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August 16, 2016Josh Gordon returns to practice, shows plenty of promise
August 16, 2016A day game in August is not supposed to feel like a mid-October night. However, in what could have been the last game played by David Ortiz in Cleveland1 , the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Red Sox staged a tense contest between two teams vying for the opportunity to compete in many more of these battles after the regular season completes. The Red Sox bested the Tribe, 3-2, with the help of an Ortiz home run, but the result was secondary to the atmosphere.
The pitching matchup saw a familiar name — if not face — return to Cleveland. Before Andrew Miller, there was Ubaldo Jimenez as a prize obtained at the trade deadline in 2011. However, to acquire a prized asset, good prospects must be returned and Drew Pomeranz was the projected left-handed starter that was handed over to the Colorado Rockies. While Jimenez would struggle with the Tribe, he did manage to have his best season in 2013 to help push the Indians into the AL Wild Card game. Pomeranz flamed out with the Rockies but found new life with the Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres. 2016 has not been as kind with the Red Sox, but Pomeranz found enough to pitch a gem (7.2 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 SO) against the team that drafted him No. 5 overall in the 2010 MLB Amateur Draft.
The offense outside of Rajai Davis, who hit a shot that went over the center field fence about as quickly as possible, struggled for most of the game. The Tribe did put up an effort to rally in the eighth and ninth innings, however. After only managing a single run in the eighth, the Indians had a chance to tie or win the game in the ninth with two men on and no outs, but Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis struck out, and Abe Almonte gave back the run he prevented with a great throw from right field earlier by popping out to the second baseman to end the game.2
On the other side of the ledger, Josh Tomlin continued his struggles with the long ball. No pitcher in baseball has given up more than the 29 home runs Tomlin has given up in 2016. And  true to form, Tomlin gave up two home runs in the sixth inning. Other than those shots, he kept the Indians in the game and shut down the Red Sox even making a nifty grab on a line shot headed for either his head or center field.
Boston doesn’t matter anyway, yet
The Red Sox only matter tangentially to the Indians as far as the prospects of playing October baseball are concerned. Due to an overall underwhelming year from the AL Central, the Indians only need to navigate the Detroit Tigers in order to win the division and jump past the single elimination portion of the MLB postseason. To boot, those Tigers lost to the Kansas City Royals on Monday night to remain five games back in the division.
Sure, a No. 1 overall seed would be better for both the ability to play a team that burned a pitcher on the Wild Card game as well as homefield advantage, but, first and foremost, the Tribe needs to ensure they get to play October baseball. To do so, only the Tigers matter.
So, here is how the two teams stack up.
Starting Pitching
Both the Tigers and Indians have had some injury concerns with their starting rotation lately. For the Tigers, Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Pelfrey are both on the 15-day DL. The Indians have Danny Salazar on the 15-day DL as well, but he is hopeful to return to make his next turn in the rotation on Thursday.
Regardless, the surprise of the season for the Tigers has been the adequacy and sometimes brilliant makeup of their staff. Michael Fulmer will butt up against his innings limits come September, but he has been a huge reason the Tigers have come this far. Justin Verlander has returned to anchor their rotation with solid outings.
The Indians were expecting to have a completely dominant rotation, which they have been at times. Some recent struggles and injuries, however, have somewhat muted those thoughts. The Indians have one of the best starting groups in MLB and look to continue to utilize them to put a stamp on making it into October. Furthermore, despite the Indians falling below expectations and the Tigers far exceeding their own, the Tribe still holds the advantage in starting pitching, and expects to have that gap widen as the season comes to a close.
Bullpen
Both teams have relatively healthy bullpens as only Tommy Hunter (15-day DL) for the Indians and Drew VerHagen (60-day DL) for the Tigers is currently injured of men on the respective 40-man rosters.
On the season, the rebuilt Tigers bullpen has helped them navigate wins throughout the season. The Wilson-duo (Justin and Alex) have logged a ton of quality innings with Shane Greene, Kyle Ryan, and Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez giving the Tigers good innings too. If the Tigers are going to earn a place in the postseason, then the bullpen will have to continue doing their job.
The Indians have had many struggles with their bullpen in 2016. Too much of the pressure has been on Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw to log more outings each than any individual Tiger bullpen arm has pitched. Dan Otero and Zach McAllister, at times, have given some support, but more often the bullpen has underwhelmed, which is why Mike Chernoff made the move to acquire Andrew Miller at the trade deadline.
The Indians hope the Miller acquisition is enough to bridge this reliever gap between them and the Tigers along with the rest of the AL. Considering a postseason bullpen only needs four arms — along with the fifth starter for possible long relief — and the Tribe appears now set with Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, and either Dan Otero or Tommy Hunter. The fact Terry Francona has been willing to use Miller in the highest leverage situations throughout games is also encouraging.
