Cavs acquire sharpshooter Kyle Korver
January 6, 2017Browns had highest team rushing average since 1966
January 6, 2017Every so often, the behind-the-scenes discussions at WFNY are worth sharing. The latest Slack debate (of sorts) surrounds the Cleveland Browns and their potential interest in New England’s Jimmy Garoppolo.
The cost of a Garoppolo acquisition has ranged from a Sam Bradford-like first- and third-round pick, all the way down to some conglomerate of middle-round selections. Below, a few of us discuss what, if anything, we would be willing to move for the former second-round pick. The following Slack discussion takes place between 4:30 p.m. January 4 and 10 a.m. January 5. Do enjoy.
scott 4:38 PM
Proposing a Jimmy Garoppoloround table. Just listening to Bull and Fox and they’re saying if you think he’s the guy and New England asks for the No. 1 pick, you give it to them.
mgbode 4:55 PM
Holy hell… but sports radio gonna sports radio
scott 4:55 PM
Are they wrong?
mgbode 4:55 PM
Yes. There is no way to know that he is the guy and you are going to have to pay Jimmy big money in the not too distant future before you will really know it.
scott 4:56 PM
If he’s a franchise QB don’t you do whatever it takes?
mgbode 4:56 PM
How can you be sure he is?
scott 4:56 PM
Not my job.
mgbode 4:56 PM
I understand, but there is no discernable measure to say he is worth that price
scott 4:57 PM
You don’t presume they have ways? Video. Scouts. Sources.
pat 4:57 PM
I’m sorry, a backup quarterback should never be able to command the top pick. I can’t imagine an organization asking for that price with a straight face
scott 4:57 PM
He’s only a backup because he’s playing behind arguably he best quarterback ever. This isn’t Matt Moore
mgbode 4:58 PM
94 pass attempts in 3 seasons, 2 starts behind a great offensive line. Basically a third-round pick.
nom 4:58 PM
WHOA HEY PUT SOME RESPECT ON MATT MOORES NAME
scott 4:58 PM
Great OL?
pat 4:58 PM
Is he? Wasn’t Matt Flynn putting up video game numbers behind a future Hall-of-Famer?
mgbode 4:58 PM
Pass blocking… New England has been quite good. Sample size factor as well. His best game against a team (Dolphins) that was 29th in passing yards given up, 25th in passing TDs.
scott 5:00 PM
My point is that our opinions of his value means very little. If he’s the guy, as they’re saying, you do it. Same for Kizer or Watson etc. They’re saying do whatever it takes to get the guy
mgbode 5:02 PM
Yes, but asset valuation is huge. You are always guessing to some degree but the amount of risk on Garoppolo doesn’t equate to No. 1 overall. I wouldn’t, but maybe I could understand more at No. 12. If they want No. 33 and a little more… OK, now that is more in line. The contract is also a huge factor. Last year of his contract, now you would have to pay him now hoping he’d be the guy to make that trade instead of drafting Watson at 12 or Mahomes and 33 and you can ride them out for four-to-five years.
pat 5:02 PM
Right, but I think we can accurately state that no team should value an unproven backup quarterback that high. The Browns shouldn’t give it up for Jimmy G. There just isn’t a body of work to trust in evaluating.
scott 5:03 PM
There’s more than any collegiate QB.
pat 5:03 PM
In some ways I think it’s easier to evaluate a college QB than a backup. A great team and culture can make a mediocre QB look really good.
pat 5:05 PM
If Jimmy G had to step in for 12 games Matt Cassel style then I think that is a body of work you can do something with.
joshpoloha 5:06 PM
No way I give up No. 1 for Jimmy. No. 12? Maybe, if they think he could be the guy, but No. 1 is too much. You know the Pats will easily take No. 12 for him when it comes draft time.
scott 5:06 PM
I would argue being in NE has *helped* him. Learning from the best is a good thing.
pat 5:07 PM
But you can’t know that. Could be a Matt Flynn scenario. Impossible to say which.
joshpoloha 5:07 PM
I don’t know much about Jimmy G, but I do know about NE backups who have gone to another team that overpaid them and they didn’t work out.
scott 5:07 PM
“You know the Pats will easily take No. 12 for him when it comes draft time.” No we don’t.
joshpoloha 5:08 PM
If the Browns are on the clock at No. 12 and offer up NE, I don’t see anyway they decline that offer. But, obviously, none of us know. It’s just all speculation, both how good he is and what the Pats would take for him.
