Rookie DeShone Kizer closing gap on Cody Kessler
June 21, 2017Ricans Run Wild: Ball Played
June 22, 2017The Cavs and the Warriors. The Warriors and the Cavs. Despite the hectic-ness of the past week of NBA news and rumors, the fate of the NBA likely remains hyper-focused on these two super-powers.
Thus, it is a useful routine to see how these two rosters could continue to evolve this summer. What may happen? Who knows exactly what could come next as we soon approach free agency and tonight’s NBA Draft. But we do know generally where these two teams stand in relation to the projected salary cap, tax line, and with all their current contacts.
The 2017-18 NBA’s regular season salary cap is estimated to be $101 million and the tax line projection is $121 million. These are legitimate increases over the $94.1 million and $113.1 million figures, respectively, from the past season. But the jumps aren’t as intense as last summer with the league’s new TV deals. The league’s new Nike contract and jersey sponsorships provide a decent boost of revenue, nonetheless.
*Edit based on some news on late Wednesday* It appears the NBA salary cap may actually only be $99 million for the 2017-18 season, per MassLive.com’s Jay King. Take this into consideration as you read the details below.
There are different sets of rules that prohibit certain player acquisition methods for over-the-cap and over-the-tax teams. The Cavs are facing what would be their third consecutive season over the tax; this presents the league’s daunting repeater tax rates, which go above and beyond the regular tax rates. The Warriors will likely be entering the tax status for the first time in recent memory after signing Kevin Durant to open cap space last summer, as the Cavs did with LeBron James in July 2014.
The Warriors have very few players guaranteed and on the books for 2017-18; the Cavs are nearly the opposite. The Cavs have been rumored in countless conversations over the last week; the Warriors offseason should be relatively ho-hum, besides some end-of-the-rotation decisions.
Here’s a detailed look at where things stand for both franchises today:
Cleveland Cavaliers outlook
- Guaranteed contracts – $125.2 million for eight players (L. James, K. Love, K. Irving, T. Thompson, J. Smith, I. Shumpert, C. Frye, R. Jefferson)
- Options and non-guarantees – $2.8 million for two players (E. Tavares, K. Felder)
- Cap holds – $15.9 million for five players (K. Korver, J. Jones, D. Jones, Deron Williams, Derrick Williams)
- Total currently on the books – $143.9 million for 15 players
Without doing anything, the Cavs are already over the tax line for 2017-18. I had nearly forgotten about the fact that Channing Frye still had $7.4 million guaranteed for this coming season. So alas, the Cavs are still armed with relatively little flexibility, unless they could potentially find takers for Frye and/or Shumpert’s $10.3 million guarantee.
The other big dynamo to potentially fall is Kevin Love, of course. He is owed $46.8 million guaranteed over the next two seasons, with a $25.6 million player option for 2019-20. These are giant potential moving pieces. It’s uncertain exactly who’s running the ship personnel-wise for the Cavs. But they’ll have to be creative if they’re going to avoid a giant tax burden this coming season.
With so many bigger puzzle pieces, it’s difficult to project what may happen with those five cap holds. Maybe they all could return if the Cavs still have open roster spots and they’re willing to take a near-minimum deals? The Cavs will have the taxpayer’s mid-level exception at their disposal (est. $3.58 million), but some of that will likely go to 2015 draft pick Cedi Osman. Everything else is a giant toss-up at this point.
Golden State Warriors outlook
- Guaranteed contracts – $37.5 million for five players (K. Thompson, D. Green, D. Jones, K. Looney, P. McCaw)
- Options and non-guarantees – $27.7 million for one player (K. Durant)
- Cap holds – $57 million for nine players (S. Curry, A. Iguodala, S. Livingston, Z. Pachulia, J. McAdoo, M. Barnes, I. Clark, J. McGee, D. West)
- Total currently on the books – $122.2 million for 15 players
It’s bonkers to see only $37.5 million guaranteed and on the books for the Warriors right now. That’s just barely more than LeBron’s $33.2 million deal alone! But the numbers will soon jump up quickly and extravagantly for Golden State. The biggest reason will likely be Stephen Curry, who is an unrestricted free agent. As a two-time MVP, he’s eligible for the super-max new deal, despite only having eight years of league experience.
