NFL Draft: Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore ranked No. 2 and 3
January 18, 2017Did it matter that the Browns won a game?
January 18, 2017The 2017 Cleveland Indians might have an outfield problem. Center field is a barren wasteland that the defensively challenged Tyler Naquin and might-be-adequate Abraham Almonte are slated to fill. Left field is a gigantic question mark centering on the health of Michael Brantley’s twice surgically-repaired shoulder. But hey, right field seems set with a Brandon Guyer-Lonnie Chisenhall platoon. One-out-of-three ain’t bad, right? Oh, it is?
The rumor of the week to solve one of the issues was signing Jose Bautista. While some at WFNY have favored the option, others have adamently opposed it. The current MLB Hot Stove talk though is that Joey Bats is finalizing a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays that will be worth $18 million for one year with options that could push it to a three-year $60 million contract.
The problem of center field would have remained regardless. There are some internal possibilities — namely Greg Allen or possibly Bradley Zimmer. None of those options are proven entities that would be desired for a World Series contender (or even AL frontrunner depending on what you think of the Boston Red Sox). So, the Indians need at least one good outfielder to feel comfortable about being able to compete over the long haul of a 162 game regular season plus the added postseason schedule.1
The MLB Hot Stove is down to a simmer given the lack of interesting players (Angel Pagan might be the most interesting outfielder once Jose Bautista signs), so the options are all on the trade market. Trades rarely happen this time of year of any significance, but let’s gear up and be ready for what the Indians could be considering either now or during the season. Each of these players has appeared on the trade rumor circuit either at the trade deadline last July or in this offseason.
Defense-first center fielders
WFNY already introduced a new metric with Probable Catch Ratio (PCR) and Probable Catch Units (PCU) based on the defensive data now available at Baseball Savant. So, it only makes sense to apply it to help fix the Indians largest issue.
Mark Shapiro might not be able to trade Kevin Pillar to the Indians due to the optics it would send to the fans after the Tribe signed Edwin Encarnacion. Heck, the rumor of Cleveland still talking to Bautista might have spurred the Blue Jays to action on trying to finalize his contract. Still, a trade of Kevin Pillar for Greg Allen and a B-level prospect makes sense for both sides. Toronto is not competing this season2 and would do well to gain a player who is close to MLB-ready and might end up being better than Pillar (and controllable for more years). The Indians fill their center field gap with a fantastic fielder who is proven at the MLB level.
Billy Hamilton fits with similar reasoning given the Cincinnati Reds chances in a NL Central Division competing against the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Pirates. Even the Milwaukee Brewers farm system is getting huge praise. So, flipping one of their few big assets for a haul of prospects would serve them well. Hamilton is also better offensively than he is given credit, and he certainly would fill the stolen base void left by Rajai Davis.
Kevin Kiermaier is the least likely of these players to be moved due to the Tampa Bay Rays understanding that he is the best defensive center fielder in the game. Tampa Bay might demand Bradley Zimmer instead of Greg Allen as a center piece of a Kiermaier deal, and the Indians would have to consider it.
Affordable contract outfielders
Hey, who remembers Robbie Grossman? The Indians decided to move away from offense-first, no-defense outfielders and might have given up on Grossman a bit before they should have as a result. The Minnesota Twins were the beneficiary as his stick broke out in a big way. His defense, on the other hand, was less than ideal. Charlie Blackmon is a slightly better and more proven version of Grossman, but with only two years left of control.
The best of these players is attempting to wrangle Kole Calhoun from the Los Angeles Angels. He has been an adequate corner outfielder who can hit and has years of control at a reasonable cost. The issue with Calhoun is that he doesn’t solve the center field problem and would likely cost a similar amount to the defense-first players above, which would rob the Indians of assets to acquire a solution there.
Veteran outfielders on larger contracts
Andrew McCutchen is a year removed from a four-year stint contending for NL MVP Awards. He might have been playing injured in 2016, and he could well be on his way towards a bounce-back season. Then again, he’s on the wrong side of 30, only has two seasons left on his contract, and would cost more than any other non-Trout player listed in this article. The Lucroy deal might not even be enough to obtain him. If that is the price, then the Indians could gamble on a player that could solve their center field hole, while providing middle-of-the-order hitting.
Josh Reddick and Carlos Gonzalez seem as if they are always on the trade block. Reddick would cost more due to his years of control and cheaper price per season, but both could provide the 2017 Indians with some needed hitting from a corner outfield spot. Again, assets would be going out and a center fielder would not be coming in. If Greg Allen was part of the deal, then the best internal option would also be gone.
Andre Ethier is only listed to remind everyone to ignore those rumors.
Mike Trout
The Los Angeles Angels are not trading Mike Trout. Just like the Miami Marlins are not trading Marcel Ozuna. Just like the Los Angeles Dodgers are not trading Yasiel Puig. They are fun thought experiments to ponder What if but they are not happening. Sort of feel bad for Giancarlo Stanton though as he doesn’t get enough love in this category of fan daydreams.
Last Word
The 2017 Cleveland Indians are as set as a team can be in most areas of team construction. However, there is a glaring hole in the outfield — specifically center field. The Tribe could decide to patch it with platoons and young players as they did successfully in the outfield last year. There might be better options on the trade market though if the team is willing to gamble by trading away some of their prospects. The Kenny Lofton for David Justice and Marquis Grissom trade was 20 years ago. Is there a similar deal sitting out there for the Indians now?
- Unless the Indians are playing coy with Michael Brantley and he is actually fully healthy. Brantley taking MLB by storm in 2017 is the most fun scenario to think about, but it is not one we can bank on without more knowledge. [↩]
- You tell me about their pitching rotation, and I’ll tell you about the AL East and the absence of Encarnacion in that lineup. [↩]
52 Comments
$60m is a ton of money to be spending on a below average hitter who might become a below average fielder as he ages.
I suppose I would consider it there but I don’t think he’d be worth that discounted price on the backend of the deal.
I think the Yanks will be right there this season.