Should Kyle Korver Start?
November 15, 2017
Corey Kluber wins the 2017 AL Cy Young Award
November 15, 2017Consternation over the 2017 winless season has led some to calumny regarding the front office of the Cleveland Browns. The perceived maliciousness between the coaching staff and personnel decision-makers at the trade deadline did not help ease any minds. As owner Jimmy Haslam sees another campaign steer closer to fruitless endeavor than even a playoff pretender, the fates of those he entrusted to demolish the 2015 roster must now be evaluated upon their expected ability to create future contending clubs.
Leadership often operates within only the gray area of a process with a required need to balance the qualitative and quantitative measures throughout an organization. As such, a methodology is required to base the current status of The Plan the Harvard Brain Trust (HBT) unveiled when they came into power. Asset accumulation, allocation, development, cultural improvements, and on field results each an important but separate component of the overall scheme. After one season and nine games, here is the current status of the HBT Plan.1
Asset Accumulation
Extra draft picks in upcoming years
- 2018 first-round Texans selection
- 2018 second-round Texans selection
- 2018 second-round Eagles selection
- 2018 fourth-round Panthers selection
- 2018 fifth-round Chiefs selection (conditional – Cameron Erving)
- 2018 seventh-round Colts selection (conditional – Billy Winn)
- 2019 seventh-round Steelers selection
Is there one among us who thinks the HBT have not succeeded in the arena of obtaining the maximum number of assets possible? No other team can match the vast quantity of high-round, and high-per-round, picks the Browns have held over the past several drafts and for drafts yet to come. There is a strong possibility the Browns will hold two Top 10 picks and four Top 40 picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yes, 10 percent of the first 40 selections are likely set to don the brown and orange should the HBT see it wise to select players at those positions rather than continue asset accumulation.
The accumulation has gotten to the point of overabundance where there have been some odd machinations with the asset utilization. For instance, the Browns traded cornerback Justin Gilbert to the Steelers for their 2018 sixth-round pick. The Browns then used that same 2018 sixth-round pick to obtain wide receiver Sammie Coates from… the Steelers. The end result was a Justin Gilbert for Sammie Coates trade, so neither team was helped on the field. The league office did have to process quite a bit of paperwork though.
Asset Allocation and Development
Note: It is worth mentioning all of the players above are either rookies or second-year NFL players. Quarterback Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams should be an obvious example of how foolish this table might look in even just a year or two. The development patterns of players are often erratic and the sample sizes of NFL games are small. These are not meant to be a final arbiter on their careers but a simple snapshot as best we can guess at this particular moment.
courtesy of pro-football-reference.com
Acquiring a vast array of assets does nothing of substance if they are not utilized properly. Divergence of opinion is expected to find genesis in the color coded table above. Each pick is depicted with a corresponding hue to note the current space the player exists on their development cycle. Careful consideration has been taken with respect to the associated development per position and draft location before separating into four categories: good (green), OK (orange), poor (purple), and released (red).
The Browns have had 24 selections over the past two drafts. Of these, three players no longer reside under control by the team (Payton, Caldwell, Wright). Three more have not only secured starting positions but have shown themselves to be players worthy of having the team built around them (Garrett, Ogbah, S. Coleman). Therefore, 18 players reside in the murkiness of determination between whether or not they will require to be extended beyond their initial NFL contracts as part of the future of the football team on the Northcoast of Ohio.
The seven individuals registering in the OK range from the above chart range from starter to rotational player. None of those starting appear to be fully entrenched as Derrick Kindred would need to battle Jabrill Peppers should the Browns ever see it wise to add an actual free safety to their roster. Devalve is being pushed by Njoku, who is also on this list. Drango is only on the field for the initial snap due to Joe Thomas booking his first-ever trip to Injured Reserve. Schobert remains the lone member in this class who does not appear to be in direct danger of losing his starting grip with Ogunjobi and Brantley striving to scratch the ranks of those who top the depth chart.
