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May 7, 2010Holmgren Changes Tune on McCoy, Sort Of…
May 7, 2010As the panic has set in at the local level, and to some degree the national level as well– one NBA guru is still fairly confident in the Cavaliers. ESPN basketball analyst John Hollinger, most noted for his efficiency ratings system says the Cavs are actually in pretty good company (subscription required)-
I mentioned this a year ago when the Lakers were getting embarrassed by the Rockets in Games 4 and 6 of their West semifinal series, and I’ll mention it again: For some reason, eventual champions seem to hit major adversity in the second round of the playoffs (aka the East and West semifinals).
I’ll call it the Law of Second-Round Strife. Each of the past eight champions has hit a major bump in Round 2. The last one to skip through this minefield cleanly was the Lakers’ juggernaut in 2001. Of course, that team hardly hit a bump in any road at any time that spring, rolling through the postseason with a 15-1 mark.
So if you were on the Cleveland bandwagon heading into the playoffs, I wouldn’t be looking for the exits just yet. No, this time it won’t be four straight double-digit wins, like they had in a Round 2 sweep of Atlanta last year. But ultimately, history says this test may do them some good.
So we’ve got that working for us. Which is nice.
If you think about it, the Cavs really haven’t fired on all cylinders yet this postseason. There was one pretty thorough beating of the Bulls, but we haven’t seen the Cavs go into a stretch like they did for games at a time this season. Remember this was a team that went 13-2 in March and 12-3 in January. They are capable of getting hot and staying hot. Look at what happened to Boston in the first round. They responded from that poor showing in game 2 of the Miami series and suddenly looked like a new team. They had legs again, and won the next 3, including a blowout in game 4. Or look at the Lakers. After being embarrassed by the Thunder in game 4 which tied the series, Los Angeles stormed back and took the next 2 games in that series and haven’t looked back.
Certainly those situations are not exactly the same as what is going on with the Cavs, but what is similar is the way events like game 2 can snap a team back into focus. Forget the elbow tonight. Watch LeBron and the Cavs come out fighting.
30 Comments
Gunga. Gunga-la-gunga.
I’m still cautiously confident. The Celtics have to beat us 3 more times, which I don’t see happening. Orlando on the other hand…
I can only assume that the rest of the article lays out the mathematical advantages associated with an increase in JJ Hickson’s playing time? I KID!
Orlando is still the team that “scares” me the most… they are looking unreal right now… kinda like how the Cavs were looking at this point last year… hmmmmmmmmmmm
I had to read the first paragrahph 3 times…Does it really say someone from ESPN believes in the Cavs? And here I thought from the moment of the left handed free throw the entire ESPN network jumped onto the cavs are done bandwagon.
I’m more worried about the Celtics and the Magic than I am any team in the West. I expect Boston to take us 7 games. Assuming (read hoping) we win and would play Orlando, I would expect that to go 7 as well.
5- Yeah, but that’s because he’s the only ESPN employee that utilizes fact and logic.
The point that Hollinger makes is about the only thing keeping me from all-out-panic mode right now. I’d feel much better if the Cavs had played fairly well, but lost Game 2 because of foul trouble or because the Celtics shot the lights out. It makes me a little nervous that they looked so terrible in a home loss.
That said, I still believe they can win this series and they should take 1 of the next 2, then look to step on Boston’s throat back at The Q in Game 5.
I agree with the comments about the Magic…they’re playing out of their minds so far…granted they are playing inferior competitions IMHO, but none the less.
I like that the Hawks gave themselves as much of a chance as everyone else. Hubie Brown sounded like he wanted to give Josh Smith a good paddling and ban him from watching the picture box last night.
Kevin
I need a threshold FG% that qualifies for shooting the lights out, because I thought the Celtics came pretty close.
