The Browns Will Win If…
October 30, 2009Eric Mangini is a Darth Vader Fan
October 30, 2009
So here we are. It’s not even November yet and the Cavaliers find themselves at 0-2. This normally wouldn’t be so bad, but there are two problems. First, if we can be honest for a minute, Cleveland fans don’t handle adversity well at all. Whenever the slightest thing goes awry, we can’t help ourselves but to expect the absolute worst. Second, it’s not just the fact the Cavaliers are 0-2, but it’s the manner in which they have been defeated. Both games have seen the Cavaliers play extended stretches of horrific basketball which exposed some major flaws.
Which leads us to the question of the day. Is this a time for patience or for panic? It’s not all that easy of a question to answer. After all, while the Cavaliers have yet to show any signs of life we’ve seen Eastern Conference rivals Boston hold Charlotte to 59 points for an entire game and Orlando score 70 points in just the first half of their first game. In other words, those teams are coming out of the gate full bore while the Cavaliers look like a team who is just now meeting each other for the first time. It’s a problem.
Before we submit to panic, though, it’s perhaps more beneficial to try to identify the problems that exist and then determine a) how easily they can be fixed and b) how likely they are to be fixed. If we can determine the answers to these questions, we can have a better handle on where our emotional barometers should lie.
Offensively, there are several major issues. First and foremost, with Shaq in the starting lineup, the Cavaliers are trying to play 2 different offensive schemes at once. If you’re going to have Shaq in your starting lineup, you have to feed the ball into him to initiate the offense. If you’re not running your offense through him, then what’s the point of having him on your team anyway? I said in my preview for the Celtics game that I was hoping to see LeBron and Shaq play a lot of 2-man game off each other. That would seem to be the most logical way to involve both of them in the offense, and it would also open up cutting lanes for Varejao and would start to create some open shots for Anthony Parker and Mo Williams. Unfortunately, nothing even remotely close to this is happening.
The Cavaliers look completely clueless on how to utilize Shaq, and that falls squarely on coaching and the players themselves. Sure, right now the team will occasionally give Shaq a few token touches, but that’s it. There’s no rhythm being developed there. I can’t help but wonder why they pulled the trigger on the Shaq trade if they’re not even going to try to use him. Instead, the Cavaliers are using Shaq as if he were Ilgauskas, having him come up and set high screens for Mo or LeBron. What we’re seeing happen then is the defenses are just packing themselves in tight because they have no fear of Shaq setting up outside off the pick. In fact, to be honest, the way the Cavaliers are using Shaq is more like Ben Wallace than Ilgauskas. They are making it extremely easy to defend Shaq, and rather than having to double team him, they’re actually allowing defenses to cheat off him when he sets the high screens.
It’s not just Shaq who’s being hurt by this, either. Mo Williams has been taken completely out of his game and is finding no space on the court whatsoever. It’s fine for LeBron when Shaq comes out and lets the defenders pack the lane because LeBron can still get to the rim pretty much whenever he wants. Mo Williams, however, doesn’t have that luxury. Last year Mo thrived when Big Z was able to draw larger defenders out of the lane, but now this year he’s struggling with the defenders crowding the middle.
The solution to this is easy, but it’s one the Cavaliers won’t do. I realize we’re only 2 games into the season, but it’s time to put Zydrunas Ilgauskas back in the starting lineup. This would help the Cavaliers on multiple levels. First, it will allow the starters on offense to find their comfort zone a bit. Even though Big Z isn’t exactly lighting things up with his outside shot this season, you have to wonder if part of it is being uncomfortable with coming off the bench. As a guy who likes to shoot from outside, it can be tough to go through warm-ups before the game and then have to go sit on the bench and cool down, and then come into the game later and try to rediscover your stroke. I realize plenty of guys in the NBA do this all time, but my point is that it’s something Z is not familiar with doing whatsoever and to my eyes, it’s hurting his performance.
The other thing that starting Z does for the offense is it allows the Cavaliers to separate LeBron and Shaq. As of right now, those 2 are not showing any signs of being able to coexist in this offense. Furthermore, the Cavaliers bench is getting destroyed when LeBron sits. Because Shaq relies on his inside post game, coming off the bench cold isn’t quite as big of an issue. By moving Shaq to the 2nd unit, you can allow the first team offense to run as normal, and then when Shaq comes in you can focus on running the offense through him. It would give the bench unit an offensive presence to lean on, which is something sorely missed right now.
