Discussing the Browns’ 2016 Draft Class: WFNY Roundtable
May 3, 2016Browns’ regime (finally) drafts multiple wide receivers
May 3, 2016In the weeks before the 2016 NFL Draft, many expected the Cleveland Browns to end up with a potential franchise quarterback. However, those predictions were based on the team selecting in the No. 2 overall position with quarterbacks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz available for selection. After trading out of that prime position for a bevvy of lower selections, the Browns still tabbed a quarterback, but with the No. 93 overall selection in Round 3 when the Browns wrote Cody Kessler’s name on their draft card.
While the pick was initially panned by many analysts, WFNY felt it was important to reach out to one of the more respected NFL Draft quarterback gurus to get an expert opinion on what Kessler might provide inside the confines of a Hue Jackson offense. InsidethePylon‘s Mark Schofield was gracious enough to take the time to respond and provide his analysis in detail.1
Collegiate Experience
Is there an advantage Kessler has coming from the USC offense to the NFL? How much closer are the Trojans to having a pro-style offense than other programs and what are the components that will help Kessler in his transition?
Mark Schofield: Kessler certainly has an advantage due to the offensive scheme he ran at USC, his experience, and the route concepts that the Trojans ran, and that I believe the Cleveland Browns will implement as part of their offense under Hue Jackson, which we will get to in a minute. The term “pro-style offense” is a bit of a tough one to pin down these days with so many offenses using different components of different schemes, including incorporating spread elements. So when evaluating quarterbacks, I tend to focus on their traits at the position and try to project how what they do well will translate to the NFL game.
When you watch Kessler and that USC offense, you see a quarterback who is very adept at operating both under center and in the shotgun. He can make very quick decisions in the short passing game, and makes throws with timing and anticipation. His footwork is usually right in synch with – or ahead of – the receivers in the route structure, so he can get the ball out quickly and ahead of time, putting his WRs in position to turn, make the catch and get yardage after the reception. All core components of a West Coast scheme.
Does it give added confidence Kessler has three years of collegiate experience (41 game started), maintained a high accuracy throughout (above 65% each year), and a fantastic TD:INT ratio (20:7, 39:5, 29:7), or are there worries he never took the big step forward after his breakout second starting campaign?
Schofield: I think so, and I think this fits well with the draft philosophy the Browns displayed last weekend. They seem to have placed a great deal of stock in collegiate production. Being careful with the football is important, and having those very solid TD:INT ratios would catch anyone’s eye.
Do you believe Kessler is helped by the turmoil at USC the past few seasons? Having had two head coaches and two interim coaches (one of them twice) as two were fired in-season forced him to deal with adversity. Or, is this mitigated by having such a similar offense throughout?
Schofield: This gets to one of the difficult aspects in evaluating players, particularly quarterbacks, from the outside looking in. We rarely get the chance to sit down with these players to pick their brains, get a feel for their mental composure, and uncover their thought process away from the field. But from a distance, when you see a quarterback go through the twists and turns that USC went through during Kessler’s career, particularly his senior season, you have to appreciate how he was able to handle the turmoil.
Any rookie coming to the NFL faces a bit of real-life uncertainty. In many cases they have been the Big Man on Campus their entire lives, but now they’re having to go out on their own, in many cases to a new city, and figure out some real life things. Things like paying rent, dealing with obligations away from the field that take some getting used to for anyone leaving college and entering the workforce. When you add trying to learn a new playbook and deal with the transition off the field, it can be a bit daunting. So perhaps Kessler’s background in coming from this turmoil helps in that regard.
QB Traits
The big question on Kessler is that arm strength and height/size. Is it adequate enough to get by early in the NFL? Is there hope he can add to the velocity on his throws? Does his anticipation help make up for this deficiency or are the intermediate and deep routes likely too much for him to handle when faced with NFL speed?
