What is your Rajai Davis home run story? – WFNY Roundtable
January 5, 2017Cavs acquire sharpshooter Kyle Korver
January 6, 2017
What’s up everyone? Happy first Friday of 2017 to you! I am refreshed after the holiday season and I’m ready to hit the ground running in 2017. You can help us run even faster if you help support via Patreon, but that’s just a quick plug this week. I want to talk about the NFL draft and quarterbacks.
DeShone Kizer is my top QB choice…
I’m not an NFL scout or even a good amateur talent evaluator. Like most of you, I watch a lot of football and I also do some real minor scouting via YouTube as well just so I can feel like I’ve seen guys play. I’ve had a good look at game film on Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and DeShone Kizer, and if I have to pick one of the three it’s going to be Kizer. I’m not talking about first overall. In fact, I can’t really figure how they’re going to slot in the value of all other picks in the first two rounds. I’m simply saying if I have to pick a quarterback and those three are my options, I’m choosing Kizer.
All three quarterbacks have intriguing characteristics that make me think they can bring something to an NFL roster. Deshaun Watson is my least favorite of the three. He brings a dangerous athleticism, but I have a tough time seeing him translate as well to the NFL as Trubisky or Kizer. Trubisky is especially intriguing because we’ve watched him play for so long. I actually remember him dazzling local cable audiences in the playoffs with Mentor in his high school days. He’s got a nice mix of passing ability and running ability. His college stats this season for UNC are phenomenal completing more than 68% of his passes with 30 TDs to just six interceptions. Trubisky is a very desirable candidate in many ways.
Kizer ended up catching my eye because of how bad a season Notre Dame had. Kizer shows all the physical abilities you want to see and has incredible touch throwing to spots, but he wasn’t able to show it as much as he would have liked in 2016. He threw for 26 TDs and nine interceptions, but his team only won four games. He was sacked 25 times. And yet with all this struggle I saw his interviews and he handled it all with grace and professionalism.
As we’ve learned over the years with guys like Johnny Manziel and even Derek Anderson, playing quarterback in the NFL requires an ability to be tough mentally. You have to be able to deal with adversity and leave your gasoline can at home when the drama inferno is raging around you. Tim Couch and Colt McCoy struggled with that in their own ways as well as members of the Browns. In addition to the physical measurables that show up in box scores and at the NFL combine, DeShone Kizer seems to have those interview intangibles that reduces a lot of the down-side risk, at least in my mind.
But what do I know? We’ll see if he’s even an option for the Browns at any point, presuming they don’t use the very first pick in the draft on a quarterback. If you put any credence in the MMQB Mock, the Browns will get Myles Garrett and DeShone Kizer. Let’s just say I think I could deal with that first round.
Weekly moment of soccer zen…
All about that pass game today!
Song of the week by Nirvana…
I heard “You Know You’re Right” on the radio while I was on vacation and it sent me into a spiral where I listened to that song on repeat for a whole day. When Kurt Cobain screams “Things have never been so swell, I have never failed to fail” on the way into the second chorus it’s just one of those moments in music that makes me realize why I love music. You may not like Nirvana, but this is the kind of moment that’s everything to me.
74 Comments
Being able to take a beating and deal with losses are the top traits required in a Browns quarterback.
Kizer is so hard to place. He has the arm talent to be the best QB in this class. But, man, that footwork and defensive recognition can be brutal.
Such a crazy year for QBs near the top and I don’t fault anyone for whatever order they put them in. Add Josh Allen to this pile (I honestly haven’t broken him down yet, will go through his film at some point) and Patrick Mahomes (a favorite of mine who has some severe footwork issues and shouldn’t be selected until Pick No. 33 in my opinion – but, getting Garrett, Adams, Mahomes? Oh boy)
I’m also a Kizer guy. I think he has all the tools, and that’s the best place to start. I’m also biased, as an ND guy…and I saw how that ended with my boy Brady.
If Mahomes falls to their 4th pick, he would be an interesting flyer (as all these guys will be). This draft is too deep on D to take a QB with their first 3 picks. Two potential all-pro talents and another Ogbah type talent would go a long, long way for this team.
there’s obviously a ton that can happen on draft day, but I would be surprised to see one of the upper QBs (Trubisky, Kizer, Watson, Mahomes, Allen) make it to the Browns fourth selection. there are just too many QB-needy teams and each of these guys has significant upside (alongside significant flaws).
I think you are probably right, and they should just let them go. They don’t have the structure in place for any QB to be successful and they have to make up for a decade of blown 1st round picks. They just don’t have the luxury of taking a developmental QB with those first 3 picks.
Carroll had Hasselbeck and Tavaris Jackson is first two years. Year 3 they signed Flynn and drafted Wilson.
Upgrade the line, the D and the running game and let Kessler dink and dunk your way to some wins.
Sadly, by definition, I don’t think intangibles fit into analytics.
I want Elflein at #33.
https://media.giphy.com/media/bVHnEXmWMlZwQ/giphy.gif
I have always hated “intangibles” as a reason to pick a QB – along with “he’s a winner.” To me, those aren’t good reasons. I think it’s just lazy analysis.
What are the intangibles? Make them tangible. Why is he a winner? Unfortunately, some of these answers can only be derived from things to which we aren’t privy – which leads to the “intangibles” types of analysis.
Things like being able to read defenses, willingness to learn, ability to learn, character – these are things that are tangible and contribute to someone a winner.
