A Moment to Give Thanks – While We’re Waiting
November 22, 2016Cavs to wear orange throwback uniforms throughout 2016-17
November 22, 2016Jose Ramirez, like Andrew Miller is a player who cannot be incorrectly deployed. No matter where he is used, Ramirez brings contact, speed and at least roughly average defense. Opponent of capitalization and coherent tweets, Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman highlighted how Jose Ramirez’ flexibility could alter the offseason:
“He was so good at third base both offensively and defensively. But he’s a natural second baseman, and can play shortstop and the outfield,” Indians GM Mike Chernoff said. “It gives us a lot of options, and opens up a lot of possibilities.”
The premise is sound. Ramirez’ versatility is exceptional. Toying with production, however, comes with certain risks. Ramirez was a 4.8-WAR player in 2016 (All-Star-caliber) at the ripe age of 24. Though his flexibility is enjoyable, installing him next to Francisco Lindor for the next five years at third base is pretty enjoyable too. I detailed a case for Ramirez as the long term starter at third near the end of the regular season.
Setting aside a predisposition for Ramirez remaining as a full time patrolman of the hot corner, Ramirez the Swiss Army Knife could alter the Indians offseason but not as drastically as his versatility suggests. The reason being, the Indians have an MVP candidate at shortstop and a multi-time All-Star at second base. Ramirez can certainly spell these guys on occasion but Lindor and Jason Kipnis will play 150-plus games if health allows. This neutralizes some of Ramirez’ versatility when it comes to the Indians. This also ignores Ramirez himself occasionally needing a night off.
If Chernoff’s discussion of versatility means using Ramirez as the utility infielder, and adding an extra outfielder to use based on defense or matchups, then starting roughly 120 games at third base, it is plausible. However, Terry Francona parting with the Michael Martinez/Mike Aviles super utility horror show seems quite unlikely. Using Ramirez all over the field comes at a cost to his body which can ultimately alter his offensive production.
The value to Ramirez’s flexibility in hot stove season is somewhat different, allowing the Indians to pursue an outfielder or third baseman depending on which is more a cost efficient marketplace. Ramirez is not a right fielder, and watching him, likely not a center fielder without a lot of work. If you agree with this premise, the Indians may be displaying an underlying concern with Michael Brantley. Ramirez balancing his load as a third baseman and left fielder indicates the Indians may be taking a more progressive protection role with Brantley. The Indians may believe that Brantley is best served getting roughly 80 games at designated hitter and 50-to-60 in left field.
If the aforementioned postulation is correct, this places the Indians in the market for either a part-time or full-time third baseman.
First comes an in-house possibility. Yandy Diaz has spent the offseason playing center field south of the border. Diaz has above average discipline and contact skills which would fit very well in the Indians lineup. If Diaz can play third base and left field, similar to Jose Ramirez, they can flip both players back and forth to protect Brantley’s body based on matchup. Further allowing Ramirez to bounce around the infield and outfield while keeping good contact hitters in the lineup.
However, out of the gate, this arrangement appears unlikely.
Who are the free agent third basemen? The top of the list includes Los Angeles’ Justin Turner, Houston’s Luis Valbuena, Boston’s Aaron Hill, and Detroit’s Casey McGahee. Outside of Turner, this is an underwhelming list.
Turner will likely receive a commitment above $70 million, something the Indians have yet to do in the history of their franchise for a single player. Crossing him off seems sound.
Hill and McGahee don’t really move the needle as the Indians could expect similar production from Diaz at a lower cost.
This leaves Valbuena, a league-average third baseman, one who needs to be hidden against left handed pitching. When Valbuena is the most affordable option for the Indians, moving Jose Ramirez appears to more and more unlikely unless an unanticipated trade is on the table. Only seven third baseman were better than Ramirez in 2016, and of those seven, Turner is the only one who would appear to be available.
There are, however, two interesting third baseman in the twilight of their careers who may be available: Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria and Chicago’s Todd Frazier both have surfaced on the market to varying degrees. First, on Longoria, he is the face of the franchise in Tampa—a mainstay. However, that organization has time and again shown that nothing is sacred—anyone can be moved for the right cost. Further, rumors of rebuild are floating with the Rays shopping Chris Archer among others.1 There may be just a 15 percent change Longoria is on the market, but if it ever happened, now would be the time.
Last season’s offseason darling, Todd Frazier, is on a team headed for a utilitarian dismantling. The White Sox are on their way to a drastic rebuild, and Frazier is just another part who does not help them long term. While Frazier could not replicate his success in Cincinnati, he still is a league average or better player who handles himself well at third base. The acquisition cost would be low considering Frazier has just one year of control remaining and his financial cost is affordable.
Though the elevated left field wall in Cleveland may diminish Frazier’s output a little bit, many of his 40 home runs in 2016 would have had similar outcomes in Cleveland.
All this to say, Jose Ramirez’ versatility is valuable but may not create the offseason flexibility that many expect it would. The only option it appears to open up is that of acquiring a third baseman which is conditioned on the belief that Brantley is at best a part time outfielder.
Finally, the third base market is relatively barren with few realistic options available. Optimal asset usage appears to be staying in house with Diaz as a utility bench bat and allocating most resources to the defensive quagmire in center field. You could, after all, do much worse than having a 24-year-old who produced an .825 OPS manning the corner.
- This is where Kevin Kiermaier also comes in to play. [↩]
4 Comments
Mmmm hot stove Indians topics. Love it.
JRam is versatile, but only in positions where we don’t have a need, lol. He’s either going to be in the lineup for 150+ games next year, with the vast majority of them being at 3B, or he’ll be traded. (and I don’t really think that will happen because they would likely only do it for another very good player with a lot of cheap years left – the kind of deal that doesn’t usually get done) I imagine he could put in 10 games at SS, 10 games at 2B, and maybe 30 in LF, but that still leaves him on 3rd the vast majority of the time. I think Yandy Diaz playing OF tells you all you need to know about the Indians plans at 3rd in 2016.
IMO, what Ramirez’s versatility really gives the Indians is the option of flipping Kipnis for something of significant value in 2018 or 2019 while there are still years left on his contract. Maybe he’ll age well and it won’t happen, but that could be valuable flexibility.
Isn’t Diaz a natural 2nd baseman? I would leave JRam alone at third and think about moving Kipnis to the outfield if Diaz has a legit bat. Kipnis is average at best turning the DP.
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