NFL Free Agency: Travis Benjamin to San Diego, Marvin Jones to Detroit
March 9, 2016Indians Confound Again by Passing on Austin Jackson
March 9, 2016Fans are predictable. And, if you’re to believe every fan base in the world, opposing teams’ fans are really predictable. Saying that other teams’ fans are predictable in a disparaging manner is universal—and universally correct, for the most part. Because fans of opposing teams are predictable. And so are you—because you’re an opposing team’s fan to everyone else.
One of our pastimes as basketball fans is complaining that refs are always screwing over our team. If there was a treatise on Sports Officiating, the subtitle would be “… and Injustice for All.” If bitching about referees reflected reality, then each fan’s team would be out-shot at the free throw line by a margin of 50-to-5 every game. This, of course, is not reality.
So, just as Cleveland Cavaliers fans are sure to moan and express twanger (tweet anger) when Houston Rockets guard James Harden seems to shoot 100 free throws without touching another human, other fans are sure to hoot and grype (gripe by typing, or … on Skype, I suppose) when the Cavaliers wear out a path to the free throw line.
When the Cavaliers hosted the Boston Celtics on Saturday, one didn’t have to dig very far in their TL or a Reddit thread to find those loyal to the Celtics bemoaning the crimes of war being perpetrated upon them by the officials (or, as their known in complaint-speak, “these f’ing refs”) as the Cavaliers attempted 34 free throws in 48 minutes of game play. The Celtics attempted only 27 free throws. It’s also worth pointing out that Celtic opponents average 27.0 free throw attempts per game, the most in the NBA (undoubtedly a result of a conspiracy against one of the league’s most prestigious franchises, and not, you know, their intentionally physical defensive style of play). Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are in the bottom-third of the league in both free throws attempted and those attempted by their opponents.
A lot of the animosity lobbed the Cavaliers’ way is derived from the reputation of LeBron James, who on the way to attempting a smidge over 8,000 free throws in his career (fourth most among active players and 16th-most all-time) has accumulated an impressive body of work in fan-hate. Every team in the league has had a game in which they’ve suffered death-by-papercuts at the hand of James from the free throw line (hell, even the Cavs have at this point). The reputation is that LeBron James, superstar deluxe of basketball and product endorsement aficionado, benefits from unfair treatment from the arbiters of basketball justice.
But is that true?
Regardless of what benefits James enjoyed in the mid-to-late 2000s as the league’s premiere athletic freak in an iso-dominated league (James attempted over nine free throws per game for the Cavaliers in every season from 2005 to 2010, topping out at 10.3 per game in 2005-06, just behind current league leader James Harden at 10.6), James has not attempted any more free throws than he should have this season.
How did I come to the conclusion that James attempts no more free throws than he should have? First, it depends on what I mean by “should.” I used it interchangeably with “ought to”1 as in the number of free throws one would receive consistent with “justice, moral rightness, or the like.” So, not as in you “should” eat your vegetables, or you “should” call your mother once a week (you know she misses you). Rather, you “should” get an A if you study diligently and pay attention, or you “should” earn a job if you’re the most qualified candidate.
Because free throws aren’t “free.” The officials don’t blow their whistle when a power forward is pushed in the back and then award foul shots to a guy eating a chalupa on the end of the bench. And while plenty of fouls that result in free throws occur away from basket or even away from the action, fouls are often drawn in the vicinity of the hoop, where the probability of scoring is essentially 1 if the shot isn’t contested. You can make a layup in an NBA game from a Jazzy scooter if it’s uncontested.
As a result, players who take a high volume of shots in close proximity to the hoop tend to attempt more free throws—because defenders foul them contesting shots. Same goes for those who drive toward the hoop in an attempt to generate a high-percentage shot—defenders foul them to prevent them from creating easy layups.
So how does this all look when we chart shots taken near the rim and subsequent foul shots attempted? Funny you should ask.
Using NBA.com statistics and tracking data2 and some arbitrary parameters, I approximated the relationship between free throw attempts and “High-Percentage Shot Opportunities.”3 The trendline on the graph shows the expected number of free throws a player would have attempted based on the number of High-Percentage Shot Opportunities. Players above that line attempt more free throws than expected from the data; the players below attempt less free throws than expected from the data.
I’m not sure the chart really “proves” anything (other than that James Harden shoots an outrageous number of free throws). I think it is compelling evidence that LeBron James does not get kid-gloved by the officials. There may be a variety of reasons James doesn’t attempt more free throws that have nothing to do with bias from the officials: James has lost quickness, agility, and verticality, making his shots easier to contest (hmm not bad); James deliberately avoids contact near the rim (ha!); James genuinely sustains less contact than other players near the rim (rofl); James doesn’t flop slash excessively exaggerate contact (cough Harden cough); defenders purposely keep their distance from James for a variety of reasons (e.g., he is large and fast); James is so physically imposing that he can sustain more contact without an official noticing (it’s like he’s wearing shoulder pads); there is a legitimate double standard with how he is officiated for “game flow”/watchability reasons (the unwritten Shaq Rule); and officials covertly despise the Cavaliers, the City of Cleveland, and my mother (that’s what I’ve been saying!).
While there are a lot reasons James wouldn’t shoot excessive free throws, the numbers show he isn’t getting a free pass.
Even if the chart doesn’t prove or disprove anything, it is fun to make comparisons and observations. For instance, the top two players in High-Percentage Shot Opportunities are Russell Westbrook and LeBron James — two of the most physically gifted athletes in the NBA — and neither shoots an excessive number of free throws based on their ability to attack the basket. Is it a disadvantage to be that physically indomitable?
