The Cleveland Indians versus Jon Lester

Editor’s Note: This piece was originally published prior to Game 1 of the World Series. We have updated it to reflect Sunday night’s Game 6 matchup.

The Cleveland Indians face Jon Lester one win away from their first World Series Championship since 1948. Lester’s surface level production was fantastic in 2016, posting 19 wins and a sparkling 2.44 ERA. Both FIP and xFIP had him as roughly one run worse, pointing to a significant overperformance of his peripherals.

Without much precision it is easy to see why. Lester posted the best strand rate of his career at 84.9 percent, an unsustainable rate which is certainly the result of noise and randomness.¹ The Chicago Cubs starter also posted the lowest BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) of his big league career while not changing his batted ball profile in any significant way. Another indicator of positive randomness.  Indeed, there is no change one could point to for a reason of the radical decrease in BABIP.

This is a useful allusion to a conversation about ERA. In a reflective sense, Lester was fantastic when pondering his in-season success. ERA telling us some of what happened. While nothing is capable of prediction with any significant precision, FIP and xFIP are better reflections of Lester’s true talent than ERA. Alas, one cannot write an article analyzing the profile of one Jon Lester without noting his yips. Jeff Sullivan wrote a brilliant article at Fangraphs discussing the challenge for opponents of internalizing that Lester has the yips. While Lester will not throw to first, it seems to be a truth that runners do not believe, as the Dodgers had numerous opportunities to slam down the gas pedal in the NLCS.

The Indians are a fantastic base running team, even better when facing left handed pitchers like Lester because Rajai Davis is in the lineup. Lester allowed 28 steals in 41 attempts. Which is not a particularly bad caught stealing rate. There are a couple of inputs of value that allow him to somewhat limit stealing efficiency, one being he is very quick to the plate. The Indians base running advantage could play very well against Lester if they pay no mind to reason regarding Lester’s pickoff move.

In terms of the lineup it will look something like this: (includes wRC+ against LHP)

1. Rajai Davis 112 wRC+  R
2. Jason Kipnis   89 wRC+ L
3. Francisco Lindor 116 wRC+ S
4. Mike Napoli  142 wRC+ R
5. Jose Ramirez  99 wRC+ S
6. Carlos Santana 129 wRC+ S
7. Brandon Guyer 144 wRC+
8. Roberto Perez 91 wRC+ R
9. Trevor Bauer R

While pitcher-hitter statistics are limited and lack any predictive power due to a lack of sample size, the top of the Indians lineup has enjoyed facing Lester in the past.

Top of Indians order vs lefties (Davis, Kipnis, Lindor, Napoli) is 24-72 (.333 BA) vs Jon Lester

— Ryan McCrystal (@TribeFanMcC) October 23, 2016

Now the fun part, data visualization.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

For Jon Lester there are three pitches of consistent significant usage, fastball, cutter, and curveball.

Lester’s fastball sits at 93 MPH with solid arm side run. The wRC+ of opposing hitters against Lester’s fastball was 72. His fastball was 28 percent above league average in 2016.

His usage in the strike zone against right handed hitters is actually somewhat strange, avoiding the top of the strike zone and pounding the bottom half/outside.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Obviously, the Cubs will make counter measures based on scouting reports but the Indians have a fair number of low-ball hitters which pose a potential advantage. A final note, Lester shows a willingness to ride the fastball in to right handed hitters.

Carlos Santana, murderer of all fastballs in all places.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Lester’s cutter is an even better offering inducing a wRC+ against of 57 in 2016. The pitch is used to break the hands of right handed hitters.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Essentially 50 percent of Lester’s cutters end up off the plate inside against right handed hitters.

Napoli is an interesting matchup as the curveball could be a nightmare but the fastball and cutter usage are somewhat favorable. A fun matchup to follow in terms of usage and location.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Finally, the curveball Lester’s out pitch. Inducing a 52 percent strikeout rate in 2016! This pitch is brutal and rarely thrown in the strike zone.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Lester before throwing the curveball can be heard singing  “I’m going down, down, down to the burning ring of strikeouts”.

One player who could pose a problem for the buried inner half curveball is Jose Ramirez who has success digging the curve out in a small sample.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

For the Indians, Lester appears to be a tough matchup with his ability to run cutter in on the hands of right handed hitters and spike the curveball down. The Indians have not been much better than average against left handed pitching and Lester is one of the best.  Yet, if this Indians playoff run has taught us anything, baseball is wildly unpredictable. The Indians punished lefty David Price, and handled J.A. Happ. In usage/location, Lester poses some difficulty but perhaps the Indians baserunning value can neutralize some of that advantage.

For the Indians, laying off an elite curveball will be a challenging but essential task.

1. A BABIP against of .088 in high leverage is a big piece [↩]