Schofield: Scheme fit is and was such an important aspect of Kessler’s transition to the NFL. I have no personal knowledge of this, but I would imagine some coaches such as Bruce Arians, who favor a more downfield, vertical passing game, had Kessler far down their board. His arm strength at the moment is not suited for a more vertical passing game. This is one of many reasons I thought he projected best to a West Coast passing scheme. He attacks shorter routes with precision, as well as using timing and anticipation, to throw quick outs, curls, slants and other shorter routes extremely well, all while putting his receivers in position to pick up yardage after the catch.
If he is placed in such a system that focuses on attacking those routes in the passing game, he has enough to deliver the occasional deep shot down the field, particularly when working off of play-action. This is another aspect of the West Coast scheme that fits him. He can throw the deep ball with touch and general accuracy, but if you ask him to challenge a defense by throwing the deep out route from the left hashmark to the opposite sideline, that is not his strong suit.
How is Kessler working through reading defenses pre-snap?
Schofield: This is another area where both his level of experience, and the offense he ran at USC, help him and will likely ease his transition. In all of my film study I rarely – if ever – noticed him open up to one side of a field or the other and questioned the decision based on the coverage scheme I was seeing. Many progression reads start to one side of the field or the other based on the coverage in the secondary.
Here is an extremely simplified example: Imagine the offense is in 11 personnel with three receivers to the right and a single receiver to the left. Depending on the play the QB might first read his progressions to the right if he sees Cover 2 or Cover 4, but might open to the left if he sees straight man coverage, or perhaps Cover 1, to try and get a one-on-one matchup on the backside. I honestly don’t recall – and don’t see such an example in my notes – of Kessler opening up to one side of the field or the other and me questioning that decision. Now, I don’t have the playbook so I can’t be positive, but to me that shows he has a great understanding of a defense in the moments leading up to the snap of the ball.
How is Kessler at working through progressions?
Schofield: Again, he seems very solid in this area, even when under pressure (which we’ll get to). There can be times when he is perhaps too conservative, and this tends to happen when things are going poorly, but on most occasions he can work through receivers, make his reads, and make the right decision. This red zone smash route is one example. There are others that I have written about that we will get to as well.
One of the more intriguing concepts you note about Cody Kessler is that he is “Calm in the Cauldron.” Can you explain what this concept means and how Kessler exhibits the quality?
Schofield: If hitting a baseball is the toughest thing to do in sports, then playing QB is second-toughest. Ted Williams argued that hitting is the toughest, and I won’t sit here and argue with the Splendid Splinter, but having some experience with both I know just how tough they are. One of the toughest aspects of playing QB is just how fast everything happens, with guys on the other side of the football trying to cause you physical harm.
Staying “calm in the cauldron” is something I describe as the ability of a QB to not panic when under pressure, or when facing the blitz, and to go through the offensive design and make a play with the football. It can be easy to, in the face of pressure, panic and throw the ball away, or break the pocket and try to escape with your feet, or to immediately check the ball down and just plain get it out of your hands: I know, I’ve been there. Kessler excels at this, particularly in his ability to keep his eyes downfield while the pocket breaks down around him, and make a play in the passing game. This article displays just two of the many examples of Kessler showing this ability. It’s hard to keep looking for a receiver when you are trying to avoid a sack – and stay healthy – but that’s the job of a quarterback, and that’s a task that Kessler does very well.
A similar trait you noted on Kessler is that he is the poster child for “Flow within the Structure.” Can you explain what this concept means and how Kessler exhibits the quality?
Schofield: This gets us into the ideas of on- versus off-structure, and I’ll just hit those ideas for a moment. A quarterback plays on-structure when he’s making plays from the pocket within the strict design of an offensive play. It doesn’t look flashy and it doesn’t cause you to jump off the couch with excitement, but these are the throws on 3rd and 8 that keep drives alive in many cases. Now, playing off-structure are those moments when the pocket or the play breaks down and the QB “needs to make something happen.” Think of Johnny Manziel or Vernon Adams, running around and finding someone late in the play for a huge gain. Those are the plays that get you jumping off the couch and spilling your drink.
