The WFNY email Conversation: Last Night’s Debacle
May 12, 2010WFNY on TV: WKYC’s Morning Show
May 12, 2010Numbers Don’t Lie? We are here to test that myth today at WFNY. For a special chat, here’s Mark Cameron of the aptly named NumbersDont.com. Cameron also does on-the-side work for Cavs: The Blog and hosted a pair of roundtable chats earlier in the year (here and here). Enjoy folks.
Topic 1: Explain Cleveland’s performances in this series
Rosen: So what in the world just happened out there last night? Or in games two and four? It seemed like the Cavs were an entirely different team than the one that has 127 regular season wins over the past two years.
Cameron: Most of Cleveland’s performance hinges on heart and desire. I don’t think there are too many people out there that feel Boston is truly the better team. For some reason, some people suggest team chemistry issues, the Cavaliers just aren’t going out there and giving it their all. And it starts with #23.
Taking 14 shots in a crucial game just isn’t going to cut it. There’s a lot of unacceptable “hustle stats” out there as well. In the past two games the Cavs have been outrebounded 88-64 and outscored 32-4 in second chance points. There’s just not a lot of heart out there and that’s the biggest thing missing this series.
Rosen: Games two and four ranked as two of the five worst outside shooting performances of the entire year, and that’s not even getting into last night’s debacle. But the thing that troubles me the most is probably the fact that two of these losses happened at home. Coming into this series in the last two years, the Cavs were 83-9 (.902 pct) with a +11.58 differential at home. Of those 9 losses, three were late regular season games in which the Cavs had already clinched the #1 seed and only three were by more than three points.
Cameron: There’s no doubt about it, getting blown out at home twice is unbelievably frustrating for the fans. And when the players look like they don’t really care, it’s particularly painful.
Rosen: Absolutely. These were the two biggest home losses in the “Mo Williams era” by a wide margin and could be the most devastating in franchise history. But what can we learn at all from these games besides the fact it seemed like the Cavs didn’t care and weren’t hustling?
Cameron: I’m not really sure if there is a true learning point here. It’s frustrating because when there are true mismatches on the court it’s easy for someone like Danny Ferry to point out changes that need to be made. But when it’s a lack of desire, it’s hard to tell what has to be done. One thing’s for sure though. For the Cavaliers to win their next game, there absolutely has to be defensively accountability.
Mo Williams can’t casually stroll into the huddle after getting torched by Ray Allen in the first half and then letting Rondo score 16 second half points after Anthony Parker held him scoreless in the first 24 minutes. There needs to be accountability for LeBron James as well. I really liked the way Charles Barkley ripped into him on the postgame last night preaching accountability, and wish his coaches and teammates would do the same.
Rosen: That’s definitely true. Kevin Arnovitz’s True Hoop video criticizing LeBron’s play also did a great job of breaking down why exactly he looked so off. The defense didn’t care and the offense couldn’t make a shot. I just wonder as well what is more important to worry about, the 107 points Boston is averaging in their wins, or the 87 points Cleveland is averaging in their losses. Both are incredibly uncharacteristic of a LeBron James/Mike Brown team.
Topic 2: What the Cavs can do next against Boston
Cameron: Yeah, that 20 point margin speaks volumes about how the losses have been played. As far as next game, the Cavaliers have to come out and set the tone. LeBron needs to be aggressive and come out shooting like he did in game three. In the two wins, he is averaging 23.0 shots a game, whereas he’s only shooting 15.7 shots per game in the three losses.
The team as a whole needs to start rebounding better as well. In only one of the four regular season matchups did the Cavaliers allow the Celtics to grab more than 40 rebounds and in only 37.8% of their 82 games did they allow opponents to reach 41 rebounds. However, in four of the five games the Cavs have allowed the Celtics to exceed 40 total rebounds. That 80% number is significantly higher and proves that the Cavaliers haven’t been putting in the effort on the defensive end of the basketball. The only game they didn’t allow Boston to grab over 40 rebounds was that game three, when they looked mad and possessed. I think they need that effort to come away with a game six win.
Cameron: Just to follow that up, I do think the chances are decent that they win game six. Down 3-2 to Orlando last year I had little faith that they could win in that arena, where they were 0-4 on the season. Cleveland, on the other hand, has looked better in Boston as of late than in Cleveland. This also meshes in with the fact that the Cavs’ road record and Boston’s road record are both better than the Celtics’ home record. I’d say the Cavaliers have a 60% chance of stealing game six, but that’s all contingent on how they show up. After the first half that number will swing like a pendulum… I just don’t know which direction.
Rosen: The Cavaliers will also need to find a way to hit a jump shot. In the three losses, the team is averaging just 0.65 points per jumper/three-pointer with 130 attempts. In the two wins, the number is 1.13 with the total in the Chicago series being equal to 1.04 as well. The Cavs won’t be able to compete with a Boston team when they are shooting close to 40% and scoring under 90 points, especially the way this team has been playing defense for the better part of the last two months. Establish some sort of working pattern offensively, and then from there the team can hopefully get into a rhythm of crashing the boards, running on the break and preventing stupid mistakes.