Currently, the Cavaliers bench is getting destroyed. JJ Hickson has been a nightmare, particularly after such a promising preseason. Not that Rob Kurz played well enough to earn a roster spot, but had the Cavaliers known Hickson would revert right back to last year’s form, you wonder if maybe they would have given Kurz a spot. As a result, Mike Brown is foolishly using a lineup of Shaq and Z together. It’s a pairing that literally everyone who watches basketball knows can’t work…..everyone except Mike Brown, that is. You will not find a bigger Mike Brown defender than myself, but even I find this to be patently offensive and inexcusable.
I realize he can’t play Hickson in late game scenarios, but why hasn’t Darnell Jackson earned a single minute of playing time yet? Jackson may not exactly be the most athletic guy on the team, but he’s certainly a hundred times more athletic than Z or Shaq. He’s not going to be an impact player, but he’s a solid enough role player who should at least be given a shot at this point. If Mike Brown feels that using a lineup that has no chance whatsoever of working is better than letting Jackson show what he can do, then why is Jackson even on this team?
So far this season Mike Brown has only played 9 players: Mo, Parker, LeBron, AV, Shaq, Boobie, Moon, Hickson, and Z. Coach Brown clearly has no trust in Hickson at all, which essentially means the Cavs are at an 8 man rotation. Then you consider how worthless Daniel Gibson has been (he PER is currently 5.7……FIVE POINT SEVEN!!!), and you’re down to 2 guys on the bench. Oh, but Big Z has been awful coming off the bench, too, and now you’ve got one bench player who is playing decent enough basketball, and that’s Jamario Moon. We lauded this team’s depth in the offseason, but right now, there is zero depth whatsoever.
Another glaring issue for this team is the lack of shooters. Who on this team do you feel comfortable with knocking down key shots in the 4th quarter? Mo Williams? He has a True Shooting % of .505 and an eFG% of .364. Anthony Parker? His TS% is .483 and his eFG% stands at .429. Jamario Moon’s TS% is .517 and his eFG% is .375. The only player with decent (but not spectacular) numbers in those categories is, of course, LeBron James (TS% of .577 and eFG% of .524). The Cavaliers are playing basketball as if they were a jump shooting team, except right now they have nobody on this roster who can shoot. From top to bottom, the issues with this team just keep piling up.
In fact, this is how bleak things have been. Let’s look at the PER of everyone on the team after 2 games (remember, a PER of 15.0 is league average):
- LeBron James – 29.4
- Jamario Moon – 12.8
- Shaquille O’Neal – 10.6
- Mo Williams – 8.7
- Zydrunas Ilgauskas – 7.5
- Anderson Varejao – 6.8
- Anthony Parker – 6.7
- Daniel Gibson – 5.7
- JJ Hickson – (-5.3)
There you have it. Your 2009-10 Cleveland Cavaliers. Only one guy with an above average PER and only 3 guys with PERs just in double digits. The Charlotte Bobcats, who lost their first game 92-59 have 3 guys above average efficiency ratings and 4 guys in double digits. Heck, the Knicks have 5 guys over 15.0 and 2 guys over 30.0 while the Nets also have 5 guys over 15.0. We know the odds of the Cavaliers continuing to play this poorly are slim, but things need to change quick and that fact is so painfully obvious.
What changes could we see? We could see this team show some life, energy, heart, hustle, and effort on defense. You can say that’s coaching, and to an extent it is, but if this is a Championship team the players need to take that upon themselves. You think Kevin Garnett would allow his team’s defense to be as lackadaisical as Cleveland’s has been? Not likely.
We could see Delonte West return to the team. This, above all else, would make a world of difference. I hate to keep harping on the same points, but again, last year Delonte was 2nd on the team and 10th in the entire NBA in Net +/- (right behind Garnett and right ahead of Rashard Lewis) and he was 8th in the NBA in Defensive +/-. In fact, even his Offensive +/- rating of +3.2 was the same as Paul Pierce’s and again, was 2nd on the team only to LeBron. By these measures of impact, Delonte West was the 2nd most important player on the team last year. If he comes back, and can earn back the starting spot that is rightfully his, it will vastly improve the Cavaliers’ defense, it will give the team more depth, and it will give the Cavaliers another shooter that they so desperately need.
