Buckeyes Roundball Roundup: Not a bad season opener against Navy
November 14, 2016Chill out, the Browns were supposed to suck this year
November 15, 2016The Cleveland Indians, as always, are poised to improve their roster using the flexibility which they have established over the course of the last several offseasons. Said flexibility, however, isn’t just limited to financials.
In Jose Ramirez, the Indians’ front office can leverage his position-based flexibility to improve an outfield spot or third base, allowing the Indians to search for the best market price. In the search for roster optimization, the Indians can continue their search for undervalued assets. In this way, veteran outfielder Matt Holliday is of significant interest.
While Holliday, like Mike Napoli before him, is aging into the wrong side of the curve with his 37th birthday fast approaching, the alarms of decline do not ring as loudly for the long-time Cardinal as they do for first-year Indian. While 2016 was a down year for Holliday, it remained productive as he continued to play left field and got reps at first base, tallying 20 home runs, 62 runs batted in, and an OPS of .783—just south of Napoli’s .800. But while Napoli’s home run output does not appear sustainable, Holliday provides some room for optimism.1
First, a potential cost breakdown.
Dave Cameron estimates Holliday’s potential contract at one year and $14 million. This compares to two years and $20 million for Napoli. These are fair estimates and Holliday may offer the Indians more limited financial commitment with higher upside.
Now, Steamer projections.2
Napoli: 1 WAR, OPS .754
Holliday: 1.8 WAR, OPS .823
Why are the projections so far apart? Holliday simply has a significantly better track record. Further, he fits in the Indians lineup far better than Napoli. While Napoli is striking out nearly 30 percent of the time, Holliday is significantly better at putting the ball in play—with authority. Holliday is likely to post a K-rate below 19 percent. This fits beautifully with the contact and on base skills of on-base players like Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, and Ramirez, all without really sacrificing any noticeable power drop-off.
Bill James noted what he thinks is the market hole in 2016 because of lineup value:
I am asked sometimes, “What is the undervalued skill in baseball today? What is the thing that teams don’t value properly, in 2016 major league baseball?” It’s this. It’s contact hitting. That’s what I believe.
The most noticeable issue for Matt Holliday in 2016: BABIP. Holliday’s career batting average on balls in play is .333, significantly above average because of his consistently elite contact authority. In 2016, Holliday’s BABIP dropped to just .253, a significant outlier in a sparkling career. BABIP can be explained as some mixture of skill and variance (luck). There is some randomness to the number but also speed and contact authority/direction are important inputs.
Can we find a root cause for a nearly 80-point BABIP swing? Not really.
The first part to look to is whether Holliday is avoiding soft contact and retaining significant hard contact. While Holliday posted a higher than career average soft percentage, it was still an outstanding number. Further, Holliday continued to post an elite Hard percentage numbers, showing the contact authority retained.
With contact direction, the big key is avoiding pull dominance, something Holliday has done consistently well his entire career including 2016. Indeed, Holliday even shows a knack for avoiding infield fly balls, a BABIP suppressor.
One explanation may be the weird ground ball spike but LD%/GB%/FB% can be particularly variant in a single season sample. There is no reason in terms of contact quality to expect that Holliday’s BABIP will not revert back to .290 or above, which with his contact frequency and power makes for a very good hitter.
For almost their entire careers Holliday has been a better offensive player than Mike Napoli, something that isn’t likely to change in their late thirties. Both can be had at relatively similar rates and yet Holliday offers far more offensive upside and fits beautifully in an Indians lineup with speed, contact and depth.
One of the non-statistical advantages Holliday offers is flexibility. Brantley needs to be protected which cannot easily be done with Napoli’s first base/DH body. Holliday could easily play 10-15 Games in left field offering rest spots for Brantley at DH. And for those looking more at intangibles, Holliday, like Napoli is respected inside the clubhouse for his professionalism and charisma.
If the #Indians don’t bring back Mike Napoli, Matt Holliday is a great fit as a RH bat/DH/some OF, some 1B – terrific clubhouse presence
— Casey Stern (@CaseyStern) November 10, 2016
Both in terms of lineup depth and roster flexibility Matt Holliday is an upgrade over other cost-friendly options. The marginal cost increase is likely limited for grabbing the player with more upside and less risk of collapse.
16 Comments
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Holliday would be such a great replacement for Napoli. He really needs to be taken out of the field at this point, but his bat is still a real asset.
Left-field? If we signed him are we to give credence to the theory that Brantley will be transitioned to 1B/DH?
I think Holliday transitions to 1B/DH with the capacity to spell Brantley for ~10 games.
Well done here Mike. I’m also a Holliday fan. I am worried that he’ll be popular on the weak FA market and his price will rise. He would be a nice add though.
Is this the weakest FA market in about a decade or am I nuts?
not for relievers. This is set to be the all-time greatest closer FA frenzy ever.
Every day is a Holliday
Could be.
Well played…
Just once, I’d like them to be a good fit for Yoenis Cespedes.
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Amen brother, amen.
Speaking of which, are the Dodgers going to be dealing their Cuban head case? Now that Tito is signed through 2020, he could use the challenge.
You’d think getting him out of left field would lessen his chances of injury, but he’s had hand tendonitis and a broken bone from a HBP and he’s 37. Still, at that approximate price on a one year deal yeah, a no-brainer. I’m happy to spend the Dolans playoff revenue from those extra 8 premium priced games.
Ability to value wins at a higher price will always make the bigger markets better fits for guys like Cespedes.