NEO High School Football Week 5: Top ten teams win big
September 26, 2016Why you probably shouldn’t watch the Presidential debates
September 26, 2016One. One game. One week.
The Cleveland Indians enter the final week of 2016 MLB regular season play needing one win or one loss from the Detroit Tigers to claim the AL Central Division title. They begin this final week with a four game set at 2100 Woodward Ave. in Detroit; against those very Tigers.
The math is simple. Beat the Tigers to get into the postseason. Then, go after obtaining homefield advantage in the ALDS.
For that homefield advantage or to simply know their ALDS opponent, the Indians will be eyeballing the scoreboard. The Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers both sit at 92-64, while the Indians are 1 1/2 game behind both, at 90-65.
The hope is that the one game doesn’t complicate the one week because the one week could play a key component in the success of the Indians in the coming playoffs.
While social media has been busy slamming Cleveland for the attendance woes, the Indians themselves have been loving life in the friendly confines of Progressive Field. Their 53-28 (.654) record at home is the best in AL, and tied for second (with the Dodgers), behind the Chicago Cubs, in all of baseball. Jacob’s Field / Progressive Field has only seen two marks better in the ballpark’s history. The inaugural strike-shortened 1994 season (35-16, .686) and AL pennant winning 1995 season (54-18, .750).
In other words, home field is really important.
Which brings the focus back to the one game alongside the last two series against the pesky Detroit Tigers and defending-champion Kansas City Royals. If the Indians can manage to break the back of the Tigers on Monday night, then perhaps their road can be a wee bit easier. Sometimes that final “one” can be extremely difficult. So, with Corey Kluber on the mound, this might be the most important game of the season.
Our stopper has to stop in order for the Indians be able to focus on obtaining the homefield advantage.
Terry Francona is currently walking down a precarious path of players getting tired (see: Francisco Lindor) and trying to push the injury-riddled team into the best chance at returning a World Series championship to Cleveland for the first time since Lou Boudreau’s 1948 team.
While Michael Martinez and Chris Gimenez didn’t fully cost the team Sunday’s final volley with the Chicago White Sox, their slack-ass hitting and mistakes playing defense certainly didn’t help.
This is less a criticism than it is just a statement of facts. While you can argue that Martinez should never play MLB especially for a contending ballclub, it’s not as though Eric Gonzalez is a step above. Lindor needed a break, thus it is the nature of the beast with the currently assembled team.
They’re missing several players, so these back-ups have to make a difference.
The road for the Rangers
The Indians are 2-5 against the Rangers, so the Tribe would have to finish a game ahead to gain the better seed. With only six games left to play, the Rangers play all six games at home against the Milwaukee Brewers (70-86) and Tampa Bay Rays (65-90).
Milwaukee limps into Texas having lost four of their past six baseball games, after playing near .500 baseball for much of the second half. The pitching match-ups are closer than one might think for the first two games,1 but Wednesday sees Chase Anderson going up against arguably Texas’ best starter in Cole Hamels.
Obviously, the Rangers offense provides more pop, and it’s not like the Brewers are some sort of Rangers traditional opponent. As a matter of fact, the only true interest in this game is the fact that the Rangers are playing Jonathan LuCroy’s old team, the Milwaukee Brewers. Will Milwaukee be trying to jam a series loss down the throat of their traded catcher?
Nah, it’ll probably be a love-fest. Oh joy.
The Rays have currently lost three in a row and six of seven. If you’re making a “WTF” face right now, I’d completely understand. I am too. Much like the Brewers’ series, while there’s no true clear-cut pitching edge, the Rangers offense will likely carry the day. The only unknown in the final week of the series is whether or not the Rangers will be resting their players.
The road for the Red Sox
The Red Sox are 4-2 against the Tribe, and like the Rangers, need to fall behind Cleveland to lose home field in the series. The road the Sox have to travel is a much more difficult one than the Rangers, however, and will also be full of pageantry with David Ortiz playing his final regular seasons games. The Sox head to New York for a three-game set against the Yankees before returning home to play against the Toronto Blue Jays, who are still fighting for an AL Wild Card spot.
Boston has owned the Yankees this year, going 11-5 against their biggest rival, but it might not matter. With Ortiz playing his last games in New York City, there’s no doubt that those in pinstripes would love to send him out with as many losses as possible. Of course, this Yankees team has been winning baseball games with more will than talent.
A trickier proposition given that the Yanks are playing bad baseball. They have lost their last four, 11 of their last 14, and included a four-game sweep at Boston in there. Boston is humming right now, and the Yankees aren’t. The only thing going for the team from New York is that they’re playing a rivalry.
