On the Cleveland Indians and TV numbers: While We’re Waiting
September 29, 2016Browns Film Room: Breaking down Terrelle Pryor’s emergence at WR
September 29, 2016Meaningless losses against the Detroit Tigers in a hangover game on Tuesday, then in a rain-soaked and shortened affair on Wednesday should not bring down the spirits from winning the first AL Central Division championship for the Indians since 2007. There is an argument towards going all-out for home field advantage, but the current state of the Tribe rotation mitigates anything more than ensuring health for the ALDS. Besides, the losses have helped the Tigers in the race for the second Wild Card position, and few scenarios would be more enjoyable than defeating Detroit in the ALCS.
With the ALDS a week away, fans must turn the conversation over to other inconsequential conversations to keep themselves occupied. The proposed winners of the American League awards offers plenty of choices here, but the arguments around the MVP Award tend to be the most controversial.
Barstool debates can be fun, informative, and add to the entertainment value of following sports. The BBWAA has been intelligent enough to understand this nuance and has set the MVP award instructions in a way to allow for voters to choose their own definition.
Unfortunately, many of the people who are well-versed in the more advanced statistical data use these discussions to admonish those who individuals who prefer to follow baseball a different way. After years and years of needing to fight to have their viewpoints recognized as viable, these fellows do not seem to realize that they won the war and the battles need no longer be fought. As with politics, lecturing rather than explaining tends to put individuals even more staunchly set in their opposition.
Conversely, many of the people who prefer to follow the sport without a dive into the mathematical refinements that a large sample size and constrained variables allow, often use MLB award season as a way of reminding others how baseball was followed and played in their day with the supposition of those being better times.
Rather than fight though, there is reason for both sides to flourish. The differences among us are what make life interesting and why there are so many fantastic pieces written on the subject before the MLB postseason begins. These articles often serve as a dutiful reminder of the great season that has past and a historical marker for those in the future digging for more depth than they will find on the pages of baseball-reference.
So, let’s dive in rather than dipping our toe. Here is an argument for several different definitions of the AL MVP Award and how the voting might look under each guideline. And, let the discussion continue into the comment section. Let’s enjoy it.
Advanced Stats-Only Vote
Mike Trout is the best player in the American League and all of MLB. There are many statistics that can be used to demonstrate it including WAR, WPA, wOBA, etc. He is an all-around ballplayer who will likely be talked about in the same breath as guys like Ken Griffey Jr., Ted Williams, and Mickey Mantle.
Given that Trout is the best player, he should be the AL MVP. Easy enough even if he plays for a team that is currently 15 games under .500.
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (9.2 fWAR)
2. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (7.6 fWAR)
3. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays (7.5 fWAR)
4. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (6.7 fWAR)
5. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (6.4 fWAR)
Old School Stats-Only Vote
There are still plenty of people alive who remember the good old days when batting average, home runs, RBIs, and runs ruled the day for the AL MVP vote with an emphasis on power numbers. Hey, maybe someone got frisky with an exceptional year stealing bases and that popped up on the radar too. And, any player from a losing team receiving votes better be distinctly above the others.
The voting strategy is easy to mock, but it is not as if the end result is a bad list of MVP candidates.
1. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (.319, 31 HR, 119 R, 110 RBIs, 26 SB)
2. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (.339, 24 HR, 107 R, 96 RBIs, 28 SB)
3. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (.318, 29 HR, 122 R, 99 RBIs, 27 SB)
4. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (.311, 35 HR, 88 R, 102 RBIs, 0 SB)
5. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (.318, 37 HR, 77 R, 124 RBIs, 2 SB)
Narrative Vote
While baseball is a game with a large enough sample size for data to be significant, it is also a beautiful game told by the stories generated through playing nearly every day for six straight months. The statistics are merely one tool with which to tell the story. The AL MVP Award is another such tool that will highlight the most important (and as such valuable) player to the game of baseball in that particular year, not just value to an individual team.
There are innumerable ways to vote and quantify this category, but do realize performance does also play a large role.
1. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (Among the best hitters in baseball during 41 year old retirement tour.)
2. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (Flipped between 3B and SS despite star status to help O`s compete.)
3. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers (Future HOFer led oft-injured ballclub to sustained success.)
4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (Emerged to replicate and replace Michael Brantley in Indians lineup.)
5. Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (Huge bounceback year to give M`s chance at playoffs.)
Blended Vote
Blending statistics and narratives might tell the story of the season best. Sadly, the tools with which to do so are limited. Seeing a cumulative WAR score during games a team actually won would show which players contributed the most value to their teams that helped result in wins. Since the object of the game is to win games, it would set the bar on how to navigate the discussion for players such as Trout who haven’t played in a meaningful MLB game since June.
Perhaps the filtering will be better in the future to allow a chart of both cumulative stats (WAR, WPA, etc) and rating stats (wRC+, OPS+, etc.) to be allowed. For this list, I used Runs Created and OPS+ as they were available.
