A Sweep for Mom: Cavs-Hawks, Behind the Box Score
May 8, 2016Cavs Narratives, fastbreak efficiency and Virtual Reality: While We’re Waiting…
May 9, 2016Positive “vibes,” much like momentum, are supposed to be imaginary constructs. There is no way, for example, that the good feelings generated by the Cleveland Cavaliers’ dominant sweep of the Atlanta Hawks should have any impact on the fortunes of another Cleveland team playing a completely different sport. As has been a trend over the past decade, however, the Indians—for whatever reason—are a better team on days when a Cavs playoff game is going on. And yes, I actually researched it.
This week, the two Ontario Street neighbors delivered same-day victories—the mythical “double-win”—a whopping three times, as the Tribe finished up a 5-1 homestand with a 5-4 win over the Royals on Sunday, shortly before LeBron and Co. eliminated the Hawks down in Georgia. Last May, things played out quite similarly, as the Indians and Cavs rallied off three straight Double-Wins during the Eastern Conference Finals, also against the Hawks (with help from the Reds and Rangers).
Not convinced of the cosmic nature of it all? I wouldn’t expect you to be. So here are some more cherry-picked facts to support my ludicrous hypothesis.
- During the LeBron James era of playoff basketball in Cleveland (2006-2010, 2015-Present), the Indians are 54-37 on days in which the Cavs are playing a postseason game. That’s a winning percentage of just under 60 percent.
- During those same seven seasons in question, the Indians overall winning percentage is more than 10 points lower, at .485 (485-514).
- On the 91 occasions since 2006 that a Cavs playoff game and an Indians game were played on the same day, there were only 13 times in which both teams lost—the dreaded, soul-crushing “Double-Loss.” By contrast, there have been 32 Double-Wins, which are akin to emotional chocolate cake.
- When the Indians are home at Progressive Field on the same day the Cavs are playing a postseason game next-door at the Q, there is a bit more risk for distraction, as the Tribe is 13-10 since ’06. The Cavs are 16-6.
- Both of the Cavs’ series-ending losses in the NBA Finals (2007 vs. San Antonio and 2015 vs. Golden State) were quickly and easily forgotten thanks to big Tribe victories those same nights. On June 14, 2007, Victor Martinez homered and Jason Stanford got the W in a 3-2 win over Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins in Miami. And last June 16, Trevor Bauer out-dueled Jake Arrieta 6-0 at Wrigley Field. Yup, that actually happened.
Now, if you want to be a buzzkill, you might say that the recent success of the Indians (15-13, 10-4 vs. the division) has a boatload of nothing to do with Kevin Love’s jumper or Gateway magic, and a lot more to do with simple improvements in health and execution. Or just Paul Bunyan-esque brute strength.
https://vine.co/v/iQIMFjivl36
Sunday’s rubber match victory over KC—the scuffling champs—featured just about everything that was lacking during Cleveland’s miserable slide of one-run losses a week earlier. Along with a solid effort from Josh Tomlin (now 5-0!), the club got a mix of power (solo homers from Carlos Santana and Mke Napoli), timely hits (RBI knocks from Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall and Marlon Byrd in a huge fifth inning), stellar defense (Francisco Lindor with another game-saving play in the seventh), and excellent outings from the much-scrutinized back-end of the bullpen. Bryan Shaw, once dead on a slab, has been revived by the Lord of Light and placed in knee-high pink socks. He has allowed one earned run in his last 9.1 innings of work. Here, Shaw and Yan Gomes combine for a strike ’em out, throw ’em out in the eighth inning Sunday.
https://vine.co/v/iQIO5MJ1E1w
Two of the other men mentioned above—Dr. Smooth and Chiz—are just now finding their grooves after missing most of April. Lonnie even got his first career start in center field on Sunday, an interesting move that would have sounded as odd as “leadoff man Carlos Santana” a short time ago.
