The Nike State University: While We’re Waiting
November 28, 2016Buckeyes land at No. 2 (once again) in both AP, Coaches polls
November 28, 2016Today, we are fans of the Green Bay Packers. In losing to the New York Giants on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns fell to 0-12 on the season, moving one step closer to the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. While the Miami Dolphins did Cleveland little in the way of favors in beating San Francisco—the inverse would have given the Browns a one-game cushion—it is now up to the Green Bay Packers to throw the Dawg Pound a bone.
As it stands, the Browns, as owners of the Philadelphia Eagles’ first-round pick this coming spring, stand to select somewhere in the mid-teens. If the season were to have ended today, this pick would be roughly No. 18. If Deshaun Watson is your guy, and you think he’ll fall to No. 18, then that’s fantastic news for all parties (save for, arguably, Watson). A loss by the Eagles on Monday night football, however, drops them below .500 on the season at 5-6. Finishing their season with games against AFC North-leading Baltimore, and NFC East brethren Washington, New York and Dallas, and fans suddenly have a team that came out firing on all cylinders early, but could easily be at the bottom of their conference when the dust settles.1.
More importantly, a loss on Monday night, and a 5-6 record, would currently put the Eagles behind only the Browns, Niners, Jaguars, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Rams, Cardinals and Panthers. Though then tied with a host of other teams (like Green Bay), we’re looking at a substantial jump from No. 18 to a pick that could be as high as No. 10—this all without the subsequent losses we’ve already established will happen above. A win, however, means the Eagles would go to 6-5, the same record as the abovementioned Ravens, the AFC South-leading Texans, and quietly pretty good Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meaning that No. 18 pick could slowly creep into the 20s if things don’t unfold as required.
The Packers have been some of the biggest frauds this side of Indianapolis throughout all of 2016. If anything, Cleveland fans are used to rooting for teams which should be much, much better than they truly are. Tonight, ditch that oranger orange and slap on a cheese head. It’s the least you can do.
LOSER: Josh McCown
Save the nonsense about throwing for 322 yards with a touchdown coupled with the faux belief, ushered by the FOX commentary crew, that the team could come back and win their first game of the season. When under pressure, McCown completed just 38.5 percent of his throws, recording just 45 yards. Everything else he was able to do came in dump-offs, one giant heave to Terrelle Pyror, or when the Giants simply let him pick his spots.
Settling for field goals after being inside of the 10-yard-line twice was bad enough. Given how well the defense played early on, keeping the score low and the Browns within a touchdown, not being able to capitalize after the 54-yarder to Terrelle Pryor was a crushing blow.
WINNER: Hue Jackson
The guy is trying. Managing a talent gap cannot be easy, so mixing in bizarre formations with things like a halfback pass from Duke Johnson get the thumbs up here even if they didn’t bear fruit.
Did you see his press conference following the game? He was later than usual, likely irking some deadline-driven media members, but he was late because he was speaking with the front office as he does following every other game.
The Browns will practice Monday and Tuesday before they’re sent off to enjoy their bye week. As we said earlier, giving this team a Week 13 bye may have been the worst thing to happen to such a young, overmatched group.
“They need to get a little break,” said Jackson. “We need to do some self-scouting of ourselves and get a break. We have four games left, the last quarter of our season. We have to find a way to put together a win.”
When asked if the break will be good for him as well, allowing him to clear his mind, Jackson said “I am going to be very honest with all of you, I don’t know how to do that yet because being 0-12 is probably the hardest thing ever.”
LOSER: Joe Haden
Joe Haden has been in the news much over the last few weeks as he and the team both believe he has the potential to be one of the best cornerbacks in football, but Jackson has been quick to remind him that he’s been playing at an average level this season. That average level was on display again Sunday as Odell Beckham Jr. hauled in six receptions on 11 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns, doing most of his damage in the open field after the ball was caught.
Haden was frequently a step behind and no longer possesses the closing speed to keep up with a player like Beckham. I don’t know what the answer is for Joe, but after last season’s injury-riddled campagin, the Excuse Train is long gone.
WINNER: Brien Boddy-Calhoun
The touchdown catch by Dwayne Harris in the corner of the end zone was perfectly thrown and perfectly caught. The rest of BBC’s day was beyond solid as he was targeted seven times and gave up just two receptions for 37 yards (including said TD). For an added bonus, the kid added two tackles and two stops, helping out the run defense. Given what Haden did (or didn’t do) above, this was a welcomed sight.
