All about overtime rules – Hot Sports Boys
February 16, 2017All Buckeyes: WFNY Mock NFL Draft Strategies
February 17, 2017February is my birth month, but it’s a boring boring sports month. The NFL’s done. The NBA is slogging its way to the All-Star break. Pitchers and catchers report, but there’s not much to say about it after a momentary celebration of what’s to come. College basketball is heating up, but with a tournament like March Madness, it can only get so hot. And here we are pushing that rock up the hill just the same. Let’s push it together, shall we?
Have I told you about Patreon? I have? OK then. I’ll just say Patreon and we’ll get on with the program.
Bill Barnwell and reconsidering the possibility of a Browns trade-down
Bill Barnwell is one of the NFL opinions I value most in the media. He never really flies off the handle, and even when I disagree with him, I can see where he’s coming from. In his latest for ESPN, he makes a case for five moves each of the AFC North teams should make. I was totally with him. He suggests franchising Terrelle Pryor, which is fine, although I hope the Browns can get him on a deal that works for both sides. He recommends the Browns use free agency to build the lines of scrimmage and also sign Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is a nice step forward, but doesn’t preclude the Browns from using a high draft pick on a QB. That’s all logic I can easily abide. Then, he suggests trading down from the first overall pick if the Browns get “even a moderate ransom.”
Ugh. I read the headline and that’s all that I could think was, “ugh.” Of course, in the history of the Browns, there’s no great draft strategy that you can point to and say, “See? Just do that!” However, the trade-down scenarios are especially galling to Browns fans. There’s no Julio Jones, or Sammy Watkins on the Browns’ roster. Instead the Browns have the ghosts of Phil Taylor, Justin Gilbert, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel to show for all their wondrous trades. There’s so much pressure to JUST PICK THE BEST FOOTBALL PLAYER AT THE SPOT WE EARNED WITH OUR MISERY AND TEARS.
Alas, I kept reading Barnwell’s logical post. That’s when he smashed me over the head with a kind of painful logic that has you re-think everything you thought you thought about trading down in 2017.
This is when I start talking myself into trading out of the first overall pick. If the Browns can get a ransom, and if they can manage to not screw up the picks with another Justin Gilbert / Johnny Manziel kind of draft, it would be just fine to trade down. Myles Garrett is probably going to be great, but the Browns do need lots of pieces. If they can still end up drafting two first rounders this year, plus a second rounder who is a veritable first with the 33rd pick, I guess I have to be in favor of it.
The draft strategy is to take the best player available and I’m quite positive the Browns don’t have a Myles Garrett in their roster of players, but it isn’t like they don’t have a lot of young names. Emmanuel Ogbah is going to be starting his second year. Same with Carl Nassib. Nate Orchard, Xavier Cooper and Danny Shelton are all starting their third years. Of all players on the defensive front including defensive tackles, defensive ends and linebackers, the Cleveland Browns only have two players in their sixth season, and we’re talking about DeMario Davis and Tank Carder. Again, none of this is to say that the Browns couldn’t use a potential all-time level of pass-rusher, which is obviously the idea if you draft Myles Garrett first overall. It’s just to say that good long-term draft strategy involves spreading out risk and maximizing value.
It’s a bit of a kick to the teeth to consider, but the Browns’ inability to execute a good strategy is no different than their inability to run the West Coast offense or make either the 3-4 or 4-3 work. It’s not the fault of the system, per se. It’s the fault of the people enacting the system. These are the actors we have, and you have to assume they might know what they’re doing, and kicking dirt on a good strategy won’t make them better. So maybe the Browns should consider a trade down?
I can’t believe I’m even saying it, but I think Bill Barnwell might have talked me into it.
I’ve started playing Rocket League!
Look, I’m not good at this game and I enjoy playing it with my son, but I looked it up online and there are people who play this game at a completely different level. This is probably more like the future of sports than anything else I’ve seen. I mean, it won’t look like this, but this is on the right track. People will be able to relate to this kind of scoring and combining it with driving ability.
And on top of it, you might have noticed that there hasn’t been a lot of soccer zen lately. That’s because the clips are usually spiked off the internet by the time this post goes live every week. You know what happens when you take your digital media rights that seriously? I post stuff that isn’t locked down.
You can’t win in the long run by making your product harder for people to access. Don’t do that.
112 Comments
one of the bigger questions is if the above staffs (or some of them) were actually given time, then would they have been able to develop guys. changing regimes every year is not exactly the best way to help guys thrive. one year in and we already ripped up our defensive coaches. we’ll see where it goes from here.
completely agree that the current coaches are a separate entity. our history is moving on to “new” quickly
Agreed.
