What of the Cavaliers narratives? While We’re Waiting
February 16, 2018He’s baaaaack! Indians sign Rajai Davis to minor-league deal
February 17, 2018Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future. -John F. Kennedy
While the Indians are positioned brilliantly to contend for a 2018 World Series title, the future beyond 2018 remains tenuous and one that many Indians fans have discussed as a period post-window. This is because as Kennedy would suggest, change is coming, following the 2018 season Cody Allen and Andrew Miller will both exit the Indians bullpen and enter the land of free agency, one which the Indians are probably ill-equipped to play in, at least in terms of reliever risk/benefit analysis.
While Bob Dylan would never intend it, he discussed the Indians bullpen situation in the classic “The Times They Are a Changin”
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin’.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’.
The question for the Indians, is Cody Anderson “the slow one now” and is it possible he “Will later be fast”?
Of course, the future is in many ways unknowable, unpredictable, and inordinately messy. However, the unpredictability of the future has never gotten in the way of an effort to prophesize what is next. With a full rotation and an arsenal that suggests the bullpen may be the best fit, Cody Anderson may be a part of the future of the Indians bullpen, whatever that future may be.
With Anderson’s burst onto the scene in the 2015 playoff race now a distant memory, a more measured but murky analysis can occur. Anderson’s readiness for opening day of 2018 is certainly not a lock with Anderson throwing his first bullpen in over a year.
Cody Anderson’s first bullpen session since Tommy John surgery is scheduled for Saturday. Nervous? “No, just more excited that anything.”
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) February 14, 2018
In order to be an effective pitcher in high leverage situations, the ultimate duty of a relief pitcher, it is necessary to possess the following three skills to varying degrees: swing and miss stuff, control, and contact management skills.
1. Does Cody Anderson have sufficient strikeout capacity for a back-end role?
Strikeouts are important because contact variance in high leverage drives run scoring. Those with the capacity to run above average to elite strikeout rates are a value in high leverage because it limits the odds of fluky contact resulting in runs. As a starter, Anderson was contact management driven and ran below average strikeout rates. This is a difficult question to answer for Anderson because just prior to his injury, Anderson had demonstrated both increasing velocity and a strong strikeout rate, especially in the bullpen. Of course, this occurred in a small sample size, so caution for conclusions is important. In his 18 2/3 innings of big league bullpen work, Anderson has run a K/9 of 9.16 or differently a K% of 24.4%, essentially, above average strikeout inducing skills when in the pen.
Anderson has two pitches that have graded out as above average at the big league level, changeup and curveball with OPS against of .625 and .552. Further, the curveball is a pitch Anderson ratcheted up in 2016 which drove his overall K% gains.
You will see that Anderson shifted his usage to feature the curveball more in 2016, especially as he transitioned to the bullpen.
A more balanced arsenal where Anderson only throws the fastball around 50% of the time and features changeup/curveball the remaining 50% of the time will further aid in inducing strikeouts. Anderson has a K% of 30% on his changeup and 34% on his curveball, featuring both more heavily in his pitch mix is key to dominating hitters in high leverage situations.
If Anderson holds the velocity gains post Tommy John which he made in 2016 and plays the fastball up in the bullpen with a strong mix of changeup/curveball, he will likely produce the swing and miss necessary to succeed in a high leverage bullpen role.
2. Does Anderson have the command/control skills to succeed in high leverage?
Once again, this will be partially shaped by his return from Tommy John but his career suggests strong control and the ability to limit free base runners. Anderson has a walk percentage of just 5.5% at the big league level which is exceptional and speaks to his control. This sort of control will allow him to run a dynamic K-BB%. As for command, that evaluation influences and is reflected by contact management because poor command in the zone will result in significant contact management problems.
3. Does Cody Anderson have the requisite contact management skills?
Anderson does a couple of important things in the fly ball revolution era first and foremost, he induces a lot of ground balls of his fastball. A ground ball rate of 43.5% over the course of his big league career, and better numbers in the minors. Further, in 2016, Anderson allowed only 4.8 Barrels per plate appearance, just 3.8 in 2015. Anderson is average to above average at avoiding barrels which are contact with the highest run scoring value.
Second, he induces ground balls which are far more valuable to pitchers than fly balls especially with the baseball juiced. If Anderson can sustain roughly 43-45% ground balls, a thoroughly attainable goal as well as his current barrel per plate appearance rate, his contact management skills will be average to above average. Not to mention his seemingly advanced ability to induce popups or infield fly balls.
Conclusion
As the Indians attempt to peer into the future they see that developing relievers is paramount to World Series contention in 2019 and 2020, Anderson is one of their best hopes. For Cody Anderson and the Indians, the times they are a-changin.