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October 6, 2016Cleveland’s Hamiltonian Challenge
October 6, 2016Ed. Note: This article was originally published on March 22. Given Bauer’s season-long arc which has traversed from bullpen arm to starting pitcher in Game 1 of the ALDS, WFNY thought it was worth. We’ve republished the piece in its original form. Do enjoy.
Will the 2016 season for the Cleveland Indians come down to one player? Not likely. But if one kid is going to push them over the top, it’s likely to be Trevor Bauer.
Of all the players on the Cleveland Indians over the last three seasons, no one player has captivated this author more than Trevor Bauer.
Take all of these items in to play: He’s from North Hollywood, and plays baseball in Cleveland; he’s a professional athlete who builds drones in his spare time; though he attended UCLA, he loves the Duke Blue Devils and is not ashamed to admit it; he throws the ball roughly 60 feet during games yet across the entire outfield during his warm-up sessions; he plays a team game that promotes flash yet prefers to spend most of his time alone, shooting pool, embracing his shyness; he grew up watching Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder of the 100-win Oakland A’s, yet his favorite pitcher through that time was Barry Zito; and he rarely gets to bat, but when he does, he makes the most out of his time at the plate by imitating the batting stances of his fellow teammates.
If I were to rank the entire final 40-man roster for the 2015 Cleveland Indians in order by players with whom I would like to have a few beers, Trevor Bauer would top the list—and it would not be close. He’s eccentric. He’s intelligent. He refuses to pander to dumb post-game questions. No, seriously. This is a legit interaction with a reporter following the Indians’ 4-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last season:
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Reporter: Your perspective on loss?
Bauer: The team lost.
Reporter: Can you elaborate?
Bauer: We lost 4-1.
If there were a mic, Bauer could have dropped it at the feet of the horde right then and there. Unfortunately, the only microphones nearby belonged to others, and as succinct as Bauer may be, he certainly was not about to damage the goods of others. In today’s age, these types of interactions get blown up, cast in a negative light, and ignore that players like Steve Carlton and Bob Gibson were also less-than-ideal when it came to engaging with the media. The difference is, of course, that Bauer was drafted as a wunderkind and has shown ample amounts of talent and when things spiral out of control—as they’re wont to do with a kid who has so many pitches in his arsenal—the negative press can outweigh the performance.
And if I were to rank the entire final 40-man roster for the 2015 Cleveland Indians in order by players which I feel would have the largest impact on where the 2016 version finishes come fall, Bauer would once again top the list, slotting in at the back end of an otherwise stellar rotation, pitching on a team where arms and gloves are expected to make up for a potential lack of bats.
Referring to certain players as X-Factors can be a fruitless endeavor. On a 25-man roster that endures injuries and transactions—both structurally and schedule-based—over the course of a 162-game season, it could be argued that every player is an X-Factor. We saw what happened two seasons ago when Corey Kluber produced a Cy Young campaign and Michael Brantley finished third in MVP voting, but Jason Kipnis produced a modest 0.7 wins. We saw again, in 2015, when Kipnis got back on track with an All-Star season but Yan Gomes and Brandon Moss combined for 0.1 wins. Point is: When the Cleveland Indians are constructed the way they are, there is no safety net—all players have to contribute if they’re going to play baseball in to October. With Bauer, however, we find ourselves with the one player who could swing the Tribe’s pendulum the furthest in either direction.
While injuries or setbacks to either Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, or Danny Salazar would have a substantial impact on the future of the Indians, it’s Bauer who is one of the toughest to nail down. In 2015, he had a modest record (11-12) with a modest ERA/FIP combination of 4.55 and 4.33, respectively, fanning 8.7 batters per nine innings while simultaneously leading the league in walks. If you separate his games by wins and losses, however, fewer arms on the Tribe’s staff come with such varying degrees of execution.
Split | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | OPS | BAbip | WHIP | tOPS+ |
in Wins | 11 | 297 | 17 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 75 | 0.531 | 0.203 | 0.983 | 50 |
in Losses | 12 | 262 | 59 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 57 | 1.016 | 0.391 | 1.889 | 182 |
You should all be thanking Trevor. Having his decision count split nearly down the middle allows us to compare without too much in the way of extra math. What we can find, however, is when Bauer is on, he is on. Missing a ton of bats regardless of the outing1, the difference comes in the way of what happens when the batter connects his piece of rounded lumber with the ball being hurled his way. That Bauer allows more hits in his losses (thus creating a higher WHIP) is little in the way of a surprise, but it’s the type of hits—doubles and home runs, specifically—that can torpedo his afternoon.
Check out that BAbip number again and realize that home runs are not even technically “in play.” Had this metric take in to account those balls hit north of 400 feet, it would be even higher, creating an even larger gap between the two. And the cherry on top is that tOPS+ differential2.
To compare Bauer’s on-and-off switch to some of his teammates, Corey Kluber’s tOPS+ differential3 in 2015 was 118. Carlos Carrasco’s was 120. Even Danny Salazar, a pitcher who has had his own bouts of wildness and gives up the occasional home run, had a net differential of 82. That 50 in the win row is damn good—almost Corey Kluber good. It’s just that 182, however, is the kind of stuff that makes Tito Francona grab a fist full of gum, stuff it all in his mouth at one time, and head out to the mound in the third or fourth inning to signal in the long reliever du jour.
