WFNY CFP computer ranking: Week 8

Week 8 was perhaps the best college football weekend of 2015 so far. The great thing about college football is, much like a postseason baseball game, the drama of the overall rankings slowly builds throughout the season, making each successive week even more important than the last.

Last weekend saw Group of Five schools Toledo and Temple overcome halftime deficits to keep their undefeated status safe. From the Power Five schools, Alabama squeaked out a home victory over Tennessee with an assist from some Volunteer missed field goals. Duke and Pittsburgh each claimed victory over a lesser conference opponent to move to 6-1, though the Blue Devils needed four overtimes and the Panthers needed a field goal as the clock ran out.

Utah and Florida State were not as fortunate as they fell victim to upset bids against teams which did not even qualify for these rankings. The Utes were man-handled by the USC Trojans, and the Seminoles lost to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on a 78-yard return of a blocked field goal as time expired.

WFNY Computer Ranking Methodology

The full methodology and equations for determining these rankings can be found in the initial WFNY computer ranking, which was after Week 7.

WFNY Computer Rank Reasoning

A pertinent question was raised last week as to what these rankings are supposed to be. Think of them as a simple rating of what has happened thus far in the college football season. They are not perfect yet as some teams will bear out to be better (or worse) than their current resume indicates either due to regression, luck, or injuries.

However, these rankings remove the lens of bias through which we often view college football and only give credit for accomplishments on the field of play. If Baylor and TCU (as will be seen below) refuse to play anyone of significance, then why should they be highly ranked (see: AP and Coaches poll) while LSU, Clemson, and yes, Iowa have all navigated far more difficult schedules to date?

So, please enjoy these rankings responsibly, share them with everyone you meet or follow, and feel free to ask any questions you might have in the comments below.

Eliminated from Contention

Of the 41 teams ranked after Week 7 of the college football season, the highest WFNY computer ranked team to be eliminated from contention was the previously 30th ranked Auburn Tigers, who suffered their third loss of the season to the Arkansas Razorbacks, which left the Tigers at 1-3 in the SEC.

Five other teams also suffered their third indignity; the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Arizona Wildcats, Kentucky Wildcats, Illinois Illini, and the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Canes suffered a defeat so bad (58-0 at the hands of the Clemson Tigers), the only remedy was to fire head coach Al Golden despite an overall 4-3 record. Perhaps university administration had seen the Hurricanes had the second worse profile of all teams with two or less defeats entering Week 8 (to NC State).

Highest Risers

Ole Miss: (+10)
Ole Miss was ranked No. 21 after Week 7, only a mere three points behind 12th ranked Memphis. So, with one of the few marquee matchups of the week against a one-loss Texas A&M team, the Rebels used the win to leapfrog several teams, while Florida State, Cal, and those Texas A&M Aggies lost games to drop behind them.

Oklahoma, NC State: (+6)
NC State rose merely due to the attrition around them. The Wolfpack remain the lowest ranked team, but unlike those six teams who were elminated, they are still ranked.

Oklahoma’s resume was so pitiful that their first win against a team with a winning record, Texas Tech, was enough to give them a goose above some other squads with similarly soft games thus far.

Also: Michigan State, UCLA, Toledo, Washington State (+5)

Steepest Fallers

Florida State (-8)
Lose to a previously 2-5 team, expect to fall precipitously in the rankings. The Seminoles ranking was already somewhat light, so the loss to a bad team was enough to see many teams rise ahead of them.

Florida (-7)
Interestingly, the Gators did nothing over the weekend to warrant a drop. However, they did not gain any points since it was their bye week. Additionally, they lost bonus points as Eastern Carolina and Kentucky started to demonstrate the types of teams they are. Exactly how these rankings are supposed to work as the more learned about each team, the more refined they become.

Also: Utah, Cal, Texas A&M (-5)

Rise of the Group of Five

Memphis is in the top 10, Temple and Toledo now sit in the top 20, and Houston stayed undefeated, while taking a slight fall.¹ Memphis, in particular, is far more deserving than their current No. 16 position in both the AP and Coaches poll would indicate and it will be interesting if the CFP selection committee agrees.

It is a shame the Group of Five cannot figure out a way to stage a championship game to help bolster their ranking (top CFP ranked teams from two different conferences face off). Toledo versus Memphis/Temple/Houston would make fantastic theater and give the winner a bit more clout towards crashing the College Football Playoff.

Big XII only have themselves to blame

A year after Baylor and TCU were lambasted by the CFP selection committee for only having a mediocre out of conference win against Minnesota between them, Baylor and TCU are undefeated in 2015 with only a mediocre out of conference win against Minnesota between them.

The Bears and Horned Frogs exclusion in 2014 was an emphatic statement by the selection committee that the Big XII teams must significantly strengthen their out-of-conference slate if they wanted to compete with teams which have a conference championship game. Instead of adding Houston and Memphis to the conference to obtain a championship game or begging ESPN to help them navigate the difficulties in scheduling good games over the offseason, the teams decided to play the same hands again.

While it is unfortunate for Baylor to have their starting quarterback be lost for the season, it is quite possible it would not even matter as they have held the 107th most difficult schedule with a poor Kansas State team up next (according to ESPN FPI standings). TCU might avenge their 2014 defeat to Baylor, but if Minnesota continues to falter, then their overall resume might fall short.

Pay no attention to the AP and Coaches polls, especially with Baylor. Those polls remember more the 11-2 team from 2014 than the 2015 team who has a resume more similar to Group of Five entrant Temple than undefeated Power Five teams such as Clemson and Iowa.

B1G Dominance

The formulas were not setup in these rankings to give the B1G any advantages. In fact, the SEC and Pac-12 were expected to have some inherent advantages from their often parity-driven conference tops. By the end of the year, it might still bear out as such, but the B1G has certainly proven a dominant force in these rankings thus far.

The main reasons for the high rankings are the pelts that have been placed on the wall. OOC² wins against teams such as Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, and BYU certainly have helped. Also though, teams such as Penn State and Wisconsin have taken care of inferior schedules, which has bolstered their overall resume to date (the old Mississippi school trick for second tier conference teams). Finally, many of the top B1G teams have not yet had their bye week, which gives them an additional game of potential points thus far. Looking ahead, other conferences will likely take over at least a couple of those slots at the top, but for now the B1G reigns supreme.

1. A Houston team with its only losses to Memphis and Temple helps their status at the end of the year. [↩]
2. Out of conference [↩]