With Tyler Naquin temporarily back in Triple-A after Cody Anderson’s ill-fated call-up on Saturday, the outfield has gone from disturbingly thin to having almost too much depth. Suffice it to say, Brantley certainly seems to be at full strength out in left.
https://vine.co/v/iQIMZlM5KrH
The starting pitching, meanwhile (outside of Anderson), has been strong, but not quite in the manner most imagined. While Corey Kluber has been better than good, the 1-2 punch he was supposed to form with the injured Carlos Carrasco has been temporarily usurped by Tomlin and Friday’s winner Danny Salazar. Josh’s srikeout numbers are down this year, but he’s 5-0 with a 3.72 ERA and his usual low WHIP (1.10). Salazar, meanwhile, is very much in the (super early) Cy Young conversation. Through six starts, he is allowing just 4.3 hits per nine innings—tops in baseball. A 1.91 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 are also, ya know, pretty decent.
The weekend series had some down notes, too, of course. Saturday’s 7-0 wipe-out loss was a perfect storm of Cody Anderson still having long ball problems and Ian Kennedy pitching out of his mind. Yan Gomes remains 0-for-May, or so it seems. Overall, though, the vibes are overwhelmingly positive at the moment. And my central takeaway from the series was more of a philosophical question:
Can Francisco Lindor do what Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, and Corey Kluber haven’t quite managed to do, and galvanize the wider, casual fan base behind his superstardom?
https://vine.co/v/iQIbdAglELg
Seeing Lindor elevate his game from the heights of last year, I am increasingly convinced he’s the perfect guy for the job. It’s not just that he’s hitting .324 or making ridiculous highlight reel plays at a dizzying pace. The two standout Lindor moments for me this weekend both came Sunday, and neither was of the obvious web gem variety like the vine above.
In the seventh inning, after Zach McAllister got into a huge jam with runners on second and third, nobody out, and the Indians clinging to a 5-4 lead, Frankie charged a slow hopper and wound up gunning down the tying run at home plate. The infield had not been playing in, and when the ball was hit, the whole stadium seemed to concede the run. But Lindor changed the game with his quick decision and razor sharp execution.
https://vine.co/v/iQPmXET7v2m
The second moment was much simpler. It was the final out of the game, a weak liner directly at Lindor that he easily secured to give Cody Allen his eighth save. A baby with no hands could have caught the ball, so the play itself meant little. It was how Lindor reacted to the Indians taking the series from the Royals that stood out.
https://vine.co/v/iQPq7Ix2l3X
He caught the ball, pounded his fist in triumph, and ran over to Jason Kipnis for some celebratory high fives, a huge smile on his face. It’s strange how unique this reaction looked amid the sea of traditional, congratulatory postgame gestures. A regular season game in early May, just one mile in the proverbial marathon, but Lindor was electrified. He wanted to win. Needed it. He’s the kind of guy that changes a franchise in more ways than any Vine-worthy circus play can illustrate.
And he clearly plays even better when the Cavs are in the playoffs.
21 Comments
I caught this game from the couch yesterday and came to the startling realization that it is at least, possibly more, fun to watch this team in field as it is to see them bat. I have never been a fan of pitcher’s duels, nor defense in general, but Lindor is absolutely must-watch out there.
Agree with all about Lindor. After Vizquel left we had to return to the normalcy of a 3-hopper trickle into centerfield, or a bad bounce eat up a shortstop. But this kid is more than the great defense and emerging offense. It’s possible he’s one of the chosen ones, the guy who’s not only the team’s best player but joyful and charismatic, a team’s leader and heartbeat who relishes the game’s pressure moments. Puckett, Dykstra, David Ortiz, Thome … those guys are rare gems. (I thought Baerga was also going to be that guy but …).
We all better enjoy this kid, appreciate the early stages of what this may be.
In baseball, have to enjoy em when you can. Players like him do not come through here all that often.
There’s nothing better then watching good baseball. Were doing alright. Hopefully the blacksox will come down to earth.
Also love the addition of Napoli. Finally some right-handed power.
or anywhere. he’s just so amazing, it becomes suprising when something doesn’t go his way. there was a smoking grounder straight up the middle that no SS in the game was getting as Lindor was shifted to the 3B-line a bit. He was five feet away from it when it passed by and he was visibly upset at himself as it coasted into CF.
He lives and dies with every play, yet has enough balance to instantly forget the past plays and focus on the next.
I’ve been waiting a long time for this team to put up some wins in the AL Central, and a 5-1 homestand against Detroit and KC is as welcome as it gets. Particularly impressive is that the team has done this with an ice-cold Kipnis (his OPS is barely, and I mean barely, above .700 for the season) and Brantley still rounding into form after missing all of Spring Training. And a Carrasco-less rotation as well, of course.