There is no doubt that the Indians have a plethora of right-handed guys who will be able to cycle in at the back end of the rotation in 2016. Cody Anderson’s fastball is being compared to that of Matt Harvey. Josh Tomlin looked really, really good toward the end of last season. Then there are Michael Clevinger, whom we’ve discussed, and lefty T.J. House, who was optioned to Columbus earlier this week. All of these players have the potential to be solid, back-end arms to take on similar back-end arms of other teams. Even Anderson, who was nearly unhittable immediately following his promotion, wasn’t as dominant as Bauer (a tOPS+ of 71). The depth here is an excess of riches. And sure: These game-manager types may be able to squeeze out a few wins as the Indians bats pick on the opposition on a given afternoon. Expecting players suited for the fifth spot to give you third- or fourth-man execution throughout an entire season, however, is a gigantic roll of the dice.
After spending the last two seasons working on his control, the team has asked Bauer to start focusing on velocity, specifically his fastball which was down to about 93 miles per hour last season. Going through velocity training much of the offseason, the engineer-by-education said he “just wants to throw hard.” Unhappy with his curveball in a recent outing against the Seattle Mariners, and giving up two solo home runs in two innings earlier this month in a game against the White Sox, it’s obvious that the kid is still a work in progress. The good news, however, is that he followed up these outings with a two-strikeout, two-walk, one-run outing (4 IP) against the Dodgers in which he focused almost primarily on his cut fastball and curveball.
It may be oversimplifying the complex, but Bauer’s success in 2016 will come down to tightening up his variation. If it means that both sides of Bauer need to give a little, this team should be able to win games without a starting pitcher being perfect. Tightening things in on the flip side of that coin, however, will be imperative. For a team that is going to obtain most of their victories in low-scoring, defense-laden contests, having a starting pitcher give up nearly two hits per inning is as close to a death knell as they come.
But what about all the negativity that he brings on himself with his occasional rough outings and even rougher post-game thoughts? It doesn’t sound like these will be going anywhere any time soon—and that’s OK.
“If you answer people in a way that’s either combative or short, you’re kind of opening it up for them to write what they want,” Francona said of Bauer last week. “For whatever reason, Trevor’s been like that. I’ll see something he says in the media and it’s a complete different tone than when I was talking to him. What’s more important to me is what he says to us, but you also have to live with what you say.
“I know he can get real active on the Twitter and things like that. We’ve talked to him about stuff like that, but everybody’s different.”
Different. Bauer is different. But if you didn’t know that already, you haven’t been paying attention.
27 Comments
Current Roster love affairs of mine…
1. Santana
2. Bauer
3. Frankie
Well, the WFNY Indians preview series is just for you. Two down…
Fantastic write-up here Scott. I completely agree. I see so many reasons Bauer’s switch will flip to the ON location in 2016, but he’s impossible to pin down (for good and bad). If he does figure out which pitches he wants to throw and pitch them well? Whooo boy, the New York Mets might not even be able to compare to our staff.
You know I had a post comment thought….
This roster is absolutely packed dudes that seem highly marketable to me. Carlos, Trevor, Frankie, Brantley, Kip, Kluber are all guys that would make fantastic campaigns.
For everyone that wants to gripe about spending/attendance correlation I’d say the real failure of the Front Office is not getting the general public cozy with these guys as much as possible to draw in attendance.
But why is he wearing boxing gloves?
Cookie and Salazar too. Team full of great marketable guys, yes. Problem is, seems most see Indians commercial and immediately downplay anything they see.
If this team does win AL Central / make a run, then people will appreciate the character of guys on the team. Hope it happens.
Tribe played the Royals a few days after they had two bench-clearing brawls. Bauer wasn’t pitching, but he was ready.
For when you gotta be a good teammate, but you also gotta protect those pitching hands.
These are about the only things Carlos can sell:
http://d1w7nqlfxfj094.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/ortho-shoe.jpg
…aaand then there’s this guy:
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/3483cd8745cb0429e50f6014d78ef569f676c007/c=1290-174-2130-804&r=x404&c=534×401/local/-/media/DetroitFreePress/None/2014/10/02/1412272493000-1a-promo-1001-2-JP-2-1-P28MRPSK-L493512124.JPG
When Santana ends up with more Indians HRs than Joe Carter, more doubles than Albert Belle, and more RBIs than Rocky Colavito; I expect a long post from you about how you absolutely adore Carlos 🙂
*LOLOLOLOLOLOL*
Wait….is that true? *LOL*
Not so, I will merely dismiss it as a statistical fluke and start advocating to “SELL HIGH!!”
Team Conspiracy is ready for all eventualities.
Well, the bearded hipsters need a dude they can relate to as well.
And if we’re gonna have all this craft beer/local food stuff out for consumption then there will most certainly be bearded hipsters.
Yes. Google “Trevor Bauer Boxing Gloves.”
*LOL*Somehow, I totally missed that story last year!
Haha. Well, those franchise leaderboards are going to have his name on there for a long, long time 🙂
Entomologist fans also appreciate him.
Franchise leaderboards are for people who live in the past. Live in the NOW man.
I guess the question is, how exactly would they cozy up those guys to the public?
That is the question for sure. I just see really likeable guys on this team that I feel like the FO is missing out on capitalizing on.
I just used entomology in a sentence 5 minutes ago…but I meant to use etymology.
I, absolutely, feel the same way. Even if I weren’t an Indians fan, Lindor is the type of player that I would feel is a must-see. But if Clevelanders don’t see that or feel that way already, I’m not sure what will help. Maybe get Lebron to tweet out some highlights?
Yeah LeBron tweeting is doing *wonders* for the Cavs PR right now.
SELL HIGH!
Haha, thought about replying to you on this one earlier. Called my shot with Santana’s big season 🙂