The depressing number of 11 players are left to don purple as they have yet to navigate the NFL in an acceptable way.2 Many of the players within this sect have shown glimpses of the promise the front office saw when writing their names on the draft cards. The issue might be with the dependence upon them to provide more than their youthful status has earned or skills can provide them. Gonzalez is still learning the speed of NFL special teams. Coleman is leaned as as the No. 1 wide receiver (when he isn’t injured). Peppers is put into the angel position on defense despite strengths geared towards being close to the line of scrimmage. Louis and Higgins cannot blend into the background as they have had to be THE targets at times in the passing game. Having such dependence on those types of receiving options helps demonstrate the situation Kizer has been placed within. The remaining are Dayes and Nassib who appear to be best served as backend rotation options, even for a team as needy as the Browns.
Cultural Improvements
The analytical minds of the front office scouring the field of players within the NFL and college ranks and utilizing every loophole and market inefficiency possible in order to maximize the talent on the 53-man roster and supply positions of need for the old school coaches who focus on the results on the field is the vision attempted to be sold upon the hiring of Brown and Jackson as counterparts.
The optics have not matched the message. National reporters have been able to write of the constant discord between the vision in the offices in Berea and on the field. Wins have been even more scarce than envisioned as historical marks of futility must be dredged up as the only measures of comparison. Full-on mutiny did not seem beyond the realm as discord hit at the trade deadline.
What now?
The Browns are not without talent. The defensive and offensive lines have been the strength of the team. There have been flashes of progress from the skill positions on offense, and the cornerbacks have surprised (in a positive way) on defense. Far too many self-inflicted wounds from turnovers and penalties have stunted any attempts to win games, but, as those are filtered out, the team the Lions lauded for talent has the opportunity to change the discourse about the Browns.
If the Harvard Brain Trust expects to still be in charge of the team when such conversations steer to the positive, then they must hope their drafted players show higher aptitude over the remaining weeks. To do so, more of the players who have shown glimpses must do so with a much greater consistency. Those who have shown progress must continue on that path (at an advanced rate if possible). The purples to orange, the oranges to green. Otherwise, they might find themselves watching the progress from afar.
- Yes, free agency plays a part in the overall process of what the Browns are attempting to accomplish. However, the main focus here is the building of the foundation, which is accomplished through the draft, which is why it is the focus. [↩]
- Wilson and Johnson have spent the season on Injured Reserve. [↩]
147 Comments
Dang, what a creeper vibe. If there’s a Browns sexual harassment pool, I’m picking him.
We went beyond “down to the studs” and have a crater sized hole. Now, we’re working on filling that hole and flattening things out. Patience!
It is not that FA isn’t important- it is. But, FA has to be purely supplemental to a strong basis of the team built through the draft, which is why I put my focus there in this article. Otherwise, we get too scattershot on tangents. A good add here though and I appreciate it.
Fair enough sir. Man, I know it really sucks right now, but I wish Browns fans would just continue to be patient with the front office. I really think they’ll get there.
Another thing to consider that got left on the cutting room floor here is the FO was largely inexperienced when they took the positions. But, that also means they are gaining experience, hopefully learning as they go along.
It’s one reason I am willing to give a longer leash to the FO than the coaching staff.
I agree that this was the most obnoxious misstep committed by the HBT and caused us, the fans, the most pain. There’s just zero precedent for a tear-it-all-down, slowly-build-up process working better than the alternative. It unnecessarily requires patience of a fan base that is all out of patience.
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Agreed. You don’t expect veteran results from a rookie player by year two. I think the same requirement would be fair of the rookie front office.
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and that’s really an issue not fully addressed because generally fans want to give any idea the benefit of the doubt. Sashi’s stated theory was that many draft picks would increase the odds – and quantity – of excellent players, and super-charge franchise build thought bubble. But it takes no special talent to trade away high picks for more lower picks and future picks. It takes no talent to lose. The special talent is identifying the elite players and knowing what on-field ecosystem supports winning. Sashi is a lawyer. His “football guy” was 28 when hired. His analytics specialist has no football experience or acumen, no context as to what the on-field game needs.