Absolutely that’s a good point, and the Celtics were actually a better on the road than at home this season. The road team in this series is 3-2 as well with a +12.2 differential, proving that home court might not mean as much as we normally think. But I don’t know what the Cavaliers are capable of producing after these last two stinkers. First and foremost, the team will need to crack the 95-point mark. When they have done that in the post-season, they are 6-1 overall. So I would probably put their chances right now of winning game six in Boston at around 25%. This team just hasn’t given me the faith recently and with all the bad mojo out there I don’t see how they can recover easily.
Cameron: The funny thing is, even if they win game six, I’ll be more nervous to see them return to Cleveland given their last two home games there. I’d actually prefer to see back to backs in Boston.
Rosen: I wouldn’t say that at all. I know what we are up against as only like 33% of game five winners out of a tied 2-2 series win in a best-of-seven. But if the Cavaliers do pull off the miracle in game six to tie it back up and recover momentum, I’d give them huge percentage chances to come back and seal the deal. Probably close to 80% in my book.
Cameron: Yeah, I was sort of cracking a joke but I would still be very nervous for game seven regardless of the momentum. I assumed game three was the turnaround that would amend the poor effort in game two, but I was misguided.
Topic 3: LeBron’s future with the Cavs
Cameron: There’s no getting around it… this series could impact the franchise for decades. And I’ve heard several conspiracy theories about how he’s deliberately tanking so that he makes his exit from Cleveland more excusable since they couldn’t get out of the second round. But that just doesn’t make much sense to me. If he were to be the reason the team fails that would make his exit more villainous. However, I do think there is a serious bind between player and coach right now.
Over at RealCavsFans there’s been a lot of heated debate since an insider claimed he feels that LeBron James has lost all confidence in Mike Brown. Some assume the way he has been playing is an act of mutiny and an outcry to get Brown out of town. This would make more sense than him throwing games to leave town, since he’s an unrestricted free agent, able to leave whenever he pleases. However, if true, it’s a very low character power play by LeBron James since he knows very well that he could simply go to the front office if he wants Brown removed. Regardless, it is interesting to see World Wide Wes and Coach Cal sitting courtside at the game last night, no?
Rosen: If LeBron really wanted a new coach, he could have done that last off-season by simply telling Danny Ferry or Dan Gilbert after the disappointing loss to Orlando that he had had enough. It’s ridiculous to think that just now, all of a sudden, LeBron and Mike Brown have a horrible relationship together. Sure it is possible that between the combination of player movement, injuries and rotation issues there is some chemistry problems with this team, but the coaching situation is the least of my worries.
As long as LeBron is here next year, the Cavaliers will be a contender. I don’t even care if that means LeBron self-appoints John Calipari as coach. Just stay here please. Even MJ and Magic went through a few coaches before winning that championship. That all makes sense, but to tank in the playoffs for the simple purpose of getting a new coach would be inexcusable in my book. Just don’t think rationally that that is all that is going on right now.
Cameron: I definitely agree it’s unacceptable and I don’t think it’s a deliberate tank, but it’s obvious that LeBron is not responding to Mike Brown right now. Even in the postgame interviews when Mike Brown has been preaching how important the next few games are, LeBron has held a nonchalant attitude in starch contrast of what is supposed to be the team’s head coach and leader.
Rosen: When I was at game two and saw the comments from both Brown and James after the game, there definitely was a stark contrast in their demeanor and comments toward what is most important right now. Brown was livid at the team for their efforts while James was the calm force as always clamoring about how game three would be the most important yet. But what happens if LeBron James leaves Cleveland then? I can’t even shudder to think of this team if that happens. Mike Brown would certainly be a goner, Shaq would probably not be re-signed, Antawn/Mo would both be expendable pieces and it might just make sense to entirely gut the roster in hopes of getting a new star. The only way to compete in the NBA is with stars and if LeBron leaves Cleveland on this note, it would be all kinds of horrible.
Cameron: I don’t think the team would ever recover in the near future. LeBron James is the centerpiece of this franchise and they have built around him as such. With that said, I can’t imagine the heat that LeBron would take if he left on these terms. I just don’t see it happening.
Rosen: Same here, I can only hope. If LeBron is who he really wants to be, he would take accountability for these actions. As fans, we are trying to stand up for what we believe about this team and what he proclaims to do for this team as a leader. Leaving like this would entirely damage his persona and the all-business mentality he tries to portray.
(Big thanks again go out to Mark Cameron for joining me for this chat. Be sure to check out NumbersDont.com for some good stats and analysis of the Cavs throughout the year. Top photo via Tony Dejak/AP Photo and other two via Gregory Shamus/Getty Images.)