Curry’s new maximum deal would start around $35.4 million (edit: now $34.6 million). That’ll happen for sure. Durant is expected to decline his player option, but since the Warriors don’t own his early Bird or full Bird rights, the math gets complicated. If the Warriors clear the open cap space by removing their cap holds, they could potentially pay him up to that $35.4 million max (edit: now $34.6 million). Otherwise, the maximum raise with the non-Bird exception is only 120 percent of his previous salary ($31.8 million). This seems to be the expected route. Add at least $66 million for Curry and Durant and the Warriors are already over the salary cap.
This makes things especially fascinating to watch for the vital rotation cogs Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, and the other assorted role player free agents. Will they chase larger paydays elsewhere? Will they take a substantial pay-cut (i.e. mid-level exception-type money) to stay and go for a third title in four years? The early odds would be on mass departures, so stay tuned on whatever other veterans may attempt to take their spot out in the Bay.
For good measure, here’s where the two 2016-17 NBA conference finalists also stack up with their current salaries:
Boston Celtics outlook
- Guaranteed contracts – $69.1 million for eight players (A. Horford, A. Bradley, T. Zeller, J. Crowder, I. Thomas, J. Brown, M. Smart, T. Rozier)
- Options and non-guarantees – $2.8 million for two players (J. Mickey, D. Jackson)
- Cap holds – $37.1 million for five players (A. Johnson, J. Jerebko, K. Olynyk, J. Young, G. Green)
- Total currently on the books – $109.0 million for 15 players
If there’s one team that’s more heavily involved in every single league rumor than the Cavs, it’s the Celtics. One day, there are Isaiah Thomas trade rumors. The next day, they traded the No. 1 pick (expected to be point guard Markelle Fultz tonight) for the No. 3 pick and a future first-round pick (exact year TBD). The Celtics are somewhat stuck between a rock and LeBron James. Do they try and get younger? How exactly do they follow up last year’s big signing of Al Horford, who just turned 31?
The most obvious method is by clearing out those pesky cap holds and freeing up enough open salary cap space for another max free agent. Gordon Hayward and Blake Griffin remain in the constant rumor mill. There are lots of available point guards (Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague), but that’s not a likely move considering Thomas’ presence. And speaking of IT, he’s likely due for a giant pay increase next summer.
So the slate remains pretty wide open for Boston. Do they pull the trigger on a mega-deal for Jimmy Butler? Would Butler be interested in departing Chicago? Are there any other candidates that could be a good fit Boston’s short-term and long-term aspirations? Does any of this even matter as long as LeBron James remains in the Eastern Conference?
San Antonio Spurs outlook
- Guaranteed contracts – $70.6 million for seven players (L. Aldridge, K. Leonard, T. Parker, D. Green, K. Anderson, D. Murray, D. Bertans)
- Options and non-guarantees – $19.1 million for three players (P. Gasol, D. Lee, B. Forbes)
- Cap holds – $34.4 million for five players (M. Ginobili, P. Mills, D. Dedmon, J. Simmons, J. Anthony)
- Dead cap – $3.1 million for two players (T. Duncan, L. Jean-Charles)
- Total currently on the books – $127.2 million for 15 active players
It’s weird to see Tim Duncan’s name still on any NBA analysis, but here’s basketball math at its most football-like. The Spurs have that $3 million-ish in dead cap for the 2017-18 season because of two waives, but they should still have a decent amount of wiggle room to be major players on the open market. That’s along with LaMarcus Aldridge’s name popping up in frequent trade rumors.
Chris Paul is a rumored phenomenal fit as Tony Parker’s potential replacement. If the Spurs let Patty Mills walk, they suddenly become very, very weak in the backcourt. Depending on Blake Griffin’s move, maybe it is in Paul’s best interests to team up with Kawhi and Pop down in Texas. Pau Gasol already has declined his player option and is expected to sign a longer-term team-friendly deal. The Spurs are always finding ways to be more and more creative.
Watch out as well for Jonathon Simmons. The defensive-minded former D-League player could get a big payday on the open market. He’s a restricted free agent, so it’ll be interesting to see what the Spurs could be able to do if they have their sights set elsewhere. This isn’t a very deep, athletic nor young team, but they always keep on winning. The last time San Antonio failed to win at least 61 percent of its games (i.e. a 50-win pace) was in 1996-97. LeBron James was in sixth grade.