Trout shows how great he has been despite toiling with the Angels. He created the fifth most runs in games won in the AL despite the handicap of having so many fewer games that counted in the tally. Adding his AL-best OPS+ score in those games was almost enough to top this list.
1. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays (2nd most RC, 3rd best OPS+)
2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (5th, 1st)
3. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays (3rd, 6th)
4. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox (1st, N/A)
5. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (N/A, 2nd)
Hometeam Vote
Who said the vote had to be fair? Might as well root, root, root for the home team and get as many of them on the Also Receiving Votes line as possible.
1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
3. Jose Ramirez, 3B/Utility
4. Corey Kluber, SP
5. Jason Kipnis, 2B
Your Vote
Pick a method from these lists or come up with your own. Let’s just have some civil debates about who should be the 2016 AL MVP Award recipient and utilize the discussion to further increase the joys of following MLB. Have fun.
33 Comments
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i like it easy , baby … “old school” for me.
i think Betts & Altuve finish 1 & 2 in the MVP & Porcello wins the AL CY … see how flippin’ easy that was ??
it will go mostly unnoticed , but look at the year Brian Dozier is having :
(.270 , 42 HR , 102 R , 99 RBI , 18 SB)
with 1 more RBI , he will be one of the few players in all baseball to score 100 runs & have 100 RBI’s … and unless Altuve gets 4 more RBI’s , Cano 3 more RBI’s & Machado 6 more RBI’s , Dozier will be the only middle-infielder in all baseball to accomplish the feat.
and look at his HR total !! … he’d be getting some top-10 votes from me
Definitely not unnoticed by me. If Dozier did a full season what he did in the 2nd half, then he’d be pushing Trout (Trout 3.9 fWAR, Dozier 3.8 fWAR — 2nd half)
Glad you agree with my Old School nominees. Tried to make sure I kept those to how the voting would go.
AL Cy Old School votes would be interesting. Kluber tops Porcello in SO’s pretty handily and is only down 22-18 in Ws. So, it would likely come down to ERA, which Kluber forfeited in his last start. Does Porcello have any starts left?
New School would come down to a fight between Sale and Kluber and it’d be really close.
The fact that Kluber is close in both is why I expect him to win (either type of voter will have him in the Top 2).
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Porcello pitches tomorrow , at home against Toronto … no easy chore. the only way he loses the CY is if gets yanked after 1-3 innings & gives up 6 or more runs … i guess it could happen.
“old school” says Sale is already eliminated due to the Sox crappy showing & Sale butchering the old throwback uni’s … you just don’t do that stuff … it was bad Karma for Sale.
so , it’s Porcello or Kluber … that’s it.
See, actually WATCHING the sport isn’t even necessary when it comes to Dweebmetrics.
Just compile box scores, and barf out computed stats.
Well, Trout has a HrpDrp rating of 73.9, but Betts has a Id10t score of 4, buuuuuut Ortiz has a WHoCaRz coefficient of 978.
have you seen my baseball?
yes, that’s my point. old school has Sale distant, so those voters won’t have him very high. new school has Porcello 3rd, so he won’t crack Top 2 in most those votes.
Kluber is either 1st or 2nd in both methods. combine them across the spectrum of voters and he wins.
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Bode is disproving this classic theory, trying to have his Pi and eat it too.
Betty: Are all nerds as good as you?
Lewis: Yes.
Betty: How come?
Lewis: ‘Cause all Jocks ever think about is sports, all we ever think about is sex.
okay , another one : AL ROY – Fulmer , Naquin or someone else ?? i thought Fulmer had a lock on it … but his last 2 starts , both against the Indians , were very shaky. he needed 3 more innings to qualify for the ERA title.
how about Gary Sanchez from the Yankees ? … 20 HR’s in only 49 games … he’s done nicely , but i don’t think he played enough games.
I would go:
Fulmer
Sanchez
Naquin
Basically, I’d discount that the Indians destroy Fulmer to a degree as he’s so good against everyone else. Sanchez made the argument interesting, but I agree he just didn’t have enough time to pull it off.
Ringer says: https://theringer.com/the-lineup-2016-mlb-award-picks-380e28643aff#.8hnbk8o3k
AL MVP : Trout
AL Cy : Kluber
AL ROY : Fulmer
the impressive thing about Fulmer is after 4 starts his ERA was at 6.52 … he did not throw a single change-up in these starts … once he started throwing & mastering it , things turned around for him.
the Tigers downfall this season was they didn’t have kinsler , maybin , cabrera , v-mart , j.d. , castellanos & upton all healthy at the same time & being able to run that line-up out there everyday … upton had a miserable first half & a torrid 2nd half … the other thing was having to go with 3 rookies (fulmer , norris & boyd) in the starting rotation in the 2nd half … these 3 rookies were acquired in the trades for david price & cespedes … it looks like the trades are paying off & i’m hoping the Tigers can have a starting rotation sorta resembling what the Indians have.