Count me as a believer, even before the Hollinger piece, and that only makes me feel better (hey, I’m a numbers guy). The only reason that loss was demoralizing was because it was a whoopin’ AT HOME. I fully expected us to duplicate the first 3 games of the Chicago series. But I have long believed that the Cavs absolutely can beat any team – they just have to want it, and execute. And that’s where the small doubt starts creeping in…
PASSIONATE MISSIVE ABOUT DISRESPECT AND EE EESS PEE ENN
Denny, sometimes I really don’t get you…
Ian thompson also likes the cavs.
Comment 1 reflected “we’ve got that going for us, which is nice”
Comment 13 reflected the pervasive “ESPN is the devil” that happens so often amongst sports fandom of [insert city here]
Or we could be this decade’s Sacramento Queens, tin men of the east.
If we win tonight, we’ll be throwing roses and all is well again, how’d we ever doubt it. If we lose, the entire season, Ferry’s decisions, millions in expenditures and the maybe the franchise’s future will hover like a mushroom cloud over game 4. That game might almost be too tense to watch.
(Denny, I get you)
“Look at what happened to Boston in the first round. They responded from that poor showing in game 2 of the Miami series and suddenly looked like a new team. They had legs again, and won the next 3, including a blowout in game 4.”
Are you talking about this year? Boston blew out Miami in Game 2, then won Game 3, then lost Game 4, then won Game 5. Not sure the analogy applies here. The Lakers/OKC comparison does though.
See.. Holinger’ed.
I love that guy. Even though I won’t pay to read his articles, so I have no idea what is in them. His headlines and made up statistics always make me feel really good.
I’m even more convinced now that Game 3 was a Varsity Blues type hangover game. While I’m not sure that there was an all night strip club trip involved, there had to have been a Lebronfest after party. Shaq sure did run like Billy Bob and Mike Brown’s post-game tirade was Bud Kilmer-esque.
The Cavs will run Boston off the court tonight. I’d bet my left nut on it.
Oh, and to all you Massholes out there. You may have won every known title in every known sport for the last decade, and you may have the Sports Guy (when he’s not pimping the Suns, the Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs, and.. the Tottenham Spurs?) and you may have Victor Martinez (ok that one hurts), but I don’t want your life.
Do I have a problem if I can only stand to listen to homer commentators tonight?
I believe in the Cavaliers but only because of
#23. The rest of the team, particularly the starting
backcourt is uninspiring. It’s a shame for LBJ
he had to get injured but that’s life.
Maybe Mo Notti will figure it out or that great
head coach will decide to use Antawn Jamison
tonight but probably not.
Steel Merkin, I’m doing a slow clap for your “Varsity Blues” references. Let’s not forget that things worked out OK for the West Canaan Coyotes in the end, but I hope they don’t run Mike Brown out of town first and have Z calling trick plays to win the decisive NBA Finals game.
BOogeyman
Please return your name to its original spelling and bring back that spooky avatar.
Is that even you?
Steel Merk is putting the WFNY commenting policy to the test.
I’ll just note that I’m glad Hollinger reads Frowns. I tweeted at him a few times on Monday, so I figured he might be a regular reader by now.
The Hollinger post discussed here was published today at 3:57 PM.
Frowns this morning: “I’d rather remember . . . how last season the undermanned Rockets blew the eventual champs out twice in this same round. How many times does Kenny Smith have to tell us that the Playoffs aren’t about winning every game?”
I like the way Hollinger expanded on these points. He does good work.
This is it LeBron. Tonight’s the night.
4 quarters of defense, 4 quarters of attacking the basket.
Down 2-1 sounds horrible to me.
The Other Tim
I bet 3 quarters would do it.
Fact is, I think I’ve seen MAYBE ONE
[inadvertent “submit comment”]
… MAYBE ONE game this year where they played 4 quarters.
Just remember that the Cavs were outplayed in the 1st half of game 1 and were dominant in the 2nd half. They got obliterated in the 2nd half of game 2 but were compatative in the first half. Sooner or later they are gonna put it together and have a dominant game and then all will be ok.
I’d give my left eye. Sorry. Too excited, I guess.
Hollinger looks like an absolute genius with this article and the way the Cavs played in game 3. More on this hopefully later this weekend folks.