scott 5:08 PM
Matt Flynn was a seventh-round pick. As was Matt Cassell. Brian Hoyer was undrafted. Garoppolo was 66th overall. The whole “other New England backups” argument carries zero weight here.
mgbode 5:08 PM
Tom Brady is about to turn 40 years old. if Belichick believes that Jimmy G is a franchise guy, then he’s trading Brady not Jimmy.
scott 5:09 PM
Which is why they’re not just going to give him away
mgbode 5:11 PM
No. 1 overall pick is worth 2.5x the No. 12 pick. Over 5x the No. 33 pick. So, even if NE wants a first round pick, the value of that pick varies wildly.
scott 5:12 PM
Agreed.
mgbode 5:15 PM
Also for consideration, if he is that good and waits a year, then he can start for Denver or Houston or another good team that needs a QB. To incentivize him enough to stay with a team like the Browns, big money would have to pe granted upon a trade (what I tried to allude to above). NE also has incentive to NOT trade him to an AFC contender who needs a QB (Houston, Denver). And, there are not that any NFC teams in a similar station. So, the market for Jimmy would seemingly be among the bad teams who need more than a QB.
joshpoloha 5:16 PM
This is a serious question: Has there been a backup QB that was traded to another team, immediately became the new team’s starting QB and actually succeeded?
scott 5:17 PM
Brett Favre
pat 5:21 PM
Trying to think of some recent ones. Coming up empty. Was Kurt Warner a backup for the Giants before his swan song season for the Cardinals?
mgbode 5:26 PM
Yes, they benched him for Eli despite Eli. Then, the Cardinals benched him for Matt Leinart before giving Leinart between-the-20’s and Warner the red zone duties. He’d fall in the Joe Montana bucket though (previously successful QB who is an older, possibly injured veteran). Tony Romo is this offseason’s version.
scott 5:37 PM
Matt Hasselbeck is another.
joshpoloha 5:38 PM
Yeah, Favre’s probably the best example.
mgbode 5:42 PM
Do we count Aaron Brooks?
pat 5:44 PM
Hasselbeck is a good one.
mgbode 5:45 PM
would you give up the No. 1 overall pick for Hasselbeck?
pat 5:46 PM
No sir, I would not
scott 5:47 PM
Dude took a team to the super bowl. Hell yes I would. This is starting to border on keeping jaret wright instead of trading for Pedro Martinez.
mgbode 5:50 PM
Long career for him too. Really good (never elite) for two of his 10 years in Seattle. Pretty good for three. Pretty bad for five. Also, not sure Hasselbeck was the biggest reason they made the Superbowl, but yeah, they certainly got there.
pat 5:51 PM
I’m looking for a dare to be great situation.
mgbode 5:52 PM
Also, we haven’t even factored in how good we think Myles Garrett is going to be.
pat 5:54 PM
Oh man. Pairing Garrett with Emmanuel Ogbah is making me salivate. Could be the calzone, but it’s probably those edge rushers.
mgbode 5:55 PM
Hooker at No. 12, Mahomes at No. 33 and let’s go! that OL problem will still need fixed and so will a bunch of other spots, but still.
scott 5:57 PM
They will literally never be better than a .500 team without a QB. And I say this as a huge Garrett fan and Allen and Hooker.
mgbode 5:58 PM
That doesn’t mean you need to use the No. 1 overall pick to try to force the issue
scott 5:58 PM
Not to force it. But it wouldn’t be a non starter. Not to be confused with a Nom starter
mgbode 5:59 PM
And we are saying all this on Jimmy-G ahead of Connor Cook playing his first ever NFL game. He could be the backup with almost the same sample size as Jimmy G but in a playoff game (small sample size cannot be trusted).
davesterling 7:02 PM
The thing I worry about Jimmy G is the Hoyer factor. The same as the Kelly Holcomb factor, or the Derek Anderson Factor. These guys can have success until they build a body of film. They quickly get exposed after they play longer. It’s happening all around the league. The true great QBs perform and separate themselves.
scott 7:08 PM
I think that’s a disservice to Jimmy. He was a second round pick. Comparing him to those guys is kinda silly.
nom 7:09 PM
First off a Nom-starter would be some metric that tries to calculate Tribe attendance factors. Second, it was only one game, but Jimmy G tore the Phins apart. It was insane how quickly he was making decisions and getting the ball out of his hands w accuracy. It wasn’t Matt Flynn throwing it up and connecting on deep plays. It was systematically tearing the Phins apart.
