While We’re Waiting… All About The Big Show
January 6, 2010Hoax: LeBron James “I Heart NY” Shoes are Fake
January 6, 2010In any NBA season, all teams will go through their ups and downs. Sometimes it’s the offense that’s struggling, other times the defensive intensity is lacking. The Cleveland Cavaliers are certainly no exception to this rule. This season so far has been especially rocky and uneven. In general, I like to think of the regular season as just a period of practicing and auditioning. Ideally the Cavs will use this season to figure out how to use their new additions and work on any weak points on offense and defense, before getting it all to click heading into the postseason.
It’s a long season, though, and from time to time it seems prudent to try to examine things that aren’t working and to figure out what the issue is. It’s no secret that as of late the Cavaliers offense has been stuck in a rut.
Looking back at the last 20 games, the team is averaging 101.3 points and shooting 48.6% from the field. Those are certainly great numbers. But in the first 16 games of this sample, the team was averaging 102.69 points and shooting 49.25% from the field. They scored 100+ points in 12 of those 16 games. The only game they lost in that stretch when they scored 100+ points was against Memphis. In fact, that’s still the only game all year in which the Cavs have scored 100+ points and lost. But in the last four games, things have gone south. In the last four games they are averaging just 95.75 points and shooting just 45.93% from the field; they have only scored 100+ points once in those games.
Now, four games is a very small sample and before my intentions get skewed, let me be very clear that I’m not saying the team is in trouble or anything like that. I’m just trying to provide some further evidence of the team’s recent offensive funk and trying to look into some reasons for why the offense is struggling at this moment in time.
Of those last four games only one (Charlotte) was against an elite defense (3rd in the NBA in Def Eff). Two were against Atlanta (14th in Def Eff) and one was against New Jersey (23rd in Def Eff). So it’s not necessarily that the Cavaliers just happened to be playing against a stretch of tough defensive opponents.
Speaking from a more qualitative point of view, I think there are several factors at play. While LeBron James and Mo Williams are certainly doing more than their share on offense, and Delonte West is slowly but surely coming around, the rest of the offense has been drying up. Anthony Parker and JJ Hickson are providing next to nothing in terms of point production right now, and the bench production has been drying up a bit as well. Over the last 10 games, Parker and Hickson are averaging a combined 11.5 points per game, with each only reaching double digits in points once.
Another major factor, though, in my opinion, has been the complete loss of playing time for Daniel Gibson. Long time readers of this site know that I have been pretty hard on Gibson in the past, but this year he had been providing a steady boost of offensive production off the bench, while even showing some improvement on defense as well. With West’s return to consistent playing, though, we’ve seen Gibson’s minutes decline sharply to the point that he’s barely even getting into games lately.
With the recent news of Jamario Moon’s extended leave due to injury, however, I would expect to see Gibson start to see some more playing time again, and I think this is just what the offense needs right now. This is nothing against Jamario, as I think he will be a key asset come playoff time, but what the offense needs at this moment is a jump start. Not to mention the Cavaliers give up 95.2 ppg in games without Jamario, up from their season average of 93.5 ppg against. So Moon certainly deserves the playing time he’s been getting.
But Daniel Gibson deserves some playing time as well. On the season Gibson is +82 in net points, and the Cavaliers score 1.11 points per possession and give up 1.01 points per possession with Gibson on the court. All of those numbers are better than Jamario Moon’s, in fact (and Shaq’s as well, for what it’s worth, but that’s a story for another time).
What I find fascinating, though, is that the Cavaliers seem to neglect some of their best 5-Man Units, particularly ones that include Gibson. Looking at Gibson’s numbers on 82games.com, you see the lineup of Gibson-West-James-Varejao-Ilgauskas is +50, scores 1.59 pts per possession and gives up 0.78 points per possession. That lineup has outscored opponents 12 times and only been outscored once. But it has been used just 34.1 minutes. Similar success is found with the lineup of Gibson-Parker-James-Varejao-Ilgauskas (+35, 1.36 for, 0.61 against, 6-1, 18.5 minutes).
Now, I realize that part of the success of those numbers probably comes from their limited usage. Plus, it’s hard to extrapolate the situations those lineups have been used in. If you extend those minutes and play them more against other team’s top lines, those numbers will perhaps (or even likely) take a hit. But if you look at the Cavaliers 10 most frequently used 5-Man Units, Gibson only appears in two of them, and neither one are Units that Gibson thrives in.