Positional Players
Injuries have not been kind to either club when it comes to their positional players. For the Indians, Michael Brantley is about to undergo shoulder surgery that will effectively make 2016 a lost season for him. Yan Gomes is dealing with a shoulder injury of his own but hopes to return in September.
The Tigers are in even worse shape with Nick Castellanos, Jose Iglesias and Cameron Maybin each on the 15-day DL. Detroit does not have nearly the depth of the Indians, so missing a starting third baseman, shortstop, and outfielder is crushing to their prospects.
And, about that positional player depth? The Tigers still have some top players in Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler.3Â Their quality drops off quickly after those two players.
Conversely, the Indians have six players with a fWAR of 2.0 or better, and Carlos Santana is knocking on the door with 1.9. Contributions from partial seasons of Lonnie Chisenhall, Abe Almonte, Marlon Byrd, and Brandon Guyer have made it seem as if the Indians have had seven or eight average to above average players in their lineup the entire season. The incredible depth — and yes, it is quite incredible — is why the Indians offense is the second-ranked run-scoring unit in the American League. And, it absolutely destroys what the Tigers have.
Last Word
Hmmm, so the Indians have the better position players, better starters, added Andrew Miller to make up the gap in the bullpen, and are healthier. Oh, and the Tribe has a five-game cushion to begin the race to the end of the regular season.
Sorry Detroit, the Indians are simply the better team.4
- Perhaps you heard about his upcoming retirement? [↩]
- Abe Almonte Run Prevention (AARP) score for this game therefore totalled zero. [↩]
- Just think about how worse off the Tigers would be if they had kept Prince Fielder who retired this week rather than flipping him for Kinsler. [↩]
- I did it. I made it to the end of the Detroit Tigers comparison column without needing to mention that the Indians have beaten the Tigers 11 out of 12 times they have met this season. Yaay! Oh, wait a second. Doh! [↩]
40 Comments
Bite the big one, Detroit.
They should just hand us the division now. Numbers, and all.
Well, Detroit sort of did with how they approached the trade deadline.
Those numbers are actually a little, dare I say, comforting!
But I’ve got to say that I don’t think DET was intentionally waving the white flag at the deadline. Pretty sure old pizza boy would’ve blown his wad of cheesy dough and picked up some pieces if they had any talent whatsoever in their farm system. Fortunately for us, their cupboards were barren.
I wonder what talent-rich farm system Dombrowski will trade away after Boston?
I’ll be okay when the Indians are in the Division series. Not a minute before. 27-17 is not impossible, and I want nothing to do with tiebreakers.
Nope. Not impossible. A bit improbable given their current injury status but a few teams laying down in September could help them to it.
The thing is, I think 23-23 is a bit improbable for the Indians too. I expect better.
No worries on not feeling comfortable beforehand as there have been plenty of collapses over the years from many different teams. But, when I look at the AL, I see 5 teams that are clearly separated from everyone else. Texas (though they keep getting riddled with injuries), Toronto, Cleveland, Boston, and Baltimore. Houston would be next. Then, Seattle and Detroit.
So, given that ONLY Detroit is even in our division and they are not among the top teams in the AL, I am a bit confident we’ll make it to the ALDS. And hey, if I’m wrong, then anyone can feel free to throw this in my face. I don’t mind.
Yep. That’s why I want nothing to do with a tiebreaker. I do think that the Indians are the better team, and I don’t want the Tigers to have any chance of being in the playoffs above us – and if we win the division, they’re out. One-game series in baseball are heartbreakers, and while we might be 11-1 against the Tigers this year, that “1” is still a “1.” “1” is all it takes.
Go away, Tigers. Just. Go. Away.
I would never dare tempt fate this way, Bode. Our reverse spell over Miggy is bound to wear off soon.
If I end up Cam Newton at the post-Superbowl presser with my hoodie pulled over my eyes and nearly in tears, then so be it. For this is the path I have chosen.
Yep, no need to tempt fate. It’s like a sports version of Stranger Things, and Miggy is the Demogorgon.
(and yes, we’re the nerds)
But we also have Francona, who does things like let our worst pitcher face guys like David Ortiz for a third time in high leverage situations, and wants guys like Michael Martinez on the roster.
I’m down with that.
The road will go through Detroit. Where’s TB2?
I like our chances with Tito, warts and all.
It’s a good lesson, though. Always wear protection.
Tito did not strike out twice and pop to 2B when we had no men out and runners on 1st and 2nd.
Francona doesn’t do everything by the numbers and he certainly has his affinity for marginal utility players and bullpen guys, but I’ll still take him on the whole compared to most other managers we might have right now instead.
