Top QBs for the 2017 NFL Draft: While We’re Waiting

With the first pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns select…

The above phrase has a high probability of being heard from the mouth of Roger Goodell next spring as Week 1 did nothing to dissuade those who believe the Browns are tanking 2016 in order to rebuild for a more competent future.¹ Robert Griffin III is hurt. Josh McCown is old. Cody Kessler looks lost. Kevin Hogan is, well, Kevin Hogan.

If the Browns’ front office—having traded multiple players for multiple picks over the last month—is going to be looking to the future with their roster moves, then we should be looking to the future as well, specific to  how we follow the team. There are entertaining games on Saturdays where the best college football quarterbacks are displaying their skills in order to entice a NFL team into giving them millions of dollars.²

Here is your guide on who to watch as the next potential Week 1 starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns.³ Unless, of course, you believe Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, or a recovering Robert Griffin III will hold that distinction. No? Good. Here we go:

Tier 1 : Potential Franchise Quarterbacks

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
6-foot-4, 230 pounds

The 2017 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a DeShone versus Deshaun battle royale for the No. 1 overall pick. Watson was the pre-emptive favorite coming into the season (more below), but Kizer has been phenomenal to the point that it is almost inconceivable to imagine what head coach Brian Kelly was thinking when he gave Malik Zaire drives in the Notre Dame versus Texas game.⁴

Kizer possesses the big body and strong arm that NFL evaluators love. He has shown good decision-making with an ability to put the ball into small windows whether or not he is under pressure or left alone in the pocket. Kizer also has an ability to run with the football. He does have a bad mechanical habit of using his arms too much, but overall he appears to have jumped to the head of quarterback prospect pack. Barely.

Deshaun Watson, Clemson Tigers
6-foot-2, 205 pounds

Starting three years at quarterback for the incredibly creative Dabo Swinney will do wonders for your draft profile. As a sophomore, Watson pushed Clemson into the National Championship game and looked every bit the potential top NFL draft prospect he was touted to be against a tough Alabama defense (400-plus yards, four touchdowns). Those inventive screens, however, have been countered thus far in the 2016 season and Watson has struggled to incorporate the uber-talented Mike Williams⁵ back from the neck injury that had him miss last season. Clemson’s offense hasn’t looked the same—yet.

The “yet” part of that equation is key though as there are plenty of good defenses and national spotlight matchups for Watson to make a resurgence as the best quarterback in college football and/or the best NFL quarterback prospect.⁶ The Auburn game featured also featured Watson making good decisions and managing a close game rather than trying to forcefully create something that was not available. He might be a step behind Kizer right now, but it is not a large step by any means.

Brad Kaaya, Miami Hurricanes
6-foot-4, 215 pounds

Hey, it worked with Bernie Kosar. It sort of worked with Vinnie Testaverde. Kaaya already knows how to use Duke Johnson as a weapon. An

Anyone looking for a more prototypical in-the-pocket passer is going to like Kaaya. He stays in the pocket, he puts the ball in tight windows, and he limits big play mistakes.

Kaaya is going to struggle under pressure some as he doesn’t have the same elusiveness as Kizer-Watson (and some of the others on this list). He makes the top tier though as he has the experience and ridiculously smooth throwing motion.

Tier 2 : Supposed potential franchise quarterbacks

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
6-foot-2, 215 pounds

Kelly is a quarterback with a bad off-the-field history. He was kicked off his high school team, kicked out of Clemson, and arrested before joining Ole Miss where he plead guilty to disorderly conduct. Add to it that he fell apart under pressure in 2015. When Florida State started to blitz in Week 1, he similarly fell apart (10 percent passing under pressure as the Rebels gave away a big lead).

Still, the nephew of Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly, Chad Kelly continues to get mentions and remain on draft boards due to his obvious talent, arm strength, and competitive fire. He still has a long way to go though to prove he is worth what his draft stock says he is.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
6-foot-5, 235 pounds

Rudolph might not be 40, but he sure looks like a man.⁷ He is a behemoth with a huge arm. Despite a spread attack, he has shown good accuracy on his timing route throws.

Rudolph’s main issue thus far, however, has been his inability to look-off from his first or second read. If he is going to succeed in the NFL, he will need to work through his progressions quicker.⁸

Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech / Luke Falk, Washington State
6-foot-3, 219 pounds / 6-foot-4, 205 pounds

Go ahead and pick your uber-talented quarterback that is almost impossible to evaluate due to playing in a true college-spread offense. The mad pirate offense at Washington State under the direction of Mike Leach continues to be impressive, but is it Falk or the system? Similarly, Kliff Klingsbury has the ball flying all over the field in Lubbock, Texas, but it is hard to discern how much is due to Mahomes directing the offense.

