How Baseball Changes to the Indians Advantage in the Postseason

“Starting pitching wins championships” is a cliché that Indians fans have been firing out of Twitter canons all the way up until Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco went down with heartbreaking injuries. As trends would have it, however, usage in playoff games—especially in the past few years of progressive reliever usage—has shifted the impact of starters and relievers alike.

At the front of acknowledging the impact reliever revolution was Dave Cameron at Fangraphs who noted that elite relievers received usage rate spikes in the playoffs, ultimately causing a drastic increase in reliever value¹.

The off days are particularly advantageous in giving someone like Andrew Miller 10-15 percent of the team’s post season innings. Here’s Cameron:

The increased frequency of off days makes it easier to lean on your best relievers more often, and the importance of each game provides an incentive to make sure that the best pitchers are on the mound the most often. And this shows up in their usage patterns.

A reliever like Miller or Cody Allen generally throws between 4-6 percent of his team’s regular seasons innings, with Cameron finding that the number is effectively doubled once October rolls in. In the case of Miller, who shows a consistent ability to pitch multiple innings, it is not inconceiveable to see Miller and Allen—two elite-level relievers—cover 17-25 percent of the Indians post season innings, equating to roughly 1 2/3 – 2 1/3 innings per game.

Indians relievers threw 34 percent of the Indians innings so far this regular season. In the 2014-2015 World Series with progressive bullpen usage, relievers pitched 42 percent of the innings. With extended rest, the Indians elite bullpen will have the opportunity to cover for a recently thinned rotation to the tune of roughly 3 2/3 innings per game.

And before you question the usage of “elite,” yes—they’re elite. Here is how the Indians bullpen compares to potential A.L. Playoff opponents, using numbers from the second half².

Indians: ERA 3.07, FIP 3.39 xFIP 3.44

Rangers: ERA 4.18, FIP 3.63 xFIP 3.70

Red Sox: ERA 3.19 FIP 3.63 xFIP 4.02

Blue Jays: ERA 4.20 FIP 4.06 xFIP 3.89

Orioles: ERA 4.18 FIP 4.14 xFIP 4.15

On Tuesday night, as the Indians were battling the Kansas City Royals in a low-scoring affair, Josh Tomlin’s resurrection played a substantial role in the ninth-inning victory, but it was Miller and Brian Shaw who were credited with providing the team with roughly 1/3 of Indians’ win probability. Sure, Brandon Guyer’s heroics tipped the scale, but if not for the work done in the late innings, the opportunity for said events would not have presented itself.

When you factor in the leverage of both situations, it was Shaw who came aboard with an inherited runner in the seventh, recording the final out. When Miller was called in to the game in the eighth, he too had an inherited runner—one who made it all the way to third base thanks to a stolen base and a wild pitch. The bearded reliever would go on to strike out the next two batters, stranding said runner on third, and end the ninth with a flyout, lineout, and a wicked strikeout of Salvador Perez.

Andrew Miller vs. Salvador Perez September 20, 2016

The Indians have the best bullpen of any American League playoff team by any substantive statistical measure. Therefore, in a situation where bullpen usage spikes, the Indians are the best prepared to successfully manage these innings. Tuesday featured a quality start from Josh Tomlin and 12 position players getting at-bats, yet it was Miller and Shaw who, in their 2 1/3 innings of work, provided a third of the added value that took the Indians’ magic number from seven to six.

At first glance, a five game series with Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and a creative pen pairing sounds intimidating. But once you step back and tweak usage rates, things become much more favorable. In said five games, the Indians need to cover roughly 45 innings. Kluber makes two starts and is able to cover (roughly) 14 innings. Miller could easily cover six innings if not more, and Allen could be called on for another four. Between these three players, this is 53 percent of the Indians’ innings covered by a Cy Young candidate, the best reliever in baseball, and a second elite reliever. Think of this as having more than two full games of a five-game series with elite-end arms on the mound.

The Indians nearly innumerable late season injuries certainly limit the team’s margins but the reports of the Indians certain demise have been wildly overstated. Finally, it is officially time to edit the cliché, substituting “elite pitchers pitching in high leverage situations wins championships” for “starting pitching wins championships.”

1. This notion is the basis for the increasing trade cost of acquiring elite relievers, a la Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield [↩]
2. While using only second half data may be considered manipulative, it was done because that is when Miller was added by the Indians and the pen was finally complete [↩]