Analytics doesn’t have to be just about height, weight, and speed – things that can be measured easily and have been measured since time immemorial.
Me, too, but I guarantee that he won’t last that long. Guarantee!
Do you, by chance, live near a large body of water?
https://media.giphy.com/media/3orifcQtzqZDu77rEI/giphy.gif
Define “large.”
je ne sais quoi
In addition to intangibles and “all he does is win” I also hate “he gets us/he’s from here” as a reason to get a player.
Why do the Simpson’s have a portrait of Abe Lincoln?
http://simpsons.wikia.com/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln
I suppose anything with “Lake” in the name would qualify.
then how about this one : “he was born & raised in Toledo , Ohio & Toledoans are good at everything” … does that work ?
I like Elflein, but actually Pocic (LSU) more and Orlosky (WVU) ain’t bad either
Still, I think that given the FA versus Draft depth levels of OL make the FA market a better spot to improve.
FA Targets…
C: Groy-RFA & Tretter-UFA
G: Zeitler-UFA (Hue!)
T: Wagner-UFA
Build Kessler’s core strength and he might be able to get some deeper routes too. Still, I wouldn’t mind allowing Hue to work on Mahomes. The Brett Favre of this draft (or Jeff George depending on how he turns out).
most folks don’t know who U of Toledo QB Logan Woodside is … he did lead the nation in TD passes , was right up there in QB rating & was on the initial talks for the Heisman.
what is more safe or risky … taking Kizer at #12 overall or taking someone like Woodside later in the draft ??
you know what i say about those guys from Toledo …
WRONG
All data fits into analytics and you can see intangibles were a huge part of the equation for HBT by just looking at the 2016 NFL Draft. In fact, one of the complaints was that they cared too much about college production from players w/ good intangibles.
… i am telling you , this guy is “the man” !! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4c13b6794a82de43277128ac7177d441cfae90aa3c3dd924377af8fa5c42c1a.jpg
I say we rummage through his childhood bedroom. If we find any Detroit Tiger gear, then we take him off our board
đ
it is much more risky to assume anything with Woodside who will likely be a UDFA. if HBT wants to take him in Round 7 to ensure he is in OTA and camp, then I won’t complain.
Kessler is a better version of him from what I know (IMO – only seen 2 games of Toledo’s this year though. I’ll dig more into his film for you at some point though).
Pocic…that’s the other guy I was thinking of.
Maybe I’m allowing my high value of Elflein to be irrationally influenced by Mangold…
she is one heck of a weightlifter… oh, Nick. yes, he was quite good too.
Hmm. Not really. But even if I did, it’s pretty cold outside. Not really “going to the lake” kind of weather.
Was there something in particular that you wanted me to do at this lake? Preferably something that doesn’t involve getting wet?
http://www.socialmediatoday.com/sites/default/files/aweiner/files/creepy-king-o.gif
hi MG … he throws a better deep ball than Kessler. i predict he will be drafted.
i personally would rather see us nab a STARTER at #12 overall … whether it’s Peppers or whoever.
LMFAO !!!
hi HOP … neither does character. but after Gordon , Manziel & Gilbert , it now has to be part of the philosophy.
i still really like Kessler … get the kid some help on the O-line & on the defense & he’ll suffice.
Intangibles, winner, “it” = Colt McCoy
… and if you do get the time to watch film on Woodside , let me know what you think. yes , my opinion is a little biased , but i think he’s the best QB to play at Toledo since Bruce Gradkowski.
Corey Coleman has started his vacation off right. Play like a Brown, on and off the field.
Is it like a checkbox?
Intangibles – Yes
How do I downvote? đ
… and lastly , watch U of Toledo RB Kareem Hunt & TE Michael (can you say Antonio Gates) Roberts … these guys will definitely get drafted along with a slew of players from the MAC.
like this … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41cc8298beac9c18ba7f28ad6c3b67252e3625f862d9690f1eae029c8e39494b.jpg
he has denied all allegations … you do believe him , don’t you ??
I don’t have the details on how the Browns run their evaluations.
From the bits and pieces from baseball though — databases have all types of inputs gathered from all different areas. Everything from measurables, to learnings from scouts, to things off the field. Different teams use different grading and weighting systems to help rank their prospects.
So, “intangibles” would likely be many different categories of input entered and given different weights. Getting those things correct (or close) is the tough part and why these guys have PhD statisticians on staff.
Abraham Lincoln helped Eliza Simpson and Virgil escape to the north. They named their child (who would be Grandpa Simpsons’s great-grandfather) Abraham.
Who would admit to that allegation? But yes, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Still, it doesn’t engender much confidence to think that it Coleman was with some friends who beat up and knocked out some guy. If JFF and Josh Gordon taught me anything, it’s to heed red flags.
you are correct.
Agreed. You can assign a number value to anything, even intangibles. The question is can you fairly evaluate those things and weigh them accordingly in relation to measured values.
“hi folks … do not believe RGB. there will definitely be spending of the monies … put your seat belt on & enjoy the ride ! … love , Sashi.” https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8cd9abc960260187e1f472f64bb6fb7aed14e11e0a96789d18d517911664281.jpg
A few years ago, there was a great article/interview with an NFL talent guy (I think Greg Cosell was involved) and his premise was that intangibles ultimately become tangible and therefore can be analyzed. If not, they are inherently worthless or worth very little.
So if you are a hard core film study guy, then at some point that’d translate to better reads, more tackles, more production. Or if you are a QB, less INTs or something.
Something to chew on…