Podcast

More about a potential Cleveland Browns trade-down

Texas A&M
Texas A&M

I covered this on Friday in my WWW, but I needed to talk it out some more. I won’t be disappointed if the Browns stand pat and just take Myles Garrett, but I’ve been thinking a lot about strategy versus practitioners. A lot of the reasoning for not trading down is due to the Browns under previous management making bad selections. How much should that stinging history impact our analysis of existing scenarios and options? In essence, if you have bad management, that doesn’t negate good strategy even if they botch it.

Also, I discuss DeMarcus Cousins getting traded away from Sacramento for nothing. Kyrie Irving and LeBron James represented Cleveland in the All-Star game, nothing really happened, and that’s alright.

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  • RGB
  • Saggy

    I think I’m the only one on board with a trade down.

  • tigersbrowns2

    on one hand , the HBT has nothing to do with past regimes failures , so yes , trading down could work out well for the Browns , provided they pick well.

    and on the other hand , the Browns already have picks #1 , #12 , #33 , #52 & #65 … so , provided they pick well in this scenario , they have a chance to possibly nab 5 starters with these picks.

    something that hasn’t been talked about is TRADING UP … why not package 2018’s first round pick along with #33 or #52 overall from this year to jump into the first round again & have 3 first round picks this year ? or , would it be worth it to trade next year’s 1st rounder & #12 overall from this year to come out of this draft with BOTH Garrett & J.Allen ??

  • Chris

    Yep. You’re pretty much on your own on this one…
    https://media.giphy.com/media/118G4iBLLAAtW/giphy.gif

  • tigersbrowns2

    … so , i say stay at 1 , 12 , 33 , 52 & 65 … DO NOT trade one of these picks for Grop & stay put & let the draft come to us.

  • Chris

    Absoultely have to hold on to next year’s first if they don’t plan to address QB this year.

  • Chris

    The Browns are so bad at being bad, that they haven’t even won the baddest of the bad award since their first year back. ’00 was earned!! ’99 was just a participation award.

    I want my prize, dammit!

  • dwhit110

    You’re killing me Craig. It’s simple. This team needs talent. We’ve got some in places… (Collins, Thomas, Kirksey, Shelton hopefully Bitonio is healthy and Pryor gets reupped, maybe Coleman and Ogbah develop into GUYS) but you’re sitting there with a chance to take a player who’s rated well above other players in this class? Take the blue chip guy, don’t get cute and try to end up with 2 or 3 guys who *could* develop. Take the talent.

  • john

    If you take a look at how every “trade down” has shaken out, you would stop. just stop. please stop.

  • john

    If you take a look at how every “trade down” has shaken out, you would stop. just stop. please stop.

  • NankirPhelge

    Trading down would be a worse gamble than taking your paycheck down to the casino and putting it all on red.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d4e54623f41c627323d5a211783c06e96d36c422c396975564b02fa3e6089cd.jpg

  • maxfnmloans

    Fellow denizens of the WFNY comments section: If the Browns trade out of #1, I say we hold Craig personally responsible. During the 2016 draft, it was quite obvious the Front Office took the word of Pro Football Focus (a website) as gospel. Maybe this year, the dart landed on the WFNY section of the board. I happen to be the proprietor of a small general store in western Geauga county, and we have a wide array of torches and pitchforks, and Im offering 20% off to anyone with a WFNY commentor ID card. Rabble rabble DEY TOOK R JERBS. Burn the witch! Make Cleveland Great Again!

  • Margaretewalthall

    Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family! !mj218d:
    On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
    !mj218d:
    ➽➽
    ➽➽;➽➽ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash218MediaNewGetPay$97Hour ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★:::::!mj218d:….,…….

  • RGB

    BUT, BUT, PFF HAZ TEH DWEEBOMETRICS!

  • jpftribe

    Forget the job, can you tell me where to get a new Range Rover for $8700?

  • tigersbrowns2
  • BenRM

    Maybe she means 8700 x4?

  • BenRM

    Well duh! You obviously put it all on black.

  • jpftribe

    I WANT NICE THINGS! NOW!

  • JNeids

    You don’t not trade down just because of past failures. But you also don’t do trade down just to prove you’re better than past failures, especially when there is a clear cut #1.