Various links from around the web
- The Diamondbacks Might Be the Best Base Runners Ever [Ben Lindbergh/The Ringer]
- Yu Darvish and the free-agent class of 2017-18 are an appetizer for the 2018-19 bonanza [Jeff Passan/Yahoo Sports]
- This Is What It’s Like to Chase Your Pro Baseball Dreams … For 12 Bucks an Hour [Bleacher Report/Brandon Sneed]
- How Two Cavs Vets and a Sideline Reporter Created the Best NBA Podcast [John Gonzalez/The Ringer]
- Daniel Gibson Tells Us Why Life After Basketball Was So Hard, And What LeBron Means To Him [Oliver Maroney/Dime Magazine]
- How the NBA’s New Two-Way Contracts Will Affect the Draft and Beyond [Sam Vecenie/VICE Sports]
- How To Spot A Front-Runner On The ‘Bachelor’ Or ‘Bachelorette’ [Ella Koeze and Walt Hickey/FiveThirtyEight]
- Amazon’s New Customer [Ben Thompson/Stratechery]
55 Comments
Good breakdown, thanks Jacob. Cedi Osman would be a useful piece to add. Good, athletic defender who can hit an open three. Doesn’t solve the Warriors problem, but gets the Cavs an inch closer.
It pains me to say it, but the Cavs need to trade Kevin Love. I love to watch him play. I love the outlet passes and his bully moves under the hoop and the times when he gets hot from the three point line. He’s a fun, smart player. But if your ultimate goal is to put together a team that can beat the Warriors, then a player like PG-13 or Jimmy Butler would be a better fit. When the Warriors go to their death lineup, you only have to hide Kyrie on Andre Iguodala, and Kyrie can guard him pretty well. There’s no one else to hide. Replacing love with George or Butler would also improve the Cavs’ transition defense, which was abysmal in the Finals. Kevin Love just isn’t going to get back on defense in transition unless he’s already there. He’s not beating anyone down the court. Make this happen, Chauncey Billups.
https://i.imgflip.com/1rbl7z.jpg
I know it’s borderline, but no good pics of Clinton Burrell exist.
Love sold his soul for 10 seconds…maybe 8… of “lock-down” defense on Curry in the waning moments of 2016 Finals Game 7.
Thank you for your sacrifice Kev, but now it’s time to make another and improve the Cavs overall defense. Enjoy Indianapolis/Chicago/Manhattan.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62a272dfb52fdada6019febd347fa442c1f8cf1464306bf09d9e81d7d118ec3b.jpg
Well crap. That didn’t turn up in my search yesterday.
Funny, because it was the very first image that came up for me. There’s 2 Gs in “google.” That’s probably the problem.
Though you’re right, there’s not much else. (One fairly decent one of he and Lyle about to slap hands -but that’s it.)
I went back and forth on the Lyle pic.
I would have used your pic if I’d found it. Puzzling…
If he’s “borderline” and #50 was legit, then my WFNY whimsy-sarcasm-o-meter is twirling like a weather vane in a hurricane.
By borderline, I mean he is in the HOF as a Redskin.
That’s how you spell google? Who whudda thunk just skipping the first two letters could make searches go so sideways. Maybe now I can stop deleting history so obsessively.
ah. Not sure why my meter is so off here this week. Need a time out maybe.
Finally! Harv is going to get into the gif game!
(And now I wonder if there really is a search engine called “ogle.” But there’s no way I’m going to find out on my work computer. Er, I mean, on any computer. Any computer.)
Another Brown coming up soon suffers the same conundrum.
Seems to be a trend. I recommend a week at the beach.
I so wish. Way work is going this summer will be all I can do to schedule a few long weekends.
if there’s not you need to create one. But there’s no way there’s not. Now, go look, friend. We’ll call it client research/development. And use your billing software.
The NHL had an expansion draft for the new Las Vegas Golden Knights. All 1st and 2nd year players were protected. Teams could protect an additional ten. If the NFL had an NHL style expansion draft, what ten Browns players do you protect?