The table below shows the players with greatest surplus of free throws in the NBA. (The number of actual free throws attempted in excess of the projection.)4 Surprising to no one, James Harden tops the list, having shot nearly 300 more free throws than anticipated. Hack-a-Blank players like DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, and Andre Drummond predictably made the cut. Seeing as “superstar” forwards like Paul George, Kevin Durant, and Carmelo Anthony are all on this list, this is where you’d expect to find LeBron James, who is conspicuously absent. Notably, Cavs forward Kevin Love made this list with 115.8 more free throws than expected. Though exceeding his projected free throw attempts by 56, Stephen Curry was not close to qualifying for the top 20 in surplus free throws, for what that’s worth.
Now, for the players with the greatest deficit of free throws. All of these players attempted far fewer free throws than expected.5 There are a few below-the-rim power fowards (Jahlil Okafor, Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic). The most common qualifiers are small guards, many of whom can’t shoot (Michael Carter-Williams, Dennis Scroder, C.J. McCollum, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague, Tony Parker, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Jackson, Goran Dragic, Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Ish Smith). This may be because these small-ish guards are shorter than Ent-y rim-defenders (who are able to easily contest their shots), they don’t shoot well (so defenders can sag off them to defend them as they penetrate), or because refs hate short people. Kyrie Irving (28th, with 49.1 free throws less than expected), and LeBron James (36th, with 35.5 free throws less than expected) narrowly missed inclusion on this list. And Hey, officials! Can we get some love for Ish Smith??? I mean damn, man! (said in Chris Tucker voice).
What about the teams: Who’s getting screwed? It’s hard to draw any conclusions about official bias based on how many free throws a team shoots above or below their expectations. A team’s free throw totals are highly dependent on the sum of their parts. I’d say that the table below is more a reflection of team playing specific styles or characteristics than it is evidence of some grand conspiracy.
The Cavs are in the middle of the pack (shooting a negligible 11 more free throws than expected), which is frankly what I’d expected. Notably, they’re neighbors with the Golden State Warriors.6 But if you’re looking for broad, sinister plots in the data, the big market teams (both Los Angeles teams, the New York Knicks) are all in the top five in free throw surplus. The Philadelphia 76ers meanwhile, the object of scorn in the NBA for unabashedly tanking, have attempted nearly 400 free throws less than expected.
- From Dictionary.com: “should (v.) – 3. must; ought (used to indicate duty, propriety, or expediency).” [↩]
- Data current through March 7, so it does not include the Cavaliers turnover-tastic loss to the Grizzlies on Monday night. [↩]
- As shown on the chart, I approximated them using the following formula: High Percentage Shot Opportunities = Field Goal Attempts within 5 feet of hoop + .25 * Field Goal Attempts 5-9 feet from hoop + .5 * Total Drives. I picked coefficients that seemed sensible. The trendline was done in Excel, and is linear with the y-intercept set at 0 (i.e., someone with zero field goal attempts and zero drives would attempt zero free throws). I invite anyone to make a better model. But, as long as field goal attempts close to the hoop (probably the most important factor in predicting free throw attempts) are part of the model, the results will probably be similar. It’s worth noting that the model using all three indicators (FGA <5, FGA 5-10, Drives) had a slightly stronger correlation than one using just field goal attempts, which was slightly better than one using just field goal attempts within five feet of the hoop. The differences are small, but I didn’t want to totally ignore drives, either. If anything (if you look at the players who attempted many more free throws than expected), I should have given drives more weight than I did. I’m sure there are better models than the one I chose, but there’s no sense overfitting a bad model, either. [↩]
- Among players who have attempted more than 100 free throws. Notably, this is based on volume, not percentage-over-expected. When looking at percentages with varying sample sizes, the results are admittedly weird. [↩]
- Again, among players who have attempted more than 100 free throws. [↩]
- If you want my non-empirical opinion: I don’t think the Cavs get “screwed” at the free throw line. I have felt for several years, however, that LeBron James plays at a different standard than most. I don’t think it started until he joined the Miami Heat, but I think it has been as evident since. I thought the disparity between how Dwyane Wade was officiated and how LeBron James were officiated was comically distant in the 2014 Finals: Dwyane Wade like a golden retriever, and LeBron James like a Kevlar-plated rhinoceros. I think James deals with the residual effects of that today. As a team, though? I don’t think the Cavs have it bad. I think Kyrie Irving suffers from the same subconscious realities/biases as the rest of the small guards in the table above — but that’s not unusual. Love is adept at getting to the line, and the rest of the Cavs benefit from James’ physicality, so it balances out. [↩]
3 Comments
Fantastic work Kyle.
My biggest beef with refs is when they call a foul that wasn’t a foul. Everybody misses fouls that do occur, and it’s understandable. But it’s not understandable when you call a foul that didn’t happen. If you don’t see it, don’t call it. If you’re not absolutely sure, don’t call it. If it looks like it probably was, don’t call it.
I read a funny line by John Madden when he was coaching the Raiders and yelling at a ref. “You’re screwing us! Screw them too!”
very nice job. This goes with something I began thinking about right after that Grizz game: maybe the biggest difference between Jordan and LeBron is the officiating. I can NOT think of any way that ANY official in the world would ever call Michael Jordan for 3-seconds on a game-changing 4th quarter post move. (It was barely 3, too – we’ve seen much worse go uncalled).
But the refs aren’t afraid of LeBron. Maybe it’s because he whines so much. Maybe it’s because they feel emboldened by their union – who knows? Jordan certainly did his share of ref-berating, and he wasn’t always so on the DL about it. But, for me, I just don’t understand why a guy like LeBron James can’t get a call as often as he should.