15 Comments
I just listened to Windhorst’s “chat” and it centered mainly around LeBron’s attitude, as Topic 3 touched on. This may be a stretch but what if LeBron just found out something like his mom has cancer, or he does, or one of his kids does. What if there’s something totally unrelated to basketball going on? It’s crossed my mind. I haven’t read all the comments and articles that are out there today so maybe someone has already pondered such things but it would be a viable explanation for his odd demeanor/attitude that we’ve never seen before. I’m obviously searching for reason in this horrible wake of Game 5.
Thanks again, Jacob.
Let’s hope the Cavs give some effort Thursday so we don’t have to wait so long to do another one of these.
Hey, it’s Cleveland. Resistance is futile.
Hell, everything is futile.
Jackie McMullan (Spelling?) from The Boston Globe on ESPN’s Around the Horn said it best.
/paraphrase
I can’t see LBJ walking away from Cleveland after a performance like that. I don’t think he could honestly say he gave it his best effort.
Ernie Johnson: “Fill in the blank: In order for the Bulls to win the series they must…”
Charles Barkley: “Kill LeBron James.”
Can we have this back? But for the Celtics instead?
The thing that kills me is what almost sounds like “talking points” from Cavaliers fans just dogging LBJ in general. Maybe I’ve been in a cave, but I don’t remember having heard any of these things until today. I agree that the team deserved the boos they received for last nights game, as well as their overall laid-back approach towards the playoffs so far, but I don’t see how today it’s like the dogs have been turned loose on him.
In the fans’ defense, last night could have been the last time LBJ played as a Cavalier at the Q. All year long, all we get to hear is how horrible the city of Cleveland is and why would anyone even want to be here and how LBJ would be crazy to play here and he didn’t do anything to quell that stuff. So, last night, we see that team lay down in an absolute must win situation… maybe it was just too much and seemed like the writing was on the wall.
Hi Robbie. I have dared defy the King’s wishes and not bowed to him before. Just wanted to point that out.
@Denny — My comment could have been a bit more clear. I mean, today, no matter where you looked:
— spoiled
— feels entitled
— doesn’t care
— (Kobe, Jordan, Bird) wouldn’t act like this
I’ve read and heard these sentiments before, but not en masse by Cleveland media (and the national media) like today. I’ve read a lot today, so maybe it was here, but someone mentioned it was like every writer had a LBJ hate article in their back pocket and was just waiting to release it, and today was the day. I commented that (ha, ha) maybe NYC and Chicago doesn’t want this loser anymore.
It’s just more saddening than anything. I wish I could not care enough to be disappointed, unfortunately, like many of the visitors of WFNY, it’s in my friggin’ DNA and I’ll lose sleep over this crap till the day I die.
Those are valid points, to be sure, Robbie. There was a very pronounced divide in the sports bloggerdom on Twitter today re: Woj’s piece especially.
After my initial gut-check I think he’s got some very salient points. But, as many have pointed out, it does seem like he was ready to unleash it. Some (Chris Littmann – here and here) have said that he’s got a very clear agenda and it’s apparent that he’s helping drive an agenda.
This isn’t to say that everyone that’s written on the topic has a hand in things. But really this is one of the first times that LeBron’s fallen flat so bad on such a big stage. I think a lot of people gave him a free pass in 07 because his supporting cast was so bad, and nobody expected the run from the team.
Everything always falls on LBJ whether it’s win or lose
when the issue is the players and more importantly the
head coach. The problems have been there all year
fans just didn’t want to see them. Oh and a dollar to a
doughnut says LeBron is hurt. He just won’t whine and
use it as an excuse.
Barkley “The Celtics’ best player is Mike Brown”
Not necessarily true, but when he said that, we didn’t think we’d be here, and in these circumstances
@ Robbie – These points have been made about LeBron by many before, including commenters here. They just get drowned out by all the superlative-laden praise.
@ Denny – The more this goes on, the more it seems that 07 run was the product of LeBron having 0 pressure/expectations about that (bad) team. I mean really, have there been many *worse* teams to make the NBA finals in history? I’m no NBA historian, but that has to be up there.
I’m still in a ridiculously negative mood, but somehow, driving home from work, I got this weird feeling we’re gonna take this series in two historic games. If the local and national backlash from this game doesn’t put a serious chip on LeBron’s and this team’s shoulders, then they weren’t going to win ANYTHING this year, period, no matter how the playoff draw worked out.
Check out this locker room interview with LBJ after the Cavs came up just short vs Boston in early April…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BP-fvssDHUo&feature=related
Attitude a little bit different in the playoffs?
My take on this is actually quite different than most: Something was wrong with LeBron’s leg muscles. For the rest of the Cavs, this might have been about attitude, but when he’s shooting short so consistently that’s usually an indication that their legs are not providing the power they should be behind the shot. It would also explain why he’s reluctant to drive, spending a lot of time standing around out of play on offense, and not bringing the same defensive pressure.
Now, that doesn’t explain why the rest of the Cavs are off their game too, and haven’t been providing proper effort for a long time. But it would explain LeBron.