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August 17, 2016The Cleveland Indians (68-49) are a bit good at this game of baseball. The Chicago White Sox (56-62) gave the Indians their best shot with their ace left-handed starter Jose Quintana on the mound, but the Tribe still won the game, 3-1. Jason Kipnis (3-for-4, one run, one RBI) was the offensive star for the game as the Indians used eleven doubles and singles to plate three runs, which was more than enough for a locked-in Corey Kluber (6 IP, 1 R, 7 H, 2 BB, 7 SO). Andrew Miller and Cody Allen were breathing fire as they closed out the game with three perfect innings.
The Indians now have a six game cushion on the injury-plagued Detroit Tigers and their odds of winning the AL Central increased to over 90 percent.
What is going on with all the home runs in MLB this year?
The Indians did not hit a home run on Tuesday, but the Tribe has already surpassed their 2015 total that has seen Mike Napoli, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and others approach or eclipse their previous career highs. The occurrence is not limited to the Indians as MLB has seen an overall uptick in home runs1. There were 4,186 total home runs hit in 2014 across MLB. There have been 4,115 hit already in 2016 with six weeks of baseball left to play.
Writers and researchers from across the MLB spectrum have begun digging into reasons why the uptick might be happening. There are many theories, but none have been able to pinpoint the exact source of the power surge yet. Here is where the discussion currently sits.
Are the baseball juiced?
The most common theory has been that MLB juiced the baseballs. The juiced ball theory started from the fact that MiLB does not appear to have the same influx of home run rate increases that MLB does2. The leagues get their baseballs from different places. There are several different variations to how a baseball can be juiced, but the main idea is that the elasticity and/or bounciness of the baseball would be increased as to propel at greater speeds off the bat.
MLB does their baseball testing via Baseball Research Center at University of Massachussetts-Lowell with no information on sample size, impact speed, or variance released to the public. Physics of baseball researcher Alan Nathan3 has taken upon the task of attempting to prove this theory.
In one set of experiments, he fired baseballs at from an air cannon at an ash board to measure the different COR (Coefficient of Restitution = final speed / firing speed) values to demonstrate how even a seemingly insignificant deviation in COR can result in enough exit velocity increase to change many fly balls into home runs.
Nathan did find through the Statcast data that typical home runs (those hit at the 25-30-degree launch angle) have an increased exit velocity in 2016. The line drive home runs (those hit under a 10-degree launch angle) did not see any such increase. Given the inconclusive findings, stating the ball is juiced merely due to no other known explanation would be folly. More testing and data-diving is needed.
Are the hitters getting smarter?
The ever-evolving chess match between pitchers and hitters has been on the pitcher’s side of the ledger for so long that the hitters were bound to adjust. Statcast might be the tool that is helping them do so.
about a 25% increase in the rate of batted balls between 20 and 35 degrees, where most HRs are.
— Brian Mills (@BMMillsy) August 15, 2016
16 clubs threw 13% up/in FB strikes & 21% down away strikes. Pitch angle matches bat path.
— Perry Husband (@EVPerryHusband) August 16, 2016
The data revolution keeps coming at baseball in waves with the latest being that Statcast has the ability to demonstrate items such as typical home run launch angles. If hitters know the arc they need to hit the easiest home run and they know what pitches to wait on to get it with their particular swing, then hitters can reverse engineer home runs. And, hitters are hitting the ball with better launch angles in 2016.
Tyler “Napalm” Naquin adjusted his swing so that he now waits on low changeups and pulls them with power. Carlos Santana has a swing more suited for high fastballs. Cleveland.com’s Zack Meisel just detailed how Jason Kipnis has shortened his swing, switched to a heavier bat, and is waiting on inside pitches to drive.
What else?
Steroids have been considered and ruled as likely not the cause. Temperature, pitch velocity, influx of talent, pitch height, and pure old dumb luck have all been ruled out by several different researchers.
The strike zone is another potential culprit as the down and away portion is having less strikes called while the higher portion of the strike zone is having more called strikes. The changes though were not thought to be drastic enough to account for the larger increase in home runs and fly ball exit velocity.
