Patience with the Browns and analytics: While We’re Waiting…
August 30, 2016The Browns are starting from scratch—Finally!
August 30, 2016Everybody had Zach McAllister obtaining the highest leverage out and Chris Gimenez scoring the game’s only run in the bottom of the 10th inning, right? Ah, baseball is such a fantastic and unpredictable game. The Minnesota Twins (49-82) had several opportunities to continue their quirksome dominance of the Cleveland Indians (74-56), but each time a member of the Tribe was tasked with making a necessary play it was completed successfully.
The pitcher’s duel featured 24 men on base over 10 innings (17 hits and seven walks) with the only offense resulting in a non-curved mark making it to the scoreboard coming on the 18th opportunity of the night with RISP. Jason Kipnis slapped a single over the head of Jorge Polanco and the ball found a soft patch of grass between Eddie Rosario and Robbie Grossman to make landfall as the Indians won, 1-0.
The Indians continue the march towards October as both the Kansas City Royals (5.5 games behind) and Detroit Tigers (4.5) helplessly watched themselves gain no ground.
Intense Trevor Bauer is the best Trevor Bauer
Nothing better than intense Bauer. I cannot wait to see him in October.
— T.D. Dery (@TD1TribeKU) August 29, 2016
In his last start, Trevor Bauer buckled down after a Carlos Santana misplayed pop up and struck out Stephen Vogt as he was clearly fuming on the mound. He would hold the Texas Rangers scoreless after that inning. On Monday, Trevor Plouffe would be the victim of Bauer’s fury. In the first inning, Joe Mauer sat on second base after a double with one out. Bauer took the look of Anakin Skywalker as he entered the temple with the padawans and Plouffe struck out without ever removing his bat from his shoulder.
The third inning saw Plouffe up again with RISP as Juan Centeno and Brian Dozier occupied first and second base with two outs. Plouffe was determined to not watch Bauer strike him out. Instead, he swung through three straight pitches as he was retired to the dugout.
https://vine.co/v/5eVOVgBwhjh
The trend continued in the fourth inning as when Polanco doubled, Bauer struck out Rosario. Every single time Bauer was put in a tough spot, he utilized his pitching repetoire to obtain the true outcome he desired by striking out a Twin batter. So, despite only finishing with four strikeouts in six innings pitched, the sequencing of those K’s was absolutely huge.
Defense comes to play
The Indians defense has been uncharacteristically giving away early leads the past two weeks. The defense resurrected the strong play they had been utilizing to shut down opponents all summer on Monday. In particular, Rajai Davis had a great game as he attempted to win the game all by himself. He made an absolute dart through from deep center field to nab Brian Dozier attempting to stretch a hit into a double (by about five feet). Davis also laid out to rob Miguel Sano of a hit against Bryan Shaw in the eighth inning.
https://vine.co/v/5eVOw5Yg23j
Bullpen says SIT DOWN!
Whoo boy, the Indians bullpen has been looking sharp. Andrew Miller struck out three batters in the seventh inning, which summed his overall tally to nine straight outs recorded via the strikeouts (Let that sink in). Dozier was so impressed with Miller’s offerings that he gave him an involuntary bow after his swing (see below).
https://vine.co/v/5eVMXutOO9U
Unfortunately, Mauer would end the streak in the eighth when he harmlessly grounded out.
Bryan Shaw would work quickly through his outing with help from Davis (see above). Cody Allen would strike out two in his first inning of work. The only issue on the evening was Terry Francona decided to let Allen go a second inning. After working a full count with two outs and no one on base to Mauer, Allen would tire. Mauer walked. Plouffe singled. Sano walked in an eight pitch at bat.
So, who would be the hero to emerge from the bullpen to face noted Tribe-killer Max Kepler with the bases loaded in the top of the 10th inning? Zach McAllister was the man for the moment, of course. Many fans of the Cleveland Indians panicked, but there were some who believed in him.
Z-Mac has got this one
— michael bode (@mgbode_WFNY) August 30, 2016
Z-Mac’s last nine appearances had seen him give up a single run in 10 and 1/3 innings pitched (0.84 ERA). He had 13 strikeouts and hitters were a meager .262/.295/.381 against him. Small sample size and all, it had been nearly two months since the disaster version of McAllister took the mound. Yet, the Z-Mac equals Heart Attack player is the version fans remember most. So, despite having 70 percent odds of success (based on most recent OBP against Z-Mac), my comment looked crazy.
McAllister threw seven straight four-seam fastballs 95-96 miles per hour each as he induced Kepler to fly out to Davis in center.
