Indians

On the current iteration of Bradley Zimmer

Through 53 big league plate appearances, Cleveland Indians top prospect Bradley Zimmer has been better than advertised. The lanky outfielder with the shaved yet still unkempt facial hair has provided a significant upgrade over the Indians other options in center field.

Indeed, Zimmer’s success has been both a boon and troublesome. The 24-year-old has brought offensive life and a large defensive upgrade in center field stabilizing a middling position. On the other hand, the Indians recalled Zimmer before they would have liked and now sending him down to avoid super-two thresholds would be a tough sell unless the bottom falls out.

Zimmer has looked like an everyday player since making his Major League debut, a notion which Let’s Go Tribe’s Matt Lyons discussed with precision.

Even if we get the worst of Zimmer against left-handed pitchers, he will draw walks and play better defense than either of Jackson or Almonte. And with Zimmer’s speed, taking a free base as opposed to a double here and there is not the end of the world. He’s going to strike out a lot, sure, but so are a lot of players in baseball nowadays. Zimmer is the more talented player, he plays better defense no matter the handedness of the opposing pitcher, and his goatee is fabulous.

While Zimmer’s goatee is anything but fabulous, the Indians are simply better with Zimmer in the game right now. With 53 plate appearances, an unbelievably small sample it is time to see how Zimmer’s big league start compares to reasonable expectations of his performance based on minor league track record.

Before the season began, when Jeff Nomina still cared about baseball we discussed Zimmer in detail.  In this I discussed Zimmer’s offensive profile which is in many ways lofty for his position and in one way limited thanks to strikeouts.

The large question for Zimmer entering the big leagues was whether his above average power, walk rate, and base running value would be so loud as to quiet the limitations of his strikeout rate. To this point his strikeout rate has been silenced by big time power production. See the below home run for visual confirmation.

The next question is, what about Bradley Zimmer is real?

Courtesy of Fangraphs

One of the really positive pieces to Zimmer’s start at the big league level is that excluding ISO/SLG there are no major outliers which scream regression. As long as Zimmer’s strikeout remains at 30 percent or better he can manage to carry the profile with other tools and so far that has happened. Perhaps most interesting with regard to Zimmer is that he runs a high strikeout rate because of swing and miss, not chasing pitches out of the zone. Zimmer has chased only 18 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.

For context, if he qualified in terms of plate appearances, this would be fifth best in baseball. Of course, this will likely a decline a bit but he does a phenomenal job just swinging at strikes. The K-rate is unlikely to modulate above 30 percent as once feared.

While the BABIP is high, Zimmer has two things that tend to raises BABIP: Speed (his legs appear to need but five steps from station to station) and contact authority.

First, in regard to his speed:

 

Further, minor league BABIP is a really good proxy for contact quality and BABIP skills, all these parts point to sustainability. Likely not at .357 but Zimmer should carry a .315+ BABIP. Of course, his pull tendencies are a piece to watch out for as the shift saps pull hitters BABIP, but so far Zimmer has used the whole field. Contact dispersal will likely regress shaving some BABIP but still remaining above average there.

To be blunt: Zimmer has been absolutely shredding baseballs. Among players with at least 30 batted ball events, Zimmer is 17th in barrels per batted ball event.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Look at some of the names on this list. Former MVPs. Home run leaders. All-Stars. Mike Napoli. Zimmer is blistering the baseball in a small sample, and based on track record there is no reason to believe that he will not have significantly above average contact quality.

Time to address the ISO spike/slugging improvement. It is true that a part of it is certainly noise that will be filtered out as the sample grows. However, can a he run an elite .220 ISO? Probably.

Zimmer has fantastic contact authority as demonstrated above and wielding minor league data. Further, hitting at Progressive Field is incredibly favorable for left-handed hitters. Baseball Reference’s park factor by batter handedness has Progressive Field as the most favorable park for left handed hitters in all of baseball. This after being second to only Coors in 2016 for left handed batters. Though Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Michael Brantley have all made power adjustments in their careers, Progressive Field has been a strong aide to these changes. In this sense, while Columbus’ home park is favorable, Zimmer may be playing half of his game in the most favorable hitting environment of his career which certainly will strengthen his power production.

All of this analysis comes with a giant caveat of the sample size. However, both surface level analysis and underlying data suggests that Bradley Zimmer’s game transitions beautifully to the big league level.

  • mgbode

    I am still getting used to this world where most first-round draft picks of the Indians enjoy MLB success (to varying degrees but after the Trevor Crowe picks??? wowza)

  • jpftribe

    Nice piece Snarky. I’m totally with Matt on needing his defense, period. But those o-swing numbers are sweet! Thanks for doing the leg work on this. Good stuff.

  • CBiscuit

    Why is he Snarky?

  • mgbode

    his twitter handle is @snarkyhatman

  • CBiscuit

    No, I mean why isn’t he more sincere and sweet…and just–I don’t know–lighthearted and joyful? Life is a beautiful thing, Bode. There are many majesties and joys, that why would one need to be so cynical? I just don’t get it, Bode.

    PS. What’s a twitter?

  • MartyDaVille

    Don’t even try to get it. He’s an associate editor and you’re not. There are mysteries our puny non-associate-editor minds cannot comprehend.

  • jpftribe

    Twitter is the 24 hour, 140 character Land of Snark, most of which are Sleestacks.

  • jpftribe

    Salazar to the DL? Kick the can down the road……

  • woofersus

    Is it just me, or are we seeing a strong trend of young players’ power numbers almost immediately increasing upon reaching the majors? It’s not just the Indians, is it? I know home runs are up overall and there are several reasons for that, but are players really approaching at-bat’s differently in AAA than in MLB? (and I assume they’re using the same balls…) Are the ballparks in Columbus and Akron particularly bad for power numbers?

    We saw from Naquin and Lindor already, and even Jose Ramirez, though he struggled mightily in nearly all ways in 2014, has had a higher Slugging percentage and ISO in the majors than he did in the minors. The trend for more power to develop after a player has arrived in the majors isn’t new, but the suddenness of these power surges makes me wonder if there’s a wider trend out there and what it says.

  • CBiscuit

    Sleestacks?! You damn kids nowadays with your lingo and smoking those jazz cigarettes!

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  • mgbode