Gordon out, Pryor in: Top 10 Stories of 2016 — No. 8
December 19, 2016Is it too early to think about LeBron’s jersey retirement ceremony? While We’re Waiting
December 20, 2016I’m going to start this the same way I started my argument about the Cleveland Indians adding a center fielder…
The Indians made it to extra innings of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series with their current roster. The opportunity to add a player like Edwin Encarnacion is certainly exciting, but if it fails to materialize, this is still a team that won 94 games and almost the World Series. All that has happened since then is their two rivals in the division pressing the rebuild button. So if the Indians fail to make a large move this offseason, it can be disappointing, but shouldn’t change the fact that they should be very good in 2017.
That being said, Edwin Encarnacion represents a very unique opportunity for the Tribe.
The Player
I do not need to spend much time talking Tribe fans into Encarnacion. He has averaged 4.2 WAR over the last five seasons. He hit 42 home runs and 127 RBIs last season. He doesn’t strike out at an extreme rate like many power hitters, and knows how to take a walk. These are both traits that play up in the Indians’ contact-heavy lineup. He’s a great player. My voice gets a little higher just talking about him in a Tribe uniform.
The Need
Carlos Santana can play first base or designated hitter, but the Tribe is devoid of a partner for him. The Tribe’s farm system has injected the major league club with an influx of talent of late, with Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin, and Roberto Perez playing major roles during 2016. The farm system also looks to graduate outfielder Bradley Zimmer and utility man Yandy Diaz during the 2017 campaign. But the first base and designated hitter are areas which are lacking in Indians’ current farm system.
This need is exacerbated by the fact that Santana is in the last year of his contract. So the Indians not only need a first baseman or designated hitter this offseason, but will need two going into next season as well.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the Indians also have a need for right-handed hitters. We saw what adding Mike Napoli to the middle of the Tribe’s order did to balance out their lineup, and Encarnacion would be that on steroids. OK, not literally. Bad analogy. He’d be a great fit—how about that?
The Indians have to sign a player at this position this offseason, and the gap between Encarnacion and everyone else is very, very wide.
The Cost
Due to the number of players available at the position, as well as a sudden increase in the demand for relief pitchers (thanks to the Indians), Encarnacion’s cost has been depressed from what would be expected. He turned down a four-year, $80 million contract from the Blue Jays, and reports indicate he will likely have to settle for much less than that this offseason.
Let’s say Encarnacion could be had at three years, $65 million. Assuming each win-above-replacement player (WAR) is worth $8-9 million on the open market, this contract should still provide surplus value. Even if you assume that due to age (Encarnacion will turn 34 prior to the 2017 season) and other factors (change in park, etc.) Encarnacion averages 2.5-3 WAR per year over the length of the contract, a contract at this level would still provide market value.
More WFNY on Encarnacion: |
Due to his age and the depressed market, Encarnacion is also likely to sign for only three to four years. At only age 34, the age curve is certainly a concern, but similar players have sustained success late into their careers. This shorter contract mitigates the risk to the Indians. Often, it’s the years, not the annual salary that forces the Indians out of the market on 4-win free agents. This is an instance where the shorter contract helps the Indians get out from under the deal if it goes the way of Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn.
Of course, this doesn’t account for the draft pick attached to signing him. The Tribe would have to forfeit the 25th overall pick, a value Terry Pluto speculated at $10-20 million. This certainly adds to the cost, and a team in a market like Cleveland certainly needs to value those picks and prospects more than others, but with the lack of any real replacements in the pipelines, the Tribe is likely going to have to spend inefficiently on the free agent market or through trades to fill this hole.
The Payment
The Indians just added a minority owner. They made a deep run into the playoffs, hosting a number of home games which brought the team an influx of income. The team’s finances changed this offseason, and the way we expect to operate the team should also likely change to match. They have been clear in the past that they re-invest baseball earnings back into the team, so expecting an increase in spend after a year with increased revenue is not a “DOLANZ CHEAP” rant.
This is not to expect the team to deficit spend. They have market constraints, and a payroll that organically increased due to contract raises. But as the ghosts of Chris Johnson fall off the payroll and as Santana nears free agency, the future should bring some small payroll flexibility.