LOSER: Alvin Bailey
Thrust into the offensive line after John Greco sustained a foot injury, Bailey was destroyed throughout the contest. He was responsible for a brutal false start penalty in the second half, and was solely to blame for Jason Pierre-Paul essentially beating McCown to the backfield on the strip-turned-touchdown.
Watch it all unfold here:
The left side of the line (also featuring an injury replacement in Spencer Drango) was actually pretty solid, all things considered. The right side, however, as atrocious. You could argue that our expectations of an injury replacement should not be too high, but you’d be yelling at clouds. This is the NFL.
WINNER: Terrelle Pryor
Pryor does things that remind you why he was largely out of the league a year ago, but quickly makes you forget them when you realize that he’s a 6-foot-6-inch pass-catching option who can toast opposing defensive backs in the open field.
All in all, the kid caught six balls for 131 yards. He had one drive-killing drop early on, but was visibly frustrated after the Jason Pierre-Paul play as his 50-yard reception set the team up beautifully while they were down just one score late in the game, so you definitely can’t knock the kid for caring.
WINNER: Corey Coleman
The kid is still a work in progress, but this route was a thing of beauty.
https://t.co/Rw66nzPKIC
WINNER: Britton Colquitt
After Odell Beckham Jr. tried to celebrate a punt return, it was Colquitt who purposely bumped in to the receiver to remind him that there was a flag on the play and that the Giants’ return man was merely wasting his time. OBJ didn’t take too kindly to the gesture, making it that much better for Browns fans.
- A win tonight puts them a half-game back of Washington [↩]
35 Comments
LOSER: Haden. No way the Moneyballers are going to pay him when his contract increases to $18m next season. Bye bye Joe.
WINNER: Pryor. His asking price keeps going up every week. The Moneyballers should have signed him to an extension a while ago. Bye bye Pryor.
WINNER: Browns first 1st-round pick. Still #1!
Agreed on all of them. A few of my own additions.
WINNERS: Ogbah, Nassib, and Shelton. These guys look like the makings of a decent defensive line. They largely bottled up the Giant’s running game, even if it isn’t a great one.
LOSERS: The Browns backfield is so bad. BBC (he needs a much better set of initials) is the only bright point. Who is playing safety anymore? Haden is looking super average this year.
WINNER/LOSER: TPeezy. The Browns need to give this guy every penny he asks for. But you can visibly see the frustration getting to him. I don’t blame him, but it’s going to be a rough 4 games until the season ends.
LOSER: Collins, Sr. I think he made like one play this weekend? Correct me if I’m wrong. Whatever, he’s going to leave anyway, and he probably should. Like Mack, I think this is one FA the Browns don’t have a chance to resign.
WINNERS : Kirksey , Boddy-Calhoun , Shelton , Pryor , J.Thomas & Hue
LOSERS : Haden & Bailey
(Repost)
**** 2016 WFNY PREDICTION GAME ****
The Defense… is IMPROVING!!
Five more down, eighteen to go. Two new players join RGB
in my pantsON THE VERGE. Tigersbrowns2, Maxfnmloans, CBEverett (And from Cleveland.com Mary Kay Cabot, and Scott Patsko), thanks for playing. Try again next year.See who’s safe, ON THE VERGE…, and who lost here:
http://numutango.blogspot.com/
See all of the entries here:
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2016/09/10-bold-predictions-for-the-2016-browns-season/
i will be sitting with Chritian Kirksey’s mom at the Pro-Bowl … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/004cd1e5950d7747fb0c118e77628efbe42107419aadc9f8a4e8603f9d515e5f.jpg
Winner: Hue, based on the post-game presser. Hate “won the presser” talk but just watch it and your heart will go out to him. Yes, he signed up for this and is paid handsomely. But he’s never seen a roster so eviscerated – none of us have – and for no discernible reason. And none of tricks he’s accumulated in 25 years work. The players are trying but are horrible, or washed up, or thrown out long before sensible. Watch him and you’ll hear: I take your bullets at this presser because I’m paid to do it. And it can’t continue next year because I’ll have better players. And I’ll have better players because I might just vaporize or stroke out if the roster stays at this level. And please stop asking me to name an example of a rising rookie or I’ll weep in front of all of you.
