Nike unveils the Kyrie 2 “Crossover” for the NBA Playoffs
April 15, 2016LeBron James wins Eastern Conference Player of the Month—again
April 15, 2016Thursday night on ESPN, the network put commentators in front of a touch-screen so they could chalk up wins and losses for some of the high profile teams in the NFL. I found this particularly ridiculous and even kind of hysterical as they projected wins for the Denver Broncos, a team that doesn’t really know who will play quarterback yet, unless it happens to be Mark Sanchez—which in that case, it’s still a mystery. And none of this even mentions the fact that this presumes you can provide any intellectual insight into a forthcoming NFL matchup in, say, December, between the unknown Broncos and the Tennessee Titans with their second-year quarterback, Marcus Mariota. So, I promise you I’m not going to go week by week and try to predict the Cleveland Browns’ record.
That said, the schedule, which is chock full of AFC North and NFC East opponents, does deserve to be analyzed and discussed.
First of all, how tough is this schedule based on the previous year’s results of other NFL teams? The Browns are currently thought to have the 21st hardest schedule, which is actually kind of nice compared to previous seasons where poor finishes were rewarded with a gauntlet the subsequent season. Although, it might be a bit of fool’s gold because that ranking includes two games against a “five-win” Baltimore Ravens team and a Cowboys team that will presumably have Tony Romo under center. The rub, obviously, is in Joe Flacco only playing in ten games in 2015, and his Ravens only won one game after he got hurt: a Ryan Mallett-led shocker over the Steelers. The Cowboys were one of the league’s worst teams, struggling mightily to amass wins once Romo went down with injuries. (Vegas, for what it’s worth, has the ‘Boys winning the NFC East this season.)
As many have noted, the Browns start their season road-heavy. Only two of their first seven games are home games. Those two home games are the Ravens and the Pats, so it isn’t exactly a friendly schedule to start off the rebuild. Once the Browns start to pile up the home games, they’re against the Jets and Cowboys, which leads me to my next point.
Which games will the Cleveland Browns be favored to win? A lot can change between now and when the Browns open the season. We’ve got the entire NFL draft to go and a brand new head coaching staff in place, so it is difficult to predict much of anything with the team. That said, if you presume that the Browns are a bottom five (three? two?) team in the NFL and you start to look at the schedule for non-elite teams for chances at wins, it still looks kind of ugly. The Eagles, Dolphins, Washington, and Titans aren’t elite teams, per se, but those games are all on the road to start the season. The first time the Browns play a non-elite team at home (excluding the divisional September 18 Ravens game) is October 30 against the Jets, a team which smoked them a season ago. If the Browns don’t find a way to overcome what will almost assuredly be underdog Vegas odds on the road in the first eight weeks of the season, their first great home game against a non-elite team could be pretty scary in the shadow of Halloween.
0-16 pic.twitter.com/QyvkLQOWFq
— Scott @ WFNY (@WFNYScott) April 15, 2016
While I think it’s crazy to put a win total on this schedule, as a Browns fan I must admit it looks like fans are in for a long season. If someone were setting Vegas lines today, where the latest win total wager line is set at 4.5, it’s hard to identify one in which the Browns would be favored. Maybe that Jets game at home. Maybe the Chargers at home on Christmas Eve. Beyond that, it’s hard to imagine a game in the division that the Browns would be favored in right now, including those matchups with the Ravens as long as Joe Flacco is healthy. And who knows how deep that nightmare could run if Trent Richardson has turned his career around and is rumbling for his fellow Crimson Tide alumnus, Ozzie Newsome.
The Cleveland Browns have a lot of work to do if they want to defy the odds and win some games this year. At this point, even coming close to that win total mark seems far-fetched.
22 Comments
Terrance West is also on the Ratbird’s roster.
1-15.
Nah, I’m just kidding: 0-16.
Tough to argue against a clean sweep with the roster today, but any given sunday thing….. 2 division wins, 3 non-division wins is about the maximum upside I can see.
Call me a cockeyed optimist, but I think they can go 3-13 with that schedule, maybe even 4-12.
God, this team is so depressing. Would it have been so terrible if just once they had decided to spend an offseason fixing problems and trying to win more games instead of creating problems and then trying to fix some of the new problems while ignoring all the existing ones?
We don’t know they will do that. They might fix the existing problems while ignoring the new problems.
Penance for attempting to let Ray Rice get the Ray Lewis slap on wrist treatment.
ANALYTICS!
You’re a cockeyed optimist.
Talent-wise, I peg the current roster in the 1-15 to 2-14 range. That will obviously improve after the Draft, but how much value do 7-10 rookies instantly add to an NFL roster? If we use our No. 2 overall pick on a rookie QB who sits behind RGIII, that’s zero extra wins. A plug-and-play guy like Jalen Ramsey or Joey Bosa at No. 2 plus some wise picks in the second and third would probably add one win at most to the season. Then there’s coaching. If Hue Jackson meets the high expectations as a head coach we (reasonably) have for him, maybe that’s one extra win, too. But even the best coach will struggle with a bad roster and inconsistent QB. So best-case scenario is Hugh +1 towards the final record. The “Any Given Sunday” (AGS) nature of the NFL if a +/- 1 as well (although you usually win one game you should lose and lose one you should win so AGS variances usually cancel each other out.
Soooo, worst-case scenario is 0-16 if our draft stinks, Hugh falls flat on his face, and the AGS Gods continue to hate Cleveland. But I doubt all three variables will fall that way. Best case scenario is 5-11, but I don’t see this team sniffing that record. Bottom line is 2-14 is likely and 3-13 is slightly optimistic. Sighhh.
http://bbsimg.ngfiles.com/1/5391000/ngbbs42a80c6bae55b.gif
That Christmas Eve home game vs. San Diego probably saves this team from 2008 Detroit Lions infamy. Those Chargers will be going from 75 and sunny to 20 and snowy and will already be packing their bags for LA in 2017. I can see us at 0-14 before kickoff for sure (although at Tennessee is a possibility, too).
But with Cleveland’s luck we’ll be in the middle of a record warm spell.
2-14
Don’t sleep on October 2. If RG3 can win the locker room, team will be amped for his revenge game.
I have zero to negative expectations. That said, this seems like a fairly forgiving schedule.
Subjective: I don’t think highly of the AFC East (after the Pats). NFC East is always neurotic.
Objective: Six non-Browns teams have new head coaches. We play five of those. We don’t travel farther west than Tennessee. (No west coast trips at all!)
Opposing QBs will include Taylor, Tannehill, Smtih/Fitzpatrick, Bradford, and Cousins. Depending on how you feel about Flacco, Dalton, Manning, Romo, Winston, and Mariota, there might be more reason to be excited.
If we weren’t the Browns, I’d be excited. (Who am I kidding? 7-9 and enter December as a dark horse wild card contender!)
Anyone else remember a month ago when the team watched Schwartz, Mack, Benjamin and somebody else leave in free agency and the rallying cry was “they went 3-13 with them, they can go 3-13 without ’em!” Apparently not.
We can suck with them. We can suck without them. The glass is half something.
I’m taking the under, even if it’s 0-16. The under could be -16i and I’d still go under.
Based on the comments here it looks half sucks, half pathetic.
No doubt these boards become a form of therapy for long suffering Browns fans with no obvious relief in sight.
“I have zero to negative expectations.”
http://i.imgur.com/UUPxozc.gif