Now, some evaluators (and I’d bet some coaches) often prefer one to the other. As a matter of full disclosure, I like to see quarterbacks excel on-structure. The reason for this is that in the life cycle of every quarterback, there comes a time when you cannot get away with the wild and crazy plays you used to pull off before. Maybe you’re transitioning to a higher level of play and the players around you are just faster, so you can’t get the edge like you could a year before. Maybe Father Time is catching up to you. Whatever the reason, if you can’t pull off the off-structure stuff like you could previously, can you do enough on-structure to keep the offense moving?
But there’s also a mix of the two, which Matt Waldman described as “flow within structure” in a video he did on Kessler, and is a term that I saw as well when evaluating the QB. That’s when you do enough “off-structure” to extend the play, but still operate within the design of the play and execute as necessary. Kessler does that, very well. In this video piece I take you through one such example of the QB facing a pocket that breaks down, and he has the opportunity to perhaps gain some yardage with his legs. But he keeps his eyes downfield and returns to his progression reads late in the play, pulling the trigger at the last moment before crossing the line of scrimmage, and throwing a touchdown. That’s flow within structure. The ability to keep a play alive yet still run the offense as designed, making little adjustments as necessary to execute the play.
Am I missing any of the main positive or negative attributes of Kessler above?
Schofield: I think the main aspects have been covered. I cannot stress enough Kessler’s ability to make well-timed, anticipation throws. A perfect example of this comes from this piece, illustrating how Kessler can throw the quick hitch route. The ball is out before the receiver even makes his break, so when the WR turns the ball is on him and he can make the catch and get upfield before the defense even has a chance to react. That leads to YAC – and wins games in the NFL.
Professional Transition
Given his attributes, can he thrive in a Hue Jackson offense? Does Jackson utilize enough West Coast components?
Schofield: Quick answer? Yes.
Right when the selection was made I was a bit curious to see how the fit would work. But then I took some time this weekend to go through Cincinnati’s 2015-2016 season and watch some of their offense, and having gone through that I’m confident enough that Hue Jackson implements enough West Coast elements in the offense that Kessler can implement at an early state. Even some of the deeper elements that Jackson used last year in Cincinnati, such as four verticals, are concepts that Kessler can run and have even been highlighted in these answers.
He has enough arm strength to hit open receivers running down the field, and experience in these concepts, so that if Jackson asks his rookie QB to execute the West Coast plays, while incorporating enough vertical concepts that Kessler can do to keep a defense offense, this marriage should work. But if Kessler is asked to consistently hit the deep out against man coverage, or to throw 15-18 yard dig routes between defenders, that is not the best fit for what he does well, and this could end badly.
What NFL quarterbacks would be a good comparison for Kessler?
Schofield: Due to the offense he ran, what he was asked to do within it, and the qualities above, Kessler reminds me a bit of A.J. McCarron whom Hue Jackson had developed and coached with the Cincinnati Bengals. Is that an apt quarterback comparison? What might be a better one?
I think that is a very good comparison. Watching the Bengals on tape post-Andy Dalton’s injury gives you a good flavor of how Kessler might operate under Jackson. Watching Kessler I always got the feeling I was watching a more talented Colt McCoy. He might not blow you away watching him, but he runs the offense well and does not make a ton of mistakes.
What is his long-term value to the Browns? Where does he project to be in the league and was it worth a third round selection?
Schofield: Working backward, I think he was certainly worth a third-round selection, and I’m not just saying that because I had a third-round grade on him. Even if his ceiling is that of a long-term backup/spot-starter in the NFL, that has value in this league. Here is a thought exercise for you: Take a 53-man roster and then rank every position from 1 to 53 in terms of value. Where would back-up quarterback rank? Now, it probably varies from team-to-team depending on their roster, but for most you’re probably talking about the 25th most important player on the roster. If you can get someone who can serve in that role for the next four years – or more – with a third-round pick, don’t you make that move?
Put it another way: Look at the 2015-2016 Dallas Cowboys and ask yourself how important QB2 is.