I think the main flaw of the “new” Browns has been giving up too quickly. There was a run in there where every year we were changing either the HC or the “future” QB or both. It is crazy to expect any success with turnover like that. Stability, not QB play, has been our biggest problem.
Butch & Romeo were given fair shots. Also, the only HC’s to finish above .500.
Stability doesn’t always breed success nor does success always breed stability. But the two are intertwined to a degree.
“Emmanuel Ogbah is going to be starting his second year. Same with Carl Nassib. Nate Orchard, Xavier Cooper and Danny Shelton are all starting their third years.”
See, the thing is, though, the Browns always have “starters.” Every year. Even at 1-15, they had exactly 22 starters on offense and defense. The question isn’t whether these guys “start” or how soon they do it; the question is whether they’re any good.
If the WFNY staff and commenters formed a football team and somehow convinced the NFL to let us play, even we would have starters – and all of us in our first year. It doesn’t mean we would be any good, or survive for the matter.
So I pose the REAL question: If WFNY staff and commenters formed a football team, what positions would we play? GO!
Define “play”.
Put me down for extra point holder at $1 mil a year.
Oh, there’s no money in this. Who told you there would be money?
So I’ve got RGB down as backup anything.
Backup?
Nuh uh.
Emergency.
Break glass only in case of strike or lock-out.
Dibs on long-snapper!
Yep.
Think Ken Dorsey.
Don Strock.
Take the money and run has been our draft strategy for the last 3 years though….
Right, I’ll mark you down as “Dwayne Bowe” then.
I should have specified that this game is metaphysical, based on how each person performs as a writer/commenter (the only real basis for forming a football team, in my opinion).
So for example, Bode (and he’ll like this) is clearly the starting Center. Doesn’t miss a play, always dependable and reliable, couldn’t do the job without him.
See, I have you as every down TE. Not making a huge play on every down, but when you do, it’s steady, you put points on the board, and are even hard-hitting.
But you can long-snap, too, if you’d like. Every team needs that, and we’ll be punting. LOTS.
Oh we are dealing in methaphors… In that case I would like to be Swagger. Sure I run out on the field a lot and am very visible but mostly I just poop on the field and watch with no clue as to what is going on in front of me.
http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/GIF/2014/03/Despicable-Me-say-what-gif.gif
I dislike what I have seen of Dobbs
I mean, we can’t ALL be Swagger.
And it’s comments like these that have you fighting for that #1 WR spot. This kid can play.
That’s okay. I probably wouldn’t ever be needed anyway.
No, we have to fill a team. Everyone is needed.
I have you down for Strong Safety. Starting. Now don’t screw it up.
Put me in, coach.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/596450e6310a628df070a605e003c2bdacde4455da42cc360d67c9f9a1542a29.jpg
That’s the mean streak we’re looking for.
Unfortunately, I’m not the coach. I’m just the slot receiver. In on far too many plays without any real deep threat; good route runner (grammar and spelling); more concerned with how he looks rather than how he plays; afraid of contact; most fans wish he hadn’t been drafted, at least in the spot used to pick him.
Sure, it can work both ways, up and down. As long as your evaluation of the player vs. alternatives is correct (not easy).
“Fleecing another team is a fallacy” – that’s an awfully black-and-white statement. I could argue that the Redskins were fleeced in the RGIII draft. But whatever, it’s just for argument’s sake.
That’s true assuming you have to give up quality to get quantity. They are not necessarily inextricable.
Trade out of a spot, give up on a franchise-changing bedrock for 2 role players? Yes, that’s no good.
Trade out of a spot because someone thinks that a risky QB is worth a ton of picks, and still get a franchise-changing bedrock player 5 spots later, plus solid role players? I would argue this is the best case scenario.
That chart illustrates why I think Barnwell is a joke.
First, Mister Football Analytics Data Guy cherry-picks years that support his point. Here’s some that he left out:
2012: Andrew Luck; RGIII
2011: Cam Newton; Von Miller; Jake Locker
2010: Sam Bradford; Ndamukong Suh; Tim Tebow
2009: Matt Stafford; Jason Smith; Mark Sanchez
I could go on, but after a while it’d just start looking like a list of random names. Which is my second complaint- what exactly is his point? There’s a lot of good players taken in the first round of any draft? That the next guy taken at any position are more than likely going to be good? Sure, fine, whatever. While true, it’s hardly helpful.
Third, more cherry-picking. In 2014, we’ll count Khalil Mack (who is good) as a defensive end even though he’s listed as a linebacker. In 2006, we won’t count AJ Hawk or Ernie Sims (not so good).
This is kind of half-aye analytics is why fans scoff at the stats nerds.