Last Word
There are many questions, and most answers are nuanced. The fact that the research is on-going and there are people diving in to empirically prove or disprove these theories is incredible. Is it a Three True Outcome adjustment? Is it hitting gurus making adjustments to the high-heat pitching gurus of late? Is it a willingness to swing hard more often? Or to swing hard at specific pitches? The tools now exist to get closer to definitive answers for the questions, which makes it an exciting time to be a baseball fan.
Acknowledgements
Incredible thanks to Alan Nathan, John Roegele, Brian Mills, Ben Lindbergh, Rob Arthur, Perry Husband, and the many others who allow those of us reading to gain a better understanding and appreciation for the sport.
16 Comments
Well, it was an El Nino spring.
Temperature, pitch velocity, influx of talent, pitch height, and pure old dumb luck have all been ruled out by several different researchers.
😉
I have a theory that cannot be disproven.
Then a theory it shall remain.
Maybe not steroids, but some other form of enhancement, in my opinion. Cheats are always ahead of the police.
Guys take drugs which makes them healthier across the season. So instead of getting 600 at bats where you just mail it in 150 times because you’re tired, injured or both – now you can get 600 at bats where you never mail it in. The extra 150 at bats, for a slugger, translates to an extra 10-12 homers.
I also think it has to do with guys just being stronger, and pitchers pitching faster.
Lastly, there is no downside anymore to a guy who hits .225 with 40 homers. We all know what that player contributes, and we have come to understand that front offices are ok with it. So nowadays, when a guy strikes out he doesn’t really care or feel sheepish; he doesn’t feel the need to adjust because he knows, at some point soon, a fastball is going to run into his bat, and he’s going to be swinging hard. Thus, more homers.
(The average batting average in 2006 was .269. In 2013 it was .253)
I highly suggest the Rob Arthur piece. He has some great arguments about why PEDs is not likely the case (or at least not the pre-eminent cause):
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/steroids-probably-arent-causing-baseballs-power-surge/
As far as pitching faster, perhaps if it causes some placement issues it could, but there has also been some great discussion on EV (exit velocity) and how the hitter is more responsible for it than the pitcher (pitch speed is a small component).
The last item is referred to as Three True Outcome baseball and it is quite possible part of the cause though how much is the real question.
I’ve read it. I’m always skeptical. In the 2016 season there have been 9 PED suspensions. That’s more than any other year except for 2005. To me, that speaks volumes.
But his point about the ball is excellent, and it is reminiscent of the golf revolution when balls became multi-core with precision dimples.
Last theory standing becomes law right? Process of elimination, whatnot.
Well, that is not how it is supposed to happen 🙂
What about rain, or lack thereof?
“We all know what that player contributes, and we have come to understand that front offices are ok with it.”
I think this is it. Rob Deer types are more likely to hang around nowadays.
The steroids argument doesn’t make sense to me. If cheats are always ahead of the police, that means always, including the past few years when offense was down. And we know that players of the 60s and 70s took PEDs like candy, and offense was down then. I’m not seeing the correlation between PED use and more offense.
Always good to read things with a critical eye. The point that it was spread evenly across all players is what caught me the most. I mean, there is little chance all players are using the same PED the same way and it is affecting them all the same, right?
That is the biggest indicator to me of the juiced ball. But, then we need to explain the LD EV not increasing as they should with change in COR. I do think that it will get figured out and appreciate that people are attempting to do so (imagine if this fervor was around in 1994 – accountability is a good thing).
Listen here Bode, you cannot argue with science.
That’s a good point, Steve, about correlation. My stab at it is that guys were likely being more careful, knowing the cops were hot on the trail. Absolutely qualitative in assessment, but that’s my take as a skeptic.
It is a great GIF
At that point though, we’re just retrofitting the argument to say what we want it to say. We should be skeptical of how clean these guys are, but that doesn’t mean assume they used.
I think the big problem here is that we don’t really have a great grasp on how a high PED use game looks compared to a clean game. Guys have been using for a long time now, and have been using a variety of substances. Sometimes it’s the 6’4 225lb guy who hits a bunch of home runs, sometimes its the quick 5’8 160lb guy. Sometimes its Rafael Betancourt spotting 89 mph fastballs on the outside corner.