    If you want to argue that you don’t think Myles is #1, then THAT is your argument for trading down (and I dare you to throw that out there to the WFNY commentariat – you will get giffed to death). The argument is not “we need to trade down just to prove we’re better than past regimes.”

  • RGB

    Traders gonna trade…

  • Chris

    The torch and pitchfork business must be off to a great start this year! I’m stunned you still have inventory.

  • Chris

    We dodged the Mark Sanchez bomb and ended up with Alex Mack. That one worked.

  • woofersus

    I actually tend to think trading up is usually a worse proposition than trading down unless you’re trading up to get some super high value, high certainty player. Trades up to get a Peyton Manning are justifiable, even if you have to give up a ton to get there. But I blame the tendency to trade back up, giving up some of the quantity gained by trading down for less certainty on the Browns tendency to ruin previous trade-down gambits. Especially when they gave up that quantity to draft somebody at a position where certainty is king, or when trading away the quantity to draft a particular position. The only time a team should trade up is to “go for the brass ring” as mentioned above, or when you think a massive value has fallen way past time to be drafted. The Browns have repeatedly traded out of certainty, then traded back up to target, rather than for value. It’s not the trade down that got them, or even the talent evaluation. (although there were definitely some failures of talent evaluation) It was lack of discipline in their decision making process.

  • woofersus

    Obviously it depends on the offer, but I would say I don’t think the Browns should consider trading down very far if they do. It’s possible enough of the teams in the top 5 fall in love with QB’s that the few elite picks drop a little further, but as good as Garrett looks I wouldn’t be super mad about getting the second or third best non-qb and an extra 1st next year when the QB we want might be available. I think anything that drops them past #5 is problematic.

  • tigersbrowns2

    good post .. and i agree with you , but as i mentioned above , if the Browns could get BOTH Garrett & J.Allen in the 1st round , i think they might’ve acquired the 2 best players in this draft … then i think it may be worth it.

    i’ve also got a feeling that one of the big 4 QB’s in this draft is going to slide a bit … i’m not sure who it would be , but if you think he’s the guy , then move up from 33 to get him if you have to.

  • tigersbrowns2

    i hope one of the upcoming articles will be dealing with free-agency instead of the draft … this will be upon us first & the Browns truly have a chance to make a big splash here first. THEN , the draft strategy might be based upon what we do or don’t get accomplished in free-agency.

    i’m seeing a lot of big name free-agents out there , especially on defense.

  • maxfnmloans

    it amazes me how this fact is overlooked every time this discussion comes up. They cant get one pick right, we expect things to work out if we increase the number of picks (and the dergree of difficulty)?

    If I was better at statistics (I really loved statistics, but the class was at 8 AM on the complete other end of campus), Id be able to come up with a formula for the probability of success of getting pick 1 round 1 right (P1.1), versus the probability of getting 3 or 4 picks right. Lets say probability of hitting P1 is 50/50 vs getting picks 5, 36, 57 and 2018 rd1 right (say its .4887 * .4106 * .3875 * .45) that equals .0349 percent. 3.49% chance of getting all 4 picks right, versus a 50/50 shot at getting the best player in any given draft

    Say we can even call it a success if we get player 5 right, miss on the other picks in 2017 and then get the extra pick in 2018 round 1 right. That’s still .5 * .5 which is about 25% likely. So, if you’re taking a 1 in 4 shot that 2 of the players are going to work from that boatload of picks, those two players (combined) have to equal the production of the best player in your given years draft. And at 25% odds, Id like a little better return for my gamble. If its even money, why bet?

    Trading away from someone described as a “generational” talent to get more picks and “fill more holes” is not smart. Its greedy. Its trying to build the team in leaps rather than steps. Its every GM we have had over the last ten years trying to prove how smart they are.

    Its a bad bet.

    There are very few certainties in an NFL draft. The best you can do is get them when they come along, and not be distracted by potential diamonds. We are the petri dish for creative draft logic. I’m hoping for once, we actually do what the numbers suggest is the better option

  • paulbip

    The Browns under this management has made terrible decisions. Last years draft picks have busted . Show me what player is an impact player. None!