Against all odds, this could have worked, although it would have been unnecessary (as demonstrated by every other decent NFL team). But this unnecessary thing is headed by the unqualified. The fact that Haslam thought not only that Sashi’s idea was good and that Sashi should execute it falls squarely on Haslam. Sorry for those whose jugular’s throb at the idea of an umpteenth re-boot, but time doesn’t make idiocy better, it just delays the inevitable.
Yeah the strip down has been my problem and they seem mostly (emphasis) happy to continue doing it. Dumping any of those WR’s for Peyton for instance or bringing in Burgess when we traded Davis. Stuff like that is just baffling. Those guys would’ve helped the HBT buy more patience with a win or 2 rather than us discussing who is running the show next.
I think that’s a fair point. I’m not sure if they would have contributed to an actual win on the field, but it’s certainly plausible. To date, the biggest issue has been turnovers and lack of red zone production at QB. It’s so much more important than any other position, and the whiffs have hurt. If the Browns had started, say, Tyrod Taylor or Kirk Cousins this season, they’d be a 4-5 win team at this point.
good post.
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It just silly to me that they’d pass on giving him the 1 year deal if the HBT really had confidence in their evaluations. If he flops (I admit I was high on Pryor going into last FA and WOW) you negotiate him down if he’s a hit you can franchise him figure out something longer. Seems like an easy win/win situation.
I’ll give it a read
I agree on the leverage. To me if you kept him on the 1 year deal and he does break out you can franchise him and negotiate a longer term deal and if he doesn’t apply leverage for a cheap one. It’s the safest bet imo.
hi PAT … if the “tear-it-all-down” works in the end & we achieve sustained success , will it have been worth it ?
i imagine the tear-down is part of their plan as it probably pertains to the salary cap & re-signing their draft picks to 2nd contracts.
i already know they will … even though the won-loss record this year probably didn’t mean much to the FO , it does mean something to the fans.
the Browns should probably be 2-7 right now … if we were , would that be considered that the plan is heading in the right direction & we’re showing improvement over last year’s 1-15 record ?
Ok I can lay out where my problem with the HBT comes from with this so we get each other. Since I’ve gotten into it with someone on here before about the HBT approach.
I don’t trust Depodesta to accurately evaluate NFL players. I don’t disagree with the concept of a fulltime evaluator looking for inefficiency in the player/position market. I almost fully agree with their approach on the o-line (something the Cowboys display in spades. A good strat to employ) barring the Schwartz incident. That leads me to my 2nd problem. I don’t see a problem with letting players test FA and returning for the original offer especially if you did slightly better than the market did using Schwartz as an example. Loyalty goes both ways after all and showing that the HBT is still willing the deal inspires that. I get players want to be paid and every FO wants to save money but it’s worth it to not earn a Spanos family reputation.
Yes, it will definitely have been worth it and I’m on board to find out.
I don’t agree that it would have affected salary cap. The Browns are so low that they could have afforded to keep any vets they had to an additional 2-3 years.
hi HARV … “this still could have worked” , with “have” being the key word … so , you’ve already resigned yourself to believe the plan has no chance of working & the people executing the plan have no chance for success ??
i hope that in 2019 / 2020 you & I are both still kicking so I can say I told you so.
they also had a lot of bad contracts … Bowe , Kruger , Whitner , Dansby & others … i’d rather see the kids we have now than the over-paid do-nothings.
Actually by commanding less of a contract, there will be more teams interested in his services, making the Browns face more competition and less likely to get him, IMO.
Correct me if I am wrong, but Depodesta is a strategist and not a personnel evaluator. So he could say “best time to add a QB is after the rebuild is 85% done to maximize the window of competition before the QB salary ruins our cap space” not choosing the players, per se.
Fans of loser teams go way overboard on rating rookie and 2nd year players. It is criminal.
Haslam is going to be spending the next 24 months meeting with a LOT of attorneys if the receent news seems credible.
DePodesta doesn’t trust DePodesta to accurately evaluate NFL players. That’s not his job.
They’re so desperate for wins that they can’t allow development time.
Sashi is an attorney.