Norris pitches today.
i think most can live with these … but Trout’s team was horrible … i still think Betts or Altuve is the MVP.
In a best effort to explain and not lecture, it’s really a stretch to me to use just numbers in games won, as you’re punishing Trout for the Angels having terrible pitching. He leads the league in the WPA, and by so much that the gap between one and two is larger than the gap between two and 17. He’s done more to help his team win than anyone else in the league. It’s just that some of his teammates have done a lot of things to help their team lose.
Also, that runs produced number has issues with the context of each players situation. Boston and Toronto have better players around around their top two guys than Trout does, so the latter is just simply going to get a lot fewer chances to be drive in runs, or be driven in himself. Also, park factors play a big part in hurting Trout. Boston and Toronto play in great hitter’s parks, Boston PK was 108 (league average is 100), Toronto’s was 111, and LA’s was 95. Trout plays in an environment where quite a bit fewer runs are scored, making it difficult to use any numbers that just count them up.
I’m more a blended thought but it is impressive how well Trout has done to make even that an argument given how much ahead he has been from all other baseballers this year.
Tigers downfall this season
I believe it was losing 14 of the first 16 to a certain division opponent, but that is just me 🙂
yeah , that too …
hi STEVE … so , do you think any of the voters will look at how successful each player’s respective teams were when voting ? … i’m okay with Trout winning , but like it or not , if he doesn’t , that will be the reason why.
Of course they will, and they should. The problem is that far too many will dismiss Trout right away for it.
One more thing, “The BBWAA has been intelligent enough to understand this nuance and has set the MVP award instructions in a way to allow for voters to choose their own definition.” The only thing intelligent about it is that it provides a shield for the Hoyneses to hide behind when they don’t act intelligently. During a recent game, Underwood, Manning, and Knott were discussing who should be the MVP. Knott took some criticism after the game (and even from Bastian and Castrovince), and his response boiled down to “that’s just how I feel”. This is what far too much of the BBWAA does as well. There is little to no evidence that there feeling is anything more than shooting from the hip, and not given some serious thought, and they get mad when their authority gets questioned, and they hide behind a rule they interpret as “I can do whatever the hell I want, shove it nerds”.
Understood. I am making it a partial team award as a way of helping it create the narrative of the season but spoken through the stats. And, even doing so, Trout might have come out on top if I had access to WPA or WAR in wins (Runs created is not the best measure and I fully admit it).
I think it actually shows how amazing Trout was this season even more.
You can have intelligent conversation around any definition/viewpoint if it is fully thought through and discussed.
The Underwood/Manning criticism was warranted (they gave no reasons or justification, which kills me) but it went way over the top with the elitist and confrontational tone from August and Castro especially with how they treated Knott in a public setting.
I guess the real issue is my detest for that runs produced number. It wraps most of the flaws in baseball analysis all up into one.
That’s fine…I used OPS+ as well. I do not like it but I was extremely limited with what I could find as a split without re-creating everything myself, which I’m not going to spend the time doing (well, if Lindor had a better shot at being one of those Top 5, then maybe I would).
I don’t know, I’m not seeing much in the way of being elitist or overly confrontational from those two. August addressed the issue and how shocked he was, Knott asked why he felt that way, August dropped a couple reasons why he thought Trout was that much better and Knott handwaved the conversation away with “we all have opinions”.
The criticism was strong, but I don’t see anything that was unfair. Knott wanted to have his opinion on the MVP put on public display during the broadcast, he’s going to have to respond to the criticism publicly as well.
Fangraphs has a new tool to allow a lot more creative splits on each player page, but does not include in games won or lost. But we’re making progress in this area.
Easy example is seeing the Ringer post on their voting. “no objective measure” and such about voting any other way than Trout being MVP.
Knott was discussing he did not see the award as MOP and playing games that matter to the actual postseason race were important for him to add true value to the MVP season. He was the only of the three that gave his reasoning on the broadcast.
Perhaps it is my own bias, but I saw August/Castro admonishing him w/o giving him much room to do anything other than repeat what he had already described (which they had pretty much said was stupid).
Now, after digging through the numbers and thinking about things more fully —- despite my leanings toward MVP not being a MOP award, Trout has been so good that I think he STILL should either win or be dang close to winning, which is insane.
I’m not much of a fan of the Ringer, so I didn’t read that. Their criticisms may certainly be unfair.
Castro just said that Knott hurt his feelings, a pretty obvious joke, as Castro has just written a piece saying that Trout should be MVP. I don’t think there’s anything noteworthy to that.
August, though, explained his reasoning and gave Knott room to respond to that disagreement. Knott clearly chose the path that he didn’t want his decision scrutinized, which I get, people don’t like that, but Knott is using his platform to spread his opinion to a public. It deserves to get publicly scrutinized.
Yes, I was playing around with their stuff but was stuck there. I agree we are getting more and more data available. I’m more interested in the Statcast stuff than the pure split stuff, but both sides are becoming more inclusive.