When you look at Gibson’s team ranks this year (among players averaging more than 10 mins per game), he’s 1st on the Cavs in TS%, 1st in eFG%, 5th in FG%, 2nd in 3P% (behind Ilgauskas, of course), 1st in Offensive Rating (tied with LeBron), and 6th in Win Shares. When he has been given a chance, he has stepped up and made a difference for this team. I think it’s a shame Gibson has been reduced to cheerleader, and I’m glad he’s going to most likely begin seeing more playing time. I’m not glad Moon is hurt, but the timing might be just what the Cavaliers need to get their offense going again.
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(Photo Credit: Joshua Gunter/The Plain Dealer)
15 Comments
Austin Carr has to be licking his chops for all sorts of Deep in the Q action tonight…
Yeah, it’d be nice to see Gibson continue to contribute and you make the case well that he deserves it. I’m hungry for another Cavs win, come as it may.
the cavs really need another legit scorer who other teams have to game plan against. not necessarily a perennial all-star, but a guy who on any given night can drop in 25+ and can do it on his own. obviously, we’ve seen delonte or gibson do that but those guys (especially gibson) feed off lebron. the only other guy they have that is a legit scoring threat nightly is Mo. dont get me wrong, i still like the shaq addition, and love the moon and parker additions. those guys do what they do well, but arent scaring anyone. the top teams have 3 legit scorers who you need to worry about on any given night. (lakers have pau, kobe and bynum – even odom at times; orlando has howard, rashard and VC – even jameer at times; Bos has pierce, KG and Ray allen – even rondo at times). we have just lebron and Mo, and at times delonte. frankly, adding that legit scorer at the 4 position would be ideal. antwan jamison is the perfect fit. he can score from inside, outside, in between. he can rebound. seems to be a leader and a professional. thats the guy they need. how badly does Washington want to unload him and his contract? hopefully Ferry can take advantage. jamison for Z straight up with a buyout? maybe jamison + javale mcgee (to help ease the pain of jamison’s relatively bad contract) for Z (with a buyout), d. jackson and a future first round protected pick and/or rights to eyenga or sasha kaun?
Plus, it’s hard to extrapolate the situations those lineups have been used in.
Great article but now I got to get my dictionary for that word!
Andrew: Can I just say thank you for providing great statistical analysis? I swear, ESPN–save Holliger–needs to come and read this post (as well as many other posts here on WFNY). I get so tired of hearing “analysts” talk about things like “intangibles” and “scrappiness” instead of hard facts. In my mind, terms like those are used as crutches for people who really having nothing relevant to say about a topic. You, on the other hand, have dug deep into the numbers to support your argument that Gibson deserves more playing time. Kudos. This is what good sports commentary should look like. One more reason why I love WFNY.
Def Eff is now in my dictionary. Though I’m going to use it in many non-family friendly ways.
Between that and “Self Potato” I’m learning lots of new words today. Thanks, Andrew!!
Andrew – I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been befuddled as to why Boobie hasn’t been playing. My only logical thought is when he missed a game or two with injury, Coach Brown really didn’t see the need to play him after he was healthy because the Cavs were rolling. I’ll be glad to see him playing again. I hope all the sitting hasn’t frzen his shooting touch.
Mike, here’s my take on the question of the Cavs’ third legitimate scorer: On almost every night, he exists. It’s just not the same guy each night. One game Delonte will go off. The next it will be Andy. Another game Parker will suddenly be on fire. Then Z gets left unguarded and drops 15 on you. Or Shaq gets going inside and you can’t stop him.