The Blue Jays are a different beast having split the season series right down the middle at 8-8 and currently playing a great brand of baseball. They have taken the first three from the Yankees (they play a fourth on Monday night) and have won five-of-six. The key to this series will likely be what the Blue Jays are playing for.
If they make it to Boston having clinched a wildcard spot, the series may all be about lining things up for their playoff game. If they haven’t though, it could get interesting.
The Blue Jays are a feisty group, and need or not, they aren’t going to lie down for the Red Sox. This is going to be a fun series, and one that the Indians can capitalize on.
The road for the Indians
Not only do the Indians have seven games left,2 they are playing their two arguably biggest rivals in the Tigers and the Royals. The Tigers will want a sweep, and there’s really no need to discuss their offensive capabilities. We know them too well. The Royals will want to punish the Indians and remind the home crowd they won the whole thing just a year ago. So, these final seven aren’t going to be easy.
I can’t decide if this is a good thing or a bad thing. While there are several fans waltzing about with the bravado of a brahma bull, there’s a “limping” feel to this month. With Brantley, Gomes and Carrasco gone, and with Salazar on the mend, there’s a little bit of worry. While the offense is solid, the final series against the White Sox proves just how long the season is.
This is a team that’s been full bore, all year long. It feels like there’s a lag, but this also could be a week in which a championship team shows of their swagger. With the most games on docket, they can make up at least a half game without much thought. If they can somehow go 5-2, it gives them a chance.
On Monday night, Corey Kluber, the likely favorite for the Cy Young Award, goes up against Buck Farmer. That’s right, Buck Farmer. Honestly, has there ever been a name more worthy for a starting pitcher in the 30’s than Buck Farmer?
On Tuesday, Cleveland-killer Justin Verlander goes up against Michael Clevinger, in a match-up that I can’t wait to see. On Wednesday, in another phenomenal match-up, Trevor Bauer faces off against rookie of the year candidate Michael Fullmer. The only thing that could make that more interesting is if Tyler Naquin could pitch. The series closes with Cody Anderson and the bullpen crew against Daniel Norris.
When the Tribe heads to Kansas City, the pitching matchups might wholly depend on if the Indians need to align things for their first-round matchup or if they decide to gun for a better seed.
No matter which way you look at it, it’s not going to be an easy journey for the hometown Indians.
So what does it all mean?
There was a day in which the Indians and their rotation were a team that could beat anyone in the playoffs. With Carrasco and Salazar out, that day is gone. This isn’t saying that the Tribe rotation isn’t something to be reckoned with, especially Kluber, but it would be asinine to throw around Bauer, Clevinger, Tomlin or Anderson numbers and not realize that their strength now lies elsewhere.
So what is?
Home field advantage.
And, while you can bluster about how the Progressive Field advantage has a lot to do with that starting pitching, the Indians and their bullpen will have something to say about that. So will their bats, with a home slash of .288/.359/.469, compared to .237/.297.392 at home.
Seems pretty important.
While one game is all the club needs to make it in the playoffs, the 1 1/2 games that separate them from Boston and Texas could be the most paramount factor in a serious run to the World Series.
And, the road to having more games at Progressive Field than away from it in the postseason starts tonight. Go Tribe.
10 Comments
The Tribe has been really good at home. I have another theory to why they have been so consistently good this year overall too, but I’ll hold off until tomorrow.
It’s that they only eat the right Twix, isn’t it?
Right Twix always melts first due to lack of right-handed power bats or something
I knew it.
Well, not exactly. You need to enter the time ratio for how long you held onto the Twix before eating it. If it is greater than N, then you need to eat the left Twix, otherwise eat the right.
It is obvious the coefficient N depends on height, weight, manual dexterity, temperature, atmospheric pressure, etc. but I suppose it should be mentioned anyways.
And there you go again, messing up purely understandable and enjoyable superstition with analytics.
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ughhh … with the Tigers blowing a couple of 9th inning leads to the Royals , the Indians also have a chance to knock the Tigers out of the 2nd wild card spot.
All is not lost, the two WC holders are Baltimore and Toronto and they play each other. Cheer for one of them to sweep the other.
And, if the Indians win tonight, then let’s just say I would expect Detroit to win tomorrow in the “hangover” game.
94 Tribe started pretty meh at home, including the Rangers sweep – which had the infamous Vizquel 3-error game (I was there).
Despite some fans wanting Mark Lewis returned to shortstop, they went 30-9 at home until the Strike,