Winner: Philadelphia 76ers. I toggled back and forth with the Cavs game to watch what should have been a parallel scenario: a better and more experienced team needing hard effort to hold off future stars (Okafur, Embiid) with superior talent and experience. Except who are the clear future stars on the Browns? Maybe Pryor, if he’s here. The rest, if NFL viable at all, are ok pieces parts, the football equivalent of Ilyasova and Gerald Henderson and Stauskas. No Okafurs, Embiids, no Ben Simmons. The HBT simply cannot complete the next draft without landing obvious NFL impact players. If it happens again these newbies will have blown more high picks in two years than most GMs get in two separate career jobs.
LOSER: The poor chump that gets drafted #1
hi HARV … the HBT has a long way to go to outdo Farmer as far as failing in the draft.
Yeah, Haden had 2014 but at this point seems 2 full steps below “shut down.” Not doubting he’s dinged up but between dings and suspensions that’s been the case nearly every season of his career. He’s giving effort worthy of contract year (which in essence it is for him) but he is not very effective against #1 receivers. On the other hand, while Boddy-Calhoun is doing well against #2 receivers, no one should imagine he would have better controlled Beckham.
So, is it too early to set odds on the HBT trading out of the #1 spot?
RE: Drafting stars.
It’s possible (although not probable) that the Browns actually have some on defense. But the players around them are so bad, that you can’t really tell how star-y they actually are. In the same way that Krueger looked good because he was on the Ravens stacked defense, maybe some of the young Browns look worse because they’re on the Browns.
For example, Shelton is playing really well by any metric, and Nassib gets good pressure despite how bad this defense is as a whole.
Based on their previous treatment of veterans not named Thomas, he’s gone next season.
don’t want to keep repeating myself but I believe that when you draft impact players you usually know right away, because even when they screw up you see physical dominance. Nassib has disappeared (similar to Mingo when film showed he had nothing but speed to the outside), Ogbah looks like a guy, Coleman looks like he will be a guy, Shon Coleman can’t get snaps over the dreck in front of him. Etc. Yes, it’s possible that the 2016 draft will one day look mediocre.
Not sure what to make of your 76ers comment. They’re into, what, year four of a rebuild? Seems like if you want it to be a fair comparison, you’d have to wait until we get to the 2019 Browns. 76ers have also gotten worse, at least in the W/L column, every year since like 2011. Now, they’re on pace to top their 10 wins from last year and maybe the 18 and 19 from the two years before that. They’ve been the NBA equivalent of an NFL 0-2 win team over the past three or four years.I don’t see how that’s a winner, especially compared to what’s still the very early stages of the Browns rebuild.
Or, as I put it during the previews, it’s such a shame when a promising football career, with all the dreams of their family and hometown, is cut short … by that moment when their pen touches paper to sign with the Browns.
Winner: Taylor Gabriel. I was reminded by three different stations/shows that the Browns gave up on this guy. Now all he does is catch TD’s in Atlanta.
Winner: TP. Still making plays and adding more 0’s to his next contract.
Loser: Collins. He does add pass rush to the D which wasn’t there before he arrived but he really hasn’t been having his name called much unless it is for a missed tackle or a penalty.
Loser: HBT. I’m still mad that Sashi Brown said that they don’t care about wins and losses this year. Then why should we worry about paying for season tickets? I just hope Moneyball and Friends hit on the draft this year and make a dent in free agency.
i guess it depends on how you define “impact players” … is a rookie an impact player if he starts right away ?? does he have to make the pro-bowl in his rookie year ??
besides Zeke Elliott & maybe Dak Prescott , name me 1 other impact rookie on any other team … rookies usually aren’t counted on to start unless they are exceptional … like Elliott. Prescott ended-up starting due to injury.
the Browns are having to start rookies , too many rookies , out of necessity … usually if a rookie starts on someone like the Patriots , they have a decent team around them & aren’t expected to make an impact , but just to do their jobs.
Taylor Gabriel … who says Ray Farmer doesn’t know WR talent ?? … heck , Gabriel was an undrafted rookie free-agent , so everyone passed on him.
so you’re objecting that it’s not an precise comparison across the board. I agree; wasn’t intended to be. And never mentioned wins as a barometer, as a matter of fact a losing record was the commonality. The point, again: in a successful rebuild, high draft picks are parlayed into impact players. Browns had #2 overall this year, and it appears they opted for a philosophy “quantity of lower picks lessens our margin of error.” Philly has had 4 top picks and have appeared to strike gold with 3 of them (whiffed on Noel). And they look, to me, like they have a nucleus of a formidable team.
