Mike Pettine discusses his biggest regrets
April 27, 2016What if the Browns used all of their picks on Ohio State Buckeyes?
April 27, 2016The NFL mock draft business is a tricky one. Trades, unseen medical reports, un-reported background checks, and psychological profiling are among the items kept close to the vest by NFL teams, which play a relatively large factor in determing each team’s draft boards. Outside of a few leaks and rumors (often done purposefully to mislead the narratives by teams), those in the media writing mock drafts do so with scan information on these factors. Sure, one can break down the tape and list out who they believe are the best football players, but many good football players fail to have what it takes to make it in the NFL. So, mock drafting is doing so knowing you will be wrong.
It does not make it a useless exercise though. It provides an output of information from which the writer (and reader) can gain insight and knowledge into the team needs and player strengths and weaknesses. While it is more of an academic exercise than a predictive one, it allows those watching the draft to see the Browns drafted wide receiver Paul McRoberts and remember he’s the Southeast Missouri State guy. So, one can be happy the Browns drafted a receiver with some good size and hands, or be worried about the 2014 Lisfranc surgery and the fact he’s only played against a lower level of competition.
See, everyone who dives in on this NFL Draft stuff develops favorites. There are players who are commonly seen as end of first round picks when they seem to exhibit all of the talent of a Top 10 player. There are guys listed as seventh-round or UDFA who appear on tape as good as the mid-round picks. Even the NFL teams themselves are guessing on which of the players have the requisite skillsets and will adjust the best to the play at the highest professsional level. Here are the players I believe are being under-valued (and over-valued) for each round.
For simplicity, I am going to utilize FoxSports Peter Schrager’s full 2016 seven-round NFL mock draft because he puts a ton of time and effort into diagnosing players and everyone is going to be wrong anyway. So, might as well use someone I appreciate as the baseline.
Round 1
Under-rated:
- Jared Goff, QB, Cal – Yes, he is going to be the first overall pick, but I have had him as a no-doubter first overall pick since the college football season.
- Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB, Clemson – I see him as a Top 10 guy, while most see him just somewhere in Top 20. I don’t get it because he should similar value to Joey Bosa.
- LaQuon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss – Again, he’s a Top 10 guy for me, not low teens to in-the-20’s pick. He is far more explosive of a playmaker than given credit and has the size, hands, and aggressiveness for it to translate.
- Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss – Ole Miss and off field issues go hand-in-hand, but without them he might be the top-rated defensive player in this draft. If a team is comfortable controlling those, then he can be a steal.
Over-rated: Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State), Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia), Noah Spence (OLB, Eastern Kentucky), Connor Cook (QB, Michigan State)
Round 2
Under-rated:
- Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State – He is not Brian Robiskie. In fact, you won’t see too many Buckeyes on my list as I tend to be too hard on them, but there is much to like about Thomas’ skillset.
- Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame – Only listed out of respect for who the player once was. Medical reports seem to be showing that he won’t ever be that player again and he has a lengthy recovery from nerve damage to accomplish.
- Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana – We do need to replace Mitchell Schwartz and we might be able to get late first-round value with a mid-second round pick.
- Keanu Neal, S, Florida – Gators secondary was excellent and he was a big reason why. Able to effect QBs reads with ability to cover the field.
- Kenny Clark, DE/DT, UCLA – Perfect mold for 3-4 DE if we don’t take Buckner in the first-round.
Avoid this scenario: pick No. 8 Ronnie Stanley, OT ; pick No. 32 Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame – if the Browns let Mitchell Schwartz and Travis Benjamin go in free agency just to replace them with these extremely similar skillset players high in the draft (and without the NFL proof of play), then I will be greatly saddened.
Over-rated: Christian Hackenberg (QB, Penn State), Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame), Su’a Cravens (LB/S, USC)
Round 3
Under-rated:
- Kyler Fackrell, LB, Utah State – He is a fringe first-round guy for me as he is crazy athletic, dynamic, and has great instincts.
- Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia – On tape, he was the Bulldogs best linebacker though will be likely drafted later. He’s one of those guys who just seems to play football the correct way. Would love to have him.
Over-rated: Nick Vannett (TE, Ohio State), Dak Prescott (QB, Mississippi State), Isaac Seumalo (C/OG, Oregon State), Joe Dahl (OG, Washington State)
Round 4
Under-rated:
- Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana – He doesn’t stand out off the field for measurables, just on the field for production. This kid can play.
- Deandre Houston-Carson CB/S, William & Mary – He has everything we need in a corner. He is the value buy at a position that doesn’t always require a high-round investment.