davesterling 7:11 PM
With tom brady at 40, if Jimmy ist the guy, the Patriots dont get rid of him, even for a first rounder.
nom 7:13 PM
You think they’d pay him even w Brady having two more years? I don’t know. Maybe. And would Jimmy even stay? They’re not gonna franchise him.
davesterling 7:15 PM
I feel like if Bill B comes up to you and says “Brady is going to retire at the date of “x” and you are next in line. you probably stay.
nom 7:17 PM
Maybe. I get the argument. But if that’s in two years and most NFL contracts are for 3-4 I just don’t know. And like I said, Jimmy can likely make waaaay more on open mkt or with new team. I don’t think patriots can afford him and still maximize Brady’s last years.
davesterling 7:18 PM
I dont know. I think that being on the patriots is different.
wfnycraig 7:20 PM
Generically speaking if you think Jimmy is a long term NFL starter you definitely give up a first round pick. I’m not saying it will cost that much but it’s more important than anything else in sports I think. So yeah. If that’s the trade on the scales it’s worthwhile
mgbode 7:41 PM
You guys moved off the ridiculous notion of No. 1 overall pick. No one said the No. 12 pick could not be in play even if we disagreed on using it for him.
nom 7:46 PM
Is it just the top pick or like, the top pick for Jimmy and a third?
mgbode 9:50 AM
The Browns’ second round pick would be considered almost equal to most late first rounders to NE anyway.
davesterling 9:51 AM
I’d take a second and fourth.
scott 9:52 AM
Garoppolo and Garrett and another defender at 12 would make me unable to wear sweatpants for weeks.
[And scene.]
60 Comments
By this sample size logic, the Browns could have traded Kelly Holcomb for a top 5 pick after his 4-game run at the end of 2002 season.
QB is not our offense’s biggest problem…
http://www.arcticblubber.com/gallery/d/905-1/Capturecb.JPG
I don’t think I do it.
Like Bode Said, if Jimmy G was that great, the Pats wouldn’t be letting him go, for anything. If this rumor is true (I’ll bet my next WFNY paycheck that it’s not), this has “fleecing” written all over it.
Okay. So not a rumor, but just a talk radio hypothetical. I’m out.
“Tom Brady is about to turn 40 years old. if Belichick believes that Jimmy G is a franchise guy, then he’s trading Brady not Jimmy.” I’m with Bode, and I’d go even further: Belichik knows Brady can go down at any moment and he’s not a rebuilding type of guy, won’t sacrifice a competitive season.
I liked this guy’s swagger in college, and hoped the Browns would grab him. Thought he was a tad undersized, but see he’s 6’2″, 225, which is minimally acceptable in our brutal, wind-blown division. It’s just too hard to say whether he’s a systems creation, as has proven the case both with other Patriot back-up QBs and their “genius” coordinators. Belichik smells a sucker; I offer a second rounder, not either first rounder.
There are rumors out there the Pats want a 1st and 4th and that the Browns are one of the teams interested.
We all know the size of Belichick’s ego … i’m pretty sure he thinks he’ll be fine with Jacoby Brissett as the back-up. i think he’d settle for a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Jimmy G.
but , is Jimmy G really that good ? … i still don’t think this is the right time to pull the trigger on a “franchise” QB … we are still more than one player away from being competitive. How about we try drafting really really really good this year.
One thing you mentioned briefly is worth a bit more focus: of course Scott is right if you know he is your franchise guy you give up the #1 pick, or even multiple #1 picks. But that is the key issue. The Browns assuredly do NOT have substantial information that no one else has. Two solid games under Belichek do not turn a third rounder into a first rounder. We are left with the same uncertainty with Garropolo as with everybody else.
It’s nuts.
If the Browns are that certain that he’s their franchise QB, then I have officially lost all confidence and trust in their judgment.
100%. What is proper value for someone who might be good, might be a future star or might be another in the line of Belichik mirages? And here’s where I’m stuck: Brady’s excellence at 40 makes teams desperate for The Man forget that Belichik lays awake at night, worried and plotting a post-Brady future. And yet he has this guy on the block. Whole thing reeks of Lombardi cheese.
Making the trade for a No 1 guarantees they franchise him, regardless of his one year performance. You are not only giving up a No 1 pick, you are also guaranteeing a $20M plus salary cap hit in 2018. He’s not going to sign an extension for anything less.
