Low-cut Cowboy: Bode Plots

On the south side of Chicago Wednesday night, the starting pitching matchup pitted Carlos Rodon of the Chicago White Sox (70-75) versus Josh Tomlin of the Cleveland Indians (84-61), which made Tribe fans know how it feels every time that the Detroit Tigers send Anibal Sanchez to face Carlos Carrasco.¹ Having lost the first two games of the four-game set with the Sox, the third one felt lost before it began.

Instead, after having been skipped a start due to ineffectiveness, the Little Cowboy delivered five innings of shutout ball, while the Indians treated Rodon as if he were soft-tossing batting practice coach. The Indians reminded everyone why the team is considered among the best in baseball as they defeated the White Sox, 6-1. Four different Tribe batters wound up with two hits on the night. Brandon Guyer continued his assualt on left-handed pitchers. Rajai Davis continued to shuck concerns of aging. Jose Ramirez continued being Jose Ramirez.² But, the best offensive player of the night would be when Coco Crisp put the game out of reach with a three-run home run in the sixth inning.

https://vine.co/v/51r0HHM2rID

Crisp has had a fine MLB career, but it was his return to Cleveland where he evoked inspiration in WFNY’s Andrew Clayman to write the 100 Greatest Cleveland Sport Names. Only an Indians World Series title can possibly trump what Crisp has already accomplished on the Northcoast.

Born Covelli Loyce Crisp, the speedy outfielder had acquired his nickname from his grandma, who called him “Co” for short. This eventually evolved into “Coco,” as Crisp’s transformation from young man to Kellogg’s breakfast cereal was complete. Unlike a lot of humorously named ballplayers, Coco actually entertained the fans with his skills, as well, tallying 31 homers, 140 RBI, 35 SB, a .299 AVG, and .804 OPS between 2004 and 2005.

Even with Crisp capturing the imagination of people throughout the nation, the story of the night still belonged to the resurrection of Tomlin as a quality MLB pitcher. The biggest unanswered question though was if there was a reason behind the improvement or if it was a happenstance start.

Let’s take a look.

Good Tomlin: April through July 2016

via brooksbaseball.net

Even good Tomlin was giving up home runs at an alarming rate even in a year with a potentially juiced baseball. Having a fourseam fastball topping out under 90 miles per hour is just not ideal in this modern era of baseball. Hitters are too good and video analysis allows for any possible tip to a pitch to be recognized.

Having five different pitches he could mix-and-match paired with his elite control (87:14 SO:BB) became the calling card that allowed Tomlin to limit the opposition.

via baseball-reference.com

Bad Tomlin: August 2016

via brooksbaseball.net

Tomlin started using his cutter more in place of his fourseam fastball in August. The results were not encouraging. Hitters began sitting on the pitch and crushing the Little Cowboy as his ERA was eight runs higher for August.

via baseball-reference.com

The more Tomlin leaned on his cutter, the more hitters could wait for it and pounce as the SLG% against it reached obscene levels. In the same period, his curveball was becoming a more effective pitch (perhaps due to hitters looking for that cutter and guessing wrong).

Since start of June, Tomlin has seen improvement with curve, but cutter has been a big culprit behind his struggles. pic.twitter.com/wrMc1pDXHE

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) August 29, 2016

Wednesday Pitch Types

Francona noted that Tomlin's cutter/four-seam have flip-flopped. Team will examine if that needs to be corrected. pic.twitter.com/3b1Ihd9BA2

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) August 31, 2016

Tomlin had also been relying more on his cutter than in year’s past even outside the uptick in August usage. Terry Francona and Mickey Callaway noted that the Indians were considering cutting back on that usage model. After Tomlin’s skipped start, Francona might as well have gifted the White Sox the scouting report with those quotes. Yet, they could do nothing with the fine-tuned Tomlin.

via brooksbaseball.net

Instead of going back to heavy-usage on his fourseam fastball, Tomlin mixed in more sinkers and curveballs; the latter becoming his most effective pitch. Give credit to the entire Indians staff here (including catcher Chris Gimenez) for developing a gameplan that would keep the White Sox guessing. Tomlin made them look ridiculous when they guessed wrong.

https://vine.co/v/51r2VInzbBu

Wednesday Pitch Location

via brooksbaseball.net

Notice how many pitches are on that outside edge, which is where Tomlin wants to spend most of his evening painting. But, it is also important he pounds some fastballs on the inside edge if he is going to be effective. On Wednesday, he did. Tomlin mixed up locations with all his pitches to keep hitters off-balance but still threw strikes because that is who Tomlin is. This chart is quintessential Tomlin.

Last Word

Josh Tomlin will be a fringe-starter with a fastball under 90 miles per hour. He is capable of remaining a valueable fifth starter in a rotation as long as he combines his elite control with his a deep arsenal of pitches. When a pitch is being used too often, hitters can sit on it and pad their offensive stats.

Callaway and Francona did a fine job of diagnosing his issues and figuring out how to get Tomlin right. There was no magic rest. There was no spending two weeks in Miami hanging out with Dwyane Wade. Tomlin spent his time off working hard in bullpen sessions to keep his issues and himself sharp.

October is near and the Indians might need Josh Tomlin to start a game. If that day comes, here’s hoping the Little Cowboy remembers to continue to cut his cutter usage. Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz knows what to do when he sees a Tomlin cutter cross the plate.

https://twitter.com/TJZuppe/status/765256757048291328

1. Cookie has won all three meetings against Sanchez decisively. [↩]
2. You know, awesome. [↩]