Welp, I just looked. And now I’ll be spending all of my time at the beach. Panhandling, but at least at the beach.
(In all seriousness, ogle.com takes you to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.noaa.gov
Pretty cool, actually.)
This was supposed to be a slow year. It’s turning out to be the busiest on record for me. I saw an available week and took it. There won’t be any others the rest of the year.
I can attest to it…all is better in the world after just one night at Garry’s beach time share! Thanks again! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/924199cb518f549182eaeb4cdb4ada96fed081a9360b5331dd3aa98c7b5a35a3.jpg
Do I have to protect 10?
how to survive a rip current … you are evil. Or I am. We’ve got to get back to work now or lose ourselves in the internet rip tide. One more kid through college one more kid through college one more …
#teamsnark
Half our team are 1st and 2nd year players…
Yes they are. Makes it fairly painless. It still gets a little difficult when you get to the last few spots.
I don’t think you’d be worrying about an expansion team take whoever is left though
Didn’t the NHL have a goalie rule in there too? So, it’d be a QB rule for the NFL?
In those five games – Kevin Love’s DRtg – 113, best on the team. Irving’s DRtg – 125, beating out the likes of Jones, Korver, and Frye. And this wasn’t a fluke, for the entire playoffs Love was tops in DRtg, Irving beating out only Jefferson, and garbage time minutes from Jones and Derrick Williams. For the regular season, again Love tops the rotation players. Irving finds himself no longer behind just about everyone again, but ahead of only Jefferson, Deron Williams, and Kyle Korver among rotation guys.
Big guys don’t get up and down the court quickly, true enough. But that’s true for everyone and we were worse than just about everyone when it came to transition defense, not just during the Warriors series, but all year. Transition defense starts with your backcourt. Our transition defense problems lie on Irving and Smith, who, as the guys in position to get back, frequently didn’t know where to be, and many times just didn’t make the effort to begin with.
I am on the Irving for a Paul bandwagon. But if we don’t do that, we need to find a Delly-type who will shore up our awful backcourt defense, and not pick up whatever old vet is laying on the scrap heap.
I’ll bite. This is a little harder than you would think. I’ll go with:
Joe Thomas, Christian Kirksey, Jamie Collins, Joel Bitonio, JC Tretter, Kevin Zeitler, Kenny Britt, Danny Shelton, and Isaiah Crowell are my first nine. I have to choose between Duke Johnson, Jason McCourty, Joe Haden, Jamar Taylor, Desmond Bryant, Brock Osweiler, and Calvin Pryor for the last spot. I think I’m going with McCourty.
A player’s defensive rating over 5 games won’t tell you much of anything. And you’re right that Kevin Love isn’t the only problem. J.R. Smith’s mental lapses are a problem. Kyrie Irving’s effort level is a problem. LeBron James roaming the passing lanes when he’s guarding a good shooter, that’s another problem. But would the Cavs have a much better defense with George/Butler in place of Love? I think it’s hard to argue that they wouldn’t. And I don’t think they’d be missing him much on offense.
If they take Brock, then they get his contract (same for Haden)
Yes please! But hey, some Browns fans (and reporters) seem convinced that he’s the best guy we have at QB. I don’t, but some do.
Guys, I forgot about Britton Colquitt and Charley Hughlett. Apologies to all.
Which is why I used larger samples as well. There’s no getting around that the Cavs are much better at preventing the opposing team from scoring with Love rather than Irving.
And I don’t think the question should be whether the Cavs would be better with George/Butler vs Love, but rather what in the realm of all realistic possibilities helps us defend the Warriors better. Which is where I’m getting at with that last paragraph. Obviously thats a much tougher question to answer, but its the question we need to answer. Besides, even keeping it simple as a one for one move, I don’t see how its not painfully clear that Irving for Paul/George/Butler improves our defense much more than Love for any of them.
Yeah, they are nutso. “He has experience” only works when that experience hasn’t proven how terrible he is.
Your counting of g’s in google made me think instantly of this:
Dr. Joseph Dolan: Right. Now, how long have you had these pains, Mr. Barber?
Fletch: No, that’s “Babar”.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: Two B’s?
Fletch: One B. B-A-B-A-R.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: That’s two.