We could see Mike Brown deepen his bench to give some guys a chance to prove themselves instead of giving so many minutes to starters who are playing like they have a sense of entitlement. If I were the coach of this team, I would give Darnell Jackson, Jawad Williams, and Danny Green some minutes just to see if they can spark some life into this team. We don’t see any of the joyous chemistry that this team displayed all last year, and after 2 games this team is suddenly playing like a bunch of guys who can’t stand each other.
We could see the Cavaliers make a trade. Obviously, the Stephen Jackson rumors are heating up again. Trading Ilgauskas for Jackson would at least solve the “twin towers” problem and make it so Mike Brown could no longer hurt this team with that lineup, and the team always knows (hopes?) they have Leon Powe in their back pocket to give them another big man eventually. And you know Stephen Jackson would instantly help this team. He would be another offensive weapon, although he’s not a great shooter. You have to wonder if the Cavaliers would struggle to figure out how to utilize another slasher on this team.
The two main reasons why the Cavaliers are unlikely, in my opinion, to do this trade now are because 1) Stephen Jackson’s contract is atrocious and 2) the Cavaliers need a stretch forward who can shoot more than anything else. To blow your best trading chip now in a move of desperation and panic doesn’t seem particularly wise. Danny Ferry has never been one to rush things and to make desperate moves, and I just don’t think he’ll start doing it now. Ferry is much more likely to take a deep breath and sit back and wait for other trade options to open up. In doing so, he’ll be much more likely to find someone who is a natural fit for the Cavaliers, not a guy who is just a quick fix.
Which brings us all the way full circle back to the original question: Is it time for patience or for panic? It’s funny, because while we can say that it’s just 2 games and there’s a lot of season left, we could just as easily point out how remarkable it is that the Cavaliers can be having this many problems after just 2 games.
I’m more inclined to give this ship some time to get righted, but it’s not going to happen on its own. You can only be so patient, but after a while, if you’re too patient and don’t make changes, you ended just sitting still while watching the ship sink into the ocean depths. I don’t believe Mike Brown will give Big Z the starting nod, but I do believe Mo will start to play a little better. I believe Delonte West will be back at some point. I believe that Coach Brown will eventually stop using the “twin towers” approach. So I believe we will see some changes and we will see this team start to play better. I’m no longer convinced this is a championship caliber roster, but I still believe this is one of the 3 best teams in the East. I believe in LeBron James’ leadership and I believe this team is going to start playing good basketball at some point this season. So as to the question of panic, well, I’ll leave that up to you individually to decide. Do you believe, or don’t you? It’s up to you.
_____________________
(AP Photo/Mark Duncan)
32 Comments
Sheesh, can we just watch a few games before all the pyschoanalysis? There’s lots of new players to assimilate, and Delonte West to figure out. Let this thing develop a bit before the daily deep water panic dives. Take a deep breath, and repeat after me: “this is not a Randy Lerner product, rather one that is owned and operated by a competitent and committed organziation”. Ok now, exhale.
good article. This will be a season of phases. Remember the 2002 baseball season when the Indians started off 11-1 or something ridiculous like that? The team in September was a lot different than the one that came out of the gates in April. I presume we’ll see a similar metamorphosis (the opposite direction of course) from the Cavs. They have too many good pieces to continue performing at such a sub-par level.
Danny Gibson is atrocious. If not for that huge game in 2006, he’d have nothing. Well, unless you count hair designs.
I can’t wait to hear what the excuse will be for Boobie this season. The Cavs media loves to give us excuses for why he is awful at basketball.
The hair styles started right around the same time as the awfully streaky shooting
I agree. Now is not the time for panic. There IS valid cause for concern, but I don’t think panic is appropriate. The team will get better, they will start to gel, and things will come together.
That being said, a lot of this IMO falls on Mike Brown. We all know he’s not a genius on offense, but even he should know that putting Big Z and Shaq on the floor would create a defensive liability.
The rotation should be opened up. Who cares if the young guys make some mistakes? It’s early in the season, let them get over it now. Besides, it doesn’t look like we’ll be blowing out teams anytime soon (Though it would be really, really nice if we did).
yeah rock, why are you even discussing the cavs after only 2 games? please dont post anymore well written articles to help get me thru my day at work…
i agree with both parts of this statement – z should be starting, MB wont do it. if we start Z, we basically have the same starting 5 as last year – save for ‘te/AP – which we KNOW worked (granted that ‘te for AP swap is kinda huge). when MB wants to start subbing, bring in shaq and moon, and i suppose boobie for mo so mo can rest to start the 2nd. now you have shaq, moon, bron, AP, and boobie to end the 1st, and shaq, jj, moon, boobie and mo to start the 2nd so you still have 2 competent scorers in shaq and mo (altho i dont like the thought of boobie, moon, and jj on the floor defensively…).
regardless, no time to panic, but its always time to discuss…unless you’re isis and you can’t analyze for a few more games…
A stretch big man on this team would be nice. Even better would be to keep the Shaq and Z combo off the court when defending stretch big men (or keep them separate altogether). In the Toronto game, I swore that I saw them both on the court while Bargnani, Bosh and Hedo were out there too. I don’t know if we have an answer for teams with multiple big men who can shoot from outside as well as drive.