There are also ways to shed salary without a massive negative impact to the roster. Bryan Shaw has pitched 282 innings over the last four years, is in the final year of team control, and due an estimated $4.5 million in arbitration this season. Lonnie Chisenhall is a solid contributor, but can likely be replaced with Naquin, Zimmer, Diaz, or Abraham Almonte. He is due an estimated $4.1 million this upcoming season. By shedding those two salaries, the team can save $8.6 million for this upcoming season without sacrificing much in terms of production.
The Reasoning
The Indians operate in ways that are cautious and limit risk. When fans scream for trades and free agents, the front office must act more responsibly. I would argue this is a time when not taking advantage of market conditions would be the irresponsible thing to do. A player is available at a position of need at a discounted rate in a year when the Indians have an influx of revenue to pay that player. Sure, it’s a risk to tie-up future resources, but you also have to question if there will ever be an opportunity to use those resources in a more efficient way, or at a better time. Is future payroll flexibility an important asset three or four years from now when the rotation has aged out of their prime?
The time to strike is now. The Indians don’t need Encarnacion to compete for a World Series, but this is a unique opportunity to greatly improve those odds.
53 Comments
This did nothing to make me feel any better if they miss on Encarnacion (not that this was your intention!) but as much as it’s true to say that “this team without Encarnacion went to G7 of the WS” is true, how much of that was on the back of singular and unsustainable performances. We need this guy’s production.
I don’t disagree they could use some offense. Hoping Yandy / Zimmer can help offset any regressions. They’ve shown they’ll be aggressive at teh deadline if needed. But yeah – be nice to get another bat, even if it isn’t EE level.
Even with a big splurge I doubt they go beyond $54-57MM for 3yrs. Good as he is, he’d still be making a franchise record salary at age 37 on that deal.
I’ve wondered what if any effect this new minority investor will have on spending. When they scored their new cable deal they immediately (over)paid for Bourn and Swisher. But the Dolans have been seeking that investment influx for years, and who knows what plans they’ve had for it.
How can the prospect of getting EE not be exciting. It’s possible that Encarcion’s skills might take an immediate nosedive, and that Brantley never comes back the same guy. But it’s unlikely that both bad events occur, and if Brantley’s ok and Encarcion is 80% of his ’16 version, this offense would be just fine.
But he was suuuuch a d**k in the ALCS.
3/65 seems awfully high in this market. Turner and Fowler got 16 and 16.5MM AAV respectively. EE is 3 years older and provides no defensive value. I don’t see how he gets much if any more than they received. 3/52.5 with a 4th year option. Front load it slightly to offset some of the salary increases coming up with other players. 20/18/16 with 16 option. Total value of 4/70 if option exercized.
“who knows what plans they’ve had for it”
A new corn-dog suit for the hot-dog race
I agree 3/65 is steep. There was tweet at the end of the winter meetings saying no team had offered him 3/60, which seemed an awful lot like his agent throwing it out there.
I think the big issue they have to grapple with is year 3. 2018 has a cadre of future HOF FA’s. Nobody is going to be saying he’s worth 16.5 M vs 18 in year 3. He’s either going to be worth a lot, or not. And not is a disaster for them.
“All that has happened since then is their two rivals in the division pressing the rebuild button.”
Somehow you forgot that the Boston Red Sox also play in the American League, and the Indians will have to beat their juggernaut if they want to represent the AL in the World Series again. So I would say that the Tribe need to make a move, and missing out on big bats (again) is a bad way to start.
Could they make it incentive based?
that was a wonderful article with an excellent point.
but it’s a lot easier to have him worth not-a-lot while wearing a WS Ring 3 years from now as opposed to him not ever being on the team.
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Does the stick stick out the bottom or the top?
It wouldn’t bother us if he was our…wait I’m not finishing that. But you know what I mean.
I picture it pretty much like a Narwhal covered in corn-batter
I picture Ketchup squirting itself into a bowl for Corn Dog to squat into.
https://media.giphy.com/media/vPH4IIua3umxG/giphy.gif
I am worried about the assumption that Danny will be fine. There is something going on with him. Not sure if it is work-ethic, health or both, but I am expecting a huge regression from him next year.
Yeah I over-estimated the figure just to be safe. Sometimes when I try to balance my homerism I over-correct haha.
For sure – and we need to be ready to face them. But having an easy road to the playoffs is a nice starting point.
He’s the most terrifying guy on the roster for me and that’s saying something with Brantley and Gomes there.
Wife and I feel the same way. She is ready to trade him away now while his value is high, I am not quite there yet.