Wins? Who cares about wins, when you can plaster Berea HQ with all sorts of new charts, and graphs, and matrices, and other fancy analytic devices.
Wins? Who are you kidding. It’s all about the metrics, baby!
Publishing a new geekometric stat > winning games.
And cap space. We can’t forget about the cap space.
ok, don’t have have time to scour league rosters but let’s go with what’s in my head: Browns rookie history, and physical dominance that was apparent immediately, even when not picked at the tippy top. Speed list, not all-inclusive. We knew right away with:
1980s: Clay, Ozzie, Mack, Byner, Hanford, Don Rogers, USFL acquisitions Minnie, Dan Fike, Mike Johnson, supp pick Bernie (by end of his rookie year, we all knew), Eric Metcalf.
1990s: Eric Turner, Steve Everitt
2000s: Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Winslow (pre-injury),
20-teens: Bitonio
I said it’s “usually” obvious right away, didn’t say always. Not sure why that point should be in dispute, as opposed to making us squirm at the thought that we might have another incompetent FO.
Michael Thomas has 65 catches for 800 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Joey Bosa has 4.5 sacks, recorded 7 tackles yesterday; 38 total pressures in his first seven games in the NFL.
Jack Conklin looks like an insanely good right tackle.
Re Gabriel, If the Browns only wanted larger receivers that’s fine, but if keeping a jitterbugging smurf, don’t get why they opted for the older, concussed version of the same player (Andrew Hawkins).
Hue and Hawk go back to Cincy. Would assume that played a role.
yep, forgot about that.
hi SCOTT … there are a few others starting & making an impact : C r.kelly , OL r.stanley , CB a.burns among a few others … so , what does this say about the rest of the 1st round picks … that they won’t be impact players ??
i remember recently looking back at ALL of our drafts … the Browns actually got Ozzie & Clay in the same draft (1978 ?) , pretty good … it is amazing to me on just how many drafts we whiffed on 1st round picks.
anyone remember these 1st round picks (since 1980) ?? : LB m.junkin , LB c.charlton , LB c.powell , RB w.green , LB wimbley , t, richardson , quinn , mingo , p.taylor & everyone remembers our current whiffs with gilbert , manziel & erving.
That’s not what you asked above when you said “name me 1 other impact rookie on any other team.”
I think this was the main reason. Plus he’s a veteran who has never shown signs of being a “bad” guy.
Hmmm… I don’t know. It’s not that it’s an imprecise comparison. It’s that I don’t think it really supports your own argument.If you’ve struck gold three times in the NBA draft shouldn’t your win percentage be higher than .235? Shouldn’t you not be in last place? If that’s what hitting on three top picks gets you, I’d say it’s an argument AGAINST focusing on getting impact players and FOR improving the total talent level of the roster.
I love this comment. We’ve learned this so much time and again. You can have hope in a guy like Mingo if he shows it some of the time but not all of the time. He didn’t develop for the Browns, but I saw some flashes in his rookie year. Didn’t pan out. Fine. Trying to pretend that Cam Erving is ever going to be an NFL player seems pretty dumb at this point. I know it’s early, but he doesn’t need more time to gain consistency. He’s not an NFL player. We will find these things out quickly by seeing proof not by hoping.
hi RGB … it’s never too early. i don’t see that “gotta have” guy that’s going to make anybody want to move to #1 overall.
i’m for staying at #1 & taking m.garrett.
… which was leading to my point of what about all the other 1st rounders you or i didn’t mention ?? does this mean they won’t be impact players ?
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The road to mediocrity is clear enough though. You can have a defense and no offense and be the Eagles or you can have an offense and no defense and be the Skins. Either can be accomplished in one offseason of work and sensible FA efforts, and a couple of drafts. If you have a QB you focus on offense and if you don’t, defense. To have both sides of the ball good at the same time is always hard though, even for good organizations. Which is why every team in the NFL except the Patriots wax and wane. The Browns may look it, but they’re not that far from mediocrity. Indeed the defense showed clear signs of progress against the Giants. Boddy-Calhoun looks very promising, and so do Ogbah, Shelton and Nassib.
You can make this a top half D next year with a couple of draft picks and maybe one or two FA signings that are average to good. The offense is the big problem. It needs to make fewer mistakes and to not turn the ball over in moronic ways. Something like what the Titoons have been doing on offense this year might be the ticket next year while the improved defense gels. Never mind if it’s working, let’s just run the ball endlessly and focus on ball security.