So even if Kessler’s ceiling on the Browns is that of a long-term backup/spot-starter, he has value and brings value to Cleveland. Now, if he gets to work under Jackson for a few seasons, and gets to run a West Coast scheme that fits his traits best? Perhaps his ceiling is a little higher.
Closing
Is there anything else you would like to say?
Schofield: I was high on Kessler, perhaps higher than most, so it might not be a surprise that I’m more optimistic about this fit than others. But that’s the tricky part about quarterback evaluation. If playing the position is difficult, trying to evaluate the position from afar is downright impossible. NFL teams get it wrong every year and they have access to information that we on the outside could never dream of obtaining. But even with those caveats, from where I sit I am high on Kessler the quarterback, and am optimistic on his long-term future with the Browns.
What is Inside the Pylon and who is Mark Schofield?
As most NFL Draft nerds know,2 InsidethePylon is an incredible resource of information with many authors who dive into the game tapes break down the film and walk the reader’s through not only what they believe about prospects, but the actual footage which led them to these beliefs. The in-depth breakdowns are done in a way that can help a beginner understand the nuances of the game, while providing incredible insight to even the most attuned college football follower. Mark Schofield is their quarterback expert who was a four-year letter winner at quarterback and situational wide receiver (ala Braxton Miller) at Wesleyan University. The former lawyer is now a best-selling author on college football including his latest book 17 Drives: College Football’s 2015 Season, One Game At A Time that details the narrative of the 2015-2016 college football season through the story of 17 individual drives. When he isn’t writing compelling books, he is breaking down film to share about quarterbacks.
If you are interested in following the NFL Draft closer, then you really should be following both InsidethePylon and Mark Schofield on twitter as well. Cleveland fans will just have to forgive him for living in the state of Maryland (hey, no one is perfect.).
32 Comments
Stability at the QB position is our key to a winning record. I think we may have found just that. Maybe not this year but for the long haul. I see the plan at this pick and love it. In Hue we trust.
Hue knows what it will take to make him successful?
I didn’t think much of Andy Dalton when he was picked. Or Joe Flacco. He had Jason Campbell playing at a pro bowl level and AJ Maccarron looked respectable (5th round pick) off the bench last year. Hue has had way more success than failure with QB’s under his watch. I think this was Hue’s pick. I also trust him to pick a QB over about any GM we have had in the past decade and a half.
Trust me I want RG3 to start this year. I hope he plays the full season and if he doesn’t I’d like to see McCown. Kessler is not ready just as Colt McCoy was not. But as the team develops this guy has a good chance to be ready.
Great stuff from Mark here. I think Kessler has a chance of being a solid quarterback in the Browns’ new offense. I really like his fit with the wide receivers the Browns drafted.
really great read. A couple of comments, and a couple of questions if you don’t mind.
Not a big fan of the WCO, but get that it would be concepts in a larger design.
Backup QB is No 25, until it’s not. Then it is No 1. Worth a 3rd round pick, real issue is did they take him too soon. Personally, with all the picks they had, whatever. I’m good with it.
RGIII and he seem to have about as different a set of skills as imaginable. How do you see Hue putting together an offense that could accommodate both of those guys? With both being development projects, how are they going to get the reps to improve specific areas?
Good stuff Mike and Mark.
I don’t think having some differences will matter much. Different packages within the same offense can accomodate both skillsets and those reps can be accomplished the same way Kessler would have gotten reps (if he assumes backup duties) anyway. More in August, less during the year.
Hate to go to the most obvious example, but it works so well. Steve Young and Joe Montana were both WCO QBs w/ different skillsets. If an OC is willing to think about it and play to their strengths, it shouldn’t be an issue.
Great, Michael.
Thank you sir though I just let Mark do the heavy lifting here.
Are there awards for sports blog posts? This should be nominated.
Thank you, WFNY was blessed to have Mark agree to this article.