If you sign Encarnocion, you can have him this year, and then recoup a bonus pick in 2018 when we get one for Carlos Santana leaving…
Part of me wants to turn him into the next Andrew Miller in the bullpen. Imagine having Salazar, Miller, and Allen available and all can go 2 IP if needed. But just too much value as a starter to do that, yet.
I don’t like the thought of him in the BP personally. I don’t think he is suited to it, I have no rational explanation for this other than a belief it doesn’t suit his play style.
I know, I know. To paraphrase Harry Doyle: “Nothing changes your opinion of a man like a different uniform.”
I think you are right to be worried. Salazar’s arm problems last year are often a sign of elbow issues that require a future Tommy John surgery. He had one in the minors, and few pitchers make it back from a second.
His value is almost certainly not high after that injury.
Of course, we could have that pick either way, and now, with the new CBA, that pick we’d get back is worth a helluva lot less than the one we’d give up.
Its darn near impossible to try to build a roster to compete with a team over a five or seven game series.
How is worth less than the one we surrender
You don’t get the pick from the signing team, they just forfeit it, and you get one later in the draft, depending on how big the contract is and where you are on the revenue sharing scale.
Of course. And that’s why pitching is so expensive.
But you still need to have a look at potential playoff opponents, and make sure you can match up. The Tribe didn’t have enough bats this year, yet they still came within whiskers of winning it all. You can be sure there was a lot of overachieving, so I’d like to get some insurance in a proven power bat that still has a few swings left.
I watched the Yanks last year. Easy to imagine such a thing. It’s amazing to watch.
Question is: will it ever be even as high as it is now? The old cat/mouse injured-player trading game.
Is it a sandwich pick? Is it some pre-ordained end-of-the-6th-round type thing? Has it been decided yet?
“But you still need to have a look at potential playoff opponents, and make sure you can match up.”
You really don’t. You figure out the best way to get through 162 and give yourself a chance in the crapshoot. Usually the things that helped you through 162 help you in the crapshoot too. But it’s near impossible to guess what will be the difference maker in a short series, too many funny things can happen to predict with any sort of certainty – we just pitched homer-prone Tomlin in Fenway, and came out unscathed.
Throw money at EE if you think he brings back enough value to be worth the contract + draft pick loss, and, the big catch that never gets mentioned in any Indians offseason – if the guy actually wants to sign here and not just drive up the cost. Don’t throw money around trying to chase the big markets. You’ll never catch them anyway.
It has not been decided per new CBA rules. It could be a sandwich pick if Santana gets more than $50M (less likely) and we are revenue sharing recipients (very likely).
I feel pretty confident saying yes. Teams are worried his elbow could be about to blow. His value will go up when it’s healed, whether that’s after he proves he can pitch at the beginning of 2017, or somewhere in 2019 after he comes back from surgery.
But I’m certainly looking to add RH power since you know Boston is going to throw 2 lefties at you. That’s more what I am referring to. Even though you need to plan for 162 you’d be remiss if you didn’t also try to plan for October. EE checks off both boxes, which is why I’d like to sign him. But not for $60million.
EFe===
He’s had one Tommy John and puts tremendous strain on his arm. The underlying sentiment is WHEN, not IF, the elbow and ligament will blow up a 2nd time He’ll be having a major re-construction within 18 mos. It’s simple.
His arm is gonna blow and he is proven to be somebody that needs rest. He would never make it in the pen. Maybe for a year but nothign sustainable.
Yes, b/c you only need 1 team to trade for him. If he could sustain himself and miraculously make it through 2017.
I’m not going to argue against right handed hitting and power, as those are two weaker areas for this team, but again, playoff series are too fickle to think you can plan this.
And those combined lines for E5 are still a small sample.
1b/dh solved
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/12/20/indians-sign-chris-colabello-to-a-minor-league-deal/
I think 100 at bats is a decent sample when you’re talking about hitting against only 3 guys. He’s got 40 ABs against Price and Sale, so there’s an idea of what he can do against them. Decisions have been made over far less. Anyways, it’s at least enough to show me he can hit those guys.
Sample size doesnt work like that, you still need to hit generally these numbers
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/
To get some predictive value, whether its one pitcher, three, or all of them.
I feel I’m left playing devil’s advocate, because I’m for signing E5, hes a good hitter who will help us over 162. But that is 162 far more valuable, and the reason to sign him, than two games that may never happen in October.