Fletch: Yeah, but not right next to each other. I thought that’s what you meant.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: Arnold Babar. Isn’t there a children’s book about an elephant named Babar?
Fletch: I don’t know. I don’t have any.
Dr. Joseph Dolan: No children?
Fletch: No elephant books.
I think the biggest reason is the latest buzz out of training camp that Osweiler is looking really good and completing a lot of passes and showing a good arm, etc, etc. Never mind that there’s no live tackling and basically no pass rush. It’s just more silly season stupidity.
Today’s moment of schadenfreude…
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19706296/chicago-cubs-sending-kyle-schwarber-triple-clear-head
I imagine Joe Buck is devastated.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bz8b6j0CYAEiv1v.jpg
You don’t think Kyle will take his boyfriend with him?
More delicious schadenfreude: this, or the Lakers passing on Lonzo tonight?
That would be the succulent Kobe beef ribeye of schadenfreude.
So indulge someone who would have a better shot at understanding chinese math than the NBA rules. Curry is a UFA and there is 0% chance he does anything but sign a super max deal with GSW? And this is because of a new exception to the CBA driven by the Durant to GSW deal?
lolololol. Vince McMahon has nothing on these guys.
I think Kyrie is a better player than Love. But I also think offense in the NBA has become like NFL offense, so I’m not as hung on defensive statistics (the Cavs all but wrote down their intention to try and outscore everyone instead of stopping anybody), and I don’t think there is that much they can tell me about this squad. But there’s certainly no denying your last paragraph, and I have wondered for some time if it was time to loosen the reigns on Love and reel Kyrie in a bit. That might just be the only tweak they need.
I’m fine with the top of this roster – it’s the bench that needs the help more than anything. If Ty Lue is only going to go 7 deep the Cavs better get some guys worth better than #6 and #7 to man those battlestations.
I would argue that Irving is a much better offensive player than Kevin Love, particularly in the playoffs. You can’t pound the ball down low against the Warriors, they dig in with their long-armed wings/guards and force the ball out of your hand, then they have the speed to recover when you make the pass out of the double team. Love couldn’t do a thing when they were throwing him entry passes into the post, which relegates Love to being a three-point shooter on offense. He can do that pretty well, but there are better options out there who play better defense. So for the Cavs specifically, that is why I like trading Love over Irving, although frankly I would trade either guy for Butler or George.
Both in the playoffs, and against the Warriors specifically, Love’s ORtg was better than Irving’s. The numbers simply don’t bear out that Irving is a more useful player when it comes to outscoring the other team, despite his wizardry at putting the ball in the hoop.
“but there are better options out there who play better defense.”
This is the general refrain for the “move Love” crowd, but it wildly fails because just about every criticism leveled at Love is much more applicable to Irving. There is a much bigger defensive upgrade that can be made by moving Irving, and even offensively, we see that three point shooters off of Lebron are just as effective for our offense as watching Irving make dazzling plays that involve zero other players.
Our starters outscored GSW starters by around 50 during the series – bench the issue.
Durant-Steph-Klay-Draymond-Iggy outscored LeBron-Kyrie-Love-JR-Tristan for the series. 490 to 482. Starters is an irrelevant term. You want to go by who is playing the most minutes.
But what the numbers don’t tell you is how you initiate offense when LeBron is not the one doing it. Kyrie can carry that responsibility against the Warriors. Love proved he cannot. You just can’t feed him as your primary means of creating offense. You can against other teams, but not the Warriors.
First off, you do have Lebron, so you can rely on him to do the heavy lifting there. And I think it is far from clear that Kyrie can carry that responsibility. He can get himself baskets, yes, but he has not demonstrated an ability to run an efficient offense without Lebron.
I’m not sure what to say at this point. For as long as the NBA has existed, a guy scoring a bunch of points, especially in a flashy manner, has been conflated with an efficient offense. But the numbers simply don’t bear out that we are better at that whole outscoring the opposition thing against the Warriors, against the Eastern Conference playoff teams, and against the rest of the league, with Irving rather than Love.
I was hoping that Deron Williams would be able to take the mantle of secondary initiator of the offense, but the Warriors just smothered him, defensively. As much as we all loved Delly, he had the same issue. I think the Cavs still need to find someone who can effectively run the offense when LeBron is out or resting.