Juan Uribe learned that lesson the hard way. “No more babies”
Sure, Francona’s not the only one to make mistakes. He just does it a lot. I’m not particularly seeing the need for Francona. His plusses mainly come down to a well-maintained locker room. To do that, he had to do things like let Bourn bat leadoff over and over again, bat Aviles 400 times a year, let Brantley and Swisher determine their own injury-recovery schedule, not tell Lindor to stop bunting, Masterson vs LHH in big spots, Giambi, Martinez, Manship, and more deferring to vets well past their expiration date over and over again. I’m glad the players have a BFF in the locker room that they can write notes about in their diaries when they get home. But we could really use a guy who knows how to manage a game.
Which is a shame given his alleged gene pool…..
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/572cbe4a7da24fb3cbe8134f/t/578a3e2a5016e131ea75e92a/1468677685664/Jose+Ramirez+-+VFTT?format=750w
I think 97 wins is where they end up. That is based purely on the void between my ears..
As odd as this sounds, there are going to be a couple of teams with the potential to win it all, not even make the playoffs.
Uh… did I see Chris Giminez included with the bullpen?
You missed the unknucle knuckle ball?
Sure, if things fall OK for Houston, then I could see them winning but might not make it at all due to the glut of teams.
A higher total than I have but why not!
he’s also the reason we were able to sign Napoli and Rajai (reportedly). there’s a balance and you know I agree with you on what you are noting above.
he has shown a willingness to adjust though. using Miller in high leverage, platooning guys to best create a lineup w/ offense, aggressive baserunning starts with an edict from the manager.
you act like all Tito does is prop the guys up with encouragement. he’s more than that.
I saw him pitch but are we really going to count his stats in with the bullpen?
This team platooned heavily before Francona came here, and earlier just this year, Shaw, despite some issues, had an iron-grip hold on the 8th inning. So I have trouble giving Tito much credit for those two things.
He also reportedly was the reason we could sign Swisher and Bourn. Frankly, I find most of the player-signing arguments worth little. There seems to be no reason to believe any one of those guys took anything but the highest dollar offer for their services. The highest bid was what won their services, not Francona.
I’m not trying to suggest that all Tito does is prop guys up with encouragement. But that is primarily what he does, and a big way he does that is by going back to vets time and time again, where even amateurs can see the guy doesn’t have it.
Bryan Shaw is the most interesting case-study. Should the Indians have given up on him? His horridness has been limited mostly to 2 weeks of the season. But, Tito also uses him so much that you’d expect it is over-use (which might cause those bad times?). I honestly do not know here, which is why it is so intriguing.
As if they know? Really, all the can say is they watched him throw and he has good stuff, or he doesn’t.
I think they were quick to spot problems with Salazar and act on it. Took their time with Carrasco. The move to the BP for Bauer at the beginning of the year was a good one. They’ve thrown in the towel on Anderson, when he basically bailed them out last year. The only thing you can argue about in the BP is House Crockett or Armstrong McAllister, basically roster spots 23 and 24.
Last year Urshela’s glove at third made a huge difference in the season. They stuck with Almonte when he came up this year, they brought Lindor along at reduced speed.
The bottom line is this team is 6 games up and they have repeatedly humiliated clubs in multiple series this year, including the WS Champs.
I don’t know what more you want out of this staff. The criticism here is really unwarranted for the handful of examples that have made any difference.
I think it more that you technically have to sort of thing. We’re talking Bode here, no second guessing. 🙂
I think teams should have very short memories when it comes to non-elite relievers. Those guys flame out quickly.
And he may have been horrid only a few times, but he still puts on a few too many baserunners for my liking even when he eventually pitches out of his own jam.
well, now w/ Miller, we are about to see what happens when he doesn’t pitch ‘all-the-time’ which I am excited about. we’ll see if it makes a difference for him overall.
The Indians have one of the best starting groups in MLB and look to
continue to utilize them to put a stamp on making it into October.
I only sort of slightly criticized the starting rotation in that they had shown a few dents in the armor lately and the Tigers have gotten almost the same value from their own. Please do not take it thinking that I don’t still believe they are among the best rotations in all of baseball (I do believe they are) and am fully expecting recent struggles to be a mere blip (though I have additional Tomlin concerns but I love him proving me wrong over and over).
By staff I was referring to Tito and the FO, and mainly to Steve’s comment.
ah, whoops
I do wonder how much of the Miller trade was about forcing Francona’s hand in regard to using Shaw.
“I don’t know what more you want out of this staff. ”
I want fewer obvious glaring mistakes like Tomlin vs Ortiz.
I get that it’s hard to separate Francona from Callaway, but haven’t we given the latter the vast majority of credit when it came to the pitchers? Urshela was replacement level, I’m not sure exactly what you want to credit them for with Almonte, and in regards to Lindor, a playoff spot may have been possible if they picked up the pace some. I’m not seeing a whole lot of benefit in regards to the hitters.
That they are six games up now doesn’t mean they couldn’t be up more if they were better tactically. That they are playing well and have a good record doesn’t mean that things couldn’t be improved.
Yeah, so, Detroit just isn’t too good this year. One of least risky “bold” predictions I could have made.