Let’s not blow our inheritance on a week in Vegas with the cute barfly who’s not half bad at 2 a.m. Let’s use it to fix the furnace, replace the roof, and get an electrician in here.
All of the QBs you mentioned, who backed up Brady in some fashion and had “success” in NE are exactly what are playing into Billy’s confidence. He doesn’t care that Brady’s almost gone. He’s seen how his crappy backups performed in other systems and failed, failed, failed. He knows (as Bill Burr would say) he can put any QB in the driver’s seat of that Ferrari and just not crash the damn thing.
NO ON GAROPPOLO!
I’ve heard it argued that Brady shows no signs of slowing down and they’ll have to pay JG starter $ to be a backup for who knows how long; they drafted Brissett to replace JG in the backup role. BB is nothing if not a master of keeping his cap under control with cheaper young or discarded talent. It’s one reason why I could see as a possible explanation of why BB would be willing to depart with a legitimate talent. Also, not so sure they’d insist on a top of the first round pick as Bill finds pretty good success with lower picks who don’t cost nearly as much. I think he might be open to multiple 2/3s vs one first rounder.
I’ve heard it argued that as Brady shows no signs of slowing down and they’ll have to pay JG starter $ to be a backup for who knows how long they drafted Brissett to replace JG in the backup role. BB is nothing if not a master of keeping his cap under control with cheaper young or discarded talent. It’s one reason why I could see as a possible explanation of why BB would be willing to depart with a legitimate talent. Also, not so sure they’d insist on a top of the first round pick as Bill finds pretty good success with lower picks who don’t cost nearly as much. I think he might be open to multiple 2/3s vs one first rounder. *
Writers, sports radio guys, etc… like to say, “if they think he’s the guy….” — I’m sorry, but you’re paid to have an opinion, use it. Don’t try to straddle the line by saying that. Make up your mind and say yes or no.
In my mind, he’s a backup who has never had to be the starter. Never had to come into a season prepared to be the starter for the year. Never had to lead the team, even when he did start, since Brady was always the leader. I’d give up a 3rd rounder for him.
Yes. I don’t like the whole, “if you think he’s your guy” stuff. He (and many MANY before) is not your guy.
I was fond of the kid coming out of college, but there is not a snowball’s chance in the southernmost reaches of hell that I’m giving up either the number one overall or 12th overall to get him now. To me, it’s as simple as Bode’s point on the contract issue: you’re going to have to make a huge investment in this guy to keep him around before you’ll really know if he’s a #1. If you grab a QB in the draft, you have years of opportunity to see what he can do before you have to sink that big money into him. And I know, HAZLUMZ CHAEP and swimming in his Scrooge McDuck-ian vault of money right now, but that doesn’t mean you throw it around like it’s meaningless. If you could do it for say a third rounder, sure, why not? But our firsts (and second, for that matter) are more valuable in our hands than elsewhere. You know, until we Browns the hell out of the draft.
As with most silly season questions, the answer is to this question is: yes, if the price is right.
One back-up trade bait not mentioned here is Matt Schaub. Texans got him for two second picks, one that year and the other the next, and swapping firsts, going down from eighth to tenth. He had some pretty solid years and was, in my opinion, well worth the price.
Why wouldn’t Bill trade Brady for a mountain of assets?
Wasn’t sure in which of the Browns threads to drop this, but The Ringer today posted a very interesting analysis of how the top NFL teams are trending heavily toward measurable explosiveness in finding their playmakers on both sides of the ball. Including the Steelers, who whiffed on collegiately productive but bad workout guy Jarvis Jones, now benched.
Seems relevant to the Browns current emphasis on college production versus combine workout warriors. Will be interesting to see if the Browns tweak their philosophy in year 2, given the invisibility of their mid-round linebackers and receivers. https://theringer.com/nfl-playoffs-draft-scouting-explosion-seahawks-steelers-cowboys-patriots-chiefs-85ea73e65837#.f2etn68mc
This makes all the sense in the world. BB grabs his guy after Sashi trades away the pick for Kessler and Kindred, then gets a 1st and a 4th for his second rounder because Brady.
If JG is really up for sale, someone is going to give NE a 1st rounder + for him. Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if Kroenke, erm ah, I mean the former coaches agent’s son, traded for him and put Goff up for sale. FQB potential always brings out the best in owners.
