Win or lose, it’s good to be Cleveland: While We’re Waiting
October 27, 2016Corral the Wildcats: Ohio State – Northwestern Preview
October 27, 2016One of the few bright spots from Game 2 of the World Series was that Danny Salazar pitched for the first time since being shut down in September. Not only that, but he faced the heart of the Cubs order and managed to escape without allowing a hit or a run.
The Cubs won the game, 5-1, and tied the series at a game each, but having a functional Salazar coming out of the bullpen would be important moving forward. But, was Salazar back to being himself on the mound or was that a limited version of himself?
Despite not allowing a hit or run, it was not exactly smooth sailing for Salazar. He threw 19 pitches in the inning, but only eight of them were either batted or fell in for strikes. Throwing just over 40 percent strikes against this Cubs team is asking for trouble as walking Ben Zobrist and Kyle Schwarber could have shown if not for inducing some ultimately harmless contact from Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez.
numbers courtesy of brooksbaseball.net
Salazar was sticking with his four-seam fastball, his two-seam fastball (sinker), and his changeup. He had good velocity as those fastballs were sitting at 95 miles per hour and even touched 96. For the movement on his pitches, he was throwing his four-seamer almost exactly as normal compared to the rest of 2016. However, his changeup and sinker were both breaking significantly more on the vertical plane, which decreased the difference between the pitches to the hitter (sinker looked more similar to four-seamer).
numbers courtesy of brooksbaseball.net
Another worrisome trait here is that the slider and curve were absent from his selections on Wednesday. The reason these pitches are so effective despite a more limited usage is that they move different than the other three. Notice the horizontal plane movement. While the first three pitches he was using move on the negative axis, the slider and curve move on the positive. So, a hitter sitting on a four-seam fastball has a better chance adjusting to a sinker moving in a similar fashion than he does a curve that cuts the opposite direction.
It could be that Salazar was worried about his command on a cold, wet night when he hadn’t pitched in over a month. But, without those secondary offerings, he is relying purely on mixing up velocities to hitters, which turns him into Zach McAllister. Sure, he can still be effective in short stints, but we are hoping for more.
plot courtesy of brooksbaseball.net
Salazar was not locating well at all. He did not leave any over the heart of the plate to get mashed, but he rarely was even nibbling to help Perez frame him some called strikes. The Corey Kluber versus Trevor Bauer dynamic in the first two games demonstrated that the way to get Cubs’ hitters out is to throw strikes. Salazar struggled mightily doing so in Game 2.
There is still time for Danny Salazar to make a difference in the World Series. Game 2 might have been all about getting his feet wet in a game that was a five-run deficit before he even entered. He did manage to navigate the inning without allowing any damage, but it would have felt more heartening had his pitching profile matched his normal state. As is, Salazar is at least a useful arm that can be called out of the pen for an inning or two. Given that this series looks to be headed for a full slate, he’ll be needed.
14 Comments
To be above 95 on the 4-seamer is as good a sign as any, to me. I would definitely not expect his breaking stuff to have been sharp last night considering the circumstance, the weather, and the layoff.
He can get away with sinker/fastball as long as he is fast. Imagine what this arm could do for the Indians’ bullpen – up a run in the 4th inning he could bridge you right to Miller in the 7th.
Great piece Bode. He was missing low and away on his last two batters, whatever that translates into.
The entire pitching staff approach has been to challenge with offspeed and breaking stuff and make them chase FB out of the zone. Ya gotta wonder why he is not throwing those pitches. Asked why Bauer threw so many fastballs, Perez said it was not part of the game plan. Even McAllister was throwing curves for strikes.
If you can’t throw breaking stuff for strikes, you really can’t execute their strategy. It’s the only reason Merritt is here.
Can’t walk anyone, let alone back to back in the postseason. I was not all that encouraged.
I was never a pitcher, so i don’t know from firsthand experience, but one has to wonder: if you can’t throw a breaking ball for a strike, how the hell are you even in the big leagues?
It’s not just throwing it for a strike, but it is throwing it for a strike that is not gifting the batter a barrel (new term for best type of hard-hit ball —- EV + LA)
Looking at it as wondering if Salazar was a starting option for their piece. I don’t think he is w/o those secondary offerings. Like I noted, it makes him McAllister (still useful, just not Salazar-level).
In preparations for the ALCS, he was supposedly hitting his velocity numbers but the team was worried he wouldn’t be able to throw his breaking stuff. It appears to still be the case.
I get that he might not have been sharp with it, but to not even throw one despite being in mop up duty is worrisome to me.
“I get that he might not have been sharp with it, but to not even throw one despite being in mop up duty is worrisome to me.” –you know, I didn’t even consider that. Good point. I’m not encouraged but I am optimistic.
He certainly is capable, he’s just not doing it right now. That’s what’s gotta make you wonder.
Greg Maddux is in the HOF having never thrown a strike…
Loved McCarver’s line – his strikes look like balls, and his balls look like strikes. Sums up the essence of pitching (excluding those who can simply throw it by the hitter).
Uh oh. I just posted on your earlier game analysis that Salazar should replace Bauer in the rotation. The numbers don’t seem to point in my direction. I hope that with a side day, he can develop his breaking pitch to the point where he can still replace Bauer. Salazar has the heart to compete, and I have my doubts about Bauer. I have seen guys get by on guile before in the WS, and Salazar has a better chance to do this than does Bauer. Great analysis as always.
First, thank you.
The reason I don’t think it’s just a side day thing here is that they discussed being worried that he couldn’t throw his breaking stuff before the ALDS, before the ALCS…then, they put him on the roster but didn’t mention it.
I’m thinking it’s more of an arm thing that’s been bugging him all year. I hope to be proven grossly wrong here, mind you.
I am most worried about our defense in left field tomorrow
with the winds, the ball might just go over that wall in left field when it travels that way