The Confusing Lives of 2016 Cleveland Browns Fans
November 9, 2016Browns Friday Fumble – Baltimore – WFNY Podcast No. 553
November 10, 2016The Cleveland Indians received competent production from center field in 2016, but the defense was exposed as a great liability during the World Series. I have already suggested that Tyler Naquin is ticketed for a corner outfield logjam in 2017, and center field is one of the Indians few obvious needs. There are a couple of possible approaches the Indians can bring to addressing the position.
The first would be a platoon marriage between Abraham Almonte and a cheap stopgap. The second would be the acquisition of a non-platoon starter via free agency or trade. Here is a look at the potential targets to fulfill these two scenarios.
The Almonte scenario
Is he defensively competent in center field? Noisy defensive metrics say yes as he graded above average there in DRS and UZR/150. The sample is not enormous but it coincides with qualitative visual evidence; Almonte’s route running just looks better. Almonte is likely an average defender in center field which is a dynamic defensive upgrade over a near league worst defender. The marginal value gain defensively would substantive.
Almonte has a career wRC+ of 90 against RHP, with some power in that large frame. In his largest sample against RHP, 2015, Almonte posted a wRC+ of 110 against RHP. Almonte is close to a league average bat against RHP and is a league average defender in center field. He has value here and can play a useful portion of a platoon. To make this scenario work, the Indians must add a competent defender in center field who can hit left handed pitching.
Peter Bourjos:
Once an elite defender in center field, Bourjos is probably just an average defender there now but that remains an upgrade. Bourjos can also defend the corners and possesses base running value teams want out of a fourth outfielder.
Bourjos has a career wRC+ of 86 aginst LHP, so a slightly below average hitter against his platoon side. Like Almonte, Bourjos has a roughly league average K%, which fits the Indians lineup better than high K% power guys. This is because the Indians have a bunch of low K% types: Lindor, Ramirez, Santana, Ramirez, Chisenhall, Brantley, and to a lesser extent Kipnis. In lineups with high contact rates, adding a player with decent contact skills offers better lineup construction than boom or bust types. Similarly, in lineups with boom or bust types, adding contact types has less marginal value.
Bourjos certainly is not a compelling addition but is the type of player that the Indians could have for one year in the one to three million dollar range. If the Indians allocate assets upgrading elsewhere, this is potential route.
The free agent market is somewhat empty, Bourjos is the only player close to checking the two boxes necessary to complete a platoon with Almonte.
On the trade market, Michael Taylor of the Washington Nationals is an interesting option. An average defender in center field with a career wRC+ of 99 against RHP. Taylor would be a relatively small deal that could create a splendid pairing in center for the Indians.
The starting center fielder option
If one accepts the notion that Dexter Fowler is outside the Indians price range, the free agent market is thin and offers two just substantive options. The first, retaining Rajai Davis, a player moving into his late 30s who cratered to a wRC+ of less than 60 in the second half as he showed wear on an old body. The second is Jon Jay.
Jon Jay:
A two-year deal for Jay could range between $9-18 million. Jay looks to be a useful fit for the Indians. Jay was an average to above defender until 2016, where he was a tick below average. Still, an upgrade over Naquin according to defensive metrics. At 31, was the slide a reflection of age decline or a noisy one year sample. There really is no answer that can be offered without scouting and large error bars. If one assumes he can provide roughly average defensively, Jay is great fit for the Indians offense.
Jay has a career OPS of .737 and has a significantly above average K%. Meaning Jay makes a ton of contact. As discussed earlier, players with above average contact rates are really valuable in this Indians lineup and Jay offers a brilliant fit in that regard. Further, Jay handles both lefties and righties reasonably well, removing the need for constant platoon adjustments.
Kevin Pillar:
With Bautista and Encarnacion potentially headed for greener pastures, Mark Shapiro could easily make the transition to a rebuild in Toronto. In which case, Pillar is one of his most valuable assets, an elite defender who carries a quiet bat. Pillar also makes a lot of contact but without much contact authority, a trade for Pillar is centered on acquiring one of the two best center field defenders in baseball and riding defensive value between a strong pitching staff. This has a strong appeal, if you value up the middle defense. Impact defenders, Perez/Lindor/Pillar as middle of the diamond defenders could be an unmatched combination.
Acquisition cost could be significant. Bradley Zimmer and Michael Clevinger might not be enough to get the deal done. However, Antonetti and Shapiro’s relationship aids in making this deal more possible as conversations can move faster among friends at the winter meetings.
The center field market appears to be barren with the onus on the Antonetti and Chernoff to find a creative solution. Antonetti has shown a propensity to zig when commentators expect him to zag, and it remains a distinct possibility the Indians have their sights set on a player we could not anticipate. As the hot stove season progresses, hopefully a name or two can be added to this list.
9 Comments
Pillar is a personal favorite – would be so much fun having the middle defense be that dominant.
He’s the only option of the three presented here that I can actually get excited about. Man, CF is looking bleak.
Sign. Me. Up.
I’m actually OK w/ an Abe-Pete tag team out there
Dodgers might be willing to deal someone too (w/ all their upper level prospects needing a spot somewhere)
Please. All blow.
Isn’t Zimmer an option? Give some more ABs at AAA while we forge ahead with Almonte. See what happens. Maybe not the most desirable choice, but I think I like it better than the other realistic options.
If they can’t solve this problem in house, I like Pillar the best, and then Michael Taylor, though I think the former is out of Cleveland’s range. Washington likes Taylor too, as evidenced by their willingness to let him play while they already have 9 other guys who play center. I don’t think they let him go cheaply.
I’d rather find a younger guy with limited upside than an older guy on the downslope.
Colby Rasmus.
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