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October 6, 2016All Boston sports are loathesome to a Cleveland fan. The New England Patriots are led by an ex-Browns head coach and a Michigan quarterback whom promise to punish the Browns on the scoreboard this Sunday. The Boston Celtics helped keep the Cleveland Cavaliers out of the NBA Finals in LeBron James’ first go-round by giving him the impetus to form his own Big Three in Miami. But, for all Boston sport teams, the Red Sox are the most loathesome.
The Boston Red Sox were the first big market team to embrace the analytical revolution that the Cleveland Indians started and used it to end their World Series championship drought. Then, they won two more. While the Indians embraced progressive player development to overhaul their entire minor league system to create a pipeline of young players, the Red Sox go out and take on the salaries of players such as Rick Porcello and David Price. And, it is best to not mention how the 1999 and 2007 postseason series ended for our beloved Tribe.
It is prudent to understand how the Indians can defeat their nemesis Red Sox in this upcoming ALDS. WFNY’s Mike Hattery did an excellent job outlining how the Indians lineup is expected to take on Boston starter Rick Porcello. Today the look turns to Trevor Bauer and his most crucial matchups.
The Red Sox have a lineup filled with some feared hitters, but none more so than David Ortiz and Mookie Betts. That one is left-handed and the other right-handed allows an easy transition should anyone be so bold to utilize this information for the rest of their lineup.1
I hate it when they call him Big Papi
One of the great components of Bauer’s approach is he is unafraid to bust hitters inside (right side of heat map for left-handed hitter). One of the reasons for his lack of fear is that southpaw hitters have not been able to punish him for taking control of the inside portion of the plate. The ISO against Bauer there have garnered exactly one extra base hit on 37 batted balls. The exit velocity from this contact has also been among the most meager against him, which allows for easier defensive plays.
Flip that over to David Ortiz and it can be seen his power is distributed well, but there is a definitive concentration on the inside part of the strike zone. We have an exciting matchup right away as pitcher and hitter square off strength for strength.
Left-handed hitters on the whole are hitting .239/.305/.385 (86 sOPS+) against Bauer with eight home runs and a 96:29 strikeout to walk ratio. More specifically, Bauer has used his fourseam fastball and curveball (among the best in MLB) to dominate against these southpaw hitters. But, his sinker has been rocked. Bauer might want to go back to relying on that fourseam more when Big Papi steps into the batters box.
Ortiz has not minded facing right-handed pitchers in 2016. His retirement tour has included a nifty .315/.407/.665 (186 sOPS+) line against such pitchers though many were not nearly the pedigree of Bauer.
Don’t Betts against Bauer
Switch over to a right-handed hitter such as Betts, and it is seen that Bauer is still willing and able to bust a hitter inside. The exit velocity on batted balls from the inside portion of the plate are again meager compared to pitches thrown elsewhere. However, in terms of sheer numbers of pitches, the outside portion of the plate is more utilized.
Betts though might wait on some inside pitches as he feasts on anything up and in. In fact, Bauer has his own troublesome spot when he elevates pitches on the inside portion of the plate. Against Betts, those are mistakes that will get crushed. Bauer’s ability to keep the ball low when he goes inside and getting Betts to potentially chase higher ones to the outside of the zone could be the plan of attack to limit one of the top AL MVP candidates.
Bauer has allowed slightly more success against right handers as they have a .257/.333/.399 line with 12 home runs and a 72:41 strikeout to walk ratio. Oddly, he uses a similar ratio of sinker (two-seam fastball) to four-seamer approach as he does to left-handed hitters, but he finds much more success with the sinker against the righties. The four-seam fastball is the one that is getting destroyed by hitters from this side of the plate. He also has had more issues with his changeup, but his curveball is still Old Reliable.
Betts will assuredly be hoping Bauer attacks him with a high four-seam fastball and might wait on one. His .331/.377/.540 (146 sOPS+) line against right handers shows he is not worried about facing a same-handed guy on the mound. Perhaps because of his love for the inside meatballs (or the fact he’s faced far more right-handed pitchers), 23 of his 31 home runs have come against righties.
Last Word
Baseball is a strange game and the postseason is a fickle master. The small sample sizes coupled with the intensity and pressure of the moment is guaranteed to create some black swan events. The plate appearances that matter most might not be the ones highlighted here. Still, these are the matchups that will cause the slowest breath and the fastest heart rate when the leverage is high. Here’s hoping Bauer can end those potential momentum-shifting points in the game with outs. If he can, then the odds of the Cleveland Indians being the team to end the career of David Ortiz are good. Here we go, Indians, here we go. Clap. Clap.
- One might notice I do not mention previous matchups between these hitters and Bauer. Any such sample size will be ridiculously small and therefore mostly meaningless. October has similar issues, but we here are trying to project the most likely cause of success and failure. If Bauer misses his spot with a fastball over the meat of the plate and strikes one of these guys out, then we promise not to complain. Also note: all Bauer numbers are June 2 onward as he not only became a starting pitcher as opposed to reliever, but he also completely changed his approach on how he was attacking hitters. [↩]
11 Comments
I wouldn’t have minded a bit to have rostered Crockett to face Ortiz. I’m not sure what exactly the point is of all four of Clevinger, Anderson, McAllister, and Manship.
You cant be afraid to bust Papi under the hands.
Tickets in hand, packing up in a couple hours to head down to the Bauer Outage.
PS: Indians REALLY dropped the ball with #RockRed against the RED Sox. Idiocy to clear the shelves of slow moving merch.
Would have gone with Garner, Crockett, and Merritt over Manship, Anderson, and Gimenez. But, here’s hoping we don’t need to worry about the last 3 on the 25-man.
Aren’t these [insert color here]outs usually bright colors if not black? The brighter colors stand out better, and the Indians’ red works a lot better at that than their blue.
Or, was it clever to hide the amount of Boston fans that are in town for Game 1, 2, and the Sunday Pats game?
Meh on Garner and Merritt. They don’t move the needle for me. I also just may be overrating Crockett.
I’m also a bit worried that having all three catchers/Martinez limits our ability to pinch-hit/steal.
@mgbode:disqus & @disqus_JRRay56mZp:disqus
All I can say for certain is last time we rocked red in the post-season it didn’t go well.
https://mattdaleyblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/cleveland-indians-fans-red-face-2_20131003065608201_660_320.jpg
I think having all three catchers improves our ability to pinch-hit. In theory we could pinch someone for Gomes in the 3rd, then put in Perez as a defensive sub, then pinch hit someone for him in the sixth and sub in Gimenez defensively.
Pinch-running… yeah. No bueno.
Yeah, those are the decisions I make, but it’s not like I’m overtly critical because the Indians picked who they did. Cody struggled in his last two appearances, but they obviously valued his velocity over the other choices with Boston’s power hitters.
I don’t expect Rajai to start tonight, but do expect him to come in later. Pinch-running means M-Mart mostly w/ being able to use his glove in the field after it. Not ideal by any means.
have fun , HOP … and good luck !