Both quarterbacks rate this high due to their throwing ability and NFL coaches willingness to take the risk (both quarterbacks also rated highly coming out of high school – they have the physical tools). Any NFL team taking these quarterbacks, however, will not be sure what they are getting until Training Camp at the earliest.

Tier 3 : Probable Mid-round quarterbacks

Cooper Rush, QB, Central Michigan University
6-foot-3, 230 pounds

Did y’all like that Hail Mary that showed-off his arm strength? Sure, the lateral was essential and the play itself should have never happened, but Rush demonstrated a complete ease at throwing the ball nearly 60 yards in the air to the perfect spot for his receiver. He is more pocket-mobile than a runner, but he is quite elusive and keeps his eyes upfield. Rush is definitely a name to watch as he competes in MACtion play.

Brady Gustafson – Montana (FCS)
6-foot-7, 235 pounds

If one is looking for this year’s version of Carson Wentz, then going with the quarterback that led a comeback against Wentz last year might do the trick. Gustafson is a Byron Leftwhich type of big quarterback that wants to remain in the pocket and pick apart a defense. He did not put up the biggest numbers in 2015, but he did catch scout’s eyes with his mechanics, arm strength, and overall girth.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
6-foot-2, 215 pounds

The Sooner quarterback has a bit of Johnny Manziel in him. He will elude in the pocket and have terrible mechanics, but he also delivers the ball to the open receiver more often than not. The question will be if these flaws will ultimately undo him in the NFL or if the former walk-on can continue proving those who doubt him wrong. The biggest issue Mayfield has to overcome will be his quickness to abandon the pocket as he loses much of his otherwise good field vision when he does. This weekend’s matchup with Ohio State could either elevate his stock or demonstrate how easy his flaws are to expose.

Josh Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
6-foot-4, 220 pounds

Dobbs was dubbed as a quarterback to watch in 2015 much like the Volunteers were dubbed as a darkhorse team. However, both fell flat. Despite having the tools, mechanical issues and poor decision-making continue to plague him. Dobbs will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his skillset throughout the season as the Volunteers have many nationally broadcast games.

Tier 4 : Likely draftable quarterbacks

Gunner Kiel, QB, Cincinnati – great quarterback name
Davis Webb, QB, California – following in Jared Goff’s footsteps
J.T. Barrett, QB Ohio State – Go Bucks!
C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa – Game manager’s are people too
Seth Russell, QB, Baylor – Video game numbers

None of these quarterbacks are likely to be deemed starter material for the NFL, but each have plenty of the necessary components to prove themselves as a NFL backup.

Tier 5 : UDFA quarterbacks

Patrick Towles, Boston College – Huge, all the physical tools of a top-flight quarterback except being really good at football
Taysom Hill, QB, BYU – Missed 2015 with a foot injury, has plenty of tools but a ton to prove.

Last Word

These quarterbacks can drastically improve or reduce their current stock value as the season goes forward. Mayfield could impress against an elite Buckeye secondary this weekend or Dobbs could pass through the SEC with ease. The season is early and many of these quarterbacks have to put together their physical skills with the mental attributes in order to prove themselves NFL-worthy. Others will be difficult to evaluate regardless due to their offensive systems.

Regardless, tracking the top draftable quarterbacks is almost guaranteed to be more entertaining than the product the Browns are putting on the field this season. And, one of these players is likely to be the starting quarterback for a Browns team worth watching in the future. But, which one?

Or, should the Browns just tank 2017 too and draft the electric Lamar Jackson?

1. Jeff Fisher’s Los Angeles Rams might have something to say about it though. [↩]
2. Along with Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays with the occasional Sunday [↩]
3. 14 Week 1 starting quarterbacks in 18 years with number 15 almost assuredly added in year 19. [↩]
4. Zaire led to zero points of the 47 that the Fighting Irish scored in their 50-47 opening week loss. [↩]
5. No, not Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams. No, not the old Detroit Lion’s Mike Williams. Yes, another one. Yes, he’s a good receiver too. [↩]
6. These can be different things. See: Tebow, Tim; McCoy, Colt; Dorsey, Ken…  [↩]
7. Ed. Note: This reference will never get old. [↩]
8. And, yes, I know he is a Cowboy like Brandon Weeden was who had the same issue. [↩]