- Scooby Wright, LB, Arizona – I am so in the bag for Scooby Wright. He has Daryl Washington written all over him and Ray Horton has the perfect system to take advantage of his skillset. It requires Kirksey being able to handle the strong-ILB spot though.
- Tyler Matakevich, LB, Temple – Red-headed big thumper? Yes, please.
- Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers – He was constantly the only weapon and he came through. Big and fast enough, though not elite in either.
Over-rated: Everyone picked on Day 3 of the NFL Draft is a huge risk (but also has earned the right to have their name called), so no reason to besmirch their names here.
Round 5
Under-rated:
- James Bradberry, CB, Samford – Has all the size and instincts a NFL DB needs (played mostly zone though so some work to do).
- William Henry, DT/DE, Michigan – He would need more development, but could mold into an eventual starter.
- Connor McGovern, OT/OG, Missouri – nasty wrestler who will put people on their backs.
- Thomas Duarte, TE/WR, UCLA – I see him as a potential Marqus Colston type receiver.
Over-rated: Everyone picked on Day 3 of the NFL Draft is a huge risk (but also has earned the right to have their name called), so no reason to besmirch their names here.
Round 6
Under-rated:
- Jalen Mills, S, LSU – Fractured his fibula and tore apart his ankle ligaments in August last year. But, rather than mend for his draft stock, he came back and played. There is no way this tough player who also happens to be great at reading the ball and has ability in coverage when needed lasts this long.
- Kyle Murphy, OT, Stanford – A potential Day 2 pick in the sixth round would be splendid. He has starter potential.
- Harlan Miller, CB, Southeast Louisiana – Ray Horton Jr. should love this guy for his scheme.
- Willie Beavers, OG/OT, Western Michigan – I watch him and envision a seamless transition to the NFL, but almost all boards have him going late. I don’t know what I am missing (or perhaps they are the ones missing something?).
- Ben Braunecker, TE, Harvard – Hard to put him with this group above, but the Crimson are a TE factory.
Over-rated: Everyone picked on Day 3 of the NFL Draft is a huge risk (but also has earned the right to have their name called), so no reason to besmirch their names here.
Round 7
Under-rated:
- Wendell Smallwood, RB, West Virginia – One-cut runner without a ton of burst, but someone who will latch onto a team and have a long career for giving his all and doing enough to help a team.
- Parker Ehinger, OG, Cincinnati – Basically, I look for OG who play with an edge – he does.
- Darion Griswold, TE, Arkansas State – Uber-athletic guy who can split out wide if needed too.
- Bryce Williams, TE, East Carolina – Loved watching him. He has great footwork and is good at boxing out in the red zone.
Over-rated: At this point in the draft, players are just hoping to see their names across the screen. There will likely be a few UDFA surprises, but it is better to have the team invest an asset/draft pick to feel some sort of obligation to your development.
WFNY Joe Gilbert’s 2016 NFL Draft Coverage:
Safeties | Cornerbacks | Inside Linebackers | Edge Rushers | Interior Defensive Linemen | Offensive Tackles | Interior Offensive Linemen | Tight Ends | Wide Receivers | Running Backs | Quarterbacks | Big Board
44 Comments
Mock drafting is the art of rationally and futilely devising a list of predictions that doesn’t have a chance in hell of being even remotely accurate.
i think brandon doughty is good 3rd rd value.. not sure if that makes him over/under rated.
i doubt treadwell drops as far as people say, feels like smoke. (would love him though.) but i would be most happy to take a flyer on nkemdiche in the second.
finally #teamstave in the seventh and also #teamnevercook.
Sure. But, it is also assessing team needs and player skillsets to create a probability spectrum analysis.
Good to have you in the comment threads again.
I have not seen Doughty as high as the third round, so you would consider him under-valued.
I agree on Treadwell, it has to be smoke, right? Unless there is off field transgressions NFL teams know about (because Ole Miss).
I’m going with Kevin Dodd as underrated.
Ask Alabama about this guy.
Good point, he was awesome that game (and in others).
I’m going with Sione Houma as my super sleeper.
He was totally ignored by Hoke for 3 seasons, then Harbaugh turned him into a beast. Pure old-school fullback.
Can fullbacks be sleepers?
He’ll most likely be an UDFA.
Saint Lawrence the Vicar approves of this message.
His 40 time killed him. 4.63. Again may be smoke. To much good tape to drop too low. Scared of his injuries in 2014?