If things continue to head South, I really don’t want them to double down on the Shaquisition by making a panic trade. I mean, worse comes to worse, you still have the starting 5 from a 66 win squad, just go with that, move Shaq to the bench and somehow deal with the repercussions such a move entails.
Easy answer. Patience, simply because it’s so early.
Right now everyone is lauding Boston and Orlando for coming out strong. What if, around the all-star break the cavs hit their stride while the Celtics and Magic start slowing down (injury, season grind, etc). Shaq is such a unique player that is nothing like we had before (or the NBA has seen before).
To counter the cleveland fans expecting the worst. In 2007 everyone was talking about which of the 3 teams would win a championship first. I think it’s the nature of a typical fan to jump on whatever recent trend they noticed and project it forward. We need more than 2 points to plot a reliable trend line.
Although Rock does a great job of looking past the outliers and identifying trends, which makes me worry a little (but just a little). These concerns will not matter until the late rounds of the playoffs, so no reason for me to stress about it now.
Sheesh, can we just watch a few games before all the pyschoanalysis?
Sincerely,
The Guy Who Wanted to Clean Out the Browns’ Entire Front Office and Coaching Staff After One Game
We’re allowed to write off one team because of a new coach/GM and all their draft pics before a season starts, and another team with a new manager months before the season starts, but we’re not allowed to question a third teams play after 2 games because they have a good owner? This is getting extremely confusing.
/shakes fist at DP
I have confidence in LeBron, but I lack the same confidence in Mike Brown. He was horribly exposed in the Orlando series and I fear that he MIGHT be exposed this season. Rock makes an excellent point – why get Shaq if you’re going to keep using him like the offensively inept Ben Wallace? In fact, Wallace and Shaq are nearly polar opposites – Wallace (is/was) a good defender and a horrific offensive player and Shaq (is/was) a good offensive player and extremely suspect defender. Their only similarity is that they both are comically bad free throw shooters. It looks like LeBron is completely confused with the way the offense is supposed to operate with Shaq on the floor, and for that I blame the coaches. What were they doing all offseason and preseason after the Shaq deal? They had time to develop proper schemes to include and take advantage of Shaq’s skill sets and yet they seem to be using the same schemes with dramatically difference personnel.
I agree it is not time to panic, we’re only two games in, and I think it is highly likely, especially if Delonte is able to return long term, that we see a dramatic improvement. I’m just discouraged that the coaches seem completely unprepared to deal with their new personnel.
They haven’t played any more games since the last four articles debating whether we should panic or be patient….We should still be patient. Ferry and Brown were meeting to discuss the postgame road menu, that’s all. And if the Cavs don’t win this championship, at least we won’t have to give a ring to their massage therapist.
@AMC: I can’t argue with your point, but I will say that this is why it bothered me that Shaq was off doing his reality show in the offseason rather than staying in Cleveland and familiarizing himself with the coaches and players. Then, once preseason started, LeBron and Mo were out a lot, and as much as it sounds like an excuse, it probably really is somewhat hard to figure out a flow to your offense when your 3 biggest pieces aren’t all there together.
But again, I don’t fully disagree with your point. There’s no question Mike Brown deserves the heat he is getting right now.
I like starting Z. Of things that aren’t huge question marks (Delonte), that can be seriously considered.
Starting Shaq is like blowing up last year’s team, which was among the best teams (if not the best team) we’ve had. Why remold the team around someone with not many miles, one would think, left in his tank?
It’s as though someone said after last year, chemistry shmemistry, give us the bomb.
Rondo, much as I dislike him for how really really good he is on top of not acting like a guy to fish with, poignantly said the Celtics had an advantage in having played together two years. I think he was mystified, pleasantly so, at the Cavs’ back-to-the-drawing-board approach. Rivers’, also, saying “patience” to his team at the half. I hate the Celtics, but they get it.