Good question. How much of Bill’s success and reputation is dependent upon Brady?
I’m trying to think of current NFL QBs for whom I would sacrifice a 1st and 4th in order to set the Browns on the right track, and I come up with . . . Andrew Luck? Honestly, I cannot easily conceive of doing this for any current NFL guy. I can almost understand doing it in order to obtain the #1 pick in the draft if you know there’s a college kid that can’t miss – but we already have the #1 pick. I just cannot justify it at all.
I can’t imagine a world where any QB at age 40 doesn’t slow down. Favre had a season at 38 i believe that was pretty outstanding – the cliff he fell off immediately thereafter was pretty steep.
Another interesting question that was brought up in this discussion… historically, how many QBs who were only ever considered to be backups were given starting gigs for a different team and really flourished? We came up with Brett Favre and Matt Hasselbeck. Any other somewhat recent guys I’m missing?
I can’t think of any. Most successful QBs were drafted by that team or previously were successful starters for another team. Maybe Garopollo’s that guy? I would never gamble on it.
I didn’t mean to imply he didn’t want a ransom, just that that ransom wouldn’t necessarily include a high first round pick. It seems he might prefer 3 #2’s vs one high #1.
I think from the moment BB stumbled into choosing Brady in the 7th (let’s not pretend there was any genius involved) everything about TB has been/is an anomaly. My memory of Favre is foggy. I just know that TB is showing no signs of slowing down and is a complete freak of nature. I think BB believes in his system more than he does in any next QB and sees a cheaper Brissett as equally as capable as a soon to be much more expensive Garappolo who he can sell for assets now.
Does Steve Young count?
“…you’re paid to have an opinion.”
I, for one, am definitely not.
I mean for Tom Brady
lots
Age 40 season was outstanding:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FavrBr00.htm
Luck, Mariota, Ryan, Cam, etc. There are lots of guys. But, they are proven.
we were talking guys who had never proven themselves elsewhere. Young in USFL and even in Tampa precludes him
also, SF kept Young over Montana
The question quickly became what do you think the correct price is? So, would you go higher than that Schaub price?
This is how the Browns ended up taking Mingo FWIW
Oof, completely blocked that out when I read it the first time.
if I cared enough to re-visit that, would compare Mingo’s performance in those tests to the other pass rushers available, and see how they all fared. Clearly, teams have to give some weight to how they played football, but how to account for those other factors – level of competition, great teammates providing more opportunities and vice versa, desire to compete and excel – is the ongoing problem for drafters. I’m not faulting Sashi/PoDesta for their emphasis, but find it somewhat disconcerting that good teams are heading the opposite direction.
This why the HBT gets the big bucks. Not only do they have to evaluate Jimmy G.’s potential based on a limited pro career, but they must compare him to all the top guys coming out this year. As Bode has pointed out, with a rookie we get a 4 year look see before heavily investing in him, but with Jimmy G. we have to decide soon, without all of that evaluation time. The worst thing would be to trade for him, then he has a great year and we lose him as an UFA. I realize that we could place the franchise tag on him, but this would still not be a great situation. I remember that Jimmy G has an extremely quick release, and was considered very accurate coming out of college. However, I too, am suspicious if Bill B would trade him if he really is that good, and Brady being 40 could suffer that career ending injury at any time. No matter how great a shape he keeps himself in, his joints, tendons, are 40 and are more susceptible to serious injury than a 25 year old.
No worries
Banner has since detailed why the Browns took Mingo pointing to the importance of the explosiveness in particular his 10yd and 20yd splits
level of competition – SEC at its height
desire to compete – played though he only had 1 working shoulder
excel – well, here was an issue at the NFL level (not in college)
Even when you think you nail everything, you will still miss. Heck, Dallas only got Dak Prescott because the Broncos traded up for Paxton Lynch and the Raiders jumped ahead of them to take Connor Cook.
Jarvis Jones had predraft injury concerns about his explosiveness. His weak production is tied partially to the injury concerns he had pre-draft. Somtimes these work out for the team (Gronkowski) but here it didnt. Teams cant be taking injury risks that early, explosive or not.
Chaun Thompson was the Butch Davis “explosive” guy, along with that one safety and Quincy Morgan.
There’s never 1 factor.
Peyton Manning did the same thing … it didn’t take him long to fall off in Denver.
so, is that a NO?
ha – i was referring specifically to the sports radio guys!!
hi B-BO … good to see you posting.