All the bunts
Abraham Almonte took a drag bunt for an infield single when Brandon Kintzler could not come up with the ball in his glove. Chris Gimenez fouled off two bunt attempts before lining a single into right field. Davis fouled two bunt attempts off before grounding to third base where Sano missed the tag on Almonte and threw too late to get Davis at first. Sadly, the umpire had an obstructed view and called Almonte out. Worse, replays did not show conclusive evidence to overturn it and MLB rightfully upheld the call.
Five bunt attempts, one successful and it was the one when no one was on base. (When a team only needs one run though, it can still be the correct call.)
When is bunting the correct call? Well, there are win expectancy charts that help determine that scenario. A big part of the equation though is where the defense is playing. There are times when a poor, slow hitter should lay down the sacrifice. Last night, Sano played right at the edge of the dirt, which is about in between playing the bunt or the normal swing.
Sabermetrician and MLB consultant Mitchel Lichtman explained in depth why it didn’t really matter what Gimenez did last night based on Sano’s positioning. There are some assumptions made, but basically Sano was playing where one could reasonably assume the win expectancy (WE) was even between swinging or bunting based on Gimenez factors (speed, hitting prowess, etc.) and defensive positioning. Since it was a walk-off situation, the WE is the only thing that matters here as one run wins the game (whereas there can be some argument about one-run versus multiple runs in earlier innings, which WE accounts for but leaves room for debate).
Here is the thread if you are interested in the full details:
Let me explain game theory wrt sac bunting using tonight's CLE game as an example. Bottom of the 10th, leadoff batter on first, Gimenez up.
— Mitchel Lichtman (@mitchellichtman) August 30, 2016
Walking off with the win
I’ll just put these here. Enjoy.
https://vine.co/v/5eVhvmOjzVT
https://vine.co/v/5eVMm6JQpE0
17 Comments
Not being able to properly execute a bunt infuriates me as it is something that my high school coach drilled into us. Even moreso when it’s your leadoff hitter who should know how to bunt better than anyone.
If you are not a good hitter, then you should spend an inordinate amount of time learning to bunt properly. The fact that every batter attempted to bunt with a stiff back last night drove me insane.
All worked out even better, but yeah, it was infuriating.
#BuntingIsForLosers
Tuned in during the tenth when bases were loaded lol….Abe was safe. Replay system seems to get a lot of the calls wrong. We needed that one last night.
I fully believe that you should need conclusive evidence to overturn a call on the field. While, I agree Abe was safe, I also don’t think the angles gave that evidence. Sucks how it went, but those are the breaks. I’m glad it didn’t cause the outcome to change.
Added game theory explanation from Mitchel Lichtman now. Follow that thread to see when it makes sense.
I was close…
Agreed that you need the conclusive evidence, just funny how the camera angles have been SO unkind to us this year. That one play at home with the mystery angle that only NY saw, Chiz’s (non) catch, and now this.
Oh yeah and I still think the play at home and the non-catch were both garbage. I have doubts about MLB having “additional views” and believe it is just a rear-coverage statement.
Given that we beat out four plays at first base (all legitimate), it did seem like we were catching some breaks of luck that would eventually pan out. Glad they did.
You had Z-Mac and Gimenez being the heroes?
I said I was close, I had Gimenez being the hero when we pinch hit Lonald James Chisenthorpe for Robebo Perez.
Did not making any calls on the pitching.
after his first two foul bunts…the odds of Gimenez coming through had to be about as bad as it gets. So, extra credit for that one.
Tribe batters are so tight right now you know they’re scoreboard watching. This is the Twins’ playoffs and if the Tribe can just scratch out some wins against a team that’s forever jumping on their back like a pesky, combative little brother I think they’ll be fine.
Max Kepler is one of those guys who looks like a can’t-miss young star when he’s on the opposing team, the way he gets good ABs and generally carries himself in the box. Just the way Matt Lawton and Rajai Davis used to look to me when they’d come into town.
If you are not a good hitter you should spend even more time on improving the best way to help your team. Making even more outs is not that way.
Being capable of sacrifice bunting improves WE in some late game scenarios especially if you are a poor hitter. So, yes, you should be helping your team by being able to bunt.
I’m anti-bunt overall, but am willing to work with the numbers on it.
I get that, but you can improve WE over the course of a season by a lot more by spending that time in the batting cages, studying film, or sacrificing chickens, whatever actually helps you hit the ball better when you swing away.
Sure, which you should also be doing (as long as those chickens are pre-fried from KFC).
Inordinate for bunting is like maybe 5 minutes at the end of each BP session. Should be enough.