@13 AMC: While I’m sure that the ship will be righted, one wonders if the extracurricular activities of Shaq, Lebron, Andy and Delonte is what is making this transition take so long. Shaq didn’t have time to think about his role, he was busy with his TV show. Lebron didn’t have time to think about it, he was around the world. Andy had those FIBA games.
The first time they had a minute to focus on the changes was in training camp, and now it’s taking a little longer.
I’ve been telling everyone that I talk with about the Cavs that with this much roster change, we won’t know what the team’s true colors are for about 30 games. It looks awful now, but I think that the players will eventually find their groove and Mike Brown is obviously using the start of this season to experiment with some rotations to see what fits. I really don’t think that the Cavs this year care much about regular season record or playoff seed as much as we’d like to think they do. They need to get it all right for the playoffs. If we look this bad in December and January, it’s going to be a long season.
Cavaliers = Titanic.
Mike Brown = Iceberg.
You do the math.
@19
I guess Mike Brown wins that battle.
I really hope one of the main things that comes out of Ferry’s meeting w/Brown after the Toronto game was to get JJ more minutes. Good coaches on great teams develop young talent over the course of a season by getting them minutes on the floor (how Boston developed Big Baby over the last two years). But this is clearly another concept that seems to have escaped Mike Brown. I don’t care if JJ screws up from time to time – for God sakes the whole team is screwing up right now – it’s not like JJ’s alone in missing assignments – At least get the kid on the floor so he can figure things out. It’s the only way he’s going to develop. Same for Danny Green.
I’ll admit I’m panicking. It started during the Orlando series when Brown’s rotations hurt the Cavs more than helped them (why didn’t he EVER EVEN TRY JOE SMITH @ the 5?), and it’s clear he hasn’t learned from those mistakes. Coaches need to progress as much as players in the offseason, and from what I’ve seen Brown hit the wall back in the spring against Orlando. Hopefully Ferry can knock some sense into him, or I fear this season will be an exercise in frustrating futility.
@19
That also puts the unsinkable Molly Brown at the 5.
a couple posts from last year after orlando started 0-2. read some of the comments. if i didnt know any better, i would think those comments were just cut and pasted regarding cleveland’s start this year. new players, still early, not time to panic, takes time to gel, etc., etc. the point is, its just 2 games into the season!
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=20583101&postID=6507430946621649434
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=20583101&postID=3097687850200622527
Great analysis, RockKing. I learned a lot by reading it. Not optimistic.
@ 15 Rock
@ 17 Roosevelt
I completely agree that the off-season distractions didn’t help matters either and Mike Brown had little to zero control over all of that. Having guys get sick and banged up in preseason didn’t help either. It just seems though that Brown is a terrible in-game adjustment coach, so I’m surprised he wasn’t more ready to face difficulties with some of his planned lineups.
@Scott & @RockKing – Ditto re: Gibson. He’s just awful. Would love to see Daniels come in for the following 2 reasons: drops Karl (he stinks), and pushes Gibson down the bench. Well, it SHOULD push Gibson down the bench. That move will be MB’s to make.
@DP Diesel – Re: Isis, thanks. Beat me to the punch on that one!
Patience. If we still look this bad after game 20, then we need to semi-panic.
@Mike
Good call. Those comments are starting to look familiar. I’ve always liked a little perspective, which for Cleveland fans can be hard to come by sometimes.
[…] If you want the extended version of my thoughts on what the Cavaliers should be doing, you can read this article. For tonight’s game, we’re just looking for baby steps. The Wolves have some good players. […]
It is still way too early to panic…With that being said, the Shaq move is looking less and less positive with each game. He cannot defend the pick n’ roll (which we were already atrocious at without his help) to save his life. As you mentioned, everyone is standing around which results in zero spacing…hence why Mo is struggggling.
Pluto’s article was good today as was windhorst’s re: D West. I think more than anything we really need Delonte back. He is such a good defender. He makes more of a difference to this team than I even realized. Yet, I get nervous when Brown is making quotes about having to figure this all out without delonte. Makes me think it may be awhile until he comes back.
Still, all of this is on Mike Brown’s shoulders. I have always defended him. But he has his work cut out for him. Time will tell.
[…] sense that the longer these guys play together, the better they will look together—something many of us and many of you in the comments have been saying as well. If Mike Brown can figure out how to continue to use Shaq well to punish […]