Indians

Baserunning blunders nearly trip up Tribe: Between Innings

All is well. The Cleveland Indians (54-45) have now won each of the six games played on their seven-game homestand and have maintained a 1.5 game lead on the Kansas City Royals (53-47), who have been on winning streak of their own. Wednesday night’s 10-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels (49-53) appeared to be an easy win over an inferior opponent. Indeed, the bats of the Tribesmen over-powered the Angel hurlers as Cam Bedrosian was driven into the bedrock (0.1 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 R) and Brooks Pounders was pounded (0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 R). Eight of the nine Indian starters reached base safely on multiple occasions with only the AL MVP candidate, Jose Ramirez, failing to reach a second time.

However, the final score and lengthy winning streak are masking an underlying issue with the Tribe that was at the forefront throughout the contest. Baserunning continues to plague the Indians and limit the total amount of runs scored in games. Not just random occurrence, bad luck baserunning outs, but systematic and horrific decision-making plays that hand the opposition free outs throughout games. It is important to note that the Indians are a good offensive club (tied for seventh in runs per game in MLB, fourth in the AL), but that there is potential for them to become a dominant one if they could clean up their act.

The 2017 version of the Indians has three players1 with a wRC+ above the 2016 team-leading Tyler Naquin (135) who collected the vast majority of his value in a small stretch from June to July (Lonnie Chisenhall-149, Jose Ramirez-145, Austin Jackson-143). Despite that, the 2016 squad scored nearly the same amount of runs per game (4.83) as the present day team (4.92). One of the big reasons was that the Indians were the second-best baserunning team in Major League Baseball last year.

The 2016 Cleveland Indians had an extra base taken rate of 45 percent.2 That means runners on first were taking third and runners on second were scoring3 on nearly every other single. Despite the super aggressiveness on the basepaths, the Tribe was just a tick above average when it came to being tagged out running (56 to 54). The Tribe also stole the most bases in the American League (fourth most in MLB), while doing as at the second-best rate in MLB (81%). The end result was that runners on base scored 32 percent of the time (third best in MLB).

The 2017 Cleveland Indians acquire an extra base taken only 37 percent of the time (MLB average is 40%) though before Wednesday nights game they were still slightly below league average on being tagged out on the basepaths (29 to 32). The Tribe is also below league average on number of steals (52) and right at average on stolen base percentage (74%). Still, despite the lack of ability, the added prowess of bats (most notably the additions of Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion to the lineup) have allowed runners to score at the same rate as 2016 (32%).

courtesy of baseballsavant.com

Losing Rajai Davis in free agency certainly helps explain the decrease in total stolen bases, but there is plenty of team speed that a savvy club should be able to maintain a higher extra base taken rate. The ballclub has six players with a sprint speed above 28 feet per second, including Bradley Zimmer who only trails Billy Hamilton in sprint speed according to Baseball Savant as measured by Statcast.

Reckless running is dangerous no matter the speed. Jose Ramirez has been among the worst 2017 Indians baserunners despite being one of the faster players. His -3.0 baserunning rate is only above relative slow pokes Yan Gomes and Edwin Encarnacion. The Tribe leader in this metric is Michael Brantley,4 who uses smarts to compensate for a speed that is about equal to Gomes. Having more players with J-Ram (and better) speed learn how to run the bases like Brantley is what manager Terry Francona should be pushing.5

Wednesday demonstrated just how far the Indians need to go here. There were several minor instances throughout the game. Ramirez stalled on second despite a throw home where he should have easily advanced to third. Zimmer was almost caught napping off second base when catcher Martin Maldonado made a great throw behind him after a pitch late in the game. There were several more that kept the game close until the seven run eighth inning outburst.

Here are the plays that directly cost the Tribe outs or positioning on Wednesday

Erik Gonzalez caught stealing

Erik Gonzalez is not a good hitter (95 OPS+ and even then indicators that is hitting above his expectations), but he is a fast runner. When he got on base in the third inning, he wanted to challenge the 43% caught stealing rate for Maldonado and shortstop Andrelton Simmons. He appeared to get a decent jump and it took a perfect throw to get him. A bad outcome, but this out was not a poor decision.

Edwin Encarnacion thrown out at home

Sometimes, it is important to understand your own physical limitations. Edwin Encarnacion is a beast at the plate. He is batting .305/.412/.585 since May 21 with 14 home runs, 12 doubles, a triple, 43 RBIs, and 46 runs scored in that timeframe. Being such a behemoth though slows him up a bit around the diamond. So, when a great armed right-fielder, Kole Calhoun, is ready to throw you out at home with no outs and the pitcher on the ropes, maybe take that turn at third base and see if there is an overthrow rather than running into the out.6

Erik Gonzalez called for unintentional interference

The best way to take the noise out of a ballpark is to have an exciting play get called back. Austin Jackson stole second base and a bad job judging the throw wound up allowing A-Jax to advance to third base. The fans are on their feet, the ballpark is loud and starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco’s night might be complete. But, wait. Erik Gonzalez did a wretched job in the batter’s box. He had such minimal control of his bat during a flailing swing that he allowed it to brush up against the shin guard of Maldonado as he threw the ball to second. Unintentional interference was called and Jackson had to return to first base (if it was ruled intentional, then Jackson would have been out). It was a tick-tacky call, but E-Gon’s own sloppiness led to it, which is on him.

Bradley Zimmer caught in a pickle

The last out is just dumb. Zimmer ran from second to third on a ground ball. He watched the Simmons range to his right (watch him as he turns his head at least twice) to scoop up said ground ball, but Zimmer decided to make a big turn at third anyway. Simmons takes advantage by making an off-balance throw to third base and catching Zimmer stuck in a pickle. Despite his best efforts at avoiding the tag while running home, Zimmer is properly reminded of his idiocy when Maldonado falls on him while applying the tag.