In some ways, I like this better than having a standard 1-2-3 option. It means that the Cavs have a lot of different ways to beat you. As an opposing coach, you have no idea if your game plan should be stopping a 3-point shooter or protecting the paint. It also means that everyone’s getting some rest and some playing time (with the correctly noted exception of Gibson, and I hope that changes).
dave – i agree with your assessment. im not knocking any of those other guys on the cavs’ roster. any given night, we could very well get a 15-20+ point showing from delonte, gibson, moon, parker, Z, shaq (or even powe eventually?). however that is never a sure thing, like in that last charlotte game. Mo and lebron were decent but nobody on the bench stepped up at all. obviously there have been games when Mo didnt show up but one of those other guys did. there have been games when LBJ didnt show up, but Mo and somebody else did and we won. there have also been games when neither showed up, and none of the other guys helped out and we lost. to add another legit scoring threat who could pour in 20+ any given night on a consistent basis (like jamison) would take this team from being really, really good to devastatingly good.
i’ll call it the “3 + wild card” theory. you have 3 legit scoring options who can create on their own no matter what and dont need lebron or anyone else to feed off of. the lakers have Bynum, Pau and Kobe + wild cards in artest and odom. boston has pierce, KG & allen + wild card in rondo and a few other guys. orlando has howard, rashard, carter + wild card in jameer and a few other guys. the cavs have lebron, Mo + lots of wild cards. the advantage cleveland has is lebron is really worth at least an extra half, so we really have “2.5 + wild cards”. i think the team right now could very well win it all. however, lets say they add jamison to the mix. they would now be “3.5 + wild cards” = OMFG good.
I like OMFG good – that offense would be fat. Like, orca fat.
Yes, I’ve taken from The Usual Suspects before, and I’ll do it again.
[…] has to be music to Danny Ferry’s ears. As I pointed out earlier today, the Cavaliers offense has not always been what it should be this season. Picking up someone like […]
Mike – totally with you. Most nights that 3rd guy does surface, but sometimes mo has an off night and the third guy ends up being the second guy. The cavs need that third guy – and I agree jamison would fit that role perfectly, even though his contract is abysmal.
im just using jamison as an example and i like him alot more than troy murphy. obviously he wouldnt average 20+ points per game, but the threat is there. hed probably average 15 or so which is perfectly accetable. but would anyone be surprised if jamison scores 20+ for 5 straight games? not at all. id be absolutely FLOORED if delonte, gibson, moon, parker, Z, shaq (or even powe?) put in 3 consecutive games at 20+ points, let alone 5 or so.
i wouldnt say jamison’s contract is abysmal (3 years of wally world at $15 mil per is what i would call abysmal), but its hardly a “good” contract. jamison would still give you outstanding production. jamison for Z straight up with a buyout? i dont see how that doesnt work. maybe jamison + javale mcgee (to help ease the pain of jamison’s relatively bad contract) for Z (with a buyout), d. jackson and a future first round protected pick and/or rights to eyenga or sasha kaun? i dont see how that doesnt work either – assuming Washington gets into salary cut mode of course.
Cleveland has been a graveyard for supposed pure shooters – something to do with having only one play for quite a few years – LBJ drives, kicks, nothing but net (have had more plays last year and this year) – works for a while but after a while everyone knows it’s coming, shooters get the heebie jeebies and it’s nothing but nyet! Endless parade of make a big shot, miss 2, 3, 4, 5 big shots. It also has a lot to do with pure shooters being a step behind on being a Mike Brown pure defender, so the player suddenly is sitting, gets to play with no rational pattern, then loses confidence, and it’s clank city!
Boobie seemed to have – sore toe healed – figured out how to earn compliments on defense, and get white smokin hot on his shooting, while growing and getting stronger, playing very well – notice how he gets up and makes clutch important rebounds? So it’s just consistent with Mike Brown that suddenly Boobie is pine bound.
If you watch you will notice a very high work rate for Mo, Parker, and D-West and other teams are not giving them as many open shots – Parker goes clank, LBJ has been going clank, Mo makes shots that are hard to believe very often, but you need Gibson not DNP Coach’s Decision, but playing at least enough minutes to retain some confidence, give Mo a breather, and instantly scorch teams that have been running their keisters off trying to stop all these other players. We’re totally lucky to have 10 quality players and Leon Powe getting ready to make us 11 deep, so we can only wish Coach Brown wisdom and luck in thinking of how to get the best out of each and every player we have now.
All these trade rumors, well Danny Ferry has done pretty well. With the way we tore up Lakers, and Magic -haven’t beat Celtics yet but they look to be a MASH unit and may stay that way – this might be another year to stand pat and get the current group hitting on 11 cylinders, but then again, look how a Charlotte adds Jackson and they or dome other team, like Miami with Rafer Alston might be this year’s Cinderella matchup.
Takes EVERY player developed to do their best, good health, and considerable luck to win the last game of the NBA year!