Correct, the main evaluation of players is still done the old-fashioned way by Andrew Berry and the player personnel team.
In his SI interview he states part of his job is player evaluation. Going from Pat’s article as well he speculates about Depodesta’s actual job is something Belichick uses.
I think DePodesta has input, but I don’t think he drives player evaluation by any means.
Ok then I’ll need some more explaination on Tenet 3. I’m misreading it then.
Oh yeah by no means do I think he runs the whole thing but his input is weighed heavily.
I just don’t understand the blind rage or the “tear it all down” mentality that so many Browns fans seem to be embracing right now.
First, 1-win, 2-win, 3-win?? Who cares? No one is going to look at the Browns with say a 3-13 record and say, “Wow! Really making progress!” This year is lost. It was all but guaranteed to be lost two years ago, when we started this, so who cares? At least we’re gonna have a top pick as opposed to the crapshoot around picks 8-15, which is not worth 3-4 more wins in the grand scheme of things.
Second, we all asked for 3 yrs of patience when the HBT started. Hell, I remember people begging that Haslem didn’t go all trigger finger and blow it up too early. Give them 3 seasons/drafts THEN reevaluate.
Third, the QB talk needs to stop. Watson and Wentz aren’t who they are on this team. Kizer is a project, not getting a veteran this offseason was a mistake, but I’m fairly certain the first pick this year, and probably a veteran as well, are brought in this offseason. If we don’t address this, I’ll hand out the pitchforks myself.
Finally, the cap space. I think we’ll spend it on resigning decent players first, grabbing that one “stud” second, and saving for the future last. Buying a $80M player would’ve done nothing for this team this year. Be patient.
This time next year, if it’s all the same, fire them all. Until then, let’s stick to what we agreed to and not freakout. Frankly, we don’t have any other choice anyway.
I think his role is more to develop processes and overall strategy, not so much the evaluation of players. He may have input into what metrics should be weighed more heavily, but he’s not going to come to Andrew Berry with an evaluation of Myles Garrett prior to the draft, for example.
Not criminal though. Here’s hoping Dee doesn’t get the team in the event Jimmy goes down.
“There’s just zero precedent for a tear-it-all-down, slowly-build-up process working better than the alternative.”
Nationals, Astros, Cubs. Sixers looking to be set up for a good future.
“It unnecessarily requires patience of a fan base that is all out of patience.”
It isn’t. They sold plenty of tickets this year, and will again next year. This org took the bet that the being out of patience will extend only to griping, and not withholding money. They’re right so far.
Wow, blast from the past!
I mean that’s my problem. He has an executive part not the whole but he’s prominent in the process. I just don’t trust him to judge what metrics are important. Maybe he could develop that knowledge down the road but as a comparative rookie at this he’s not someone I trust.
Sorry, meant in the NFL, not among all professional sports. Yes, there are teams that have torn it all down in the NFL and succeeded in the rebuild, but there are many more that didn’t adopt that rebuilding strategy and also had success, finding their future QB in the mid-to-late first round or later.
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Or by trading several first and second round picks to move up and take a QB #2 overall….
…only to find their franchise QB in the fourth round that same year.
Who did you think I was talking about?
Sashi, Paul, and Andrew…. every Sunday.
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“His “football guy” was 28 when hired.”
This gives the impression that they plucked someone barely above an intern. They hired a guy who was the pro scoutinn coordinator for a pretty successful franchise. That he achieved that by 28 seems far more postive than negative.
“His analytics specialist has no football experience or acumen, no context as to what the on-field game needs.”
He played in college, which is certainly in line with playing experience for the more analyticals types in the NFL.
But higher priced vets might take you out of contention for getting the next Garrett.
True, but if they drop you down to select JJ Watt, you’ll be just fine.
you think Sashi will be here in ’19? Grab hold the reins, Tiger. Watch his last presser, where he’s discussing the McCarron trade fiasco. Mute the sound, and watch his eyes. He knows what time it is. Hey, at least he can say he went down with dignty, not like Ray Farmer, on a tide of flop sweat and chirping nonsense about waiting around for the end of the movie.