Thank you for saying it. I came on strong in defense of Garrett, so figured I’d let someone else destroy the Barnwell take. Glad you did (expected you would).
No, that is our free agency strategy.
dangit!
Yes, I was also going to rail about how he completely ignores that each draft is unique and fails to address the situation in 2017, specifically that the chances of Garrett becoming a star look to be much higher than most past first picks. But I thought you (and others) covered that.
Even in the metaphysical realm, I’m an OL.
Not complaining : )
This is a terrible idea to do on a Friday afternoon while also getting a ton of work-related items done. I am missing people, will probably upset someone as this is half-baked at best as I just threw out the first spot that came to mind. Others need to correct and add on to this list.
Metaphysical realm:
Harv – Deep (thought) threat WR
Max – RB (gritty, expecting lots of yards after contact)
Hop – TE & LS (see G_O explainer)
G_O – WR-S (shifty & shows up more than you’d think)
Bode – C (see G_O explainer)
Jaker – LT (will protect the QB w/ his detailed posts)
AllenP – LG (essential piece though not as attention-seeking as those surrounding him)
Humboldt – FB (irony of head trauma at this position not lost on one who raises awareness to them)
RGB – MLB (big hitter w/ the GIFs)
Nankir -SS (see G_O explainer)
JM85 – WOLB (quick hits work well in this spot)
JPF – DT (stout at point of attack, well-versed across sporting world)
nj0 – CB (he’ll cover all the bases)
steve – DE (do you want to fight him on the LOS? thought not)
TigerBrowns – Punter (cause he is always willing to wait and see what happens next possession/draft/offseason) π
I was thinking QB. He’s stands tall in the pocket, no matter how brutal the pass rush. And continues to throw long because of the lopsided score.
tigersbrowns2 – QB (unflappable, positive thinker)
Good commenter team, but we’re missing the writers (except you).
I had:
Craig – MLB – Strong, always defending (often the indefensible: Schurmurmurmur, trades down in the draft, etc.). But maybe he’s the lock-down CB, if RGB is MLB?
Kyle – PR/KR – Not in on a lot of plays, but when he touches the ball, it’s straight excitement, can score from anywhere on the field.
Scott – Tough one. Originally had him at QB, but I do think TB2 is our QB, for reasons stated by RGB and NankirPhelge. Scott must be a FO guy.
Pat – Kicker – This is a compliment. Really! Always puts it right through the uprights.
Joe – RG – Have to win with the ground game, and he sets the conditions.
Jessica – FS – Just free to roam the backfield, making plays.
I know I missed everyone else, but I have to do SOME work today. Others can fill in.
He’s our Danny White, Tom Tupa, George Blanda, QB/Punter hybrid.
CB(whatever he’s calling himself now) – CB, obviously, but definitely the Nickel. Comes on in passing situations, can cover anything, then disappears for periods of time only to re-enter and make the game (conversation) saving interception.
Moving Joe to RT (same reasons you state) & putting Josh in at RG (dependable, under-appreciated on the whole)
Garrett has shown poorly against SEC competition. He had only 4 real sacks last year
Fine, I’ll bite…even skip the “small” schools below
Ignoring UCLA? (sack in gm & controlled action)
2 sacks v Auburn
Hurt ankle v Arkie, then missed next week.
Played on bad ankle v Tenn & Bama (1 sack) and Bama game was great representation of opponent respect. They ran away from him every time. Never got to the outside to the O-left (MG side).
Missed 2 more games due to that ankle
Came back & yeah, didn’t have a sack against either Ole Miss or LSU — QB hurries, forcing issue in run game, he was good.
———————————
2015
2 sks v AzState, 3.5 v Nevada, 1 v Louisville
1 each vs Arkie, MissSt, Bama, LSU
2 sk v SoCar
———————————–
2014
sack v SoCar MissSt Ole Miss as freshman (MissSt was his breakout game – 10 tackles and just everywhere on the field – dominated)
———————————–
Tons of TFL, sets the edge incredibly well, QB hurries, sack production … he has some flaws, but man you are reaching
YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
But if they trade down and grab some winners in FA, you have to take that into account. That’s talent evaluation, too. So, trade down, grab a f*ckbunch of picks, and get Tyrod, and let’s rock and roll!!!
Plus—-you know I prefer Allen, and he can still be had if they trade down.
I don’t understand why you’d waste a mid-round pick on a QB. Brady-itis is everywhere. Mid-round QBs are a waste of time.
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perfect
can i be the conspiracy coordinator?
that’s not analytics – it’s sales.
i always say: If you hit .400 at night on turf against lefties at home, you lead with that.