Gregg Popovich & Franchise Culture: While We’re Waiting…
January 18, 2018Joe Thomas ends any debate surrounding the release of Joe Haden
January 18, 2018The splash page headline reads “Browns take a QB, but not the one you’d guess.” And they’re off!
With a need to start filling air time for fans of teams not among those playing in the conference championship games, ESPN’s Mel Kiper is here to save the day with his first of many mock drafts for this spring’s festivities. In doing so, however, Kiper has the Browns taking a quarterback—just not one of those who were debated among WFNY. Kiper, citing that his evaluations of each of the top-tier quarterbacks are really close, goes with one who was on our “need not apply” list earlier this month.
1. Cleveland Browns
*Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Cleveland has to take a quarterback. Has to. And a winless season means the Browns can pick whichever one they want. My evaluations on this quarterback class are really close. I’ve gone back and forth a few times on Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Allen, but I just moved Allen up to my No. 1 quarterback. His numbers aren’t impressive, I know. But the NFL is all about projection, and he has a high ceiling. Coaches want to work with the 6-foot-5 Allen because he has all of the tools. I said last month that he is one of my favorite prospects in this class. The other top quarterbacks have warts, and there is no slam-dunk No. 1 prospect, which makes it a fun class. Scouts are looking forward to seeing Allen at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, next week, where he will work out with much better talent.
So, yeah—let that marinate a bit.
Kiper hands Rosen to the QB-needy New York Giants with NC State defensive end Bradley Chubb going at No. 3 to Indianapolis. Which, at No. 4, leaves…
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)
*Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
This is the pick acquired in the Texans’ trade up for Deshaun Watson last year. Cleveland has a new front office, and Barkley could be the best overall player in this class — he’s No. 1 on my Big Board. But how much do teams value running backs? We’ve seen in recent years that they can hit on backs in the top 10 (Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley), but the Browns also have recent history missing on one (Trent Richardson, though they later got a first-round pick in return for him). And there is always value in the middle rounds — just look at Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara in 2017. Barkley is a big-time running back, and I think he’ll be a top-10 pick. He is built for today’s NFL as a do-it-all runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Darnold goes to Denver at No. 5. Defensive backfield stud Minkah Fitzpatrick falls to the New York Jets at No. 6. The Buckeyes have another defensive back go in the top 10 with Denzel Ward at No. 9 to San Francisco. The Washington Redskins land Baker Mayfield at No. 13. Lamar Jackson, as of now, is not going in the first round.
I get a weird sense that had Barkley been taken No. 1 and Allen at No. 4, fans would be a little more accepting, but I’m firmly on Team Get The Quarterback at No. 1. At no point in this process will I engage in debate on who that quarterback is. I’m not a talent evaluator; I’m certainly not a general manager. I do know, however, that this team needs a quarterback and that we will have the Browns be linked to each and every one of them over the next several months.
Buckle up, folks.
43 Comments
56% Completion Percentage.
FIFTY SIX.
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They say you can’t teach accuracy (see: Quinn, Brady). This just seems too risky.
Kiper is never right so these picks won’t happen.
well , there will be a lot of this going on & Kiper will change his mind another half dozen times or so before the draft. it will come down to what we do or don’t do with the QB position in free-agency & what Dorsey & Co. think about the college QB’s.
if we’re taking a QB at # 1 overall , I would still go with Darnold … i think he is the SAFEST choice at # 1 overall.
Is there anywhere that rates how these bonehead predictors do every year? I know they have to get something out there, but this is all so silly
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5
thousand
career
yards
Any GM that takes Allen in the first should be run out of football.
Excellent question. I’ve always wanted to create a website, lastyearspicks.com, and rate the raters based on their previous picks. I haven’t because life and stuff.
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hi ERIC … i Googled it … you can actually find some answers based on his top 25 player rankings versus where they were actually drafted versus how good they ended-up being in the NFL … if that makes any sense.
there was 1 un-named GM that said Allen would be drafted #1 overall.
hi FBF … sounds like a lot of work.
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If we end up with Josh Allen in a draft with Rosen, Darnold, and Jackson available…
(I’m Fitzpatrick over Barkley at this point, but either would be nice.)
so , who are the best players in this draft ? … Barkley ? Chubb ? Q.Jackson ? , Fitzpatrick ? McGlinchey ? …
un-named because he’d be fired and laughed out of the league
They’ve done studies you know. 60% of the time, Kiper is right everytime!
Minkah, Chubbs, Q.Nelson, Barkley, Lamar Jackson are the most dynamic football players in this class.
How would you handle the fact that he changes his picks constantly?
Love Saquon but I’m sold on getting Minkah, then drafting Guice
if we get Cousins , draft Barkley AND Fitzpatrick (?).
It doesn’t matter if his projections match the actual selections. What matters is if his projections match the ultimate result of how good they were. For example, if he predicts Allen at 1, but Allen is taken at 22, nothing significant, but if Allen turns out to be 1 QB, then Kiper knows his stuff. If Alllen ends up a journeyman, then Kiper was wrong.
Lol, good point. I guess I’d have to go with his final mock.
Stupid life and stuff. Always getting in the way.
Someone should mock draft the mock draft – try to predict who Kiper et al will predict before they release their mocks.
I’ll go first: for the #1 pick, I predict Kiper will switch to Rosen in his second mock, switch it up with Chubb in mock 3, go back to QB but Darnold in #4, have us trade out of the pick in mock 5, and circle back around to Rosen in his final draft.
By the way, that was only my first mock of his second mock. I’ll have three more before he releases his vol 2, that way I ensure one of them is correct. But don’t try to hold me accountable at the end of it all, or definitely next season.
Those final mocks are industry sourced and generally quite good.
Absolutely!
I feel like you just shut down Excel with a circular reference error. Well done.
might we have to consider McGlinchey , C.Williams or O.Brown if Joe Thomas decides to retire ?
Sony Michel is the best all-around back in the draft.
If we get Cousins?
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hard to argue that … but , will he be there in the 2nd round though ?
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Think Saquon is best all-around, Guice the best runner, and Michel somewhere in there too. I’d be happy with any of the three.
None worth a Top 4 pick.
Eh, I don’t see it. Josh Allen is going to have to walk on water in the next few months to jump up to #1. Also, Josh Rosen = Jay Cutler. I think it’s either Darnold or Jackson, and I’m leaning Jackson. (Although I wouldn’t be shocked a bit to see them go hard after Cousins instead to fast track the rebuild)
Barkley looks amazing, but I still wouldn’t take him in the top 10. Fitzpatrick would transform our passing defense. Whether he plays CB or FS, he makes the entire secondary better, and he could be around for a decade. Peppers can play SS where he belongs and both corners have far better protection than they do today. It’s such a perfect fit – premium position, top talent, position of need. Too obvious.
Of course, in my dream scenario, the Giants are convinced we’re taking Rosen and they give us a 2nd rounder to move up a spot…
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Darnold did nothing this year.
hi PAUL … i wouldn’t say he did “nothing” … at this point , I’m going with Darnold.
way to sneak in Lamar there. Like it. Frankly, if he’s not going in the first round I’d love to take him at 33 after grabbing Minkah and Chubb and Ridley in the first (with the bounty we get in a trade-down).
I want to do the same thing for weathermen and women.
EDIT: I’m talking about women who do weather, not just women. Weatherwomen, i guess.
There’s no doubt he is.
Could be wrong because NFL is dumb but, I don’t know how he doesn’t go Round 1… I just don’t get why Bortles or Watson or any number of QBs would have been considered better as a prospect given body of work.