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February 3, 2017The Cleveland Indians continue to push the chips into the middle of the table for 2017. Signing Edwin Encarnacion was the most obvious signal. Adding LOOGY Boone Logan to bolster an already strong bullpen helps. Despite signing Austin Jackson, the remaining obvious point of contention remains in center field.
Potential in-house solutions such as Austin Jackson, Abraham Almonte, and Tyler Naquin have red flags about their play. It is possible that none of them can handle the role full-time or their services will be needed to help cover in left field if Michael Brantley is not healthy. While right field is covered by the Lonnie Chisenhall-Brandon Guyer platoon (Bronnie Guyenhall), the rest of the outfield could still use a boost.
Many names have been bandied about as potential trade options. Billy Hamilton’s defense and speed came to the forefront again after the Cincinnati Reds signed outfielder Desmond Jennings on Thursday. But, what if the Indians continued to go ALL-IN on 2017? What if they took a much bigger risk with a potential huge pay-off? What if the Indians went out and targeted A.J. Pollock from the Arizona Diamondbacks?
The Diamondbacks are are in a state of flux currently. Former general manager Dave Stewart attempted to bypass a true rebuilding strategy by signing Zach Greinke to a contract that was too rich for the Los Angeles Dodgers to match. He moved Ender Inciarte to the Braves for Shelby Miller. He drafted poorly and his development system has been panned as being a generation (or two) behind as some have tabbed the Diamondbacks as having the worst farm system in baseball.
Current general manager Mike Hazen is one of the many former Indians front office members (2000-2005) controlling a team in MLB. His background is in player development, so the thought is that his first priority might be rebuilding through prospects. To do so, he would have to look at flipping some of his key MLB assets such as Greinke and the curious case of A.J. Pollock.
Pollock is a tough player to figure out the current-day value. He is a player who was a darkhorse NL MVP candidate in 2015 as a 6.5 fWAR player. He is a player who, at his best, excelled in baserunning, center field defense, and put up a .311/.363/.498 (131 OPS+) in almost two years of play in 2014-2015. A pre-injury Grady Sizemore is the best approximation for the type of player he was. The Indians are certainly interested as they demanded Pollock be part of the trade discussions when the Diamondbacks asked about Danny Salazar before last season. The Diamondbacks decided to trade with Atlanta instead partially due to their willingness to accept Ender Inciarte instead of Pollock.
Pollock is also a player who has a screw in his elbow surgically inserted in 2010. A screw that ruptured and caused him to miss most of the 2016 season when a second surgery was required. ESPN gave Pollock a forum to write about the injury:
I grabbed my right elbow and felt for the bone, I could feel the indent from a fracture. I had a flashback to the first time this had happened to me.
Earlier in spring training, we had found out that the screw placed in my elbow during a surgery in 2010 had split in half, and I had missed a lot of spring training games. There wasn’t anything we could do about that without an operation, but as the start of the season got closer, I felt ready to go — until I started to get up after that slide.
The fear is that Pollock might now be entering the post-injury Sizemore phase of his career. He did make it back onto the field in 2016, but it was cut short when he suffered a groin injury (defense was 1:0 PCR, 3 DRS in extremely small sample size). The potential is still great on his production, but his injury risk might match it.
The most likely situation is that the Diamondbacks keep Pollock to prove his health and production before flipping him nearer the trade deadline for a bounty of prospects as they have him under team control through the 2018 season. However, if they are willing to move him now, then the Indians might be a match. The Tribe has their own high potential player with some underlying injury concerns. He even happens to be the player whom was discussed in the Pollock discussions a year ago.
The price of Pollock would start at Salazar1 and include a couple good prospects such as Greg Allen and Yandy Diaz. It would be a hefty price for a risky player. Salazar had nagging elbow issues throughout the 2016 season that sidetracked his season multiple times and limited him to bullpen duty in the postseason. He could come back to the rotation in 2017 and dominate as he had to begin last year’s campaign. Or, he could have that elbow continue to haunt him.
The Indians do have a solid rotation even without Salazar as Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco,2 and Trevor Bauer have been steady with potential to be a devastating three-man group. Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson, Mike Clevinger, and even Ryan Merritt have all shown an ability to log innings of solid pitching.
The bottom line is that Pollock offers a incredible upside to the Indians. He could be devastating top-of-the-order bat with great defense at a premium position. A player who could change the outcome of a postseason series. He is also a player with incredible risk attached to him. However, if the Indians are truly all-in on this window to win a World Series, he is exactly the type of player the front office should be targeting.
More center field discussion at WFNY:
- Jim Pete’s center field targets
- Michael Bode’s center field targets
- Mike Hattery’s internal center field options
- Let’s Argue who is current starting center fielder
- The Diamondbacks would be looking to flip Salazar to another team for even more prospects. Hazen is well-versed in this asset strategy, so do not think he would accept only prospects. He will be gunning for Salazar. [↩]
- Note: he is overcoming a series of injuries too but none should be chronic conditions. [↩]
42 Comments
I would argue catcher is at least as big a question mark as center field.