Yeah, that was really interesting and informative. Annnnd…it made me feel better about the pick. So, mission accomplished. 😉
Triple-threat, thanks.
great discussion !! … how can you not at least like this pick ?? i was interested in seeing some of his deep throws & what his completion % was on the deep throws … the last clip answered that.
maybe seeing his arm-strength on a 20-yard out / sideline pattern …
Mark and I did discuss 15-20 yard out patterns and one line about it did make it into the above text that summarized his thoughts on it:
He can throw the deep ball with touch and general accuracy, but if you ask him to challenge a defense by throwing the deep out route from the left hashmark to the opposite sideline, that is not his strong suit.
excellent … nobody’s perfect … not even goff or wentz..
Really interesting read. Big thanks to Mark for taking the time to participate.
+1 to that sentiment.
Thank you for getting this together. Great read.
Missed this earlier.
Great interview. You’ve been killing as of late Bode. It’s particularly nice when you guys get input from people outside the site.
Thank you, appreciated.
Thanks. It was fun playing Letterman; posing what I hoped to be interesting questions and making sure I stayed out of the way of who everyone would actually want to hear from.
Not to suggest this is the way it happened… but this seems as plausible a thought as any, perhaps more-so. HBT runs their analysis and Kessler lights up like Times Square. HBT goes to Hue and says “Of all our criteria, this guy kept coming up towards the top… do your homework on him”. Hue is impressed with what he finds… teamwork achieved… Browns draft Kessler.
It is consistent the whole “reach” narrative of Kessler, Louis, and DeValve.
Given Kessler’s accuracy and his “less than stellar” arm strength he looks like he could be a reliable game-manager type QB. And given what the QB situation has been in CLE for all these years, a game-manager QB would be a godsend. (Take a look at the amount of praise Hoyer was receiving before the usual breakdowns of everything.
With hope RG3 can be decent, and Kessler can learn, and if/when injuries happen Kessler can come in and keep the ship sailing.
Sigh – Big difference between arm cannon and average. Kessler has an average arm, not weak. If you look at the Unbelievable arm strength of Cardale, who threw in the low 60s on EPSN (and 58mph from his knees), Kessler is in the 55-56 range. There are plenty of QBs drafted below 55. I believe Kessler is in the Wilson range on speed.
Great resource on Combine throwing –
http://blogs.ourlads.com/2016/03/02/quarterback-ball-velocity-at-nfl-combine-2008-2015/
Look at the #s and remember that Cardale threw 58 from his knees and 62-63 standing. Off the charts.
a few notes on those numbers:
-Cook had the worst velocity
-Goff had a higher velocity than Wentz
-Kessler had the same velocity as Winston last year
That being said, these are all a minute sample point of data for what teams measure. Still useful though.
He also developed Carson Palmer into a Heisman winner and #1 overall while OC at USC.
I think Hue has his way of doing things and he will expect all QB’s on the roster to meet somewhere in the middle of their collective talents. He will spend the time to coach them, not with an iron thumb, on this until they prove they cannot do it all. He’ll make the minor and appropriate adjustments to his own scheme to fit their respective talents.
Like the film and Mark said, Kessler will not be throwing from sideline to sideline but should be just fine working half the field on those routes.
Kessler will obviously be better than Hoyer when the pocket breaks down and staying in design of the play.
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I’m late to the party on this, but great work here. Felt like many of the questions were exactly the sort of things I would have asked, and Schofield’s responses are far superior to a lot of the boilerplate “analysis” I’ve seen on the interwebs.
Honestly, and this isn’t Ohio State homerism talking, I would have felt better about Cardale Jones.
With a rampaging athletic machine like Corey Coleman the newest featuer of our offense, a large, powerful passer whose primary strength is his accuracy is best on mid-range and deep throws would be preferable to a dink-and-dunk West Coast guy; and a receiver who blows the stack off the top of defenses is an effective pairing with a QB built like a brick sh*thouse with a fast, Roethlisberger-style scramble game. Also, as a backup for the oft-injured RG3, you want a guy who can slot in, make throws, and not get hurt while doing so.