in the history of online business.
But when it’s all said and done, regardless of whether or not the Cavs make the playoffs or provide one of the worst records that the NBA has ever seen, they will have a few things on their side: an owner willing to do what it takes to win, a head coach that has won multiple championships as a player and has taken on rebuilding projects as a coach, and (ideally) a select few pieces that will provide this franchise with a core from which to build. In fact, with all due respect to his predecessors, Scott may be the most complete coach that this team has seen since Lenny Wilkens. At this stage, it is up to Chris Grant and company to provide him with his Brad Daugherty and Mark Price.
For fans looking to get over the LeBron James hangover, those that are ready to embrace “the new,” they will have ample time to do so throughout the course of the 2010-11 season. It will definitely be a change, but for every person who is tired of all things LeBron James, change will be necessary. And with said change will be some highs and some lows, a considerable decline in national attention, a considerable increase in national pot shots and perhaps a few empty wine-colored seats courtside on those FOX Sports Ohio broadcasts.
But to wrap things up with a cliché (for good measure), it’s always darkest before the dawn. And if you’re in need of a silver lining with tip-off a few hours away, even if the Cavaliers finish with less than 20 wins this season and many of the names on the back of the jerseys are relatively unknown, at least they won’t be wearing black and electric blue. That alone puts us all in a better place than we were before 2003.
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Editor’s note:Those Cavs fans in attendance for tonight’s game should attempt to get their hands on the inaugural edition of The Cavs Zine that was put together by a few Cleveland-centric scribes. Put together by Jack (@WayneEmbrysKids), the Zine features Esquire’s Scott Raab, Stepien Rules’ Brendan Bowers, Benjamin Cox, Kirsten Brownrigg, Justin from Concede330, Alex from PodCavs as well as yours truly.
A limited number of The Zine will be handed out prior to tonight’s tip-off. If anything, it’s worth grabbing if only for the throwback cover and Raab’s take on what it’s like to experience a championship first hand. Epic work all around and I’m glad to have been a part.
16 Comments
Would this really be horrible? If the team is floundering and we can unload all our aging players and contracts for young talent and draft picks we still have a future. You could almost argue that is better than having one all time great player with no young talent and no draft picks.
Bad would an 13-13 record with the team staying intact, floundering to multiple 40-45 win seasons just to get knocked out of the first round every year. THAT is where I do not want to be.
I really, really enjoy Scott Raab’s writing. I highly recommend him to all. I wonder how I can get my hands on the Cavs Zine?
Excited for the tip off to our new season.
Why the sudden obsession with crashing and burning so we can get better? Why is this a plan that everyone advocates specifically for the Cavs? Should Milwaukee trade all their players because they’re a borderline playoff team with no star? Should Phoenix, San Antonio, Utah, Portland, Atlanta, all trade their older stars and throw the season, hoping for a good pick, because they don’t have a great chance at a championship? As (Herman Edwards?) said, “You play to win the game!”
Besides, what will we get for Mo/Andy/’Twan? If a contender wants them, the draft picks will suck. Are we going to trade for, say, San Antonio’s 2018 pick, in the hopes that by then they’ll be in the lottery?
Breaking down and rebuilding is overrated. It takes a loooong time and is a total crap-shoot. For every success story, there are ten failures. With a little luck, we’ll be a .500 team. We have some cap space, and some assets. Maybe we can trade up at that point for a higher quality player from a rebuilding team.
And hey, if we’re 5-21 after 26 games, we won’t need to give up our few good assets in order to get a high pick. We’ll get a top five pick the natural way, and be all ready to rise again next year!
Note: I’m not hoping we crash and burn, just saying if we did would it really be that bad?
The last thing I want is a repeat of 93-03. I don’t think it will happen because we have a better front office who won’t repeatedly make one step forward two steps back moves.
If we are competing in the 2nd round of the playoffs, that’s good. If we are getting swept in the first round AND not getting a good draft slot because of it that is worse than blowing it up and starting over.