But I would trade Danny for AJ just to tick off one more question mark on the roster.
Rotation depth would probably be added as a question mark. Bauer is fine as a #3, but hes not great there. Same with Tomlin as a #4 and Anderson/Clevinger as a #5.
If he is like Sizemore, we’d want him for more than a
cup of coffee
If only Yan Gomez could return to his former self…OR…Roberto Perez play like he did in the playoffs, all year.
I agree. That’s a lot to give up for a guy a year out of baseball for his second surgery.
Not sure what you mean there?
I am higher on Bauer than most, which helps in the equation.
It means he’s worth a latte.
Geez don’t be so thick, Bode!
I’m high on Bauer too. On almost any other team, he would have been considered a pretty good #3. He’s still young, and is about as durable as a SP can be, and works his ass off. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if leans more toward something like the league average #2 this year. Regarding depth, he’s the least of my concerns.
The issue is that teams usually give ten starts to their #7, and use 10 SPs over the season. Pitchers just dont stay healthy. If we get to a stretch of the season where we go Kluber-Bauer-Clevinger-Anderson-Merritt, we’re going to be worried about the pitching.
Now, if we get the great Pollack, or even the good, four WAR version, thats probably worth it. But it feels like shuffling the question marks around more than removing one.
Maybe this is just a lot of words for “I’d much rather make the package around Zimmer even though it means better supplementary guys”.
Liked the article, hate the cost if it includes Salazar. Just like I hated the deadline rumors of Carrasco being traded a couple seasons ago. This team, with this window, with this kind of arm, with this contract has no business looking to move it. They should be searching for guys like this, not trading them away. A starting staff needs depth, as we’ve seen. It can get thin before you know it, making the hitting and esp. the relievers less relevant.
Really interesting take. Can’t say I agree but I can see the reasoning. I guess I just prefer London Chisyer instead
Ditto
I am unsold on Danny returning to form. He was out half of last season and even after being medically cleared the team was reluctant to even attempt to use him in the post-season.
Looks and smells very red-flaggy to me.
Or if Meijia could develop faster…
I think by the time the season ends our starting rotation will be:
1) Kluber
2) Carrasco (Cy Young contender)
3) Bauer
4) Tomlin (fallen back to earth in terms of WHIP)
5) Someone else not named Salazar
Are you really not getting the…picture?
Fair. I think Pollock adds more than Salazar takes away & I worry about Danny’s elbow a ton.
Post season is not the time to see if he is ok. I am not sold on the red flag, I am more thinking he could pitch fastball and maybe not much else because of movement and strength involved post injury. I think with more time we may have had the chance to see more. If I recall, he was trying to play through it and they tried resting it a few times but in the end he needed more rest/therapy but he was best pen option for post season
He is close I think. ETA next year?
I’m just trying to get the Dolans more $$$ with all the times LeBron would rent out a suite to cheer on the RF platoon.
Tito taxes he heck out of bullpen too. How many games did Shaw pitch last year. Seemed like every game
Agreed. It is where we want our risk and what we think makes the biggest impact. There is definitely some shuffling.
The package of pure prospects I think would have to be higher is the issue.
75 games last year and 74 year before that
You are right, we’d never test out a hurt pitcher in something as important as the ALCS…
http://cdn.ebaumsworld.com/mediaFiles/picture/604025/85171285.gif
The second half of Salazar’s season was bizarre to say the least. Has to have a huge effect on his trade value.
“Pitchers don’t stay healthy.”
Bingo.
Trade Salazar.
Of course, you could obviously go the other way, but an elbow on a pitcher worries me more than a bone on an elbow of an outfielder with legs.
And it would be great to be able to trade prospects instead of Salazar. I’d be willing to mortgage the future for this window, which is as open as it’s ever been in Cleveland’s history.
Flaggy is never good
“Not named Salazar”
And you hope that’s because he was traded, not injured.
I get it, but, yes, I go the other way. Pitcher’s dont stay healthy, have enough that you don’t chance running a Morimando out there.
We’d get both. Pollack would play CF. Naquin/Almonte/Jackson can be solely Brantley insurance.
How much higher? Zimmer is an interesting case, depends how AZ would like to see him, but I think Bradley/Kaminsky would move the needle a lot more than the Chang/Armstrong? that would have gone for Lucroy.
Going by prospect rankings, people are currently a bit all over the place about our guys
Lucroy was Mejia/G.Allen/Armstrong/Chang for Lucroy but Pollack is better? If healthy he is at least. I’d be real interested to know what other teams did think of our guys though.
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I hate when people Dog Shaw he has been pretty valuable. If Danny’s Elbow was that bad don’t you think they would have grabbed a depth piece SP? It’s Londin Chizguy.
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I am not dogging Shaw, just pointing out the mileage that has been put on him. There will come a time where he will start to break down based on high usage rates.
Lol I was actually just making a joke on the conjoined name, and that I prefer Lon-Don over Bronnie haha
My conjoined name joke fell flat lol. Great piece though.
Or my counter punch joke fell flat 🙂
And thanks.