If those three get on a roll by the end of the month, there’s no reason we won’t contend for the division all year. Thus far, aside from the White Sox, the AL Central has underperformed. Detroit’s rotation is awful and KC’s is not much better. The rest of the AL is underwhelming as well. I’m sure some team (Rangers?) will break out of the AL West and the Blue Jays will eventually emerge in the AL East. But so long as the White Sox regress to the mean, the Central and both Wild Cards are definitely in reach for this team.
Fun facts: Frankie Lindor was born a little over 7 months AFTER Progressive Field opened.
He did not celebrate his first birthday until about two weeks after the Indians’ 1995 World Series appearance.
I’m not sure how to look this up, but I have to imagine Chiz is in a very small group as someone who played his first game in center field after nine years in pro ball and at the age of 27. That’s not how things are supposed to work.
Also: while they haven’t set the world on fire, it’s nice that the Free Agent class of 2016 (Napoli, Davis, Uribe, Byrd) have all contributed. I guess you could call Cowgill a bust, but at $1M that one doesn’t sting too badly.
While Justin Upton, Todd Frazier, A-Jax all have struggled. All can turn around in the long season, but, to this point, Indians FO is looking smart.
baseball-reference has a way to look this up if you play around with their event finder. I don’t have time at the moment, but believe you are correct in that it is quite rare.
It was a smart move to bring in five low-to-mid level guys rather than one expensive guy. Hope it keeps working out.
Yeah, I looked on there for a second before deciding it’s not worth my time obsessing. Need to do actual work.
Don’t forget Yan is struggling mightily. If he can get it sorted out by the time Cookie comes back… hoo… watch out.
I am kind of over Uribe and his “defense”, but the rest have exceeded expectations.
A couple of weeks ago, Clayton was calling for Shaw’s head, mentioning “serious problems.” I understand his ego won’t allow him to do a complete about-face so quickly, but failing to mention Shaw’s 5 outs is missing the keys to the game. If I were a baseball writer, I would think carefully about writing a rant about a proven reliever based on such a small sample size.
Writers should write about what they feel and point to what can and cannot be shown statistically. The most important part there though is acknowledging when you are wrong.
Clayman’s exact quote: “It will be interesting to see how the pen re-arranges itself in the months ahead. Cody Allen had some horrific outings in April last year. Not saying Shaw is Cody Allen. But I’m not just going to bury him already.”
Did he mean Clayman? I thought he was talking about some other Clayton guy (no, seriously).
If he meant Clayman, I was far more harsh on Shaw than Andrew ever was even going back to Spring Training.
I certainly don’t recall calling for Shaw’s head. I remember making fun of him quite a bit, for entertainment value. But this is what I wrote in my recap following one of his epic April meltdowns:
“Shaw was NOT a ‘ticking time bomb’ coming into this season. In three
years as an Indian, he’s averaged 74 appearances, yes, but he’s also
posted a 2.93 ERA, a 2.77 SO/W ratio, and a 1.16 WHIP over that span,
with a 3.5 WAR. He’s still only 28 years old without much in the way of
nagging injuries, and while his velocity did dip a little in 2015, his
overall production—K rate, walk rate, flyball rate, etc—held firm. I
guess expecting a Shaw collapse for the sole reason that he’s been too
good for too long is sort of rational in the world of bullpen lifespans.
But if it’s a three-year track record vs. one game in April, I am not
selling my Shaw stock just yet.”
… Now, you could certainly accuse me of waffling when I conceded “concerns” after his next blow-up, but I hardly consider mild anxiety an extreme position.
I also did make a point of Shaw’s recent dominance in the article above, including Sunday (though not in depth).
I might be old school this way, but I actually have ZERO problem admitting when I was wrong and/or stupid about something re: baseball. It happens routinely, because like everyone else on the internet, I’m not Theo Epstein. I also don’t enjoy waiting in the bushes for the right moment to jump out and tell someone else their opinion wound up wrong, which is why I’ve never been very successful on Twitter. …. Anyway, this new rant does at least prove your point about my ego problem. And I’m still mildly concerned about Bryan Shaw, if that’s okay.
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