@ Swig: totally agree. But read the Gilbert interview in the PD – competing for any playoff spot is what he wants now. And he says he’s most engaged with the team around draft/trade deadline times. That is an “uh-oh” for me.
“When he signed his six-year deal, he assumed it would be six more seasons with LeBron James…” Scott, no idea why you assume that.
@4 – This isn’t an all of a sudden thing. Lots of people wanted this season to be a loss to get another marquee player. This debate has been going on since ELbj left. Those teams you mentioned have marquee players: Jennings(MIL), Ginobli/Duncan/Parker(SA), Milsap/Williams (Utah), Johnson/Smith (Atl)…etc.
Those may not be “Stars” like Lebron and Wade but I would argue they are better than what the cavs are putting on the floor.
@ Stin: If it’s so terrible to play hard, entertain, and have a chance to play spoiler in the 1st/2nd round, then all of thos teams are in the same position. Yeah, they might last another few games in round two, even maybe get swept in the conference finals. But isn’t this supposed to be all about championships?
Besides, it’s a two sided coin. If rebuilding from scratch was foolproof, I’d be more inclined to try it.
@Roos – I hear you. I was really torn on what they should do. Like Swig said earlier, I would just hate for them to get stuck on the 8th seed playoff treadmill for 2 or 3 years. I’d love for this team to be competitive and be able to bring in a few key younger FA’s but I’m not entirely sure that can be done.
It’s a tough call because you have teams like Detroit/Washington that tried this type of rebuilding and have been mediocre at best. It’s easy to look at teams like Ok. City/Portland/even Sacramento (much improved) and say drafting is the key. In the end I trust the FO and Dan Gilbert to put together a winner. It’s out of my hands anyways. 🙂
and also featured in the Cavs Zine, look for my ANTI-LeBron-themed comic strip, a guest piece I did for a friend over at http://www.smallmarketsports.com
{end shameless plug}
(and BTW, the latest comic at http://www.smallmarketsports.com is a slam on Harrison. *ahem*)
As a casual basketball fan, I’m not interested in round 1 knockouts year after year. That will get old quickly, esp after what we have been accustomed to.
I guess it’s a matter of what Gilbert and his staff thinks is best – get in the lottery ASAP or just get in the playoffs at any cost.
My goal is to have has many high round draft picks following what i really hope is a lockout year. The only issue is that the nba would be dead to almost everyone if they dint play a year, figures since it would help the cavs a ton
I keep advocating for this year and this year only, the Cavs play to win and see if they can sneak into the playoffs. I’d rather we compete for a year to show up “the [Feminine Hygiene Product] King Of South Beach” and at the end of the year regardless of outcome, we blow it all up.
I want the Heat in the first round and I want the Cavs to put the fear of God into LeBron that maybe he made the wrong decision for leaving.
The little-discussed caveat here is that the draft this year could very well be the worst draft in NBA history. If the NBA locks out and the 2011-2012 season is less than 82 games, that means that young draftees don’t get to take their salary (which, by the way, they’ll be getting under the new CBA — so they won’t even have the slightest idea what kind of a salary they’d get for whatever pick they get drafted at) or get NBA experience — meaning star underclassmen who would normally be a lock for declaring early are far more likely to stay at college with the kickbacks, light schedule, partying and TV appearances.
It could end up being a draft made up of almost 100% seniors, meaning that at the end of the day, Kyle Singler, Jimmer Fredette, and Chris Wright could be your top 3 picks. That’s how bad this draft could end up. That’s one of the few reasons I think it would be dumb to blow up just to blow up. It’d be one thing if it was a year like last year, with top prospects all around and an incentive for underclassmen to bounce early to get the last rookie scale contracts in a good CBA for rooks. But it isn’t.
It has every sign of being a 2000-ish year, and for the Cavs to tank a season just to get Kyle Singler with the number one pick would be awful. And not worth it at all, let’s be honest. And it’s a distinct possibility, one that all the doom and gloom “let’s blow this up” analysts don’t seem to note.
[…] insinuated previously at WFNY, this news comes as little surprise given that Varejao is a 28-year old, talented big man who is now on a roster that is at least two […]