Where’s Bode’s Big Board?
Curious, Bode: What do you really think of Jared Goff?
You had me at “team needs,” but lost me with “probability spectrum analysis.”
Also, Ole Miss factor
Good motor. Above-average eye speed. Excellent toe spacing. Good intangibility.
That’s Joe’s baby. We attempt to provide different stuff for y’all rather than just our versions of the same. You know, exactly what Kiper and McShay do NOT do.
Props for digging up the toe spacing. People really under value it.
Better to have had and lost then never had at all.
You catch more flies with honey . . .
Yes, statistics back that up.
Willie Henry is 6 foot 3, 310 pounds,freakishly strong, uses his hands well and does not allow linemen to get “into his body”. He was doubled often last season and still showed the ability to get into the backfield and make plays. He can play inside in a 4 man front or on the end in a 3 man front. If he’s still around in the 5th, thats a great value. At one point, in January, Kiper said he has “first round type talent, depending on his workouts”, for whatever thats worth
And, because I know some people worry about these things, please remember where he went to high school (Glenville). Id think Glenville mitigates the Michigan factor (tongue planted firmly in cheek)
the purpose of mock drafts is to get clicks and page views.
Hmmm…might also put all Baylor guys on over rated list as independent report on sexual assault cases is impending and supposedly will implicate more players and possibly Art Briles.
Cleveland guys cheering for Michigan are the worst 😉
time will eventually tell , but me-thinks hackenberg & prescott are going to do well … i’m thinking the cowboys will end-up with prescott.
don’t be surprised if we trade down again tomorrow & end-up with treadwell later in the 1st round … and i would really like to see us end-up S keanu neal.
It helps validate the time spent watching college football too
the worst are 7th grade Buckeye fans who give the shy, pudgy 5th grade kid a swirlie because he’s wearing a Jim Harbaugh jersey
I’ve found a good place to get player info are the Cheddar bay threads that used to be on Frowns and now Mike B. is hosting at his site 603brown (the artist formerly known as Jim Kanicki). Gamblers are flippin fantastic info gatherers
hi NATE … i still think he “plays” faster , if there is such a thing … there are other guys with horrid times that can dominate a game … kelvin benjamin is the first one that comes to mind.
i think treadwell will be a fine pro …
I know Im biased, but I really love watching Harbaughs offense. As a ex-FB/TE myself (dont let me fool you, it was jr. high football), it brings a tear to my eye
If hackenberg ended up somewhere with a good QB coach, and was given a couple years to develop, I think he could do very well (and if my Aunt had a pair…). He could be a poster child for the idea of “situation matters as much, if not more than, talent”.
d.clark , c.carter , largent & many others were considered “slow” … if you have good hands & some athletic ability , you should be okay.
For different reasons, I feel the same way about Oregon front 7 players. Their recent history hasnt been very good in the NFL. I know thats coloring my feelings on Buckner, so Im not sure if I really dont think hes going to be good because of tangible reasons, or if its just my bias.
Some of the peeps I follow on Twitter are very VERY high on him. I know he’s got all the measurables, but I just cant help but thinking bust city.
He is much more physical than their recent guys. It is tough sometimes to separate system from player. I have the same issue with OU WRs, USC DBs, ND & OSU LBers, Bama players. Some systems are just setup to make their guys shine more than they can on their own.
also, how you react to bad situations help define who you are.
And also low-life degenerates. I KID, ALL JOKES HERE.
Shots fired!!
thats the biggest problem with Hackenberg, far as I can see. Everything seems to be someone elses fault. If given a couple years in a solid system with good coaching, he may overcome that, but the chances of that actually happening in the NFL are slim
The Sashimetric Computalator picks for every position are also available.
They should come in very handy tomorrow evening.
I’ve got really bad toe spacing, and that’s what’s kept me out of pro sports.
That and all the backroom politics, of course.
Bode…what do you think about Cardale? Given the rampant overdrafting of QB’s that’s taken over the NFL, I imagine he’ll go a lot sooner than he should and therefore be “overrated” for the spot in which he was taken.
I’m personally a pretty big fan but I see him as an obvious project. He’d have a hard time making it here with the hometown expectations on top of everything else, so it’s probably for the best if the Browns pass.
I don’t worry about expectations. That is the organization’s responsibility. But, I don’t see enough accuracy or experience for him to be anything other than a multi-year project. We have the room on the roster and picks to burn, but I’d say 5th or later and someone might be tempted earlier than that.
I would not be surprised if Dak Prescott is their guy in this draft.
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