  1. minimum 100 PA []
  2. Only behind the San Diego Padres who have valued speed over everything else in their team dynamics. []
  3. and similar extra base taken on doubles []
  4. It should be noted that it is a cumulative statistic, so Brantley having more plate appearances than Zimmer is a big advantage here. []
  5. In fact, three of the Indians slower players are among the Top 5 in baserunning value added with Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana joining Brantley. []
  6. Yes, it was a bang-bang play and one of the replay angles indicates he might have been safe, but for Encarnacion there was no reason to risk it there. []

  • jpftribe

    EE is slow as hell and that’s just a bad coaching decision on Sarbaugh, who is as good as it gets. Gotta remember they’re young, even Jose, and they are going to make mistakes. Make em now so you can fix them by September. I’m sure there were coaching discussions about it this morning at the Jake.

  • mgbode

    Jose is not just young, he is mindless on the basepaths and shrugs it off as “eh, i’m an aggressive guy”

    That easy-going confidence is also what makes him so great at the plate, but I’d love for him to stop being dumb when he gets his inevitable hits.

    Hope you are correct on coaching correction, but this baserunning issue has been ongoing for some time now.

  • Chris

    While we’re keeping tally, add EE not getting to third base in the 8th inning on Santana’s single to right field with one out.

    If Calhoun throws home, EE is at third and Santana’s at second. If Calhoun cuts and guns EE at third, Brantley just scored and made it a two run game.

  • mgbode

    Yes, good one. It was somewhat masked by Guyer pinch-running and blazing home on the next batter anyway.

  • jpftribe

    That’s kinda my point. You can see he’s starting to learn he doesn’t have be the cocky know it all to be great. But that’s what got him there, so successful habits are hard to break. I really don’t think he is mindless, just too aggressive / competitive. I’ll bet they said the same things about Cobb and countless others after him.

  • Eric G

    They’ll flip the switch.

    (Is this played out yet?)

  • mgbode

    Let me clarify: Right now, on the basepaths he is mindless. He is, I don’t care what the situation is or how many feet I’ll probably be out by, I’m running to the next base.

    He obviously is an intelligent young man as you do not become the hitter he has become without a ton of work to develop your own skills as well as learn the opposition.

    I agree that it is always easier to get an over-aggressive guy to tamper down a bit than an under-aggressive guy to become more aggressive. I just want to see him make that transition.

  • jpftribe

    Ohhh, that reminds me. Could be tweet of the week:
    https://twitter.com/TJZuppe/status/890399780895117312

  • Chris

    Speaking of Guyer, why was he in left field at the end of the game? Was it really necessary to put Otero into the lineup? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5959e4f12652fc3b815746d44e648a9872c139eb060080d000d1cdd8b9afa262.png

  • mgbode

    Because Tito wanted to gift all beat reporters with the line that Dan Otero was higher in the lineup than Jose Ramirez.

  • mgbode
  • mgbode

    See πŸ™‚

  • Chris

    You beat me to it.

    I had to look at the box score this morning. It looked so weird at the game. I knew that’s what had to have happened, but I was still confused.

  • Eric G

    I would argue that it’s the Cubs who’ve gone from suck to blow.

  • mgbode

    Funny, they don’t look Drewish.

  • Natedawg86

    You know what my first thought is every play at the plate? Hope he doesn’t get injured, especially when the play at the plate involves EE and Brantley. To me, these are the most likely to get injured which would kill us.

  • mgbode

    A good consideration to add to that decision as well.

  • Harv

    In addition to Rajai, they might miss Napoli a little bit – not fast but really read outfielders and catchers well.

    I’m giving Zimmer a quasi-pass. He’s a great dane puppy figuring out a lot on the fly, and though he’s had bouts of brain lock he’s also erring on the side of aggression, which is way better than playing scared. Ramirez on the base paths reminds me a bit of Vizquel, who was fast enough but did all sorts of stupid things well into his 30s.

    Also, a little daily love for Zimmer? Going to center for the homer and with the pitch the other way for the double? Also also, note that he was scuffling after the all star break, Tito gave him Sunday off to clear his head and he’s been tearing it up since.

  • mgbode

    Sigh. I did not mention Mike Napoli on purpose so that I did not need to besmirch his name as I think he is a quality man. Alas, Napster was -5.2 in baserunning and was by far the worst on the 2016 Indians in terms of creating outs instead of runs on the basepaths.

    Agree w/ you on Zimmer. I used his game-clinching double to show him some love at the jump. With great speed comes great responsibility on the basepaths, but he is still a rook learning what he can and cannot do.

  • Harv

    Napoli was not only bad, but that bad? One of these days (when retired with oodles of time) I shall explore the basis of some of these stats, and try to figure out where they tell fibs and/or where my eyes do.

  • scripty

    Just throwing this out there, it seems sometimes they try to guarantee the run at home by having the guy who singled go for a double to be caught in a rundown, to have teams cut the throw off near the mound and focus on the sure out. I bet I’ve seen that 5-10 times the past two seasons. I have seen it by all sorts of players, I wonder if this is some bizarro 1970’s NL theory about ensuring a run.

  • mgbode
  • Tonyabharvey

    Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family! !pa196:
    On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
    !pa196:
    ➽➽
    ➽➽;➽➽ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash196HomePortGetPay$97Hour β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…βœ«β˜…β˜…:::::!pa196l..,..

  • Chris

    In his defense, running wasn’t the problem.

  • scripty

    Once Yandy gets a few more at bats, he’ll qualify for AAA stat leaders and his OBP would lead the league.