We’re Almost Through Draft Season! While We’re Waiting
April 25, 2018Examining the best skill sets in the 2018 NFL Draft: Defense
April 25, 2018A trio of victories in a four game set in Baltimore did little to quell concerns about sluggish Tribe bats. The engine propelling the road series victory was the ever-dependent Indians pitching staff, which compiled a 15 game set allowing a cumulative total of 30 runs. That came to an end on Monday night. The staff has only allowed greater than three runs in a game on five occasions through the first 21 games. This would be enthralling for any Indians fans, yet most are at least slightly perturbed by an offense that just can’t rev itself up. The 12-9 record in the first 21 games is admirable, considering the bats have been more cellar dweller than division contender.
At the very core of this offensive drought is an outfield that has been virtually impotent. Injury concerns rattled the position group through Spring Training discussions and Lonnie Chisenhall is already shelved with a calf issue. Michael Brantley has been the lone cannon with some Tyler Naquin and Bradley Zimmer assistance sprinkled in. Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer look like shells of their former selves. The Indians outfield has posted a collective 72 wRC+ and have combined for a mere three long balls, an MLB-low, through 231 plate appearances.
On Friday night, in the Indians lone loss in Baltimore, the outfield issue showed itself considerably. Francona’s bunch was down 3-1 headed into the final inning. Due to earlier platoon maneuvering, Francona turned to the murderer’s row of Roberto Perez, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer to generate a last ditch effort against right-handed Darren O’Day. The handedness of the hurler is significant, as Davis and Guyer have never had much success against righties.
Since the start of 2017, Rajai Davis has played in 133 games and has registered 405 plate appearances. Over that time, he has tallied a 0.629 OPS, 69 wRC+, and -0.3 fWAR, which is bolstered by 33 stolen bases. Despite providing perhaps the highest leverage homer in Indians history, the 37 year old’s bat is aging incrementally worse than his youthful legs.
Since the start of 2017, Brandon Guyer has played in 84 games and has trekked to the batter’s box 225 times. The numbers are nearly identical to those of Davis at a meager 0.610 OPS, 62 wRC+, and a matching -0.3 fWAR. It’s unclear how much injuries have affected him or if he is still dealing with the effects of that wrist injury. However, his value is already marginalized by his relative uselessness against right-handed pitchers, so there is very little wiggle room when it comes to permitting him time to find his groove.
Are these the caliber of hitters a contender should be sending to the dish in a close game? Past experience tells us that the makeup of the outfield will look far different come September, but concerns over prioritization seems fair. Greg Allen is waiting in the wings in Columbus, with impressive footspeed and stellar defense. Allen’s plate projections render him similar to Rajai Davis’ output but there seems to be a much higher ceiling there. Allen raked in 2016 but just hasn’t found his bat at the higher levels, likely due to being hampered by injury throughout 2017.
Beyond Davis and Guyer, the lone bright spot has been Michael Brantley. Though he is hitting the ball well, Brantley is still searching for the power that propelled him to MVP discussions in 2014. Uncertainty clouds the discussion when determining if he can stay healthy and sustain the early season success. Tyler Naquin is still trying to find his way. The same could be said about Bradley Zimmer.
Recent activity by the Indians front office indicates that the outfield is a recognizable concern. On Monday night, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that they had agreed to terms with former White Sox Melky Cabrera.
Free agent OF Melky Cabrera has agreed to a minor-league contract with the #Indians, source confirms @hgomez27 report. @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) April 24, 2018
Cabrera, 33, has been inconsistent offensively but his floor has always settled around league average. His defense is horrific but maybe manageable with the brilliance of the Indians starting pitching staff. The veteran comes in on a minor league deal and when ready provides an immediate upgrade over Rajai Davis or Brandon Guyer to fill in the fourth outfielder role.
Moving forward, we should not be surprised if outfielders are hot rumors around the trade deadline. Jay Bruce filled a spot nicely in 2016 and a player of similar caliber seems probable. In any case, preseason concern about the Indians outfield has proven its merit — the position group is in dire need of an infusion; whether that be through Greg Allen, Melky Cabrera, Yandy Diaz, or a trade acquisition remains to be seen.